Bond fund runs: The financial crisis case

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Development of a satellite based PM10 concentration product for urban areas

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia do Ambiente

A semi-automatic approach to code smells detection

Eradication of code smells is often pointed out as a way to improve readability, extensibility and design in existing software. However, code smell detection remains time consuming and error-prone, partly due to the inherent subjectivity of the detection processes presently available. In view of mitigating the subjectivity problem, this dissertation presents a tool that automates a technique for the detection and assessment of code smells in Java source code, developed as an Eclipse plugin. The technique is based upon a Binary Logistic Regression model that uses complexity metrics as independent variables and is calibrated by expert‟s knowledge. An overview of the technique is provided, the tool is described and validated by an example case study.

Exposição profissional ao chumbo : análise da indução de efeitos genotóxicos

RESUMO - A exposição contínua a substâncias químicas tem consequências para a saúde humana, algumas das quais não estão ainda totalmente estabelecidas. A toxicologia ocupacional é uma área interdisciplinar que envolve conhecimentos de higiene e de medicina ocupacional, de epidemiologia e de toxicologia e que tem por principal objectivo prevenir a ocorrência de efeitos adversos decorrentes do ambiente ocupacional sendo um dos seus principais papéis fornecer o máximo de dados que possam contribuir para o conhecimento dos potenciais efeitos na saúde. O chumbo é um tóxico de características cumulativas que provoca na saúde efeitos principalmente sistémicos, ou seja, o efeito tóxico manifesta-se em locais afastados do contacto inicial que resultam essencialmente de exposições crónicas, resultantes de períodos de exposição mais ou menos longos ao metal (entre meses e anos). Pode interagir com diferentes órgãos e tecidos, ligando-se a moléculas e constituintes celulares. Uma vez que não possui qualquer função fisiológica, a presença do chumbo no organismo humano resulta numa série de efeitos prejudiciais que afectam diversos órgãos e sistemas. A toxicidade do chumbo manifesta-se em diversos órgãos e tecidos, nomeadamente no sistema hematopoiético, no sistema nervoso, no rim, no aparelho reprodutor, no sistema cardiovascular, no sistema endócrino e no sistema imunitário. Da interferência do chumbo com o funcionamento de alguns sistemas biológicos resultam um conjunto de alterações fundamentais ao nível dos processos de transporte através das membranas, da integridade estrutural e funcional das enzimas e de várias vias metabólicas, em especial da fosforilação oxidativa e da síntese do heme sendo os primeiros efeitos bioquímicos do chumbo detectados a partir de valores de plumbémia inferiores a 10 μg/dL. As medidas de higiene e segurança actualmente em vigor nos países desenvolvidos asseguram que os casos de intoxicação grave são cada vez menos frequentes. No entanto, o risco de exposição a nível ocupacional existe em todas as actividades que envolvem materiais que o contenham como as explorações mineiras, as fundições primária e secundária, a produção de baterias de chumbo ácido, a produção de vidro com pigmentos de chumbo, as soldaduras de reparação automóvel e a instrução de tiro. Desde 2006 o chumbo é considerado pela International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) uma substância carcinogénica do grupo 2A (provável carcinogénio para o ser humano). Considera-se, assim, que o chumbo tem, inequivocamente, capacidade de induzir cancro em animais experimentais mas que, embora haja fortes indícios de que os mecanismos que medeiam a carcinogénese desses compostos ocorrem no ser humano, os dados disponíveis ainda não podem assegurar essa relação. Com este estudo pretendeu-se contribuir para o conhecimento da toxicidade do chumbo através do estudo da exposição ao chumbo e da influência da susceptibilidade individual (em industrias sem co-exposição significativa a outros agentes conhecidos ou suspeitos de serem carcinogénicos). Pretendeu-se estudar o caso através de uma abordagem múltipla que permitisse relacionar diferentes tipos de marcadores biológicos uma vez que a monitorização biológica integra todas as possíveis vias de entrada no organismo (para além da via respiratória), eventuais exposições fora do contexto estritamente profissional assim como uma série de factores intrínsecos individuais (relacionados com modos de via, de natureza fisiológica e comportamentais). Sendo a co-exposição a outros compostos com propriedades genotóxicas e carcinogénicas uma questão difícil de tornear quando se quer avaliar o potencial genotóxico do chumbo em populações expostas, ocupacional ou ambientalmente este estudo tem a vantagem de ter sido efectuado em populações sem co-exposição conhecida a outras substâncias deste tipo, permitindo concluir sobre os efeitos resultantes apenas da exposição a chumbo na população humana, contribuindo para explicar algumas das aparentes inconsistências e contradições entre diferentes estudos sobre este tema. Os indicadores de exposição usados foram: indicadores de dose interna (doseamento de chumbo e de PPZ no sangue), indicadores de efeitos adversos no heme e genotóxicos (actividade da ALAD, teste do cometa e mutação em TCR) e indicadores de susceptibilidade (polimorfismos genéticos de ALAD e VDR) através de uma abordagem estatística de comparação directa de sub-grupos previamente definidos na população e da aplicação de um modelo de regressão múltipla. Este estudo revelou que os níveis de plumbémia na população portuguesa baixaram significativamente nos últimos 10 anos, tanto na população ocupacionalmente exposta como na população em geral e que a presença do genótipo B-B (do gene VDR) é preditiva das variações de plumbémia, quando comparada com o genótipo mais frequente na população, B-b; ao contrário, o genótipo b-b não aparenta ter influência em nenhum dos marcadores estudados. No que diz respeito a efeitos genotóxicos concluiu-se que estes não se manifestaram na população estudada, levando a concluir que nos níveis de exposição estudados, o chumbo não tem capacidade de induzir este tipo de efeitos per si levando ao reforço da hipótese, já levantada por outros autores, de que o mecanismo de genotoxicidade do chumbo seja essencialmente de promoção de processos de genotoxicidade desencadeados por outros agentes. A realização de estudos de efeitos genotóxicos e de stress oxidativo desenhados de forma a comparar grupos de trabalhadores expostos apenas a chumbo com grupos de trabalhadores com o mesmo nível de exposição a chumbo, mas com co-exposição a outros agentes reconhecidamente carcinogénicos poderá ajudar a aumentar o conhecimento deste efeito do chumbo na saúde humana.

Caracterização da adesão terapêutica dos doentes seguidos no Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte, EPE, no decurso do tratamento da, Esclerose Múltipla, Esclerose Lateral Amiotrófica, Artrite Reumatóide, Espondilite Anquilosante, Artrite Psoriática, Artrite Idiopática Juvenil Poliarticular, Psoríase em Placas, Polineuropatia Amiloidótica Familiar (Paramiloidose) e HIV/Sida : análise retrospetiva

RESUMO - Objetivos: Caracterizar a adesão à terapêutica nos doentes do CHLN, na área do VIH/SIDA, Esclerose, Artrite Reumatóide, Psoríase e Paramiloidose e avaliar a hipótese de ser possível prever o risco de um doente se tornar, num doente sem adesão. Metodologia: Estudo retrospetivo, observacional e longitudinal, realizado entre Janeiro de 2010 a 31 de Dezembro de 2013, a 4.761 doentes, em que a adesão à terapêutica foi calculada com base nos registos informáticos das dispensas de medicação, efectuados pelos Serviços Farmacêuticos, com recurso à Compliance Rate (CR) e utilizada como variável dependente. A estatística descritiva foi utilizada para caracterizar os doentes e os seus levantamentos e a regressão logística para avaliar o efeito das variáveis (idade, sexo, distrito de residência, período de observação, número de interrupções superiores a trinta dias e tempo até à primeira interrupção) sobre a adesão à terapêutica. Resultados e Conclusões: A percentagem de doentes com adesão foi de 64%, no entanto no HIV/Sida e na Artrite Reumatóide e Psoríase esta percentagem foi significativamente mais baixa, 42% dos doentes interromperam a terapêutica por períodos superiores a 30 dias, ocorrendo essa interrupção maioritariamente entre o primeiro e segundo ano de terapêutica. O modelo de regressão logística permitiu verificar que só com as variáveis sociodemográficas não é possível prever o risco de um doente se tornar num doente sem adesão, sendo para tal necessário adicionar ao modelo a variável número de interrupções superiores a 30 dias que foi identificada como importante factor preditivo da não adesão (OR=15,9, p=0,000).

Mother-to-child transmission of HIV infection in Manaus, State of Amazonas, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Reduction in the vertical transmission of HIV is possible when prophylactic measures are implemented. Our objective was to determine demographic characteristics of HIV-infected pregnant women and the rate of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. METHODS: A descriptive study was conducted using notification, and investigating data from the Notifiable Diseases Data System in the Brazilian State of Amazonas, between 2007 and 2009. RESULTS: During the study period, notification was received of 509 HIV-positive pregnant women. The vertical transmission was 9.9% (95% CI: 7.2-12.6%). The mean age of women was 27 years (SD: 5.7), and the majority (54.8%) had not completed elementary school (eighth grade). Diagnosis of HIV seropositivity was made prior to pregnancy in 115 (22.6%) women, during prenatal care in 302 (59.3%), during delivery in 70 (13.8%), and following delivery in 22 (4.3%). Four hundred four of these women (79.4%) had had prenatal care, with 79.4% of patients receiving antiretroviral during pregnancy and 61.9% of the newborn infants receiving prophylaxis. In the final multivariate logistic regression model, living in urban area [OR = 0.7 (95% CI: 0.35-0.89)] and having had prenatal care [OR = 0.1 (95% CI: 0.04-0.24)] remained as protective factors against vertical HIV transmission in this population. CONCLUSIONS: The relevance of adequate compliance with the measures already established as being effective in guaranteeing a reduction in HIV transmission within the maternal and infant population should be emphasized.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Prevalence and risk factors for Toxoplasma gondii infection among pregnant and postpartum women attended at public healthcare facilities in the City of Niterói, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

IntroductionTo determine the prevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) anti-Toxoplasma gondii antibodies among pregnant and postpartum women attended within the public healthcare system in Niterói, State of Rio de Janeiro, and to detect possible exposure factors associated with T. gondii infection in this population.MethodsIgM and IgG anti-T. gondii antibodies were investigated in 276 pregnant and 124 postpartum women by using the indirect immunofluorescence (IFAT) and immunoenzymatic assay (ELISA) techniques. The participants were selected by convenience sampling. All these 400 patients filled out a free and informed consent statement, answered an epidemiological questionnaire and were informed about the disease.ResultsAmong the 400 samples analyzed, 234 (58.5%) were reactive to IgG anti-T. gondii antibodies, according to the IFAT and/or ELISA assay. One pregnant woman was found to be reactive to IgM anti-T. gondii antibodies, with an intermediate IgG avidity test. Risk factor analysis showed that seropositivity was significantly associated (p<0.05) with age, contact with cats and presence of rodents at home. Through a logistic regression model, these associations were confirmed for age and contact with cats, while education at least of the high school level was found to be a protective factor.ConclusionsThe prevalence rate of IgG anti-T. gondii antibodies in the City of Niterói was high and the risk factors for infection detected after multivariate analysis were: age over 30 years, contact with cats and education levels lower than university graduate level.

Clinical variables associated with leprosy reactions and persistence of physical impairment

Introduction Leprosy is a chronic disease that affects skin and peripheral nerves. Disease complications include reactional episodes and physical impairment. One World Health Organization (WHO) goal of leprosy programs is to decrease the number of grade 2 impairment diagnoses by 2015. This study aims to evaluate clinical factors associated with the occurrence of leprosy reactions and physical impairment in leprosy patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of data from medical records of patients followed in two important centers for the treatment of leprosy in Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil, from 2005 to 2011. We used the chi-square test to analyze associations between the following categorical variables: gender, age, operational classification, clinical forms, leprosy reactions, corticosteroid treatment, and physical impairment at the diagnosis and after cure. Clinical variables associated with multibacillary leprosy and/or reactional episodes and the presence of any grade of physical impairment after cure were evaluated using the logistic regression model. Results We found that men were more affected by multibacillary forms, reactional episodes, and grade 2 physical impairment at diagnosis. Leprosy reactions were detected in a total of 40% of patients and all were treated with corticosteroids. However, physical impairment was observed in 29.8% of the patients analyzed at the end of the treatment and our multivariate analysis associated a low dose and short period of corticosteroid treatment with persistence of physical impairments. Conclusions Physical impairment should receive an increased attention before and after treatment, and adequate treatment should be emphasized.

An economic appraisal of the wealth-health gradient

In this study we aim to investigate the health discrepancies arising from unequal economic status, known as the “wealth-health gradient”. Our sample comprises 47,163 individuals from 14 European countries in the SHARE Wave 4 (2011), representing the population aged 50 and older. Through a cross-sectional OLS regression model, we have tested the impact of country-level indicators to infer their effect on personal health and on the magnitude of the gradient. The results find that private expenditure yields, on average, a higher, but fast decreasing, health benefit than public expenditure; and that income inequality is irrelevant for reducing health inequalities.

Sexual dysfunction and dissatisfaction in chronic hepatitis C patients

IntroductionThe prevalence of sexual dysfunction (SD) and dissatisfaction with sexual life (DSL) in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection (CHC) was jointly investigated via a thorough psychopathological analysis, which included dimensions such as fatigue, impulsiveness, psychiatric comorbidity, health-related quality of life (HRQL) and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics.MethodsMale and female CHC patients from an outpatient referral center were assessed using the Brief Fatigue Inventory, the Barrat Impulsiveness Scale, the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAM-A), and the World Health Organization Quality of Life Scale-Brief Version (WHOQOL-BREF). Structured psychiatric interviews were performed according to the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview. SD was assessed based on specific items in the BDI (item 21) and the HAM-A (item 12). DSL was assessed based on a specific question in the WHOQOL-BREF (item 21). Multivariate analysis was performed according to an ordinal linear regression model in which SD and DSL were considered as outcome variables.ResultsSD was reported by 60 (57.1%) of the patients according to the results of the BDI and by 54 (51.4%) of the patients according to the results of the HAM-A. SD was associated with older age, female gender, viral genotype 2 or 3, interferon-α use, impulsiveness, depressive symptoms, antidepressant and benzodiazepine use, and lower HRQL. DSL was reported by 34 (32.4%) of the patients and was associated with depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, antidepressant use, and lower HRQL.ConclusionsThe prevalence of SD and DSL in CHC patients was high and was associated with factors, such as depressive symptoms and antidepressant use. Screening and managing these conditions represent significant steps toward improving medical assistance and the HRQL of CHC patients.

Histological and endoscopic features of the stomachs of patients with Chagas disease in the era of Helicobacter pylori

Introduction Most studies that have evaluated the stomachs of patients with Chagas disease were performed before the discovery of Helicobacter pylori and used no control groups. This study compared the gastric features of chagasic and non-chagasic patients and assessed whether gastritis could be associated with Chagas disease. Methods Gastric biopsy samples were taken from patients who underwent endoscopy for histological analysis according to the Updated Sydney System. H. pylori infection was assessed by histology, 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) polymerase chain reaction (PCR), serology and the 13C-urea breath test. Patients were considered H. pylori-negative when all of these diagnostic tests were negative. Clinical and socio-demographic data were obtained by reviewing medical records and using a questionnaire. Results The prevalence of H. pylori infection (70.3% versus 71.7%) and chronic gastritis (92.2% versus 85%) was similar in the chagasic and non-chagasic groups, respectively; such as peptic ulcer, atrophy and intestinal metaplasia. Gastritis was associated with H. pylori infection independent of Chagas disease in a log-binomial regression model. However, the chagasic H. pylori-negative patients showed a significantly higher grade of mononuclear (in the corpus) and polymorphonuclear (PMN) (in the antrum) cell infiltration. Additionally, the patients with the digestive form of Chagas disease showed a significantly lower prevalence of corpus atrophy than those with other clinical forms. Conclusions The prevalence of H. pylori infection and of gastric histological and endoscopic features was similar among the chagasic and non-chagasic patients. Additionally, this is the first controlled study to demonstrate that H. pylori is the major cause of gastritis in patients with Chagas disease.

Risk factors associated with the transmissionof Brazilian spotted fever in the Piracicaba river basin, State of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION : Brazilian spotted fever (BSF) is a disease transmitted by ticks for which the etiological agent is Rickettsia rickettsii. The present essay evaluates the risk factors associated with the transmission of cases of BSF in the time period between 2003 and 2013 in the Piracicaba river basin, state of São Paulo. METHODS : This essay presents a retrospective study to identify the factors associated with the transmission of cases of BSF among all suspected cases identified by the System for Epidemiological Surveillance of São Paulo (CVE). After the description of temporal distribution (onset of symptoms) and the environmental and demographic variations of the confirmed and discarded cases, a multiple logistic regression model was applied. RESULTS : We searched 569 probable locations of infection (PLI) with 210 (37%) confirmed cases of BSF and 359 (63%) discarded cases. The associated variables for the confirmation of BSF in the multiple logistic model using a confidence interval (CI) of 95% were age (OR = 1.025 CI: 1.015-1.035), the presence of Amblyomma sculptum in the environment (OR = 1.629 CI: 1.097-2.439), the collection of ticks from horses (OR = 1.939 CI: 0.999-3.764), the presence of capybaras (OR = 1.467 CI: 1.009-2.138), an urban environment (OR = 1.515 CI: 1.036-2.231), and the existence of a dirty pasture (OR = 1.759 CI: 1.028-3.003). CONCLUSIONS : The factors associated with the confirmation of BSF cases included an urban environment, age, presence of the A. sculptum vector, the collection of ticks from horses, the presence of a capybara population, and a dirty pasture environment.

Clinical conditions associated withintestinal strongyloidiasis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Strongyloides stercoralis is a soil-transmitted helminth that produces an infection that can persist for decades. The relationships between certain clinical conditions and strongyloidiasis remains controversial. This study aims to identify the clinical conditions associated with intestinal strongyloidiasis at a reference center for infectious diseases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. METHODS: The clinical conditions that were assessed included HIV/AIDS, HTLV infection, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, obstructive respiratory diseases, viral hepatitis, tuberculosis, cancer, chronic renal disease, nutritional/metabolic disorders, psychiatric conditions, rheumatic diseases and dermatologic diseases. We compared 167 S. stercoralis-positive and 133 S. stercoralis-negative patients. RESULTS: After controlling for sex (male/female OR = 2.29; 95% (CI): (1.42 - 3.70), rheumatic diseases remained significantly associated with intestinal strongyloidiasis (OR: 4.96; 95% CI: 1.34-18.37) in a multiple logistic regression model. With respect to leukocyte counts, patients with strongyloidiasis presented with significantly higher relative eosinophil (10.32% ± 7.2 vs. 4.23% ± 2.92) and monocyte (8.49% ± 7.25 vs. 5.39% ± 4.31) counts and lower segmented neutrophil (52.85% ± 15.31 vs. 61.32% ± 11.4) and lymphocyte counts (28.11% ± 9.72 vs. 30.90% ± 9.51) than S. stercoralis-negative patients. CONCLUSIONS: Strongyloidiasis should be routinely investigated in hospitalized patients with complex conditions facilitate the treatment of patients who will undergo immunosuppressive therapy. Diagnoses should be determined through the use of appropriate parasitological methods, such as the Baermann-Moraes technique.

Prevalência do excesso de peso em idade pré-escolar no concelho da Murtosa: um estudo transversal

RESUMO - A prevalência de obesidade infantil em Portugal é das mais elevadas da Europa. No concelho da Murtosa (Aveiro), para estimar a prevalência de excesso de peso e obesidade entre os 3 e os 6 anos e determinar os factores que lhe estão associados, desenvolveu-se, durante o ano de 2008, um estudo transversal que consistiu na avaliação estatoponderal das crianças frequentadoras dos estabelecimentos de ensino pré-escolar do concelho e aplicação de um questionário aos pais sobre antecedentes e perinatais, hábitos alimentares, actividades da criança e características da família. Através de um modelo de regressão logística multivariada identificaram-se as variáveis associadas ao excesso de peso/obesidade. Participaram no estudo 258 crianças, estimando-se uma prevalência de excesso de peso de 15,5 % (IC 95 % : 11,6 % a 20,4 %) e de obesidade de 6,2 % (IC 95 % : 3,9 % a 9,8 % ). Observou-se uma maior prevalência de excesso de peso nos meninos (19,5 %) e de obesidade nas meninas (10,4 %). O excesso de peso materno e o hábito de comer a ver televisão aumentaram o risco de excesso de peso/obesidade (OR: 10,548; OR: 13,815); o maior número de horas de sono diário, o maior número de refeições diárias e o aumento ponderal materno durante a gravidez (OR: 0,490; OR: 0,366; OR: 0,804) associaram-se a um menor risco de excesso de peso/obesidade. Justifica-se o desenvolvimento de programas de prevenção primária e secundária da obesidade infantil dirigidos aos factores de risco modificáveis identificados, sugerindo-se a necessidade de uma abordagem familiar e da avaliação sistemática deste tipo de intervenções.