Development and validation of a quantitative method to assess pedicle screw loosening in posterior spine instrumentation on plain radiographs.

PURPOSE Currently, the diagnosis of pedicle screw (PS) loosening is based on a subjectively assessed halo sign, that is, a radiolucent line around the implant wider than 1 mm in plain radiographs. We aimed at development and validation of a quantitative method to diagnose PS loosening on radiographs. METHODS Between 11/2004 and 1/2010 36 consecutive patients treated with thoraco-lumbar spine fusion with PS instrumentation without PS loosening were compared with 37 other patients who developed a clinically manifesting PS loosening. Three different angles were measured and compared regarding their capability to discriminate the loosened PS over the postoperative course. The inter-observer invariance was tested and a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was performed. RESULTS The angle measured between the PS axis and the cranial endplate was significantly different between the early and all later postoperative images. The Spearman correlation coefficient for the measurements of two observers at each postoperative time point ranged between 0.89 at 2 weeks to 0.94 at 2 months and 1 year postoperative. The angle change of 1.9° between immediate postoperative and 6-month postoperative was 75% sensitive and 89% specific for the identification of loosened screws (AUC = 0.82). DISCUSSION The angle between the PS axis and the cranial endplate showed good ability to change in PS loosening. A change of this angle of at least 2° had a relatively high sensitivity and specificity to diagnose screw loosening.

Resistance prediction in AML: analysis of 4601 patients from MRC/NCRI, HOVON/SAKK, SWOG and MD Anderson Cancer Center

Therapeutic resistance remains the principal problem in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We used area under receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs) to quantify our ability to predict therapeutic resistance in individual patients, where AUC=1.0 denotes perfect prediction and AUC=0.5 denotes a coin flip, using data from 4601 patients with newly diagnosed AML given induction therapy with 3+7 or more intense standard regimens in UK Medical Research Council/National Cancer Research Institute, Dutch–Belgian Cooperative Trial Group for Hematology/Oncology/Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, US cooperative group SWOG and MD Anderson Cancer Center studies. Age, performance status, white blood cell count, secondary disease, cytogenetic risk and FLT3-ITD/NPM1 mutation status were each independently associated with failure to achieve complete remission despite no early death (‘primary refractoriness’). However, the AUC of a bootstrap-corrected multivariable model predicting this outcome was only 0.78, indicating only fair predictive ability. Removal of FLT3-ITD and NPM1 information only slightly decreased the AUC (0.76). Prediction of resistance, defined as primary refractoriness or short relapse-free survival, was even more difficult. Our limited ability to forecast resistance based on routinely available pretreatment covariates provides a rationale for continued randomization between standard and new therapies and supports further examination of genetic and posttreatment data to optimize resistance prediction in AML.

Alterations of Endothelial Glycocalyx During Orthotopic Liver Transplantation in Patients With End-Stage Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND Endothelial glycocalyx participates in the maintenance of vascular integrity, and its perturbations cause capillary leakage, loss of vascular responsiveness, and enhanced adhesion of leukocytes and platelets. We hypothesized that marked shedding of the glycocalyx core protein, syndecan-1, occurs in end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and that it increases during orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). We further evaluated the effects of general anesthesia on glycocalyx shedding and its association with acute kidney injury (AKI) after OLT. PATIENTS AND METHODS Thirty consecutive liver transplant recipients were enrolled in this prospective study. Ten healthy volunteers served as a control. Acute kidney injury was defined by Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria. RESULTS Plasma syndecan-1 was significantly higher in ESLD patients than in healthy volunteers (74.3 ± 59.9 vs 10.7 ± 9.4 ng/mL), and it further increased significantly after reperfusion (74.3 ± 59.9 vs 312.6 ± 114.8 ng/mL). The type of general anesthesia had no significant effect on syndecan-1. Syndecan-1 was significantly higher during the entire study in patients with posttransplant AKI stage 2 or 3 compared to patients with AKI stage 0 or 1. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics curve of syndecane-1 to predict AKI stage 2 or 3 within 48 hours after reperfusion was 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.89, P = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS Patients with ESLD suffer from glycocalyx alterations, and ischemia-reperfusion injury during OLT further exacerbates its damage. Despite a higher incidence of AKI in patients with elevated syndecan-1, it is not helpful to predict de novo AKI. Volatile anesthetics did not attenuate glycocalyx shedding in human OLT.

Phosphatidylethanol (PEth) in blood samples from "driving under the influence" cases as indicator for prolonged excessive alcohol consumption.

Phosphatidylethanol (PEth) is considered as specific biomarker of alcohol consumption. Due to accumulation after repeated drinking, PEth is suitable to monitor long-term drinking behavior. To examine the applicability of PEth in "driving under the influence of alcohol" cases, 142 blood samples with blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) ranging from 0.0-3.12 ‰ were analyzed for the presence of PEth homologues 16:0/18:1 (889 ± 878 ng/mL; range receiver operating characteristic analysis, PEth thresholds were evaluated to differentiate moderate and excessive alcohol consumption with acceptable sensitivity and specificity in accordance with the 1.6 ‰ BAC limit. With a threshold of 700 ng/mL for PEth 16:0/18:1, prolonged excessive alcohol consumption was detected in 65.9 % of drunk drivers with a BAC ≥ 1.6 ‰ and in 31.6 % of the samples with a BAC < 1.6 ‰. Similar results were obtained for PEth 16:0/18:2 with a threshold of 300 ng/mL. Both criteria, PEth 16:0/18:1 and PEth 16:0/18:2, were conform in the evaluation of drinking habits in 88.7 % of blood samples. These results show the possibility to detect prolonged excessive alcohol consumption, even if the BAC is below the legal threshold of 1.6 ‰ for driving aptitude assessment. As a consequence, concentrations of PEth 16:0/18:1 ≥ 700 ng/mL and of PEth 16:0/18:2 ≥ 300 ng/mL may be considered as indicators for the necessity of driving aptitude assessment in addition to BAC.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening With Computed Tomography Using the Arterial Enhancement Fraction With Radiologic-Pathologic Correlation.

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of the arterial enhancement fraction (AEF) in multiphasic computed tomography (CT) acquisitions to detect hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in liver transplant recipients in correlation with the pathologic analysis of the corresponding liver explants. MATERIALS AND METHODS Fifty-five transplant recipients were analyzed: 35 patients with 108 histologically proven HCC lesions and 20 patients with end-stage liver disease without HCC. Six radiologists looked at the triphasic CT acquisitions with the AEF maps in a first readout. For the second readout without the AEF maps, 3 radiologists analyzed triphasic CT acquisitions (group 1), whereas the other 3 readers had 4 contrast acquisitions available (group 2). A jackknife free-response reader receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to compare the readout performance of the readers. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to determine the optimal cutoff value of the AEF. RESULTS The figure of merit (θ = 0.6935) for the conventional triphasic readout was significantly inferior compared with the triphasic readout with additional use of the AEF (θ = 0.7478, P < 0.0001) in group 1. There was no significant difference between the fourphasic conventional readout (θ = 0.7569) and the triphasic readout (θ = 0.7615, P = 0.7541) with the AEF in group 2. Without the AEF, HCC lesions were detected with a sensitivity of 30.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.5%-36.4%) and a specificity of 97.1% (96.0%-98.0%) by group 1 looking at 3 CT acquisition phases and with a sensitivity of 42.1% (36.2%-48.1%) and a specificity of 97.5% (96.4%-98.3%) in group 2 looking at 4 CT acquisition phases. Using the AEF maps, both groups looking at the same 3 acquisition phases, the sensitivity was 47.7% (95% CI, 41.9%-53.5%) with a specificity of 97.4% (96.4%-98.3%) in group 1 and 49.8% (95% CI, 43.9%-55.8%)/97.6% (96.6%-98.4%) in group 2. The optimal cutoff for the AEF was 50%. CONCLUSION The AEF is a helpful tool to screen for HCC with CT. The use of the AEF maps may significantly improve HCC detection, which allows omitting the fourth CT acquisition phase and thus making a 25% reduction of radiation dose possible.

Incremental value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein in suspected acute myocardial infarction early after symptom onset.

BACKGROUND The early diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) very soon after symptom onset remains a major clinical challenge, even when using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTnT). METHODS AND RESULTS We investigated the incremental value of heart-type fatty acid-binding protein (hFABP) in a pre-specified subgroup analysis of patients presenting with suspected AMI within 1 h of symptom onset to the emergency department (ED) in a multicentre study. HFABP was measured in a blinded fashion. Two independent cardiologists using all available clinical information, including hs-cTnT, adjudicated the final diagnosis. Overall, 1411 patients were enrolled, of whom 105 patients presented within 1 h of symptom onset. Of these, 34 patients (32.4%) had AMI. The diagnostic accuracy as quantified by the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) of hFABP was high (0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.94)). However, the additional use of hFABP only marginally increased the diagnostic accuracy of hs-cTnT (AUC 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.94) for hs-cTnT alone to 0.90 (95% CI 0.83-0.98) for the combination; p=ns). After the exclusion of 18 AMI patients with ST-segment elevation, similar results were obtained. Among the 16 AMI patients without ST-segment elevation, six had normal hs-cTnT at presentation. Of these, hFABP was elevated in two (33.3%) patients. CONCLUSIONS hFABP does not seem to significantly improve the early diagnostic accuracy of hs-cTnT in the important subgroup of patients with suspected AMI presenting to the ED very early after symptom onset.

Detection of significant coronary artery disease by noninvasive anatomical and functional imaging.

BACKGROUND The choice of imaging techniques in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) varies between countries, regions, and hospitals. This prospective, multicenter, comparative effectiveness study was designed to assess the relative accuracy of commonly used imaging techniques for identifying patients with significant CAD. METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 475 patients with stable chest pain and intermediate likelihood of CAD underwent coronary computed tomographic angiography and stress myocardial perfusion imaging by single photon emission computed tomography or positron emission tomography, and ventricular wall motion imaging by stress echocardiography or cardiac magnetic resonance. If ≥1 test was abnormal, patients underwent invasive coronary angiography. Significant CAD was defined by invasive coronary angiography as >50% stenosis of the left main stem, >70% stenosis in a major coronary vessel, or 30% to 70% stenosis with fractional flow reserve ≤0.8. Significant CAD was present in 29% of patients. In a patient-based analysis, coronary computed tomographic angiography had the highest diagnostic accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve being 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-0.94), sensitivity being 91%, and specificity being 92%. Myocardial perfusion imaging had good diagnostic accuracy (area under the curve, 0.74; confidence interval, 0.69-0.78), sensitivity 74%, and specificity 73%. Wall motion imaging had similar accuracy (area under the curve, 0.70; confidence interval, 0.65-0.75) but lower sensitivity (49%, P<0.001) and higher specificity (92%, P<0.001). The diagnostic accuracy of myocardial perfusion imaging and wall motion imaging were lower than that of coronary computed tomographic angiography (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS In a multicenter European population of patients with stable chest pain and low prevalence of CAD, coronary computed tomographic angiography is more accurate than noninvasive functional testing for detecting significant CAD defined invasively. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00979199.

Assessing the improved discriminatory power of a new biomarker in prognostic models

Although the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) is the most popular measure of the performance of prediction models, it has limitations, especially when it is used to evaluate the added discrimination of a new biomarker in the model. Pencina et al. (2008) proposed two indices, the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), to supplement the improvement in the AUC (IAUC). Their NRI and IDI are based on binary outcomes in case-control settings, which do not involve time-to-event outcome. However, many disease outcomes are time-dependent and the onset time can be censored. Measuring discrimination potential of a prognostic marker without considering time to event can lead to biased estimates. In this dissertation, we have extended the NRI and IDI to survival analysis settings and derived the corresponding sample estimators and asymptotic tests. Simulation studies were conducted to compare the performance of the time-dependent NRI and IDI with Pencina’s NRI and IDI. For illustration, we have applied the proposed method to a breast cancer study.^ Key words: Prognostic model, Discrimination, Time-dependent NRI and IDI ^

ACCURACY OF THE BRCAPRO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL IN MALES PRESENTING TO MD ANDERSON FOR BRCA TESTING

ACCURACY OF THE BRCAPRO RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL IN MALES PRESENTING TO MD ANDERSON FOR BRCA TESTING Publication No. _______ Carolyn A. Garby, B.S. Supervisory Professor: Banu Arun, M.D. Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC) syndrome is due to mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Women with HBOC have high risks to develop breast and ovarian cancers. Males with HBOC are commonly overlooked because male breast cancer is rare and other male cancer risks such as prostate and pancreatic cancers are relatively low. BRCA genetic testing is indicated for men as it is currently estimated that 4-40% of male breast cancers result from a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation (Ottini, 2010) and management recommendations can be made based on genetic test results. Risk assessment models are available to provide the individualized likelihood to have a BRCA mutation. Only one study has been conducted to date to evaluate the accuracy of BRCAPro in males and was based on a cohort of Italian males and utilized an older version of BRCAPro. The objective of this study is to determine if BRCAPro5.1 is a valid risk assessment model for males who present to MD Anderson Cancer Center for BRCA genetic testing. BRCAPro has been previously validated for determining the probability of carrying a BRCA mutation, however has not been further examined particularly in males. The total cohort consisted of 152 males who had undergone BRCA genetic testing. The cohort was stratified by indication for genetic counseling. Indications included having a known familial BRCA mutation, having a personal diagnosis of a BRCA-related cancer, or having a family history suggestive of HBOC. Overall there were 22 (14.47%) BRCA1+ males and 25 (16.45%) BRCA2+ males. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for the cohort overall, for each particular indication, as well as for each cancer subtype. Our findings revealed that the BRCAPro5.1 model had perfect discriminating ability at a threshold of 56.2 for males with breast cancer, however only 2 (4.35%) of 46 were found to have BRCA2 mutations. These results are significantly lower than the high approximation (40%) reported in previous literature. BRCAPro does perform well in certain situations for men. Future investigation of male breast cancer and men at risk for BRCA mutations is necessary to provide a more accurate risk assessment.

External validation study of a clinical prediction rule for ambulation outcomes after traumatic spinal cord injury

The main objective of this study was to determine the external validity of a clinical prediction rule developed by the European Multicenter Study on Human Spinal Cord Injury (EM-SCI) to predict the ambulation outcomes 12 months after traumatic spinal cord injury. Data from the North American Clinical Trials Network (NACTN) data registry with approximately 500 SCI cases were used for this validity study. The predictive accuracy of the EM-SCI prognostic model was evaluated using calibration and discrimination based on 231 NACTN cases. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (ROC) curve was 0.927 (95% CI 0.894 – 0.959) for the EM-SCI model when applied to NACTN population. This is lower than the AUC of 0.956 (95% CI 0.936 – 0.976) reported for the EM-SCI population, but suggests that the EM-SCI clinical prediction rule distinguished well between those patients in the NACTN population who were able to achieve independent ambulation and those who did not achieve independent ambulation. The calibration curve suggests that higher the prediction score is, the better the probability of walking with the best prediction for AIS D patients. In conclusion, the EM-SCI clinical prediction rule was determined to be generalizable to the adult NACTN SCI population.^

Screening Subclinical Keratoconus With Placido-Based Corneal Indices

Purpose. To assess in a sample of normal, keratoconic, and keratoconus (KC) suspect eyes the performance of a set of new topographic indices computed directly from the digitized images of the Placido rings. Methods. This comparative study was composed of a total of 124 eyes of 106 patients from the ophthalmic clinics Vissum Alicante and Vissum Almería (Spain) divided into three groups: control group (50 eyes), KC group (50 eyes), and KC suspect group (24 eyes). In all cases, a comprehensive examination was performed, including the corneal topography with a Placidobased CSO topography system. Clinical outcomes were compared among groups, along with the discriminating performance of the proposed irregularity indices. Results. Significant differences at level 0.05 were found on the values of the indices among groups by means of Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon nonparametric test and Fisher exact test. Additional statistical methods, such as receiver operating characteristic analysis and K-fold cross validation, confirmed the capability of the indices to discriminate between the three groups. Conclusions. Direct analysis of the digitized images of the Placido mires projected on the cornea is a valid and effective tool for detection of corneal irregularities. Although based only on the data from the anterior surface of the cornea, the new indices performed well even when applied to the KC suspect eyes. They have the advantage of simplicity of calculation combined with high sensitivity in corneal irregularity detection and thus can be used as supplementary criteria for diagnosing and grading KC that can be added to the current keratometric classifications.

A reliable and valid questionnaire was developed to measure computer vision syndrome at the workplace

Objectives: To design and validate a questionnaire to measure visual symptoms related to exposure to computers in the workplace. Study Design and Setting: Our computer vision syndrome questionnaire (CVS-Q) was based on a literature review and validated through discussion with experts and performance of a pretest, pilot test, and retest. Content validity was evaluated by occupational health, optometry, and ophthalmology experts. Rasch analysis was used in the psychometric evaluation of the questionnaire. Criterion validity was determined by calculating the sensitivity and specificity, receiver operator characteristic curve, and cutoff point. Testeretest repeatability was tested using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and concordance by Cohen’s kappa (k). Results: The CVS-Q was developed with wide consensus among experts and was well accepted by the target group. It assesses the frequency and intensity of 16 symptoms using a single rating scale (symptom severity) that fits the Rasch rating scale model well. The questionnaire has sensitivity and specificity over 70% and achieved good testeretest repeatability both for the scores obtained [ICC 5 0.802; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.673, 0.884] and CVS classification (k 5 0.612; 95% CI: 0.384, 0.839). Conclusion: The CVS-Q has acceptable psychometric properties, making it a valid and reliable tool to control the visual health of computer workers, and can potentially be used in clinical trials and outcome research.

Application of phosphatidylethanol (PEth) in whole blood in comparison to ethyl glucuronide in hair (hEtG) in driving aptitude assessment (DAA)

For driving aptitude assessment (DAA), the analysis of several alcohol biomarkers is essential for the detection of alcohol intake besides psycho-medical exploration. In Switzerland, EtG in hair (hEtG) is often the only direct marker for abstinence monitoring in DAA. Therefore, the suitability of phosphatidylethanol (PEth) was investigated as additional biomarker. PEth 16:0/18:1 and 16:0/18:2 were determined by online-SPE-LC-MS/MS in 136 blood samples of persons undergoing DAA and compared to hEtG, determined in hair segments taken at the same time. With a PEth 16:0/18:1 threshold of 210 ng/mL for excessive alcohol consumption, all (n = 30) but one tested person also had hEtG values ≥30 pg/mg. In 54 cases, results are not in contradiction to an abstinence as neither PEth (<20 ng/mL) nor hEtG (<7 pg/mg) was detected. In eight cases, both markers showed moderate consumption. Altogether, PEth and hEtG were in accordance in 68 % of the samples, although covering different time periods of alcohol consumption. With receiver operating characteristic analysis, PEth was evaluated to differentiate abstinence, moderate, and excessive alcohol consumption in accordance with hEtG limits. A PEth 16:0/18:1 threshold of 150 ng/mL resulted in the best sensitivity (70.6 %) and specificity (98.8 %) for excessive consumption. Values between 20 and 150 ng/mL passed for moderate consumption, values <20 ng/mL passed for abstinence. As PEth mostly has a shorter detection window (2-4 weeks) than hEtG (up to 6 months depending on hair length), changes in drinking behavior can be detected earlier by PEth than by hEtG analysis alone. Therefore, PEth helps to improve the diagnostic information and is a valuable additional alcohol marker for DAA.

Clinical prediction of large vessel occlusion in anterior circulation stroke: mission impossible?

Simple clinical scores to predict large vessel occlusion (LVO) in acute ischemic stroke would be helpful to triage patients in the prehospital phase. We assessed the ability of various combinations of National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) subitems and published stroke scales (i.e., RACE scale, 3I-SS, sNIHSS-8, sNIHSS-5, sNIHSS-1, mNIHSS, a-NIHSS items profiles A-E, CPSS1, CPSS2, and CPSSS) to predict LVO on CT or MR arteriography in 1085 consecutive patients (39.4 % women, mean age 67.7 years) with anterior circulation strokes within 6 h of symptom onset. 657 patients (61 %) had an occlusion of the internal carotid artery or the M1/M2 segment of the middle cerebral artery. Best cut-off value of the total NIHSS score to predict LVO was 7 (PPV 84.2 %, sensitivity 81.0 %, specificity 76.6 %, NPV 72.4 %, ACC 79.3 %). Receiver operating characteristic curves of various combinations of NIHSS subitems and published scores were equally or less predictive to show LVO than the total NIHSS score. At intersection of sensitivity and specificity curves in all scores, at least 1/5 of patients with LVO were missed. Best odds ratios for LVO among NIHSS subitems were best gaze (9.6, 95 %-CI 6.765-13.632), visual fields (7.0, 95 %-CI 3.981-12.370), motor arms (7.6, 95 %-CI 5.589-10.204), and aphasia/neglect (7.1, 95 %-CI 5.352-9.492). There is a significant correlation between clinical scores based on the NIHSS score and LVO on arteriography. However, if clinically relevant thresholds are applied to the scores, a sizable number of LVOs are missed. Therefore, clinical scores cannot replace vessel imaging.

Validation and refinement of survival models for liver retransplantation

Orthotopic liver retransplantation (re-OLT) is highly controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity of a recently developed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) multivariate model using an independent cohort of patients undergoing re-OLT outside the United States, to determine whether incorporation of other variables that were incomplete in the UNOS registry would provide additional prognostic information, to develop new models combining data sets from both cohorts, and to evaluate the validity of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in patients undergoing re-OLT. Two hundred eighty-one adult patients undergoing re-OLT (between 1986 and 1999) at 6 foreign transplant centers comprised the validation cohort. We found good agreement between actual survival and predicted survival in the validation cohort; 1-year patient survival rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (as assigned by the original UNOS model) were 72%, 68%, and 36%, respectively (P < .0001). In the patients for whom the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time was available, MELD correlated with outcome following re-OLT; the median MELD scores for patients surviving at least 90 days compared with those dying within 90 days were 20.75 versus 25.9, respectively (P = .004). Utilizing both patient cohorts (n = 979), a new model, based on recipient age, total serum bilirubin, creatinine, and interval to re-OLT, was constructed (whole model χ(2) = 105, P < .0001). Using the c-statistic with 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality as the end points, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 4 different models were compared. In conclusion, prospective validation and use of these models as adjuncts to clinical decision making in the management of patients being considered for re-OLT are warranted.