Deriving acceptable biological catch from the overfishing limit: implications for assessment models

The recently revised Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act requires that U.S. fishery management councils avoid overfishing by setting annual catch limits (ACLs) not exceeding recommendations of the councils’ scientific advisers. To meet that requirement, the scientific advisers will need to know the overfishing limit (OFL) estimated in each stock assessment, with OFL being the catch available from applying the limit fishing mortality rate to current or projected stock biomass. The advisers then will derive ‘‘acceptable biological catch’’ (ABC) from OFL by reducing OFL to allow for scientific uncertainty, and ABC becomes their recommendation to the council. We suggest methodology based on simple probability theory by which scientific advisers can compute ABC from OFL and the statistical distribution of OFL as estimated by a stock assessment. Our method includes approximations to the distribution of OFL if it is not known from the assessment; however, we find it preferable to have the assessment model estimate the distribution of OFL directly. Probability-based methods such as this one provide well-defined approaches to setting ABC and may be helpful to scientific advisers as they translate the new legal requirement into concrete advice.