573 resultados para predictability


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A large historiographic tradition has studied the Brazilian state, yet we know relatively little about its internal dynamics and particularities. The role of informal, personal, and unintentional ties has remained underexplored in most policy network studies, mainly because of the pluralist origin of that tradition. It is possible to use network analysis to expand this knowledge by developing mesolevel analysis of those processes. This article proposes an analytical framework for studying networks inside policy communities. This framework considers the stable and resilient patterns that characterize state institutions, especially in contexts of low institutionalization, particularly those found in Latin America and Brazil. The article builds on research on urban policies in Brazil to suggest that networks made of institutional and personal ties structure state organizations internally and insert them,into broader political scenarios. These networks, which I call state fabric, frame politics, influence public policies, and introduce more stability and predictability than the majority of the literature usually considers. They also form a specific power resource-positional power, associated with the positions that political actors occupy-that influences politics inside and around the state.

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The quality concepts represent one of the important factors for the success of organizations and among these concepts the stabilization of the production process contributes to the improvement, waste reduction and increased competitiveness. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the production process of solid wood flooring on its predictability and capacity, based on its critical points. Therefore, the research was divided into three stages. The first one was the process mapping of the company and the elaboration of flowcharts for the activities. The second one was the identification and the evaluation of the critical points using FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) adapted methodology. The third one was the evaluation of the critical points applying the statistical process control and the determination of the process capability for the C-pk index. The results showed the existence of six processes, two of them are critical. In those two ones, fifteen points were considered critical and two of them, related with the dimension of the pieces and defects caused by sandpaper, were selected for evaluation. The productive process of the company is unstable and not capable to produce wood flooring according to the specifications and, therefore these specifications should be reevaluated.

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This article evaluates the long-term clinical performance of porcelain laminate veneers bonded to teeth prepared with the use of an additive mock-up and aesthetic pre-evaluative temporary (APT) technique over a 12-year period. Sixty-six patients were restored with 580 porcelain laminate veneers. The technique, used for diagnosis, esthetic design, tooth preparation, and provisional restoration fabrication, was based on the APT protocol. The influence of several factors on the durability of veneers was analyzed according to pre- and postoperative parameters. With utilization of the APT restoration, over 80% of tooth preparations were confined to the dental enamel. Over 12 years, 42 laminate veneers failed, but when the preparations were limited to the enamel, the failure rate resulting from debonding and microleakage decreased to 0%. Porcelain laminate veneers presented a successful clinical performance in terms of marginal adaptation, discoloration, gingival recession, secondary caries, postoperative sensitivity, and satisfaction with restoration shade at the end of 12 years. The APT technique facilitated diagnosis, communication, and preparation, providing predictability for the restorative treatment. Limiting the preparation depth to the enamel surface significantly increases the performance of porcelain laminate veneers. (Int J Periodontics Restorative Dent 2012;32:625-635.)

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A percepção visual depende do arcabouço sensorial e do processamento atencional. Este trabalho estudou o efeito, sobre o tempo de reação manual (TR), do tamanho, excentricidade e previsibilidade de estímulos visuais. No experimento 1 (n=8), um alvo foi apresentado aleatoriamente em uma de quatro excentricidades diferentes, possuindo três possíveis tamanhos. O experimento 2 (n=12) apresentava configuração similar, porém uma pista indicava o quadrante de maior probabilidade (70%) de apresentação do alvo. Os resultados mostraram um aumento do TR em função da excentricidade do alvo, além de uma diminuição do TR com o aumento do tamanho do alvo e indicação correta da pista. Uma análise das interações sugere uma superposição de mecanismos atencionais e puramente sensoriais compartilhando um estágio comum do processamento visual.

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AIM: To explore the biomechanical effects of the different implantation bone levels of Morse taper implants, employing a finite element analysis (FEA). METHODS: Dental implants (TitamaxCM) with 4x13 mm and 4x11 mm, and their respective abutments with 3.5 mm height, simulating a screwed premolar metal-ceramic crown, had their design performed using the software AnsysWorkbench 10.0. They were positioned in bone blocks, covered by 2.5 mm thickness of mucosa. The cortical bone was designed with 1.5 mm thickness and the trabecular bone completed the bone block. Four groups were formed: group 11CBL (11 mm implant length on cortical bone level), group 11TBL (11 mm implant length on trabecular bone level), group 13CBL (13mm implant length on cortical bone level) and group 13TBL (13 mm implant length on trabecular bone level). Oblique 200 N loads were applied. Von Mises equivalent stresses in cortical and trabecular bones were evaluated with the same design program. RESULTS: The results were shown qualitatively and quantitatively by standard scales for each type of bone. By the results obtained, it can be suggested that positioning the implant completely in trabecular bone brings harm with respect to the generated stresses. Its implantation in the cortical bone has advantages with respect to better anchoring and locking, reflecting a better dissipation of the stresses along the implant/bone interfaces. In addition, the search for anchoring the implant in its apical region in cortical bone is of great value to improve stabilization and consequently better stress distribution. CONCLUSIONS: The implant position slightly below the bone in relation to the bone crest brings advantages as the best long-term predictability with respect to the expected neck bone loss.

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The common thread of this thesis is the will of investigating properties and behavior of assemblies. Groups of objects display peculiar properties, which can be very far from the simple sum of respective components’ properties. This is truer, the smaller is inter-objects distance, i.e. the higher is their density, and the smaller is the container size. “Confinement” is in fact a key concept in many topics explored and here reported. It can be conceived as a spatial limitation, that yet gives origin to unexpected processes and phenomena based on inter-objects communication. Such phenomena eventually result in “non-linear properties”, responsible for the low predictability of large assemblies. Chapter 1 provides two insights on surface chemistry, namely (i) on a supramolecular assembly based on orthogonal forces, and (ii) on selective and sensitive fluorescent sensing in thin polymeric film. In chapters 2 to 4 confinement of molecules plays a major role. Most of the work focuses on FRET within core-shell nanoparticles, investigated both through a simulation model and through experiments. Exciting results of great applicative interest are drawn, such as a method of tuning emission wavelength at constant excitation, and a way of overcoming self-quenching processes by setting up a competitive deactivation channel. We envisage applications of these materials as labels for multiplexing analysis, and in all fields of fluorescence imaging, where brightness coupled with biocompatibility and water solubility is required. Adducts of nanoparticles and molecular photoswitches are investigated in the context of superresolution techniques for fluorescence microscopy. In chapter 5 a method is proposed to prepare a library of functionalized Pluronic F127, which gives access to a twofold “smart” nanomaterial, namely both (i)luminescent and (ii)surface-functionalized SCSSNPs. Focus shifts in chapter 6 to confinement effects in an upper size scale. Moving from nanometers to micrometers, we investigate the interplay between microparticles flowing in microchannels where a constriction affects at very long ranges structure and dynamics of the colloidal paste.

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L’elaborato ha lo scopo di presentare le nuove opportunità di business offerte dal Web. Il rivoluzionario cambiamento che la pervasività della Rete e tutte le attività correlate stanno portando, ha posto le aziende davanti ad un diverso modo di relazionarsi con i propri consumatori, che sono sempre più informati, consapevoli ed esigenti, e con la concorrenza. La sfida da accettare per rimanere competitivi sul mercato è significativa e il mutamento in rapido sviluppo: gli aspetti che contraddistinguono questo nuovo paradigma digitale sono, infatti, velocità, mutevolezza, ma al tempo stesso misurabilità, ponderabilità, previsione. Grazie agli strumenti tecnologici a disposizione e alle dinamiche proprie dei diversi spazi web (siti, social network, blog, forum) è possibile tracciare più facilmente, rispetto al passato, l’impatto di iniziative, lanci di prodotto, promozioni e pubblicità, misurandone il ritorno sull’investimento, oltre che la percezione dell’utente finale. Un approccio datacentrico al marketing, attraverso analisi di monitoraggio della rete, permette quindi al brand investimenti più mirati e ponderati sulla base di stime e previsioni. Tra le più significative strategie di marketing digitale sono citate: social advertising, keyword advertising, digital PR, social media, email marketing e molte altre. Sono riportate anche due case history: una come ottimo esempio di co-creation in cui il brand ha coinvolto direttamente il pubblico nel processo di produzione del prodotto, affidando ai fan della Pagina Facebook ufficiale la scelta dei gusti degli yogurt da mettere in vendita. La seconda, caso internazionale di lead generation, ha permesso al brand di misurare la conversione dei visitatori del sito (previa compilazione di popin) in reali acquirenti, collegando i dati di traffico del sito a quelli delle vendite. Esempio di come online e offline comunichino strettamente.

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This thesis is the result of a project aimed at the study of a crucial topic in finance: default risk, whose measurement and modelling have achieved increasing relevance in recent years. We investigate the main issues related to the default phenomenon, under both a methodological and empirical perspective. The topics of default predictability and correlation are treated with a constant attention to the modelling solutions and reviewing critically the literature. From the methodological point of view, our analysis results in the proposal of a new class of models, called Poisson Autoregression with Exogenous Covariates (PARX). The PARX models, including both autoregressive end exogenous components, are able to capture the dynamics of default count time series, characterized by persistence of shocks and slowly decaying autocorrelation. Application of different PARX models to the monthly default counts of US industrial firms in the period 1982-2011 allows an empirical insight of the defaults dynamics and supports the identification of the main default predictors at an aggregate level.

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This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

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La tesi di ricerca si propone di indagare il riflesso che i principi/valori producono sul parametro nel sindacato di legittimità costituzionale, al fine di verificarne le implicazioni sulla legalità, in termini di prevedibilità e certezza. In particolare, delineata la connessione tra principi e valori costituzionali e, ricostruito, secondo la teoria dell'ordinamento, il rapporto tra valori e normatività,si analizzano i riflessi prodotti, sul piano interpretativo, dall’apertura del parametro costituzionale alla logica dei valori, enfatizzandone le ricadute sul controllo di costituzionalità delle leggi. Identificato il nesso tra principi e valori nella capacità funzionale dei primi di realizzare i diritti fondamentali, si è inteso rimarcare come la più estesa realizzazione dei principi-valori costituzionali potrebbe compiersi a spese della legge e della certezza del diritto, in una relazione inversamente proporzionale. Ciò apparirebbe evidente dall’ottica privilegiata della materia penale, per cui una legalità materiale, letta alla luce di criteri di adeguatezza e di ragionevole proporzione, seppur vicina alle esigenze di giustizia del caso concreto, se spinta in eccessi interpretativi rischia di invadere il campo del legislatore, unico deputato a compiere scelte di valore.

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In my doctoral thesis I investigated the evolution of demographic traits within eusocial Hymenoptera. In the social bees, wasps and ants, eusociality has a unique effect on life span evolution as female larvae with the same genetic background can develop through phenotypic plasticity to a queen or a worker with vastly diverging life-history traits. Ant queens belong to the longest-lived insect species, while workers in most species live only a fraction of the queen’s life span. The average colony size of a species is positively correlated with social complexity, division of labor and diverging morphological female phenotypes all of which also affect life span. Therefore the demographic traits of interest in this thesis were life span and colony size. To understand the evolution of worker life span I applied a trade-off model that includes both hierarchical levels important in eusocial systems, namely the colony- and the individual-level. I showed that the evolution of worker life span may be an adaptive trait on the colony level to optimize resource allocation and therefore fitness in response to different levels of extrinsic mortality. A shorter worker life span as a result of reduced resource investments under high levels of extrinsic mortality increases colony fitness. In a further study I showed that Lasius niger colonies produce different aging phenotypes throughout colony development. Smaller colonies which apply a different foraging strategy than larger colonies produced smaller workers, which in turn have a longer life span as compared to larger workers produced in larger colonies. With the switch to cooperative foraging in growing colonies individual workers become less important for the colony caused by their increasing redundancy. Alternatively a trade of between growth and life span may lead to the results found in this study. A further comparative analysis to study the effect of colony size on life span showed a correlation between queen and worker life span when colony size is taken into account. While neither worker nor queen life span was associated with colony size, the differences between queen and worker life span increase with larger average colony sizes across all eusocial Hymenoptera. As colony size affects both queen and worker life span, I aimed to understand which factors lead to the small colony sizes displayed by some ant species. I therefore analyzed per-capita productivity at different colony sizes of eight cavity dwelling ant species. Most colonies of the study species grew larger than optimal productivity predicted. Larger colony size was shown to increase colony homeostasis, the predictability of future productivity and in turn the survival probability of the colony. I also showed that species that deploy an individual foraging mode may circumvent the density dependent decline in foraging success by splitting the colony to several nest sites.

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Recent advances have revealed that during exogenous airway challenge, airway diameters can not be adequately predicted by their initial diameters. Furthermore, airway diameters can also vary greatly in time on scales shorter than a breath. In order to better understand these phenomena, we developed a multiscale model which allows us to simulate aerosol challenge in the airways during ventilation. The model incorporates agonist-receptor binding kinetics to govern the temporal response of airway smooth muscle (ASM) contraction on individual airway segments, which together with airway wall mechanics, determines local airway caliber. Global agonist transport and deposition is coupled with pressure-driven flow, linking local airway constrictions with global flow dynamics. During the course of challenge, airway constriction alters the flow pattern, redistributing agonist to less constricted regions. This results in a negative feedback which may be a protective property of the normal lung. As a consequence, repetitive challenge can cause spatial constriction patterns to evolve in time, resulting in a loss of predictability of airway diameters. Additionally, the model offers new insight into several phenomena including the intra- and inter-breath dynamics of airway constriction throughout the tree structure.

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Today, the bleaching of nonvital, discolored teeth is a low-risk routine treatment for improving esthetics. This review article focuses on the etiology of tooth discolorations, different treatment techniques, and risks of bleaching procedures. Some tooth discolorations in endodontically treated teeth are caused by dental treatments. The three most popular techniques for nonvital tooth bleaching are the walking bleach technique, inside/outside bleaching, and in-office bleaching. The walking bleach technique is a relatively reliable, fairly simple technique for dentists and patients. Inside/outside bleaching can be used additionally when internal and external bleaching must be combined. Inoffice bleaching seems to be a short-term solution, the effects of which can largely be attributed to dehydration of the teeth. There are still some open questions concerning the bleaching agents. Improved safety seems desirable with regard to adding thiourea as a scavenger of radicals or newer materials such as sodium percarbonate. The thermocatalytic technique, insufficient cervical sealing, and high concentrations of bleaching agents should be avoided, as this can increase the risk of cervical root resorptions. Patients should be informed about the low predictability of bleaching success and the risk of recurrent discoloration. The risk of cervical root resorption should be discussed with the patient. There is a strong correlation between root resorption and dental trauma.

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PURPOSE: The advent of imaging software programs has proved to be useful for diagnosis, treatment planning, and outcome measurement, but precision of 3-dimensional (3D) surgical simulation still needs to be tested. This study was conducted to determine whether the virtual surgery performed on 3D models constructed from cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) can correctly simulate the actual surgical outcome and to validate the ability of this emerging technology to recreate the orthognathic surgery hard tissue movements in 3 translational and 3 rotational planes of space. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Construction of pre- and postsurgery 3D models from CBCTs of 14 patients who had combined maxillary advancement and mandibular setback surgery and 6 patients who had 1-piece maxillary advancement surgery was performed. The postsurgery and virtually simulated surgery 3D models were registered at the cranial base to quantify differences between simulated and actual surgery models. Hotelling t tests were used to assess the differences between simulated and actual surgical outcomes. RESULTS: For all anatomic regions of interest, there was no statistically significant difference between the simulated and the actual surgical models. The right lateral ramus was the only region that showed a statistically significant, but small difference when comparing 2- and 1-jaw surgeries. CONCLUSIONS: Virtual surgical methods were reliably reproduced. Oral surgery residents could benefit from virtual surgical training. Computer simulation has the potential to increase predictability in the operating room.

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There is a demand for technologies able to assess the perfusion of surgical flaps quantitatively and reliably to avoid ischemic complications. The aim of this study is to test a new high-speed high-definition laser Doppler imaging (LDI) system (FluxEXPLORER, Microvascular Imaging, Lausanne, Switzerland) in terms of preoperative mapping of the vascular supply (perforator vessels) and postoperative flow monitoring. The FluxEXPLORER performs perfusion mapping of an area 9 x 9 cm with a resolution of 256 x 256 pixels within 6 s in high-definition imaging mode. The sensitivity and predictability to localize perforators is expressed by the coincidence of preoperatively assessed LDI high flow spots with intraoperatively verified perforators in nine patients. 18 free flaps are monitored before, during, and after total ischemia. 63% of all verified perforators correspond to a high flow spot, and 38% of all high flow spots correspond to a verified perforator (positive predictive value). All perfused flaps reveal a value of above 221 perfusion units (PUs), and all values obtained in the ischemic flaps are beneath 187 PU. In summary, we conclude that the present LDI system can serve as a reliable, fast, and easy-to-handle tool to detect ischemia in free flaps, whereas perforator vessels cannot be detected appropriately.