The Stagnation Regime of the New Keynesian Model and Current US Policy

In Evans, Guse, and Honkapohja (2008) the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable under adaptive learning, and unstable deflationary paths can arise after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. In the current paper a modified model is presented that includes a locally stable stagnation regime as a possible outcome arising from large expectation shocks. Policy implications are examined. Sufficiently large temporary increases in government spending can dislodge the economy from the stagnation regime and restore the natural stabilizing dynamics. More specific policy proposals are presented and discussed.

The Growth in Inter-connectedness in the Scottish Economy, 1998-2007; a disaggregated analysis

The measurement of inter-connectedness in an economy using input-output tables is not new, however much of the previous literature has not had any explicit dynamic dimension. Studies have tried to estimate the degree of inter-relatedness for an economy at a given point in time using one input-output table, some have compared different economies at a point in time but few have looked at the question of how interconnectedness within an economy changes over time. The publication in 2010 of a consistent series of input-output tables for Scotland offers the researcher the opportunity to track changes in the degree of inter-connectedness over the seven year period 1998 to 2007. The paper is in two parts. A simple measure of inter-connectedness is introduced in the first part of the paper and applied to the Scottish tables. In the second part of the paper an extraction method is applied to sector by sector to the tables in order to estimate how interconnectedness has changed over time for each industrial sector.

Accuracy of a new transmittance-reflectance pulse oximetry sensor in critically ill neonates.

OBJECTIVE: To test the accuracy of a new pulse oximeter sensor based on transmittance and reflectance. This sensor makes transillumination of tissue unnecessary and allows measurements on the hand, forearm, foot, and lower limb. DESIGN: Prospective, open, nonrandomized criterion standard study. SETTING: Neonatal intensive care unit, tertiary care center. PATIENTS: Sequential sample of 54 critically ill neonates (gestational age 27 to 42 wks; postnatal age 1 to 28 days) with arterial catheters in place. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 99 comparisons between pulse oximetry and arterial saturation were obtained. Comparison of femoral or umbilical arterial blood with transcutaneous measurements on the lower limb (n = 66) demonstrated an excellent correlation (r2 = .96). The mean difference was +1.44% +/- 3.51 (SD) % (range -11% to +8%). Comparison of the transcutaneous values with the radial artery saturation from the corresponding upper limb (n = 33) revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.94 with a mean error of +0.66% +/- 3.34% (range -6% to +7%). The mean difference between noninvasive and invasive measurements was least with the test sensor on the hand, intermediate on the calf and arm, and greatest on the foot. The mean error and its standard deviation were slightly larger for arterial saturation values < 90% than for values > or = 90%. CONCLUSION: Accurate pulse oximetry saturation can be acquired from the hand, forearm, foot, and calf of critically ill newborns using this new sensor.

The Growth in Inter-connectedness in the Scottish Economy 1998-2007; a disaggregated analysis.

The measurement of inter-connectedness in an economy using input-output tables is not new, however much of the previous literature has not had any explicit dynamic dimension. Studies have tried to estimate the degree of inter-relatedness for an economy at a given point in time using one input-output table, some have compared different economies at a point in time but few have looked at the question of how interconnectedness within an economy changes over time. The publication in 2010 of a consistent series of input-output tables for Scotland offers the researcher the opportunity to track changes in the degree of inter-connectedness over the seven year period 1998 to 2007. The paper is in two parts. A simple measure of inter-connectedness is introduced in the first part of the paper and applied to the Scottish tables. In the second part of the paper an extraction method is applied to sector by sector to the tables in order to estimate how interconnectedness has changed over time for each industrial sector.

The Optimal Degree of Monetary-Discretion in a New Keynesian Model with Private Information

This paper considers the optimal degree of discretion in monetary policy when the central bank conducts policy based on its private information about the state of the economy and is unable to commit. Society seeks to maximize social welfare by imposing restrictions on the central bank's actions over time, and the central bank takes these restrictions and the New Keynesian Phillips curve as constraints. By solving a dynamic mechanism design problem we find that it is optimal to grant "constrained discretion" to the central bank by imposing both upper and lower bounds on permissible inflation, and that these bounds must be set in a history-dependent way. The optimal degree of discretion varies over time with the severity of the time-inconsistency problem, and, although no discretion is optimal when the time-inconsistency problem is very severe, our numerical experiment suggests that no-discretion is a transient phenomenon, and that some discretion is granted eventually.

Inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve in EU-4

The paper seeks to shed light on inflation dynamics of four new EU member states: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. To this end, the New Keynesian Phillips curve augmented for open economies is estimated and additional statistical tests applied. We find the following. (1) The claim of New Keynesians that the real marginal cost is the main inflation-forcing variable is fragile. (2) Inflation seems to be driven by external factors. (3) Although inflation holds a forward-looking component, the backward-looking component is substantial. An intuitive explanation for higher inflation persistence may be rather adaptive than rational price setting of local firms.

Rethinking economy-wide rebound measures: an unbiased proposal

In spite of having been first introduced in the last half of the ninetieth century, the debate about the possible rebound effects from energy efficiency improvements is still an open question in the economic literature. This paper contributes to the existing research on this issue proposing an unbiased measure for economy-wide rebound effects. The novelty of this economy-wide rebound measure stems from the fact that not only actual energy savings but also potential energy savings are quantified under general equilibrium conditions. Our findings indicate that the use of engineering savings instead of general equilibrium potential savings downward biases economy-wide rebound effects and upward-biases backfire effects. The discrepancies between the traditional indicator and our proposed measure are analysed in the context of the Spanish economy.

The New Institutions of Transatlantic Aviation

This article focuses on the institutions of transatlantic aviation since 1945, and aims at extracting from this historical process topical policy implications. Using the methodology of an analytic narrative, we describe and explain the creation of the international cartel institutions in the 1940s, their operation throughout the 1950s and 60s, their increasing vulnerability in the 1970s, and then the progressive liberalization of the whole system. Our analytic narrative has a natural end, marked by the signing of an Open Skies Agreement between the US and the EU in 2007. We place particular explanatory power on (a) the progressive liberalization of the US domestic market, and (b) the active role of the European Commission in Europe. More specifically, we explain these developments using two frameworks. First, a “political limit pricing” model, which seemed promising, then failed, and then seemed promising again because it failed. Second, a strategic bargaining model inspired by Susanne Schmidt’s analysis of how the European Commission uses the threat of infringement proceedings to force member governments into line and obtain the sole negotiating power in transatlantic aviation.

Innate immunogenetics: a tool for exploring new frontiers of host defence.

The discovery of innate immune genes, such as those encoding Toll-like receptors (TLRs), nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain-like receptors (NLRs), and related signal-transducing molecules, has led to a substantial improvement of our understanding of innate immunity. Recent immunogenetic studies have associated polymorphisms of the genes encoding TLRs, NLRs, and key signal-transducing molecules, such as interleukin-1 receptor-associated kinase 4 (IRAK4), with increased susceptibility to, or outcome of, infectious diseases. With the availability of high-throughput genotyping techniques, it is becoming increasingly evident that analyses of genetic polymorphisms of innate immune genes will further improve our knowledge of the host antimicrobial defence response and help in identifying individuals who are at increased risk of life-threatening infections. This is likely to open new perspectives for the development of diagnostic, predictive, and preventive management strategies to combat infectious diseases.

Comparison of the efficacy and longevity of nonpenetrating glaucoma surgery with and without a new, nonabsorbable hydrophilic implant.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy and longevity of nonpenetrating glaucoma surgery with and without the use of a nonabsorbable hydrophilic implant at the Oxford Eye Centre, Johannesburg, South Africa, and the Glaucoma Unit, Jules Gonin Ophthalmic Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a nonrandomized, prospective study between March 1997 and December 2001, 48 eyes of 32 patients aged 18 to 86 years with primary open-angle glaucoma underwent nonpenetrating glaucoma surgery; 25 eyes with the implant and 23 eyes without it. Intraocular pressure (IOP) was recorded preoperatively and postoperatively at 1, 7, and 14 days, at 1, 3, and 6 months, and thereafter every 6 months. RESULTS: The mean preoperative IOP was 27.5 +/- 11.8 mm Hg (range, 20 to 64 mm Hg) in the implant group and 24.8 +/- 7.1 mm Hg (range, 16 to 38 mm Hg) in the control group. During the first 18 months of follow-up, both groups showed identical IOP progression and the mean IOP remained less than 14 mm Hg. After 2 years of follow-up, the IOP started to rise in the control group but remained stable in the implant group. After 30 months, the mean IOP was 12.4 +/- 2 mm Hg and the IOP decrease in percentage was 62% +/- 6% in the implant group (n = 13) versus 16.1 +/- 3 mm Hg and 34% +/- 13% in the control group (n = 15) (mean IOP, P = .0022; mean IOP decrease in percentage, P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: During the first 18 months, there was no difference in the outcomes between the two groups. After 2 years of follow-up, the mean IOP was lower and the IOP decrease in percentage was greater in the implant group compared with the control group.

New insights into the long-term evolutionary history of the avian MHC

SummaryGene duplication and neofunctidnalization are important processes in the evolution of phenotypic complexity. They account for important evolutionary novelties that confer ecological adaptation, such as the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), a multigene family with a central role in vertebrates' adaptive immune system. Multigene families, which evolved in large part through duplication, represent promising systems to study the still strongly depbated relative roles of neutral and adaptive processes in the evolution of phenotypic complexity. Detailed knowledge on ecological function and a well-characterized evolutionary history place the mammals' MHC amongst ideal study systems. However mammalian MHCs usually encompass several million base pairs and hold a large number of functional and non-functional duplicate genes, which makes their study complex. Avian MHCs on the other hand are usually way more compact, but the reconstruction of. their evolutionary history has proven notoriously difficult. However, no focused attempt has been undertaken so far to study the avian MHC evolutionary history in a broad phylogenetic context and using adequate gene regions.In the present PhD, we were able to make important contributions to the understanding of the long-term evolution of the avian MHC class II Β (MHCI1B). First, we isolated and characterized MHCIIB genes in barn owl (Tyto alba?, Strigiformes, Tytonidae), a species from an avian lineage in which MHC has not been studied so far. Our results revealed that with only two functional MHCIIB genes the MHC organization of barn owl may be similar to the 'minimal essential' MHC of chicken (Gallus gallus), indicating that simple MHC organization may be ancestral to birds. Taking advantage of the sequence information from barn owl, we studied the evolution of MHCIIB genes in 13 additional species of 'typical' owls (Strigiformes, Strigidae). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that according to their function, in owls the peptide-binding region (PBR) encoding exon 2 and the non-PBR encoding exon 3 evolve by different patterns. Exon 2 exhibited an evolutionary history of positive selection and recombination, while exon 3 traced duplication history and revealed two paralogs evolving divergently from each other in owls, and in a shorebird, the great snipe {Gallinago media). The results from exon 3 were the first ever from birds to demonstrate gene orthology in species that diverged tens of millions of years ago, and strongly questioned whether the taxa studied before provided an adequate picture of avian MHC evolution. In a follow-up study, we aimed at explaining a striking pattern revealed by phylogenetic trees analyzing the owl sequences along with MHCIIB sequences from other birds: One owl paralog (termed DAB1) grouped with sequences of passerines and falcons, while the other (DAB2) grouped with wildfowl, penguins and birds of prey. This could be explained by either a duplication event preceding the evolution of these bird orders, or by convergent evolution of similar sequences in a number of orders. With extensive phylogenetic analyses we were able to show, that indeed a duplication event preceeded the major avian radiation -100 my ago, and that following this duplication, the paralogs evolved under positive selection. Furthermore, we showed that the divergently evolving amino acid residues in the MHCIIB-encoded β-chain potentially interact with the MHCI I α-chain, and that molecular coevolution of the interacting residues may have been involved in the divergent evolution of the MHCIIB paralogs.The findings of this PhD are of particular interest to the understanding of the evolutionary history of the avian MHC and, by providing essential information on long-term gene history in the avian MHC, open promising perspectives for advances in the understanding of the evolution of multigene families in general, and for avian MHC organization in particular. Amongst others I discuss the importance of including protein structure in the phylogenetic study of multigene families, and the roles of ecological versus molecular selection pressures. I conclude by providing a population genomic perspective on avian MHC, which may serve as a basis for future research to investigate the relative roles of neutral processes involving effective population size effects and of adaptation in the evolution of avian MHC diversity and organization.RésuméLa duplication de gènes et leur néo-fonctionnalisation sont des processus importants dans l'évolution de la complexité phénotypique. Ils sont impliqués dans l'apparition d'importantes nouveautés évolutives favorisant l'adaptation écologique, comme c'est le cas pour le complexe majeur d'histocompatibilité

Proposal of a new classification for optimising outcome assessment following partial cricotracheal resections in severe pediatric subglottic stenosis.

OBJECTIVE: Creation of a patent subglottic airway after partial cricotracheal resection (PCTR) may not always result in successful decannulation due to associated parameters such as co-morbidity and/or glottic involvement. We classified patients after incorporating these additional parameters into the original Myer-Cotton classification to assess whether this could better predict the outcome measures after PCTR. METHODS: One hundred children with Myer-Cotton grade III or IV subglottic stenosis who underwent PCTR between 1978 and 2008 were identified from a prospectively collected database. The patients were classified into four groups based on the association of co-morbidity and/or glottic involvement. Delay in decannulation, revision open surgery and rates of decannulation were the outcome measures compared between the groups. RESULTS: There were 68 children with Myer-Cotton grade III and 32 children with grade IV stenosis. Based on the new classification, there were 36 children with isolated SGS, 31 with associated co-morbidity, 19 with associated glottic involvement and 14 children with both co-morbidity and glottic involvement. A trend towards less optimal results was noticed with the association of co-morbidity and/or glottic involvement. Statistical significance was reached for maximum decannulation failure in the group with both co-morbidity and glottic involvement. Delayed decannulation significantly correlated in the group with associated glottic involvement. CONCLUSION: This new classification is relatively simple and aimed at providing more accurate and uniform prognostic information to both patients and surgeons when dealing with the whole spectrum of severe SGS.

Policy Options for New Student Contributions in Higher Education - Report to the Minister

The Government’s Framework for Sustainable Economic Renewal- Building Ireland’s Smart Economy, launched by the Taoiseach in late 2008, establishes Ireland’s ambition to become internationally renowned as an Innovation Island. At the core of achieving this ambition will be our capacity for producing highly skilled graduates and fostering a climate of creative thinking and advanced research and development. This relies on the quality of undergraduate provision right across the sciences, arts and humanities in our third level institutions. The development of a new national strategy for higher education is now underway. The strategy will aim to identify a vision and objectives for the development of the sector over the next twenty years. Leading higher education systems internationally are characterised by wide revenue sources that, in many cases, include a form of direct student contribution through a tuition fee or student loans system. If Ireland’s higher education system is to develop and meet future demands in an environment of increasingly tight public resources, then it is appropriate that the sector’s level of dependence on Exchequer funding should come under review.

Report to New Schools Establishment Group on the pilot surveys regarding parental preferences on primary school patronage

The Minister for Education and Skills outlined his action plan in response to the report of the Advisory Group to the Forum on Patronage and Pluralism in the Primary Sector in June of this year. As part of the action plan the Minister announced that surveys of parental preferences in 44 areas would be undertaken, beginning with five pilot areas in the autumn of 2012. All of the areas to be surveyed under this process fit the following criteria: • Population of between 5,000 and 20,000 inhabitants according to the 2011 census • Population has increased by less than 20% during the inter-censal period 2006 to 2011 Surveys were undertaken on a pilot basis initially in five areas. The surveys were open for a total of three weeks from Monday 22nd October to Friday 9th November 2012 inclusive. This report has been prepared for the New Schools Establishment Group regarding the five pilot surveys and the analysis of the outcomes in each area. The report is comprised of this overall summary document and the separate detailed analysis documents in respect of each of the five areas that were surveyed and which are contained in Appendices 1 to 5. Appendix 6 is a sample of the paper survey which is similar to the on-line survey.

Global regulation of the knowledge-based economy: The rise of standards in educational services

This article examines the extent and limits of non-state forms of authority in international relations. It analyses how the information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure for the tradability of services in a global knowledge-based economy relies on informal regulatory practices for adjustment of ICT-related skills. Companies and associations provide training and certification programmes as part of a growing market for educational services setting their own standards. The existing literature on non-conventional forms of authority in the global political economy has emphasised that the consent of actors subject to informal rules and explicit or implicit state recognition remains crucial for the effectiveness of those new forms of power. However, analyses based on a limited sample of actors tend toward a narrow understanding of the issues and fail to fully explore the differentiated space in which non-state authority is emerging. This paper examines the form of authority underpinning the global knowledge-based economy within the broader perspective of the issues likely to be standardised by technical ICT specification, the wide range of actors involved, and the highly differentiated space where standards become authoritative. The empirical findings highlight the role of different private actors in establishing international educational norms in this field. They also pinpoint the limits of profit-oriented standard-settings, notably with regard to generic norms.