Efficacy pneumococcal vaccination in adults: a meta-analysis

Background: Clinical trials and meta-analyses have produced conflicting results of the efficacy of unconjugated pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine in adults. We sought to evaluate the vaccine’s efficacy on clinical outcomes as well as the methodologic quality of the trials. Methods: We searched several databases and all bibliographies of reviews and meta-analyses for clinical trials that compared pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine with a control. We examined rates of pneumonia and death, taking the methodologic quality of the trials into consideration. Results: We included 22 trials involving 101 507 participants: 11 trials reported on presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia, 19 on all-cause pneumonia and 12 on allcause mortality. The current 23-valent vaccine was used in 8 trials. The relative risk (RR) was 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–0.96) for presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia and 0.73 (95% CI 0.56–0.94) for all-cause pneumonia. There was significant heterogeneity between the trials reporting on presumptive pneumonia (I2 = 74%, p < 0.001) and between those reporting on all-cause pneumonia (I2 = 90%, p < 0.001). The RR for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% CI 0.87–1.09), with moderate heterogeneity between trials (I2 = 44%, p = 0.053). Trial quality, especially regarding double blinding, explained a substantial proportion of the heterogeneity in the trials reporting on presumptive pneumonia and all-cause pneumonia. There was little evidence of vaccine protection in trials of higher methodologic quality (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.75–1.92, for presumptive pneumonia; and 1.19, 95% CI 0.95–1.49, for allcause pneumonia in double-blind trials; p for heterogeneity > 0.05). The results for all-cause mortality in double-blind trials were similar to those in all trials combined. There was little evidence of vaccine protection among elderly patients or adults with chronic illness in analyses of all trials (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.78–1.38, for presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia; 0.89, 95% CI 0.69–1.14, for all-cause pneumonia; and 1.00, 95% CI 0.87–1.14, for all-cause mortality). Interpretation: Pneumococcal vaccination does not appear to be effective in preventing pneumonia, even in populations for whom the vaccine is currently recommended.

Emergence of Canine Distemper Virus Strains With Modified Molecular Signature and Enhanced Neuronal Tropism Leading to High Mortality in Wild Carnivores

An ongoing canine distemper epidemic was first detected in Switzerland in the spring of 2009. Compared to previous local canine distemper outbreaks, it was characterized by unusually high morbidity and mortality, rapid spread over the country, and susceptibility of several wild carnivore species. Here, the authors describe the associated pathologic changes and phylogenetic and biological features of a multiple highly virulent canine distemper virus (CDV) strain detected in and/or isolated from red foxes (Vulpes vulpes), Eurasian badgers (Meles meles), stone (Martes foina) and pine (Martes martes) martens, from a Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), and a domestic dog. The main lesions included interstitial to bronchointerstitial pneumonia and meningopolioencephalitis, whereas demyelination-the classic presentation of CDV infection-was observed in few cases only. In the brain lesions, viral inclusions were mainly in the nuclei of the neurons. Some significant differences in brain and lung lesions were observed between foxes and mustelids. Swiss CDV isolates shared together with a Hungarian CDV strain detected in 2004. In vitro analysis of the hemagglutinin protein from one of the Swiss CDV strains revealed functional and structural differences from that of the reference strain A75/17, with the Swiss strain showing increased surface expression and binding efficiency to the signaling lymphocyte activation molecule (SLAM). These features might be part of a novel molecular signature, which might have contributed to an increase in virus pathogenicity, partially explaining the high morbidity and mortality, the rapid spread, and the large host spectrum observed in this outbreak.

Life expectancies of South African adults starting antiretroviral treatment: collaborative analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND Few estimates exist of the life expectancy of HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the life expectancy of patients starting ART in South Africa and compare it with that of HIV-negative adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS Data were collected from six South African ART cohorts. Analysis was restricted to 37,740 HIV-positive adults starting ART for the first time. Estimates of mortality were obtained by linking patient records to the national population register. Relative survival models were used to estimate the excess mortality attributable to HIV by age, for different baseline CD4 categories and different durations. Non-HIV mortality was estimated using a South African demographic model. The average life expectancy of men starting ART varied between 27.6 y (95% CI: 25.2-30.2) at age 20 y and 10.1 y (95% CI: 9.3-10.8) at age 60 y, while estimates for women at the same ages were substantially higher, at 36.8 y (95% CI: 34.0-39.7) and 14.4 y (95% CI: 13.3-15.3), respectively. The life expectancy of a 20-y-old woman was 43.1 y (95% CI: 40.1-46.0) if her baseline CD4 count was ≥ 200 cells/µl, compared to 29.5 y (95% CI: 26.2-33.0) if her baseline CD4 count was <50 cells/µl. Life expectancies of patients with baseline CD4 counts ≥ 200 cells/µl were between 70% and 86% of those in HIV-negative adults of the same age and sex, and life expectancies were increased by 15%-20% in patients who had survived 2 y after starting ART. However, the analysis was limited by a lack of mortality data at longer durations. CONCLUSIONS South African HIV-positive adults can have a near-normal life expectancy, provided that they start ART before their CD4 count drops below 200 cells/µl. These findings demonstrate that the near-normal life expectancies of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART in high-income countries can apply to low- and middle-income countries as well. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The association between admission systolic blood pressure and mortality in significant traumatic brain injury: A multi-centre cohort study

INTRODUCTION Low systolic blood pressure (SBP) is an important secondary insult following traumatic brain injury (TBI), but its exact relationship with outcome is not well characterised. Although a SBP of <90mmHg represents the threshold for hypotension in consensus TBI treatment guidelines, recent studies suggest redefining hypotension at higher levels. This study therefore aimed to fully characterise the association between admission SBP and mortality to further inform resuscitation endpoints. METHODS We conducted a multicentre cohort study using data from the largest European trauma registry. Consecutive adult patients with AIS head scores >2 admitted directly to specialist neuroscience centres between 2005 and July 2012 were studied. Multilevel logistic regression models were developed to examine the association between admission SBP and 30 day inpatient mortality. Models were adjusted for confounders including age, severity of injury, and to account for differential quality of hospital care. RESULTS 5057 patients were included in complete case analyses. Admission SBP demonstrated a smooth u-shaped association with outcome in a bivariate analysis, with increasing mortality at both lower and higher values, and no evidence of any threshold effect. Adjusting for confounding slightly attenuated the association between mortality and SBP at levels <120mmHg, and abolished the relationship for higher SBP values. Case-mix adjusted odds of death were 1.5 times greater at <120mmHg, doubled at <100mmHg, tripled at <90mmHg, and six times greater at SBP<70mmHg, p<0.01. CONCLUSIONS These findings indicate that TBI studies should model SBP as a continuous variable and may suggest that current TBI treatment guidelines, using a cut-off for hypotension at SBP<90mmHg, should be reconsidered.

Short- and long-term mortality and causes of death in HIV/tuberculosis patients in Europe

Mortality of HIV/tuberculosis (TB) patients in Eastern Europe is high. Little is known about their causes of death. This study aimed to assess and compare mortality rates and cause of death in HIV/TB patients across Eastern Europe and Western Europe and Argentina (WEA) in an international cohort study. Mortality rates and causes of death were analysed by time from TB diagnosis (<3 months, 3-12 months or >12 months) in 1078 consecutive HIV/TB patients. Factors associated with TB-related death were examined in multivariate Poisson regression analysis. 347 patients died during 2625 person-years of follow-up. Mortality in Eastern Europe was three- to ninefold higher than in WEA. TB was the main cause of death in Eastern Europe in 80%, 66% and 61% of patients who died <3 months, 3-12 months or >12 months after TB diagnosis, compared to 50%, 0% and 15% in the same time periods in WEA (p<0.0001). In multivariate analysis, follow-up in WEA (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.35), standard TB-treatment (IRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.20-0.99) and antiretroviral therapy (IRR 0.32, 95% CI 0.14-0.77) were associated with reduced risk of TB-related death. Persistently higher mortality rates were observed in HIV/TB patients in Eastern Europe, and TB was the dominant cause of death at any time during follow-up. This has important implications for HIV/TB programmes aiming to optimise the management of HIV/TB patients and limit TB-associated mortality in this region.

Prognosis of Children with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Collaborative Analysis of Treatment Programs

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models for children starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa are lacking. We developed models to estimate the probability of death during the first year receiving ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We analyzed data from children ≤10 years old who started ART in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia or Zimbabwe from 2004-2010. Children lost to follow-up or transferred were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the first year of ART. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4%, age, WHO clinical stage, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) and anemia and one without CD4%, because it is not routinely measured in many programs. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: Among 12655 children, 877 (6.9%) died in the first year of ART. 1780 children were lost to follow-up/transferred and excluded from main analyses; 10875 children were included. With the CD4% model probability of death at 1 year ranged from 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5-2.3) in children 5-10 years with CD4% ≥10%, WHO stage I/II, WAZ ≥-2 and without severe anemia to 46.3% (95% CI: 38.2-55.2) in children <1 year with CD4% <5%, stage III/IV, WAZ< -3 and severe anemia. The corresponding range for the model without CD4% was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.8-2.7) to 33.4% (95% CI: 28.2-39.3). Agreement between predicted and observed mortality was good (C-statistics=0.753 and 0.745 for models with and without CD4% respectively). CONCLUSION: These models may be useful to counsel children/caregivers, for program planning and to assess program outcomes after allowing for differences in patient disease severity characteristics.

Gender-related mortality trends among diabetic patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: insights from a nationwide registry 1997-2010

BACKGROUND Data on temporal trends in outcomes, gender differences, and adherence to evidence-based therapy (EBT) of diabetic patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are sparse. METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of prospectively acquired data on 3565 diabetic (2412 males and 1153 females) STEMI patients enrolled in the Swiss AMIS Plus registry between 1997 and 2010 and compared in-hospital outcomes and adherence to EBT with the nondiabetic population (n=15,531). RESULTS In-hospital mortality dramatically decreased in diabetic patients, from 19.9% in 1997 to 9.0% in 2010 (p trend<0.001) with an age-adjusted decrease of 6% per year of admission. Similar trends were observed for age-adjusted reinfarction (OR 0.86, p<0.001), cardiogenic shock (OR 0.88, p<0.001), as well as death, reinfarction, or stroke (OR 0.92, p<0.001). However, the mortality benefit over time was observed in diabetic males (p trend=0.006) but not females (p trend=0.082). In addition, mortality remained twice as high in diabetic patients compared with nondiabetic ones (12.1 vs. 6.1%, p<0.001) and diabetes was identified as independent predictor of mortality (OR 1.23, p=0.022). Within the diabetic cohort, females had higher mortality than males (16.1 vs. 10.2%, p<0.001) and female gender independently predicted in-hospital mortality (OR 1.45, p=0.015). Adherence to EBT significantly improved over time in diabetic patients (p trend<0.001) but remained inferior - especially in women - to the one of nondiabetic individuals. CONCLUSIONS In-hospital mortality and morbidity of diabetic STEMI patients in Switzerland improved dramatically over time but, compared with nondiabetic counterparts, gaps in outcomes as well as EBT use persisted, especially in women.

When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%. METHODS AND FINDINGS ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3) (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models

Background: WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the basis of clinical evidence. However, HIV programmes in resource-limited settings require guidance on the most cost-effective use of resources in view of other competing priorities such as expansion of antiretroviral therapy coverage. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of alternative patient monitoring strategies. Methods: We evaluated a range of monitoring strategies, including clinical, CD4 cell count, and viral load monitoring, alone and together, at different frequencies and with different criteria for switching to second-line therapies. We used three independently constructed and validated models simultaneously. We estimated costs on the basis of resource use projected in the models and associated unit costs; we quantified impact as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We compared alternatives using incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. Findings: All models show that clinical monitoring delivers significant benefit compared with a hypothetical baseline scenario with no monitoring or switching. Regular CD4 cell count monitoring confers a benefit over clinical monitoring alone, at an incremental cost that makes it affordable in more settings than viral load monitoring, which is currently more expensive. Viral load monitoring without CD4 cell count every 6—12 months provides the greatest reductions in morbidity and mortality, but incurs a high cost per DALY averted, resulting in lost opportunities to generate health gains if implemented instead of increasing antiretroviral therapy coverage or expanding antiretroviral therapy eligibility. Interpretation: The priority for HIV programmes should be to expand antiretroviral therapy coverage, firstly at CD4 cell count lower than 350 cells per μL, and then at a CD4 cell count lower than 500 cells per μL, using lower-cost clinical or CD4 monitoring. At current costs, viral load monitoring should be considered only after high antiretroviral therapy coverage has been achieved. Point-of-care technologies and other factors reducing costs might make viral load monitoring more affordable in future. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO.

Cancer, meta-analysis and reporting biases: the case of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents.

Reporting and publication bias is a well-known problem in meta-analysis and healthcare research. In 2002 we conducted a meta-analysis on the effects of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) on overall survival in cancer patients, which suggested some evidence for improved survival in patients receiving ESAs compared with controls. However, a meta-analysis of individual patient data conducted several years later showed the opposite of our first meta-analysis, that is, evidence for increased on-study mortality and reduced overall survival in cancer patients receiving ESAs. We aimed to determine whether the results of our first meta-analysis could have been affected by publication and reporting biases and, if so, whether timely access to clinical study reports and individual patient data could have prevented this. We conducted a hypothetical meta-analysis for overall survival including all studies and study data that could have been available in 2002, at the time when we conducted our first meta-analysis. Compared with our original meta-analysis, which suggested an overall survival benefit for cancer patients receiving ESAs [hazard ratio (HR) 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67‒0.99], our hypothetical meta-analysis based on the results of all studies conducted at the time of the first analysis did not show evidence for a beneficial effect of ESAs on overall survival (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.83‒1.12). Thus we have to conclude that our first meta-analysis showed misleading overall survival benefits due to publication and reporting biases, which could have been prevented by timely access to clinical study reports and individual patient data. Unrestricted access to clinical study protocols including amendments, clinical study reports and individual patient data is needed to ensure timely detection of both beneficial and harmful effects of healthcare interventions.

Fluid intake and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and kidney function: a population-based longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND Drinking eight glasses of fluid or water each day is widely believed to improve health, but evidence is sparse and conflicting. We aimed to investigate the association between fluid consumption and long-term mortality and kidney function. METHODS We conducted a longitudinal analysis within a prospective, population-based cohort study of 3858 men and women aged 49 years or older residing in Australia. Daily fluid intake from food and beverages not including water was measured using a food frequency questionnaire. We did multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazard models for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and a boot-strapping procedure for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). RESULTS Upper and lower quartiles of daily fluid intake corresponded to >3 L and <2 L, respectively. During a median follow-up of 13.1 years (total 43 093 years at risk), 1127 deaths (26.1 per 1000 years at risk) including 580 cardiovascular deaths (13.5 per 1000 years at risk) occurred. Daily fluid intake (per 250 mL increase) was not associated with all-cause [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.99 (95% CI 0.98-1.01)] or cardiovascular mortality [HR 0.98 (95% CI 0.95-1.01)]. Overall, eGFR reduced by 2.2 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (SD 10.9) in the 1207 (31%) participants who had repeat creatinine measurements and this was not associated with fluid intake [adjusted regression coefficient 0.06 mL/min/1.73 m(2) per 250 mL increase (95% CI -0.03 to 0.14)]. CONCLUSIONS Fluid intake from food and beverages excluding water is not associated with improved kidney function or reduced mortality.

Serial lactate and admission SOFA scores in trauma: an analysis of predictive value in 724 patients with and without traumatic brain injury

Objective Arterial lactate, base excess (BE), lactate clearance, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score have been shown to correlate with outcome in severely injured patients. The goal of the present study was to separately assess their predictive value in patients suffering from traumatic brain injury (TBI) as opposed to patients suffering from injuries not related to the brain. Materials and methods A total of 724 adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16 were grouped into patients without TBI (non-TBI), patients with isolated TBI (isolated TBI), and patients with a combination of TBI and non-TBI injuries (combined injuries). The predictive value of the above parameters was then analyzed using both uni- and multivariate analyses. Results The mean age of the patients was 39 years (77 % males), with a mean ISS of 32 (range 16–75). Mortality ranged from 14 % (non-TBI) to 24 % (combined injuries). Admission and serial lactate/BE values were higher in non-survivors of all groups (all p < 0.01), but not in patients with isolated TBI. Admission SOFA scores were highest in non-survivors of all groups (p = 0.023); subsequently septic patients also showed elevated SOFA scores (p < 0.01), except those with isolated TBI. In this group, SOFA score was the only parameter which showed significant differences between survivors and non-survivors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed lactate to be the best overall predictor for increased mortality and further septic complications, irrespective of the leading injury. Conclusion Lactate showed the best performance in predicting sepsis or death in all trauma patients except those with isolated TBI, and the differences were greatest in patients with substantial bleeding. Following isolated TBI, SOFA score was the only parameter which could differentiate survivors from non-survivors on admission, although the SOFA score, too, was not an independent predictor of death following multivariate analysis.

Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Kyrgyzstan: Seroprevalence, Risk Factor Analysis, and Estimate of Congenital and AIDS-Related Toxoplasmosis

Background HIV-prevalence, as well as incidence of zoonotic parasitic diseases like cystic echinococcosis, has increased in the Kyrgyz Republic due to fundamental socio-economic changes after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. The possible impact on morbidity and mortality caused by Toxoplasma gondii infection in congenital toxoplasmosis or as an opportunistic infection in the emerging AIDS pandemic has not been reported from Kyrgyzstan. Methodology/Principal Findings We screened 1,061 rural and 899 urban people to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in 2 representative but epidemiologically distinct populations in Kyrgyzstan. The rural population was from a typical agricultural district where sheep husbandry is a major occupation. The urban population was selected in collaboration with several diagnostic laboratories in Bishkek, the largest city in Kyrgyzstan. We designed a questionnaire that was used on all rural subjects so a risk-factor analysis could be undertaken. The samples from the urban population were anonymous and only data with regard to age and gender was available. Estimates of putative cases of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis in the whole country were made from the results of the serology. Specific antibodies (IgG) against Triton X-100 extracted antigens of T. gondii tachyzoites from in vitro cultures were determined by ELISA. Overall seroprevalence of infection with T. gondii in people living in rural vs. urban areas was 6.2% (95%CI: 4.8–7.8) (adjusted seroprevalence based on census figures 5.1%, 95% CI 3.9–6.5), and 19.0% (95%CI: 16.5–21.7) (adjusted 16.4%, 95% CI 14.1–19.3), respectively, without significant gender-specific differences. The seroprevalence increased with age. Independently low social status increased the risk of Toxoplasma seropositivity while increasing numbers of sheep owned decreased the risk of seropositivity. Water supply, consumption of unpasteurized milk products or undercooked meat, as well as cat ownership, had no significant influence on the risk for seropositivity. Conclusions We present a first seroprevalence analysis for human T. gondii infection in the Kyrgyz Republic. Based on these data we estimate that 173 (95% CI 136–216) Kyrgyz children will be born annually to mothers who seroconverted to toxoplasmosis during pregnancy. In addition, between 350 and 1,000 HIV-infected persons are currently estimated to be seropositive for toxoplasmosis. Taken together, this suggests a substantial impact of congenital and AIDS-related symptomatic toxoplasmosis on morbidity and mortality in Kyrgyzstan.

Economic efficiency analysis of different strategies to control post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection in 3-weekly batch system farms.

The study assessed the economic efficiency of different strategies for the control of post-weaning multi-systemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) and porcine circovirus type 2 subclinical infection (PCV2SI), which have a major economic impact on the pig farming industry worldwide. The control strategies investigated consisted on the combination of up to 5 different control measures. The control measures considered were: (1) PCV2 vaccination of piglets (vac); (2) ensuring age adjusted diet for growers (diets); (3) reduction of stocking density (stock); (4) improvement of biosecurity measures (bios); and (5) total depopulation and repopulation of the farm for the elimination of other major pathogens (DPRP). A model was developed to simulate 5 years production of a pig farm with a 3-weekly batch system and with 100 sows. A PMWS/PCV2SI disease and economic model, based on PMWS severity scores, was linked to the production model in order to assess disease losses. This PMWS severity scores depends on the combination post-weaning mortality, PMWS morbidity in younger pigs and proportion of PCV2 infected pigs observed on farms. The economic analysis investigated eleven different farm scenarios, depending on the number of risk factors present before the intervention. For each strategy, an investment appraisal assessed the extra costs and benefits of reducing a given PMWS severity score to the average score of a slightly affected farm. The net present value obtained for each strategy was then multiplied by the corresponding probability of success to obtain an expected value. A stochastic simulation was performed to account for uncertainty and variability. For moderately affected farms PCV2 vaccination alone was the most cost-efficient strategy, but for highly affected farms it was either PCV2 vaccination alone or in combination with biosecurity measures, with the marginal profitability between 'vac' and 'vac+bios' being small. Other strategies such as 'diets', 'vac+diets' and 'bios+diets' were frequently identified as the second or third best strategy. The mean expected values of the best strategy for a moderately and a highly affected farm were £14,739 and £57,648 after 5 years, respectively. This is the first study to compare economic efficiency of control strategies for PMWS and PCV2SI. The results demonstrate the economic value of PCV2 vaccination, and highlight that on highly affected farms biosecurity measures are required to achieve optimal profitability. The model developed has potential as a farm-level decision support tool for the control of this economically important syndrome.

Critical Analysis of Bladder Sparing with Trimodal Therapy in Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: A Systematic Review.

CONTEXT Aims of bladder preservation in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) are to offer a quality-of-life advantage and avoid potential morbidity or mortality of radical cystectomy (RC) without compromising oncologic outcomes. Because of the lack of a completed randomised controlled trial, oncologic equivalence of bladder preservation modality treatments compared with RC remains unknown. OBJECTIVE This systematic review sought to assess the modern bladder-preservation treatment modalities, focusing on trimodal therapy (TMT) in MIBC. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION A systematic literature search in the PubMed and Cochrane databases was performed from 1980 to July 2013. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS Optimal bladder-preservation treatment includes a safe transurethral resection of the bladder tumour as complete as possible followed by radiation therapy (RT) with concurrent radiosensitising chemotherapy. A standard radiation schedule includes external-beam RT to the bladder and limited pelvic lymph nodes to an initial dose of 40Gy, with a boost to the whole bladder to 54Gy and a further tumour boost to a total dose of 64-65Gy. Radiosensitising chemotherapy with phase 3 trial evidence in support exists for cisplatin and mitomycin C plus 5-fluorouracil. A cystoscopic assessment with systematic rebiopsy should be performed at TMT completion or early after TMT induction. Thus, nonresponders are identified early to promptly offer salvage RC. The 5-yr cancer-specific survival and overall survival rates range from 50% to 82% and from 36% to 74%, respectively, with salvage cystectomy rates of 25-30%. There are no definitive data to support the benefit of using of neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy. Critical to good outcomes is proper patient selection. The best cancers eligible for bladder preservation are those with low-volume T2 disease without hydronephrosis or extensive carcinoma in situ. CONCLUSIONS A growing body of accumulated data suggests that bladder preservation with TMT leads to acceptable outcomes and therefore may be considered a reasonable treatment option in well-selected patients. PATIENT SUMMARY Treatment based on a combination of resection, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy as bladder-sparing strategies may be considered as a reasonable treatment option in properly selected patients.