Mortality associated with diabetes and cardiovascular disease in older women.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) recommend diabetes as a CVD risk equivalent. However, reports that have examined the risk of diabetes in comparison to pre-existing CVD are lacking among older women. We aimed to assess whether diabetes was associated with a similar risk of total and cause-specific mortality as a history of CVD in older women. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied 9218 women aged 68 years or older enrolled in a prospective cohort study (Study of Osteoporotic Fracture) during a mean follow-up period of 11.7 years and compared all-cause, cardiovascular and coronary heart disease mortality among 4 groups: non-diabetic women with and without existing CVD, diabetic women with and without existing CVD. Mean (SD) age of the participants was 75.2 (5.3) years, 3.5% reported diabetes and 6.8% reported existing CVD. During follow-up, 5117 women died with 36% from CVD. The multivariate adjusted risk of cardiovascular mortality was increased among both non-diabetic women with CVD (hazard ratio (HR) 2.32, 95% CI: 1.97-2.74, P<0.001) and diabetic women without CVD (HR 2.06, CI: 1.62-2.64, P<0.001) compared to non-diabetic women without existing CVD. All-cause, cardiovascular and coronary mortality of non-diabetic women with CVD were not significantly different from diabetic women without CVD. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Older diabetic women without CVD have a similar risk of cardiovascular mortality compared to non-diabetic women with pre-existing CVD. The equivalence of diabetes and CVD seems to extend to older women, supporting current guidelines for cardiovascular prevention.

Sterblichkeit während Grippeepidemien in der Schweiz 1969-1985. [Mortality in influenza epidemics in Switzerland 1969-1985].

In Switzerland from 1969-1985, 9 out of 11 influenza epidemics were associated with a statistically significant increase in mortality. A total of 12,202 excess deaths from all causes was identified. Expected deaths were forecast for each epidemic period separately for 4 age groups using Fourier and Arima modeling. 75.7% of all-cause excess deaths occurred in age group 70 to 89 and 5.1% in age group 1-59. In the 70-89 years old group the excess mortality risk during influenza epidemics was 271.6 per 100,000, whereas in age group 1-59 it was only 1.7 per 100,000. Only 40% of all excess deaths had been ascribed to acute respiratory conditions. Influenza viruses A H3N2 were the most frequently identified agents. In some instances mortality increased before the morbidity reports of the Swiss practitioners indicated the occurrence of an epidemic. Also, morbidity reporting decreased over successive years. A decrease in mortality following the epidemics was not observed. A more complete vaccination of high risk patients in Switzerland is desirable.

In-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients undergoing early surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis.

IMPORTANCE: There are limited prospective, controlled data evaluating survival in patients receiving early surgery vs medical therapy for prosthetic valve endocarditis (PVE). OBJECTIVE: To determine the in-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients with PVE who undergo valve replacement during index hospitalization compared with patients who receive medical therapy alone, after controlling for survival and treatment selection bias. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006 in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study (ICE-PCS), a prospective, multinational, observational cohort of patients with infective endocarditis. Patients hospitalized with definite right- or left-sided PVE were included in the analysis. We evaluated the effect of treatment assignment on mortality, after adjusting for biases using a Cox proportional hazards model that included inverse probability of treatment weighting and surgery as a time-dependent covariate. The cohort was stratified by probability (propensity) for surgery, and outcomes were compared between the treatment groups within each stratum. INTERVENTIONS: Valve replacement during index hospitalization (early surgery) vs medical therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: In-hospital and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1025 patients with PVE, 490 patients (47.8%) underwent early surgery and 535 individuals (52.2%) received medical therapy alone. Compared with medical therapy, early surgery was associated with lower in-hospital mortality in the unadjusted analysis and after controlling for treatment selection bias (in-hospital mortality: hazard ratio [HR], 0.44 [95% CI, 0.38-0.52] and lower 1-year mortality: HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.49-0.67]). The lower mortality associated with surgery did not persist after adjustment for survivor bias (in-hospital mortality: HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.76-1.07] and 1-year mortality: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.89-1.23]). Subgroup analysis indicated a lower in-hospital mortality with early surgery in the highest surgical propensity quintile (21.2% vs 37.5%; P = .03). At 1-year follow-up, the reduced mortality with surgery was observed in the fourth (24.8% vs 42.9%; P = .007) and fifth (27.9% vs 50.0%; P = .007) quintiles of surgical propensity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Prosthetic valve endocarditis remains associated with a high 1-year mortality rate. After adjustment for differences in clinical characteristics and survival bias, early valve replacement was not associated with lower mortality compared with medical therapy in the overall cohort. Further studies are needed to define the effect and timing of surgery in patients with PVE who have indications for surgery.

The recent decline in mortality from Hodgkin lymphomas in central and eastern Europe

BACKGROUND: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is a largely curable disease and its mortality had steadily declined in western Europe since the late 1960s. Only modest declines were, however, observed in central/eastern Europe. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We updated trends in mortality from HL in various European areas up to 2004 and analyzed patterns in incidence for selected European countries providing national data. RESULTS: In most western European countries, HL mortality continued to steadily decline up to the mid 2000s. More recent reductions were also observed in eastern European countries. Overall, mortality from HL declined from 1.17/100,000 (age-standardized, world population) in 1980-1989 to 1.42/100,000 in 2000-2004 in men from the 15 member states of the European Union (EU) from western and northern Europe. In the EU 10 accession countries of central and eastern Europe, male mortality from HL was 1.42/100,000 in 1980-1984, 1.32 in 1990-1994, and declined to 0.76 in 2000-2004. Similar trends were observed in women. No consistent patterns were found for HL incidence. CONCLUSIONS: The present work confirms the persistent declines in HL mortality in western European countries, and shows favorable patterns over more recent calendar years in central/eastern ones, where rates, however, are still at levels observed in western Europe in the early 1990s.

Mortality associated with diabetes mellitus in comparison with history of cardiovascular disease in older women.

Current treatment guidelines consider diabetes to be equivalent to existing cardiovascular disease (CVD), but few data exist about the relative importance of these risk factors for total and CVD mortality in older women.We studied 9704 women aged >= 65 years enrolled in a prospective cohort study (Study of Osteoporotic Fracture) during a mean follow-up of 13 years and compared all-cause and CVD mortality among non-diabetic women without and with history of CVD at baseline and diabetic women without and with history of CVD. Diabetes mellitus and CVD were defined as self-report of physician diagnoses. Cause of death was adjudicated from death certificates and medical records when available. Ascertainment of vital status was 99% complete. Multivariate Cox hazard models adjusted for age, smoking, physical activity, systolic blood pressure, waist girth and education were used to compare mortality among the four groups with non-diabetic women without CVD as the referent group. At baseline mean age was 71.7 } 5.3 years, 7.0% reported diabetes mellitus and 14.5% reported prior CVD. 4257 women died during follow-up, 36.6% were attributed to CVD. Compared to non-diabetic women without prior CVD, the risk of CVD mortality was elevated among both non-diabetic women with CVD (HR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.60-2.07, P <0.001) and diabetic women without prior CVD (HR = 2.24, CI: 1.87-2.69, P <0.001). CVD mortality was highest among diabetic women with CVD (HR = 3.41, CI: 2.61-4.45, P <0.001). Compared to non-diabetic women with CVD, diabetic women without prior CVD had a significantly higher adjusted HR for total and CVD mortality (P < 0.001 and P <0.05 respectively). Older diabetic women without prior CVD have a higher risk of all-cause and CVD mortality compared to nondiabetic women with pre-existing CVD. For older women, these data support the equivalence of prior CVD and diabetes mellitus in current guidelines for the prevention of CVD in primary care.

Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

Background: Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods: The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results: There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion: We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

Toxicidad de ciromacina sobre el parasitoide Encarsia tricolor Foërster (Hym. Aphelinidae)

Se ha estudiado la toxicidad del regulador del crecimiento de insectos (RCI) ciro- macina sobre el parasitoide Encarsia tricolor Foérster. Ciromacina se incluye en la Categoría 1 de la clasificación de la OILB/SROP (producto inocuo) si se mide en términos de reducción de la fecundidad la reducción de la capacidad beneficiosa que produce. Sin embargo, se incluye en la Categoría 2 (ligeramente dañino) si esta reducción se mide en términos de la reducción del número de adultos de la descendencia. El tratamiento con ciromacina a la concentración recomendada aumentó significativamente la mortalidad de huevos y larvas de E. tricolor, hasta un 55% en el caso de larvas jóvenes. Considerando estos resultados, se sugiere que cuando se trata de un RCI, la medida de la reducción de la capacidad beneficiosa que produce debe realizarse de modo diferente al utiizado con los plaguicidas "clásicos".

Low C-reactive protein values at admission predict mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae that require intensive care management.

PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) caused by S. pneumoniae who require intensive care unit (ICU) management, and to assess the prognostic values of these risk factors at the time of admission. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of all consecutive patients with CAP caused by S. pneumoniae who were admitted to the 32-bed medico-surgical ICU of a community and referral university hospital between 2002 and 2011. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on variables available at admission. RESULTS: Among the 77 adult patients with severe CAP caused by S. pneumoniae who required ICU management, 12 patients died (observed mortality rate 15.6 %). Univariate analysis indicated that septic shock and low C-reactive protein (CRP) values at admission were associated with an increased risk of death. In a multivariate model, after adjustment for age and gender, septic shock [odds ratio (OR), confidence interval 95 %; 4.96, 1.11-22.25; p = 0.036], and CRP (OR 0.99, 0.98-0.99 p = 0.034) remained significantly associated with death. Finally, we assessed the discriminative ability of CRP to predict mortality by computing its receiver operating characteristic curve. The CRP value cut-off for the best sensitivity and specificity was 169.5 mg/L to predict hospital mortality with an area under the curve of 0.72 (0.55-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality of patients with S. pneumoniae CAP requiring ICU management was much lower than predicted by severity scores. The presence of septic shock and a CRP value at admission <169.5 mg/L predicted a fatal outcome.

Is the adiposity-associated FTO gene variant related to all-cause mortality independent of adiposity? Meta-analysis of data from 169,551 Caucasian adults.

Previously, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs9939609, in the FTO gene showed a much stronger association with all-cause mortality than expected from its association with body mass index (BMI), body fat mass index (FMI) and waist circumference (WC). This finding implies that the SNP has strong pleiotropic effects on adiposity and adiposity-independent pathological pathways that leads to increased mortality. To investigate this further, we conducted a meta-analysis of similar data from 34 longitudinal studies including 169,551 adult Caucasians among whom 27,100 died during follow-up. Linear regression showed that the minor allele of the FTO SNP was associated with greater BMI (n = 169,551; 0.32 kg m(-2) ; 95% CI 0.28-0.32, P < 1 × 10(-32) ), WC (n = 152,631; 0.76 cm; 0.68-0.84, P < 1 × 10(-32) ) and FMI (n = 48,192; 0.17 kg m(-2) ; 0.13-0.22, P = 1.0 × 10(-13) ). Cox proportional hazard regression analyses for mortality showed that the hazards ratio (HR) for the minor allele of the FTO SNPs was 1.02 (1.00-1.04, P = 0.097), but the apparent excess risk was eliminated after adjustment for BMI and WC (HR: 1.00; 0.98-1.03, P = 0.662) and for FMI (HR: 1.00; 0.96-1.04, P = 0.932). In conclusion, this study does not support that the FTO SNP is associated with all-cause mortality independently of the adiposity phenotypes.

Contribution of early detection and adjuvant treatments to breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Reductions in breast cancer (BC) mortality in Western countries have been attributed to the use of screening mammography and adjuvant treatments. The goal of this work was to analyze the contributions of both interventions to the decrease in BC mortality between 1975 and 2008 in Catalonia. Methodology/Principal Findings: A stochastic model was used to quantify the contribution of each intervention. Age standardized BC mortality rates for calendar years 1975-2008 were estimated in four hypothetical scenarios: 1) Only screening, 2) Only adjuvant treatment, 3) Both interventions, and 4) No intervention. For the 30-69 age group, observed Catalan BC mortality rates per 100,000 women-year rose from 29.4 in 1975 to 38.3 in 1993, and afterwards continuously decreased to 23.2 in 2008. If neither of the two interventions had been used, in 2008 the estimated BC mortality would have been 43.5, which, compared to the observed BC mortality rate, indicates a 46.7% reduction. In 2008 the reduction attributable to screening was 20.4%, to adjuvant treatments was 15.8% and to both interventions 34.1%. Conclusions/Significance: Screening and adjuvant treatments similarly contributed to reducing BC mortality in Catalonia. Mathematical models have been useful to assess the impact of interventions addressed to reduce BC mortality that occurred over nearly the same periods.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015 : does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: A total of 1 359 100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766 200 men and 592 900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100 000 men and 83.9/100 000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100 000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates-though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325 000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.

Statins are associated with decreased mortality risk after status epilepticus.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Statins display anti-inflammatory and anti-epileptogenic properties in animal models, and may reduce the epilepsy risk in elderly humans; however, a possible modulating role on outcome in patients with status epilepticus (SE) has not been assessed. METHODS: This cohort study was based on a prospective registry including all consecutive adults with incident SE treated in our center between April 2006 and September 2012. SE outcome was categorized at hospital discharge into 'return to baseline', 'new disability' and 'mortality'. The role of potential predictors, including statins treatment on admission, was evaluated using a multinomial logistic regression model. RESULTS: Amongst 427 patients identified, information on statins was available in 413 (97%). Mean age was 60.9 (±17.8) years; 201 (49%) were women; 211 (51%) had a potentially fatal SE etiology; and 191 (46%) experienced generalized-convulsive or non-convulsive SE in coma. Statins (simvastatin, atorvastatin or pravastatin) were prescribed prior to admission in 76 (18%) subjects, mostly elderly. Whilst 208 (50.4%) patients returned to baseline, 58 (14%) died. After adjustment for established SE outcome predictors (age, etiology, SE severity score), statins correlated significantly with lower mortality (relative risk ratio 0.38, P = 0.046). CONCLUSION: This study suggests for the first time that exposure to statins before an SE episode is related to its outcome, involving a possible anti-epileptogenic role. Other studies are needed to confirm this intriguing finding.

First survey of fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) and parasitoid diversity among myrtaceae fruit across the state of Bahia, Brazil

The objective of this study was to evaluate the diversity of fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) species that use myrtaceous fruit, particularly guava, as hosts in several localities in the state of Bahia and to determine the infestation rates, pupal viability rates, and fruit fly-parasitoid associations. Sampling of myrtaceous fruit was carried out in 24 municipalities in different regions in the state of Bahia. Four fruit fly species, Anastrepha fraterculus, Anastrepha zenildae, Anastrepha sororcula, and Ceratitis capitata were obtained from the collected fruit. Three parasitoid species (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) emerged from Anastrepha larvae/pupae, Doryctobracon areolatus, Utetes anastrephae, and Asobara anastrephae. Doryctobracon areolatus emerged from A. fraterculus, A. sororcula and A. zenildae; Utetes anastrephae emerged from A. fraterculus and A. zenildae; and Asobara anastrephae emerged from A. fraterculus. Fruit fly and myrtaceous fruit associations are reported for the first time in several municipalities in the state of Bahia. A. zenildae was found infesting Syzygium malaccense for the first time in Brazil.