Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.

An exploration of risk management in global industrial investment

This article explores risk management in global industrial investment by identifying linkages and gaps between theories and practices. It identifies opportunities for further development of the field. Three related bodies of literature have been reviewed: risk management, global manufacturing and investment. The review suggests that risk management in global manufacturing is overlooked in the literature; that existing theoretical risk management processes are not well developed in the global manufacturing context and that the investment literature applies mainly to financial risk assessment rather than investment risk management structures. Further, there appears to be a serious lack of systematic industrial risk management in investment decision making. This article highlights the opportunities to deploy current good practices more effectively as well as the need to develop more robust theories of industrial investment risk management. The approach adopted to investigate this multidisciplinary topic included a historical review of literature to understand the diverse background of theoretical development. A case study research approach was adopted to collect data, involving four global manufacturing companies and one risk management advisory company to observe the patterns and rationale of current practices. Supporting arguments from secondary data sources reinforced the findings. The research focuses risk management in global industrial investment. It links theories with practice to understand the existing knowledge gap and proposes key research themes for further research. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Ltd. 1460-3799 Risk Management.

Trust-Level Risk Evaluation and Risk Control Guidance in the NHS East of England

In recent years, the healthcare sector has adopted the use of operational risk assessment tools to help understand the systems issues that lead to patient safety incidents. But although these problem-focused tools have improved the ability of healthcare organizations to identify hazards, they have not translated into measurable improvements in patient safety. One possible reason for this is a lack of support for the solution-focused process of risk control. This article describes a content analysis of the risk management strategies, policies, and procedures at all acute (i.e., hospital), mental health, and ambulance trusts (health service organizations) in the East of England area of the British National Health Service. The primary goal was to determine what organizational-level guidance exists to support risk control practice. A secondary goal was to examine the risk evaluation guidance provided by these trusts. With regard to risk control, we found an almost complete lack of useful guidance to promote good practice. With regard to risk evaluation, the trusts relied exclusively on risk matrices. A number of weaknesses were found in the use of this tool, especially related to the guidance for scoring an event's likelihood. We make a number of recommendations to address these concerns. The guidance assessed provides insufficient support for risk control and risk evaluation. This may present a significant barrier to the success of risk management approaches in improving patient safety. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Vulnerability assessment of buildings subject to tunnel-induced settlements: the influence of orientation and position of the building

The assessment of settlement induced damage on buildings during the preliminary phase of tunnel excavation projects, is nowadays receiving greater attention. Analyses at different levels of detail are performed on the surface building in proximity to the tunnel, to evaluate the risk of structural damage and the need of mitigation measures. In this paper, the possibility to define a correlation between the main parameters that influence the structural response to settlement and the potential damage is investigated through numerical analysis. The adopted 3D finite element model allows to take into account important features that are neglected in more simplified approaches, like the soil-structure interaction, the nonlinear behaviour of the building, the three dimensional effect of the tunnelling induced settlement trough and the influence of openings in the structure. Aim of this approach is the development of an improved classification system taking into account the intrinsic vulnerability of the structure, which could have a relevant effect on the final damage assessment. Parametric analyses are performed, focusing on the effect of the orientation and the position of the structure with respect to the tunnel. The obtained results in terms of damage are compared with the Building Risk Assessment (BRA) procedure. This method was developed by Geodata Engineering (GDE) on the basis of empirical observations and building monitoring and applied during the construction of different metro lines in urban environment. The comparison shows a substantial agreement between the two procedures on the influence of the analysed parameters. The finite element analyses suggest a refinement of the BRA procedure for pure sagging conditions.

Assessment of the settlement vulnerability of masonry buildings

Excavation works in urban areas require a preliminary risk damage assessment. In historical cities, the prediction of building response to settlements is necessary to reduce the risk of damage of the architectural heritage. The current method used to predict the building damage due to ground deformations is the Limiting Tensile Strain Method (LTSM). In this approach the building is modelled as an elastic beam subjected to imposed Greenfield settlements and the induced tensile strains are compared with a limit value for the material. These assumptions can lead to a non realistic evaluation of the damage. In this paper, the possibility to apply a settlement risk assessment derived from the seismic vulnerability approach is considered. The parameters that influence the structural response to settlements can be defined through numerical analyses which take into account the nonlinear behaviour of masonry and the soil-structure interaction. The effects of factors like material quality, geometry of the structure, amount of openings, type of foundation or the actual state of preservation can be included in a global vulnerability index, which should indicate the building susceptibility to damage by differential settlements of a given magnitude. Vulnerability curves will represent the expected damage of each vulnerability class of building as a function of the settlement.

The total margin of exposure of ethanol and acetaldehyde for heavy drinkers consuming cider or vodka

Heavy drinkers in Scotland may consume 1600 g ethanol per week. Due to its low price, cider may be preferred over other beverages. Anecdotal evidence has linked cider to specific health hazards beyond other alcoholic beverages. To examine this hypothesis, nine apple and pear cider samples were chemically analysed for constituents and contaminants. None of the products exceeded regulatory or toxicological thresholds, but the regular occurrence of acetaldehyde in cider was detected. To provide a quantitative risk assessment, two collectives of exclusive drinkers of cider and vodka were compared and the intake of acetaldehyde was estimated using probabilistic MonteeCarlo type analysis. The cider consumers were found to ingest more than 200-times the amount of acetaldehyde consumed by vodka consumers. The margins of exposure (MOE) of acetaldehyde were 224 for the cider and over 220,000 for vodka consumers. However, if the effects of ethanol were considered in a cumulative assessment of the combined MOE, the effect of acetaldehyde was minor and the combined MOE for both groups was 0.3. We suggest that alcohol policy priority should be given on reducing ethanol intake by measures such as minimum pricing, rather than to focus on acetaldehyde.

Prenatal protease inhibitor use and risk of preterm birth among HIV-infected women initiating antiretroviral drugs during pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Conflicting results have been reported among studies of protease inhibitor (PI) use during pregnancy and preterm birth. Uncontrolled confounding by indication may explain some of the differences among studies. METHODS: In total, 777 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected pregnant women in a prospective cohort who were not receiving antiretroviral (ARV) treatment at conception were studied. Births <37 weeks gestation were reviewed, and deliveries due to spontaneous labor and/or rupture of membranes were identified. Risk of preterm birth and low birth weight (<2500 g) were evaluated by using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the study population, 558 (72%) received combination ARV with PI during pregnancy, and a total of 130 preterm births were observed. In adjusted analyses, combination ARV with PI was not significantly associated with spontaneous preterm birth, compared to ARV without PI (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-2.12). Sensitivity analyses that included women who received ARV prior to pregnancy also did not identify a significant association (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.84-2.16). Low birth weight results were similar. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence of an association between use of combination ARV with PI during pregnancy and preterm birth was found. Our study supports current guidelines that promote consideration of combination ARV for all HIV-infected pregnant women.

Importance of prostate volume in the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculators: results from the prostate biopsy collaborative group.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the predictive performance and potential clinical usefulness of risk calculators of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC RC) with and without information on prostate volume. METHODS: We studied 6 cohorts (5 European and 1 US) with a total of 15,300 men, all biopsied and with pre-biopsy TRUS measurements of prostate volume. Volume was categorized into 3 categories (25, 40, and 60 cc), to reflect use of digital rectal examination (DRE) for volume assessment. Risks of prostate cancer were calculated according to a ERSPC DRE-based RC (including PSA, DRE, prior biopsy, and prostate volume) and a PSA + DRE model (including PSA, DRE, and prior biopsy). Missing data on prostate volume were completed by single imputation. Risk predictions were evaluated with respect to calibration (graphically), discrimination (AUC curve), and clinical usefulness (net benefit, graphically assessed in decision curves). RESULTS: The AUCs of the ERSPC DRE-based RC ranged from 0.61 to 0.77 and were substantially larger than the AUCs of a model based on only PSA + DRE (ranging from 0.56 to 0.72) in each of the 6 cohorts. The ERSPC DRE-based RC provided net benefit over performing a prostate biopsy on the basis of PSA and DRE outcome in five of the six cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying men at increased risk for having a biopsy detectable prostate cancer should consider multiple factors, including an estimate of prostate volume.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Sociocultural and socioeconomic influences on type 2 diabetes risk in overweight/obese African-American and Latino-American children and adolescents.

PURPOSE: It is unclear whether sociocultural and socioeconomic factors are directly linked to type 2 diabetes risk in overweight/obese ethnic minority children and adolescents. This study examines the relationships between sociocultural orientation, household social position, and type 2 diabetes risk in overweight/obese African-American (n = 43) and Latino-American (n = 113) children and adolescents. METHODS: Sociocultural orientation was assessed using the Acculturation, Habits, and Interests Multicultural Scale for Adolescents (AHIMSA) questionnaire. Household social position was calculated using the Hollingshead Two-Factor Index of Social Position. Insulin sensitivity (SI), acute insulin response (AIRG) and disposition index (DI) were derived from a frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test (FSIGT). The relationships between AHIMSA subscales (i.e., integration, assimilation, separation, and marginalization), household social position and FSIGT parameters were assessed using multiple linear regression. RESULTS: For African-Americans, integration (integrating their family's culture with those of mainstream white-American culture) was positively associated with AIRG (β = 0.27 ± 0.09, r = 0.48, P < 0.01) and DI (β = 0.28 ± 0.09, r = 0.55, P < 0.01). For Latino-Americans, household social position was inversely associated with AIRG (β = -0.010 ± 0.004, r = -0.19, P = 0.02) and DI (β = -20.44 ± 7.50, r = -0.27, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Sociocultural orientation and household social position play distinct and opposing roles in shaping type 2 diabetes risk in African-American and Latino-American children and adolescents.

Association of Common Genetic Polymorphisms with Melanoma Patient IL-12p40 Blood Levels, Risk, and Outcomes.

Recent investigation has identified association of IL-12p40 blood levels with melanoma recurrence and patient survival. No studies have investigated associations of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with melanoma patient IL-12p40 blood levels or their potential contributions to melanoma susceptibility or patient outcome. In the current study, 818,237 SNPs were available for 1,804 melanoma cases and 1,026 controls. IL-12p40 blood levels were assessed among 573 cases (discovery), 249 cases (case validation), and 299 controls (control validation). SNPs were evaluated for association with log[IL-12p40] levels in the discovery data set and replicated in two validation data sets, and significant SNPs were assessed for association with melanoma susceptibility and patient outcomes. The most significant SNP associated with log[IL-12p40] was in the IL-12B gene region (rs6897260, combined P=9.26 × 10(-38)); this single variant explained 13.1% of variability in log[IL-12p40]. The most significant SNP in EBF1 was rs6895454 (combined P=2.24 × 10(-9)). A marker in IL12B was associated with melanoma susceptibility (rs3213119, multivariate P=0.0499; OR=1.50, 95% CI 1.00-2.24), whereas a marker in EBF1 was associated with melanoma-specific survival in advanced-stage patients (rs10515789, multivariate P=0.02; HR=1.93, 95% CI 1.11-3.35). Both EBF1 and IL12B strongly regulate IL-12p40 blood levels, and IL-12p40 polymorphisms may contribute to melanoma susceptibility and influence patient outcome.

Risk stratification of latent tuberculosis defined by combined interferon gamma release assays.

Most individuals infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis develop latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Some may progress to active disease and would benefit from preventive treatment yet no means currently exists to predict who will reactivate. Here, we provide an approach to stratify LTBI based on IFN-γ responses to two antigens, the recombinant Early-Secreted Antigen Target-6 (rESAT-6) and the latency antigen Heparin-Binding Haemagglutinin (HBHA).

Applying an Agility/Discipline Assessment for a Small Software Organisation

The adoption of agile software development methodologies may appear to be a rather straightforward process yielding instantly improved software in less time and increasingly satisfied customers. This paper will show that such a notion is a misunderstanding and can be harmful to small software development organisations. A more reasonable approach involves a careful risk assessment and framework for introducing agile practices to address specific risks. A case study with a small software development organisation is provided to show the assessment in practice and the resulting risk mitigation strategies for process improvement.

‘Risk, Politics and the ‘Scientification’ of Political Judgement: Prisoner Release and Conflict Transformation in Northern Ireland’

Drawing on research in Northern Ireland into the process of release under the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, this article explores the identification and classification of risk in relation to prisoners released early under the Sentences (NI) Act. The main argument is that conflict, post-conflict and transitional conditions expose more starkly the political underpinnings of risk-management strategy and the article demonstrates the particular variant of Politicized Risk Assessment (PRA) recently used in the release of prisoners in Northern Ireland

The less amorous Gammarus: predation risk affects mating decisions in Gammarus duebeni (Amphipoda)

We examined the trade-off between the behaviours associated with predator avoidance and mate acquisition in the mate-guarding amphipod crustacean Gammarus duebeni. We used laboratory experiments to investigate the impact of olfactory predator cues on activity, mate choice and mate-guarding behaviour of males and females. Pair formation declined under perceived risk of predation, reflecting reduced activity of both males and females and hence a reduced likelihood of encountering a mate. We also observed a reduction in the choosiness of both males and females. Under increased perceived predation risk, assessment of the female by the male was more likely to be followed by pair formation, and males showed a nonsignificant trend towards reduced discrimination in favour of large females and were less tenacious in their pair bond when they paired during exposure to predator cues. Females also showed less resistance behaviour, suggesting that both males and females trade off the costs of maximizing current reproductive success against the benefits of predator avoidance for survival and reproduction in the future. We discuss the implications of such context-dependent mating behaviours for ecological interactions between species and suggest that predators, via the effects of perceived predation risk on mate choice and mate guarding in the prey species, induce trait-mediated indirect effects with the potential to influence population dynamics and community structure. (C) 2008 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.