Lake Baikal amphipods under climate change: Thermal constraints and ecological consequences, links to supplementary material

Lake Baikal, the world's most voluminous freshwater lake, has experienced unprecedented warming during the last decades. A uniquely diverse amphipod fauna inhabits the littoral zone and can serve as a model system to identify the role of thermal tolerance under climate change. This study aimed to identify sublethal thermal constraints in two of the most abundant endemic Baikal amphipods, Eulimnogammarus verrucosus and Eulimnogammarus cyaneus, and Gammarus lacustris, a ubiquitous gammarid of the Holarctic. As the latter is only found in some shallow isolated bays of the lake, we further addressed the question whether rising temperatures could promote the widespread invasion of this non-endemic species into the littoral zone. Animals were exposed to gradual temperature increases (4 week, 0.8 °C/d; 24 h, 1 °C/h) starting from the reported annual mean temperature of the Baikal littoral (6 °C). Within the framework of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT), we used a nonlinear regression approach to determine the points at which the changing temperature-dependence of relevant physiological processes indicates the onset of limitation. Limitations in ventilation representing the first limits of thermal tolerance (pejus (= "getting worse") temperatures (Tp)) were recorded at 10.6 (95% confidence interval; 9.5, 11.7), 19.1 (17.9, 20.2), and 21.1 (19.8, 22.4) °C in E. verrucosus, E. cyaneus, and G. lacustris, respectively. Field observations revealed that E. verrucosus retreated from the upper littoral to deeper and cooler waters once its Tp was surpassed, identifying Tp as the ecological thermal boundary. Constraints in oxygen consumption at higher than critical temperatures (Tc) led to an exponential increase in mortality in all species. Exposure to short-term warming resulted in higher threshold values, consistent with a time dependence of thermal tolerance. In conclusion, species-specific limits to oxygen supply capacity are likely key in the onset of constraining (beyond pejus) and then life-threatening (beyond critical) conditions. Ecological consequences of these limits are mediated through behavioral plasticity in E. verrucosus. However, similar upper thermal limits in E. cyaneus (endemic, Baikal) and G. lacustris (ubiquitous, Holarctic) indicate that the potential invader G. lacustris would not necessarily benefit from rising temperatures. Secondary effects of increasing temperatures remain to be investigated.

AMS 14C dating points, isotopic compositions, Mg/Ca ratios and sea surface temperatures of sediment cores GeoB10029-4 and GeoB10038-4

Quantifying the spatial and temporal sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity changes of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is essential to understand the role of this region in connection with abrupt climate changes particularly during the last deglaciation. In this study we reconstruct SST and seawater d18O of the tropical eastern Indian Ocean for the past 40,000 years from two sediment cores (GeoB 10029-4, 1°30'S, 100°08'E, and GeoB 10038-4, 5°56'S, 103°15'E) retrieved offshore Sumatra. Our results show that annual mean SSTs increased about 2-3 °C at 19,000 years ago and exhibited southern hemisphere-like timing and pattern during the last deglaciation. Our SST records together with other Mg/Ca-based SST reconstructions around Indonesia do not track the monsoon variation since the last glacial period, as recorded by terrestrial monsoon archives. However, the spatial SST heterogeneity might be a result of changing monsoon intensity that shifts either the annual mean SSTs or the seasonality of G. ruber towards the warmer or the cooler season at different locations. Seawater d18O reconstructions north of the equator suggest fresher surface conditions during the last glacial and track the northern high-latitude climate change during the last deglaciation. In contrast, seawater ?18O records south of the equator do not show a significant difference between the last glacial period and the Holocene, and lack Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas periods suggestive of additional controls on annual mean surface hydrology in this part of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool.