Predicting Bacteremia in Children With Cancer and Fever in Chemotherapy-induced Neutropenia: Results of the Prospective Multicenter SPOG 2003 FN Study.

STUDY AIM:: To develop a score predicting the risk of bacteremia in cancer patients with fever and neutropenia (FN), and to evaluate its performance. METHODS:: Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of bacteremia was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. RESULTS:: Bacteremia was reported in 67 (16%) of 423 FN episodes. In 34 episodes (8%), bacteremia became known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting bacteremia at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The reassessment score predicting future bacteremia in 390 episodes without known bacteremia used the following 4 variables: hemoglobin ≥90 g/L at presentation (weight 3), platelet count <50 G/L (3), shaking chills (5), and other need for inpatient treatment or observation according to the treating physician (3). Applying a threshold ≥3, the score-simplified into a low-risk checklist-predicted bacteremia with 100% sensitivity, with 54 episodes (13%) classified as low-risk, and a specificity of 15%. CONCLUSIONS:: This reassessment score, simplified into a low-risk checklist of 4 routinely accessible characteristics, identifies pediatric patients with FN at risk for bacteremia. It has the potential to contribute to the reduction of use of antimicrobials in, and to shorten the length of hospital stays of pediatric patients with cancer and FN.

Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade &gt; or =III vs &lt;III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p&lt;0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (&gt; or =4 mm vs &lt;4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p&lt;0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (&gt; or =60 vs &lt;60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (&gt; or =5 years vs &lt;5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study.

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Algunos factores que inciden en el rendimiento y en la evaluación de los alumnos en las PAAU

The context where the university admissions exams are performed is presented and the main concerns about this exams are outlined and discussed from a statistical point of view. The paper offers an illustration of the use of random coefficient models in the study of educational data. The association between two individual scores (one internal and the other external to the school) and the effect of the school in the external exam is analized by a regression model with random intercept and fixed slope. A variance component model for the analysis of the grading process is also presented. The paper ends with an outline of the main findings and the presentation of some specific proposals to improve and control the equity of the system. Some pedagogic reflections are also included.

Market structure and hospital efficiency: Evaluating potential effects of deregulation in a national health service

In this article we examine the potential effect of market structureon hospital technical efficiency as a measure of performance controlled byownership and regulation. This study is relevant to provide an evaluationof the potential effects of recommended and initiated deregulation policiesin order to promote market reforms in the context of a European NationalHealth Service. Our goal was reached through three main empirical stages.Firstly, using patient origin data from hospitals in the region of Cataloniain 1990, we estimated geographic hospital markets through the Elzinga--Hogartyapproach, based on patient flows. Then we measured the market level ofconcentration using the Herfindahl--Hirschman index. Secondly, technicaland scale efficiency scores for each hospital was obtained specifying aData Envelopment Analysis. According to the data nearly two--thirds of thehospitals operate under the production frontier with an average efficiencyscore of 0.841. Finally, the determinants of the efficiency scores wereinvestigated using a censored regression model. Special attention waspaid to test the hypothesis that there is an efficiency improvement in morecompetitive markets. The results suggest that the number of competitors inthe market contributes positively to technical efficiency and there is someevidence that the differences in efficiency scores are attributed toseveral environmental factors such as ownership, market structure andregulation effects.

The IFNL3/4 ΔG variant increases susceptibility to cytomegalovirus retinitis among HIV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis is a major cause of visual impairment and blindness among patients with uncontrolled HIV infections. Whereas polymorphisms in interferon-lambda 3 (IFNL3, previously named IL28B) strongly influence the clinical course of hepatitis C, few studies examined the role of such polymorphisms in infections due to viruses other than hepatitis C virus. OBJECTIVES: To analyze the association of newly identified IFNL3/4 variant rs368234815 with susceptibility to CMV-associated retinitis in a cohort of HIV-infected patients. DESIGN AND METHODS: This retrospective longitudinal study included 4884 white patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, among whom 1134 were at risk to develop CMV retinitis (CD4 nadir <100 /μl and positive CMV serology). The association of CMV-associated retinitis with rs368234815 was assessed by cumulative incidence curves and multivariate Cox regression models, using the estimated date of HIV infection as a starting point, with censoring at death and/or lost follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 40 individuals among 1134 patients at risk developed CMV retinitis. The minor allele of rs368234815 was associated with a higher risk of CMV retinitis (log-rank test P = 0.007, recessive mode of inheritance). The association was still significant in a multivariate Cox regression model (hazard ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval 1.09-4.92, P = 0.03), after adjustment for CD4 nadir and slope, HAART and HIV-risk groups. CONCLUSION: We reported for the first time an association between an IFNL3/4 polymorphism and susceptibility to AIDS-related CMV retinitis. IFNL3/4 may influence immunity against viruses other than HCV.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain: a clinical prediction score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Bias related to body mass index in pediatric echocardiographic z scores.

In pediatric echocardiography, cardiac dimensions are often normalized for weight, height, or body surface area (BSA). The combined influence of height and weight on cardiac size is complex and likely varies with age. We hypothesized that increasing weight for height, as represented by body mass index (BMI) adjusted for age, is poorly accounted for in Z scores normalized for weight, height, or BSA. We aimed to evaluate whether a bias related to BMI was introduced when proximal aorta diameter Z scores are derived from bivariate models (only one normalizing variable), and whether such a bias was reduced when multivariable models are used. We analyzed 1,422 echocardiograms read as normal in children ≤18 years. We computed Z scores of the proximal aorta using allometric, polynomial, and multivariable models with four body size variables. We then assessed the level of residual association of Z scores and BMI adjusted for age and sex. In children ≥6 years, we found a significant residual linear association with BMI-for-age and Z scores for most regression models. Only a multivariable model including weight and height as independent predictors produced a Z score free of linear association with BMI. We concluded that a bias related to BMI was present in Z scores of proximal aorta diameter when normalization was done using bivariate models, regardless of the regression model or the normalizing variable. The use of multivariable models with weight and height as independent predictors should be explored to reduce this potential pitfall when pediatric echocardiography reference values are evaluated.

Prevalence of hyperuricemia and relation of serum uric acid with cardiovascular risk factors in a developing country.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hyperuricemia has rarely been investigated in developing countries. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of hyperuricemia and the association between uric acid levels and the various cardiovascular risk factors in a developing country with high average blood pressures (the Seychelles, Indian Ocean, population mainly of African origin). METHODS: This cross-sectional health examination survey was based on a population random sample from the Seychelles. It included 1011 subjects aged 25 to 64 years. Blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, total and HDL cholesterol, serum triglycerides and serum uric acid were measured. Data were analyzed using scatterplot smoothing techniques and gender-specific linear regression models. RESULTS: The prevalence of a serum uric acid level >420 micromol/L in men was 35.2% and the prevalence of a serum uric acid level >360 micromol/L was 8.7% in women. Serum uric acid was strongly related to serum triglycerides in men as well as in women (r = 0.73 in men and r = 0.59 in women, p < 0.001). Uric acid levels were also significantly associated but to a lesser degree with age, BMI, blood pressure, alcohol and the use of antihypertensive therapy. In a regression model, triglycerides, age, BMI, antihypertensive therapy and alcohol consumption accounted for about 50% (R2) of the serum uric acid variations in men as well as in women. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the prevalence of hyperuricemia can be high in a developing country such as the Seychelles. Besides alcohol consumption and the use of antihypertensive therapy, mainly diuretics, serum uric acid is markedly associated with parameters of the metabolic syndrome, in particular serum triglycerides. Considering the growing incidence of obesity and metabolic syndrome worldwide and the potential link between hyperuricemia and cardiovascular complications, more emphasis should be put on the evolving prevalence of hyperuricemia in developing countries.

Predicting Adverse Events in Children with Fever and Chemotherapy-Induced Neutropenia. Results of the Prospective Multicenter SPOG 2003 FN Study

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Comparison of the glomerular filtration rate in children by the new revised Schwartz formula and a new generalized formula.

The most widely used formula for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in children is the Schwartz formula. It was revised in 2009 using iohexol clearances with measured GFR (mGFR) ranging between 15 and 75 ml/min × 1.73 m(2). Here we assessed the accuracy of the Schwartz formula using the inulin clearance (iGFR) method to evaluate its accuracy for children with less renal impairment comparing 551 iGFRs of 392 children with their Schwartz eGFRs. Serum creatinine was measured using the compensated Jaffe method. In order to find the best relationship between iGFR and eGFR, a linear quadratic regression model was fitted and a more accurate formula was derived. This quadratic formula was: 0.68 × (Height (cm)/serum creatinine (mg/dl))-0.0008 × (height (cm)/serum creatinine (mg/dl))(2)+0.48 × age (years)-(21.53 in males or 25.68 in females). This formula was validated using a split-half cross-validation technique and also externally validated with a new cohort of 127 children. Results show that the Schwartz formula is accurate until a height (Ht)/serum creatinine value of 251, corresponding to an iGFR of 103 ml/min × 1.73 m(2), but significantly unreliable for higher values. For an accuracy of 20 percent, the quadratic formula was significantly better than the Schwartz formula for all patients and for patients with a Ht/serum creatinine of 251 or greater. Thus, the new quadratic formula could replace the revised Schwartz formula, which is accurate for children with moderate renal failure but not for those with less renal impairment or hyperfiltration.

Modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors for postoperative delirium after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass.

Postoperative delirium after cardiac surgery is associated with increased morbidity and mortality as well as prolonged stay in both the intensive care unit and the hospital. The authors sought to identify modifiable risk factors associated with the development of postoperative delirium in elderly patients after elective cardiac surgery in order to be able to design follow-up studies aimed at the prevention of delirium by optimizing perioperative management. A post hoc analysis of data from patients enrolled in a randomized controlled trial was performed. A single university hospital. One hundred thirteen patients aged 65 or older undergoing elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAINS RESULTS: Screening for delirium was performed using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) on the first 6 postoperative days. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify significant risk factors and to control for confounders. Delirium developed in 35 of 113 patients (30%). The multivariable model showed the maximum value of C-reactive protein measured postoperatively, the dose of fentanyl per kilogram of body weight administered intraoperatively, and the duration of mechanical ventilation to be independently associated with delirium. In this post hoc analysis, larger doses of fentanyl administered intraoperatively and longer duration of mechanical ventilation were associated with postoperative delirium in the elderly after cardiac surgery. Prospective randomized trials should be performed to test the hypotheses that a reduced dose of fentanyl administered intraoperatively, the use of a different opioid, or weaning protocols aimed at early extubation prevent delirium in these patients.

The relationship between a short measure of health status and physical activity in a workplace population.

Many interventions promoting physical activity (PA) are effective in preventing disease onset, and although studies have found a positive relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQL) and PA, most of these studies have focused on older adults and those with chronic conditions. Less is known regarding the association between PA level and HRQL among healthy adults. Our objective was to analyse the relationship between PA level and HRQL among a sample of 573 employees aged 20-68 taking part in a workplace intervention to promote PA. Measures included HRQL (using a single item) and PA (i.e. Godin Leisure-Time Questionnaire). The Modified Canadian Aerobic Fitness Test (MCAFT) was also completed by 10% of the employees. MET-minute scores (assessing energy expenditure over one week) were compared across HRQL categories using ANOVA. A multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to further examine the relationship between HRQL and PA, controlling for potential covariates. Participants in the higher health status categories were found to report higher levels of energy expenditure (one-way ANOVA, p < 0.001). In the multiple linear regression model, each unit increase in health status level translated in a mean increase of 356 MET-minutes in energy expenditure (p < 0.001). This single-item assessment of health status explained six percent of the variance in energy expenditure. The study concludes that higher energy expenditure through PA among an adult workplace population is positively associated with increased health status, and it also suggests that a single-item HRQL measure is suitable for community- and population-based studies, reducing response burden and research costs.

Individual patient data systematic review and meta-analysis of optic nerve sheath diameter ultrasonography for detecting raised intracranial pressure: protocol of the ONSD research group.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) research group project is to establish an individual patient-level database from high quality studies of ONSD ultrasonography for the detection of raised intracranial pressure (ICP), and to perform a systematic review and an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA), which will provide a cutoff value to help physicians making decisions and encourage further research. Previous meta-analyses were able to assess the diagnostic accuracy of ONSD ultrasonography in detecting raised ICP but failed to determine a precise cutoff value. Thus, the ONSD research group was founded to synthesize data from several recent studies on the subject and to provide evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of ONSD ultrasonography in detecting raised ICP. METHODS: This IPDMA will be conducted in different phases. First, we will systematically search for eligible studies. To be eligible, studies must have compared ONSD ultrasonography to invasive intracranial devices, the current reference standard for diagnosing raised ICP. Subsequently, we will assess the quality of studies included based on the QUADAS-2 tool, and then collect and validate individual patient data. The objectives of the primary analyses will be to assess the diagnostic accuracy of ONSD ultrasonography and to determine a precise cutoff value for detecting raised ICP. Secondly, we will construct a logistic regression model to assess whether patient and study characteristics influence diagnostic accuracy. DISCUSSION: We believe that this IPD MA will provide the most reliable basis for the assessment of diagnostic accuracy of ONSD ultrasonography for detecting raised ICP and to provide a cutoff value. We also hope that the creation of the ONSD research group will encourage further study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration number: CRD42012003072.

Cervical cancer: incidence and survival in migrants within Spain

This study examined the incidence of cervical cancer and survival rates according to migrant experience of women from different regions of Spain to Girona, Catalonia (Spain). DESIGN--Using data from the population based cancer registry of Girona for the period 1980-89, crude and age adjusted incidence rates were calculated for local-born and first generation migrants from other Spanish regions. The age standardised rate ratio (SRR) was calculated and Cox's regression model was used to adjust survival according to migrant status for age and stage at diagnosis. MAIN RESULTS--The incidence of cervical cancer was significantly higher in first generation Spanish migrants compared with locally born women (SRR: 2.02; 95% CI 1.40:2.92). The stage at diagnosis was more advanced among migrants. Survival probability was significantly associated with stage at diagnosis, but age and region of birth were not. CONCLUSIONS--Migrants from the southern Spanish regions show a twofold excess in the incidence of cervical cancer compared with the Girona-born female population. Cases of cervical cancer in migrants are diagnosed at a more advanced stage and as a consequence have a poorer prognosis.