Bowling for fascism: Social capital and the rise of the Nazi Party in Weimar Germany, 1919-33

Social capital a dense network of associations facilitating cooperation within a community typically leads to positive political and economic outcomes, as demonstrated by a large literature following Putnam. A growing literature emphasizes the potentially "dark side" of social capital. This paper examines the role of social capital in the downfall of democracy in interwar Germany by analyzing Nazi party entry rates in a cross-section of towns and cities. Before the Nazi Party's triumphs at the ballot box, it built an extensive organizational structure, becoming a mass movement with nearly a million members by early 1933. We show that dense networks of civic associations such as bowling clubs, animal breeder associations, or choirs facilitated the rise of the Nazi Party. The effects are large: Towns with one standard deviation higher association density saw at least one-third faster growth in the strength of the Nazi Party. IV results based on 19th century measures of social capital reinforce our conclusions. In addition, all types of associations veteran associations and non-military clubs, "bridging" and "bonding" associations positively predict NS party entry. These results suggest that social capital in Weimar Germany aided the rise of the Nazi movement that ultimately destroyed Germany's first democracy.

Health correlates of overweight and obesity in adults aged 50 years and over: results from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE)

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To examine the association between overweight/obesity and several self-reported chronic diseases, symptoms and disability measures. METHODS: Data from eleven European countries participating in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe were used. 18,584 non-institutionalised individuals aged 50 years and over with BMI > or = 18.5 (kg/m2) were included. BMI was categorized into normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9), overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9) and obesity (BMI > or = 30). Dependent variables were 13 diagnosed chronic conditions, 11 health complaints, subjective health and physical disability measures. For both genders, multiple logistic regressions were performed adjusting for age, socioeconomic status and behaviour risks. RESULTS: The odds ratios for high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, arthritis, joint pain and swollen legs were significantly increased for overweight and obese adults. Compared to normal-weight individuals, the odds ratio (OR) for reporting > or = 2 chronic diseases was 2.4 (95% CI 1.9-2.9) for obese men and 2.7 (95% CI 2.2-3.1) for obese women. Overweight and obese women were more likely to report health symptoms. Obesity in men (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.6), and overweight (OR 0.5, 95% CI 0.4-0.6) and obesity (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.3-0.5) in women, were associated with poorer subjective health (i.e. a decreased risk of reporting excellent, very good or good subjective health). Disability outcomes were those showing the greatest differences in strength of association across BMI categories, and between genders. For example, the OR for any difficulty in walking 100 metres was non-significant at 0.8 for overweight men, at 1.9 (95% CI 1.3-2.7) for obese men, at 1.4 (95% CI 1.1-1.8) for overweight women, and at 3.5 (95% CI 2.6-4.7) for obese women. CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the impact of increased BMI on morbidity and disability. Healthcare stakeholders of the participating countries should be aware of the substantial burden that obesity places on the general health and autonomy of adults aged over 50.

Comparison of potential adjustment variables representing primary intellectual level in epidemiological studies on neurotoxicity

BACKGROUND: Primary intellectual abilities (PIA) are a confounder in epidemiological studies on neurotoxicity. A good measure of this confounder should be independent of age as PIA is an intrinsic ability. Furthermore, as PIA is related to health endpoints, any measure of PIA should reveal this association. This study is aimed at comparing vocabulary test, diploma and age at end of schooling properties as measures of PIA in a non-exposed population of workers. METHODS: The design was a cross-sectional study of 413 non-exposed workers (203 women and 210 men) selected from a health check-up center. The effect of age on the vocabulary score was assessed using an analysis of covariance adjusted for diploma. Relationships between neuropsychological performances and vocabulary score, diploma and end of schooling age were, respectively, assessed using multiple linear regressions adjusted for age and gender. RESULTS: Vocabulary score increased significantly with age, both for men and women. The increase was 0.14 word per year for women, and 0.18 word per year for men. The explained variance of the models evaluating the relationships between age at end of schooling, diploma, vocabulary test, and neuropsychological performances was quite similar for the three measures of PIA. CONCLUSIONS: Vocabulary score was found to be age-related, even after adjustment for diploma. No difference was found between these three variables in terms of their relationship to neuropsychological endpoints. Moreover, the literature shows that vocabulary test performances are influenced by exposure to neurotoxic agents. These results suggest that vocabulary score could be of interest for participants of similar ages and similar diplomas. Otherwise, the other two variables would be better PIA measures in neurotoxicology studies.

Low income, community poverty and risk of end stage renal disease

BACKGROUND: The risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) is increased among individuals with low income and in low income communities. However, few studies have examined the relation of both individual and community socioeconomic status (SES) with incident ESRD. METHODS: Among 23,314 U.S. adults in the population-based Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study, we assessed participant differences across geospatially-linked categories of county poverty [outlier poverty, extremely high poverty, very high poverty, high poverty, neither (reference), high affluence and outlier affluence]. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations of annual household income and geospatially-linked county poverty measures with incident ESRD, while accounting for death as a competing event using the Fine and Gray method. RESULTS: There were 158 ESRD cases during follow-up. Incident ESRD rates were 178.8 per 100,000 person-years (105 py) in high poverty outlier counties and were 76.3 /105 py in affluent outlier counties, p trend = 0.06. In unadjusted competing risk models, persons residing in high poverty outlier counties had higher incidence of ESRD (which was not statistically significant) when compared to those persons residing in counties with neither high poverty nor affluence [hazard ratio (HR) 1.54, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.75-3.20]. This association was markedly attenuated following adjustment for socio-demographic factors (age, sex, race, education, and income); HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.46-2.00. However, in the same adjusted model, income was independently associated with risk of ESRD [HR 3.75, 95% CI 1.62-8.64, comparing the < $20,000 income group to the > $75,000 group]. There were no statistically significant associations of county measures of poverty with incident ESRD, and no evidence of effect modification. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to annual family income, geospatially-linked measures of county poverty have little relation with risk of ESRD. Efforts to mitigate socioeconomic disparities in kidney disease may be best appropriated at the individual level.

Care complexity, mood, and quality of life in liver pre-transplant patients.

RATIONALE: This study was intended to document the frequency of care complexity in liver transplant candidates, and its association with mood disturbance and poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL). METHODS: Consecutive patients fulfilling inclusion criteria, recruited in three European hospitals, were assessed with INTERMED, a reliable and valid method for the early assessment of bio-psychosocial health risks and needs. Blind to the results, they were also assessed with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). HRQoL was documented with the EuroQol and the SF36. Statistical analysis included multivariate and multilevel techniques. RESULTS: Among patients fulfilling inclusion criteria, 60 patients (75.9%) completed the protocol and 38.3% of them were identified as "complex" by INTERMED, but significant between-center differences were found. In support of the working hypothesis, INTERMED scores were significantly associated with all measures of both the SF36 and the EuroQol, and also with the HADS. A one point increase in the INTERMED score results in a reduction in 0.93 points in EuroQol and a 20% increase in HADS score. CONCLUSIONS: INTERMED-measured case complexity is frequent in liver transplant candidates but varies widely between centers. The use of this method captures in one instrument multiple domains of patient status, including mood disturbances and reduced HRQoL.

Genetic association tests: a method for the joint analysis of family and case-control data.

With the trend in molecular epidemiology towards both genome-wide association studies and complex modelling, the need for large sample sizes to detect small effects and to allow for the estimation of many parameters within a model continues to increase. Unfortunately, most methods of association analysis have been restricted to either a family-based or a case-control design, resulting in the lack of synthesis of data from multiple studies. Transmission disequilibrium-type methods for detecting linkage disequilibrium from family data were developed as an effective way of preventing the detection of association due to population stratification. Because these methods condition on parental genotype, however, they have precluded the joint analysis of family and case-control data, although methods for case-control data may not protect against population stratification and do not allow for familial correlations. We present here an extension of a family-based association analysis method for continuous traits that will simultaneously test for, and if necessary control for, population stratification. We further extend this method to analyse binary traits (and therefore family and case-control data together) and accurately to estimate genetic effects in the population, even when using an ascertained family sample. Finally, we present the power of this binary extension for both family-only and joint family and case-control data, and demonstrate the accuracy of the association parameter and variance components in an ascertained family sample.

Diabetic patients who report receiving processes of diabetic care do not express a better quality of life

Background: Chronic disease management initiatives emphasize patient-centered care, and quality of life (QoL) is increasingly considered a representative outcome in that context. In this study we evaluated the association between receipt of processes of diabetic care and QoL. Methods: This cross-sectional population-based study (2011) used self-reported data from non-institutionalized, adult diabetics, recruited from randomly selected community pharmacies in Vaud. Outcomes included the physical and mental composites of the SF-36 (PCS, MCS) and the disease-specific Audit of Diabetes-Dependent QoL (ADDQoL). Main exposure variables were receipt of six diabetes processes-of care in the past 12 months. We also evaluated whether the association between care received and QoL was congruent with the chronic care model, when assessed by the Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC). We used linear regressions to examine the association between process measures and the three composites of health-related QoL. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, socioeconomic status, living companion, BMI, alcohol, smoking, physical activity, co-morbidities and diabetes mellitus (DM) characteristics (type, insulin use, complications, duration). Results: Mean age of the 519 diabetic patients was 64.4 years (SD 11.3), 60% were male and 73% had a living companion; 87% reported type 2 DM, half of respondents required insulin treatment, 48% had at least one DM complication, and 48% had DM over 10 years. Crude overall mean QoL scores were PCS: 43.4 (SD 10.5), MCS: 47.0 (SD 11.2) and ADDQoL: -1.56 (SD 1.6). In bivariate analyses, patients who received the influenza vaccine versus those who did not, had lower ADDQoL and PCS scores; there were no other indicator differences. In adjusted models including all processes, receipt of influenza vaccine was associated with lower ADDQoL (β= - 0.41, p=.01); there were no other associations between process indicators and QoL composites. There was no process association even when these were reported as combined measures of processes of care. PACIC score was associated only with the MCS (β= 1.57, p=.004). Conclusions: Process indicators for diabetes care did not show an association with QoL. This may represent an effect lag time between time of process received and quality of life; or that treatment may be related with inconvenience and patient worry. Further research is needed to explore these unexpected findings.

Ruling out coronary artery disease in primary care: development and validation of a simple prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort). RESULTS: The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3-5 points; negative result <or= 2 points), which had a sensitivity of 87.1% (95% CI 79.9%-94.2%) and a specificity of 80.8% (77.6%-83.9%). INTERPRETATION: The prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care proved to be robust in the validation cohort. It can help to rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care.

Association between C-reactive protein and adiposity in women.

Context: The link between C-reactive protein (CRP) and adiposity deserves to be further explored considering the controversial diabetogenic role of CRP. Objective: We explored the potential causal role of CRP on measures of adiposity. Design: We used a Mendelian randomization approach with the CRP and LEPR genes as instrumental variables in a cross-sectional Caucasian population-based study comprising 2526 men and 2836 women. Adiposity was measured using body mass index (BMI), fat and lean mass estimated by bioelectrical impedance, and waist circumference. Results: Log-transformed CRP explained by the rs7553007 SNP tagging the CRP gene was significantly associated with BMI (regression coefficient: 1.22 [0.18;2.25], P=0.02) and fat mass (2.67 [0.65;4.68], P=0.01), but not with lean mass in women, whereas no association was found in men. Log-transformed CRP explained by the rs1805096 LEPR SNP was also positively associated, although not significantly, with BMI or fat mass. The combined CRP-LEPR instrument explained 2.24% and 0.77% of CRP variance in women and in men, respectively. Log-transformed CRP explained by this combined instrument was significantly associated with BMI (0.98 [0.32;1.63], P=0.004), fat mass (2.07 [0.79;3.34], P=0.001) and waist (2.09 [0.39;3.78], P=0.01) in women, but not in men. Conclusion: Our data suggest that CRP is causally and positively related to BMI in women, and that this is mainly due to fat mass. Results on the combined CRP-LEPR instrument suggest that leptin may play a role in the causal association between CRP and adiposity in women. Results in men were not significant.

Bilateral Sequential NAION: A Comparison of Visual Outcomes in Fellow Eyes Using Quantitative Analysis of Goldmann Visual Fields

Purpose: Previous studies of the visual outcome in bilateral non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION) have yielded conflicting results, specifically regarding congruity between fellow eyes. Prior studies have used measures of acuity and computerized perimetry but none has compared Goldmann visual field outcomes between fellow eyes. In order to better define the concordance of visual loss in this condition, we reviewed our cases of bilateral sequential NAION, including measures of visual acuity, pupillary function and both pattern and severity of visual field loss.Methods: We performed a retrospective chart review of 102 patients with a diagnosis of bilateral sequential NAION. Of the 102 patients, 86 were included in the study for analysis of final visual outcome between the affected eyes. Visual function was assessed using visual acuity, Goldmann visual fields, color vision and RAPD. A quantitative total visual field score and score per quadrant was analyzed for each eye using the numerical Goldmann visual field scoring method previously described by Esterman and colleagues. Based upon these scores, we calculated the total deviation and pattern deviation between fellow eyes and between eyes of different patients. Statistical significance was determined using nonparametric tests.Results: A statistically significant correlation was found between fellow eyes for multiple parameters, including logMAR visual acuity (P = 0.0101), global visual field (P = 0.0001), superior visual field (P = 0.0001), and inferior visual field (P = 0.0001). In addition, the mean deviation of both total (P = 0.0000000007) and pattern (P = 0.000000004) deviation analyses was significantly less between fellow eyes ("intra"-eyes) than between eyes of different patients ("inter"-eyes).Conclusions: Visual function between fellow eyes showed a fair to moderate correlation that was statistically significant. The pattern of vision loss was also more similar in fellow eyes than between eyes of different patients. These results may help allow better prediction of visual outcome for the second eye in patients with NAION. These findings may also be useful for evaluating efficacy of therapeutic interventions.

A genome-wide association study of neuroticism in a population-based sample.

Neuroticism is a moderately heritable personality trait considered to be a risk factor for developing major depression, anxiety disorders and dementia. We performed a genome-wide association study in 2,235 participants drawn from a population-based study of neuroticism, making this the largest association study for neuroticism to date. Neuroticism was measured by the Eysenck Personality Questionnaire. After Quality Control, we analysed 430,000 autosomal SNPs together with an additional 1.2 million SNPs imputed with high quality from the Hap Map CEU samples. We found a very small effect of population stratification, corrected using one principal component, and some cryptic kinship that required no correction. NKAIN2 showed suggestive evidence of association with neuroticism as a main effect (p < 10(-6)) and GPC6 showed suggestive evidence for interaction with age (p approximately = 10(-7)). We found support for one previously-reported association (PDE4D), but failed to replicate other recent reports. These results suggest common SNP variation does not strongly influence neuroticism. Our study was powered to detect almost all SNPs explaining at least 2% of heritability, and so our results effectively exclude the existence of loci having a major effect on neuroticism.

Routine delivery of artemisinin-based combination treatment at fixed health facilities reduces malaria prevalence in Tanzania: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been promoted as a means to reduce malaria transmission due to their ability to kill both asexual blood stages of malaria parasites, which sustain infections over long periods and the immature derived sexual stages responsible for infecting mosquitoes and onward transmission. Early studies reported a temporal association between ACT introduction and reduced malaria transmission in a number of ecological settings. However, these reports have come from areas with low to moderate malaria transmission, been confounded by the presence of other interventions or environmental changes that may have reduced malaria transmission, and have not included a comparison group without ACT. This report presents results from the first large-scale observational study to assess the impact of case management with ACT on population-level measures of malaria endemicity in an area with intense transmission where the benefits of effective infection clearance might be compromised by frequent and repeated re-infection. METHODS: A pre-post observational study with a non-randomized comparison group was conducted at two sites in Tanzania. Both sites used sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapy as a first-line anti-malarial from mid-2001 through 2002. In 2003, the ACT, artesunate (AS) co-administered with SP (AS + SP), was introduced in all fixed health facilities in the intervention site, including both public and registered non-governmental facilities. Population-level prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia and gametocytaemia were assessed using light microscopy from samples collected during representative household surveys in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006. FINDINGS: Among 37,309 observations included in the analysis, annual asexual parasitaemia prevalence in persons of all ages ranged from 11% to 28% and gametocytaemia prevalence ranged from <1% to 2% between the two sites and across the five survey years. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to adjust for age, socioeconomic status, bed net use and rainfall. In the presence of consistently high coverage and efficacy of SP monotherapy and AS + SP in the comparison and intervention areas, the introduction of ACT in the intervention site was associated with a modest reduction in the adjusted asexual parasitaemia prevalence of 5 percentage-points or 23% (p < 0.0001) relative to the comparison site. Gametocytaemia prevalence did not differ significantly (p = 0.30). INTERPRETATION: The introduction of ACT at fixed health facilities only modestly reduced asexual parasitaemia prevalence. ACT is effective for treatment of uncomplicated malaria and should have substantial public health impact on morbidity and mortality, but is unlikely to reduce malaria transmission substantially in much of sub-Saharan Africa where individuals are rapidly re-infected.

The ability model of emotional intelligence: Searching for valid measures

Current measures of ability emotional intelligence (EI)--including the well-known Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test (MSCEIT)--suffer from several limitations, including low discriminant validity and questionable construct and incremental validity. We show that the MSCEIT is largely predicted by personality dimensions, general intelligence, and demographics having multiple R's with the MSCEIT branches up to .66; for the general EI factor this relation was even stronger (Multiple R = .76). As concerns the factor structure of the MSCEIT, we found support for four first-order factors, which had differential relations with personality, but no support for a higher-order global EI factor. We discuss implications for employing the MSCEIT, including (a) using the single branches scores rather than the total score, (b) always controlling for personality and general intelligence to ensure unbiased parameter estimates in the EI factors, and (c) correcting for measurement error. Failure to account for these methodological aspects may severely compromise predictive validity testing. We also discuss avenues for the improvement of ability-based tests.

LDL-cholesterol concentrations: a genome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND: LDL cholesterol has a causal role in the development of cardiovascular disease. Improved understanding of the biological mechanisms that underlie the metabolism and regulation of LDL cholesterol might help to identify novel therapeutic targets. We therefore did a genome-wide association study of LDL-cholesterol concentrations. METHODS: We used genome-wide association data from up to 11,685 participants with measures of circulating LDL-cholesterol concentrations across five studies, including data for 293 461 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with a minor allele frequency of 5% or more that passed our quality control criteria. We also used data from a second genome-wide array in up to 4337 participants from three of these five studies, with data for 290,140 SNPs. We did replication studies in two independent populations consisting of up to 4979 participants. Statistical approaches, including meta-analysis and linkage disequilibrium plots, were used to refine association signals; we analysed pooled data from all seven populations to determine the effect of each SNP on variations in circulating LDL-cholesterol concentrations. FINDINGS: In our initial scan, we found two SNPs (rs599839 [p=1.7x10(-15)] and rs4970834 [p=3.0x10(-11)]) that showed genome-wide statistical association with LDL cholesterol at chromosomal locus 1p13.3. The second genome screen found a third statistically associated SNP at the same locus (rs646776 [p=4.3x10(-9)]). Meta-analysis of data from all studies showed an association of SNPs rs599839 (combined p=1.2x10(-33)) and rs646776 (p=4.8x10(-20)) with LDL-cholesterol concentrations. SNPs rs599839 and rs646776 both explained around 1% of the variation in circulating LDL-cholesterol concentrations and were associated with about 15% of an SD change in LDL cholesterol per allele, assuming an SD of 1 mmol/L. INTERPRETATION: We found evidence for a novel locus for LDL cholesterol on chromosome 1p13.3. These results potentially provide insight into the biological mechanisms that underlie the regulation of LDL cholesterol and might help in the discovery of novel therapeutic targets for cardiovascular disease.

Genetic Association of Recovery from Eating Disorders: The Role of GABA Receptor SNPs.

Follow-up studies of eating disorders (EDs) suggest outcomes ranging from recovery to chronic illness or death, but predictors of outcome have not been consistently identified. We tested 5151 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in approximately 350 candidate genes for association with recovery from ED in 1878 women. Initial analyses focused on a strictly defined discovery cohort of women who were over age 25 years, carried a lifetime diagnosis of an ED, and for whom data were available regarding the presence (n=361 ongoing symptoms in the past year, ie, 'ill') or absence (n=115 no symptoms in the past year, ie, 'recovered') of ED symptoms. An intronic SNP (rs17536211) in GABRG1 showed the strongest statistical evidence of association (p=4.63 × 10(-6), false discovery rate (FDR)=0.021, odds ratio (OR)=0.46). We replicated these findings in a more liberally defined cohort of women age 25 years or younger (n=464 ill, n=107 recovered; p=0.0336, OR=0.68; combined sample p=4.57 × 10(-6), FDR=0.0049, OR=0.55). Enrichment analyses revealed that GABA (γ-aminobutyric acid) SNPs were over-represented among SNPs associated at p<0.05 in both the discovery (Z=3.64, p=0.0003) and combined cohorts (Z=2.07, p=0.0388). In follow-up phenomic association analyses with a third independent cohort (n=154 ED cases, n=677 controls), rs17536211 was associated with trait anxiety (p=0.049), suggesting a possible mechanism through which this variant may influence ED outcome. These findings could provide new insights into the development of more effective interventions for the most treatment-resistant patients.