Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Hybrid adaptive control of a dragonfly model

Dragonflies show unique and superior flight performances than most of other insect species and birds. They are equipped with two pairs of independently controlled wings granting an unmatchable flying performance and robustness. In this paper, it is presented an adaptive scheme controlling a nonlinear model inspired in a dragonfly-like robot. It is proposed a hybrid adaptive (HA) law for adjusting the parameters analyzing the tracking error. At the current stage of the project it is considered essential the development of computational simulation models based in the dynamics to test whether strategies or algorithms of control, parts of the system (such as different wing configurations, tail) as well as the complete system. The performance analysis proves the superiority of the HA law over the direct adaptive (DA) method in terms of faster and improved tracking and parameter convergence.

Bit error models

The use of bit error models in communication simulation has been widely studied. In this technical report we present three models: the Independent Channel Model; the Gilbert-Elliot Model and the Burst-Error Periodic Model.

A lightweight indoor localization model based on motley-keenan and COST

This paper presents a novel approach to WLAN propagation models for use in indoor localization. The major goal of this work is to eliminate the need for in situ data collection to generate the Fingerprinting map, instead, it is generated by using analytical propagation models such as: COST Multi-Wall, COST 231 average wall and Motley- Keenan. As Location Estimation Algorithms kNN (K-Nearest Neighbour) and WkNN (Weighted K-Nearest Neighbour) were used to determine the accuracy of the proposed technique. This work is based on analytical and measurement tools to determine which path loss propagation models are better for location estimation applications, based on Receive Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI).This study presents different proposals for choosing the most appropriate values for the models parameters, like obstacles attenuation and coefficients. Some adjustments to these models, particularly to Motley-Keenan, considering the thickness of walls, are proposed. The best found solution is based on the adjusted Motley-Keenan and COST models that allows to obtain the propagation loss estimation for several environments.Results obtained from two testing scenarios showed the reliability of the adjustments, providing smaller errors in the measured values values in comparison with the predicted values.

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

H → Zr in the complex two Higgs doublet model

The latest LHC data confirmed the existence of a Higgs-like particle and made interesting measurements on its decays into gamma gamma, ZZ*, WW*, tau(+)tau(-), and b (b) over bar. It is expected that a decay into Z gamma might be measured at the next LHC round, for which there already exists an upper bound. The Higgs-like particle could be a mixture of scalar with a relatively large component of pseudoscalar. We compute the decay of such a mixed state into Z gamma, and we study its properties in the context of the complex two Higgs doublet model, analysing the effect of the current measurements on the four versions of this model. We show that a measurement of the h -> Z gamma rate at a level consistent with the SM can be used to place interesting constraints on the pseudoscalar component. We also comment on the issue of a wrong sign Yukawa coupling for the bottom in Type II models.

Sistema de Torre de Refrigeração

Mestrado em Engenharia Química - Ramo Optimização Energética na Indústria Química

Study of the interactions in a three-way crossed classification model

Crossed classification models are applied in many investigations taking in consideration the existence of interaction between all factors or, in alternative, excluding all interactions, and in this case only the effects and the error term are considered. In this work we use commutative Jordan algebras in the study of the algebraic structure of these designs and we use them to obtain similar designs where only some of the interactions are considered. We finish presenting the expressions of the variance componentes estimators.

18F-FDG measurement in primary lung cancer: SUV normalization to different distribution volumes

Introduction: Standard Uptake Value (SUV) is a measurement of the uptake in a tumour normalized on the basis of a distribution volume and is used to quantify 18F-Fluorodeoxiglucose (FDG) uptake in tumors, such as primary lung tumor. Several sources of error can affect its accuracy. Normalization can be based on body weight, body surface area (BSA) and lean body mass (LBM). The aim of this study is to compare the influence of 3 normalization volumes in the calculation of SUV: body weight (SUVW), BSA (SUVBSA) and LBM (SUVLBM), with and without glucose correction, in patients with known primary lung tumor. The correlation between SUV and weight, height, blood glucose level, injected activity and time between injection and image acquisition is evaluated. Methods: Sample included 30 subjects (8 female and 22 male) with primary lung tumor, with clinical indication for 18F-FDG Positron Emission Tomography (PET). Images were acquired on a Siemens Biography according to the department’s protocol. Maximum pixel SUVW was obtained for abnormal uptake focus through semiautomatic VOI with Quantification 3D isocontour (threshold 2.5). The concentration of radioactivity (kBq/ml) was obtained from SUVW, SUVBSA, SUVLBM and the glucose corrected SUV were mathematically obtained. Results: Statistically significant differences between SUVW, SUVBSA and SUVLBM and between SUVWgluc, SUVBSAgluc and SUVLBMgluc were observed (p=0.000<0.05). The blood glucose level showed significant positive correlations with SUVW (r=0.371; p=0.043) and SUVLBM (r=0.389; p=0.034). SUVBSA showed independence of variations with the blood glucose level. Conclusion: The measurement of a radiopharmaceutical tumor uptake normalized on the basis of different distribution volumes is still variable. Further investigation on this subject is recommended.

Optimal Cut-Off Value for Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) Index of Insulin-Resistance in a Population of Patients Admitted Electively in a Portuguese Cardiology Ward

INTRODUCTION: Insulin resistance is the pathophysiological key to explain metabolic syndrome. Although clearly useful, the Homeostasis Model Assessment index (an insulin resistance measurement) hasn't been systematically applied in clinical practice. One of the main reasons is the discrepancy in cut-off values reported in different populations. We sought to evaluate in a Portuguese population the ideal cut-off for Homeostasis Model Assessment index and assess its relationship with metabolic syndrome. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We selected a cohort of individuals admitted electively in a Cardiology ward with a BMI < 25 Kg/m2 and no abnormalities in glucose metabolism (fasting plasma glucose < 100 mg/dL and no diabetes). The 90th percentile of the Homeostasis Model Assessment index distribution was used to obtain the ideal cut-off for insulin resistance. We also selected a validation cohort of 300 individuals (no exclusion criteria applied). RESULTS: From 7 000 individuals, and after the exclusion criteria, there were left 1 784 individuals. The 90th percentile for Homeostasis Model Assessment index was 2.33. In the validation cohort, applying that cut-off, we have 49.3% of individuals with insulin resistance. However, only 69.9% of the metabolic syndrome patients had insulin resistance according to that cut-off. By ROC curve analysis, the ideal cut-off for metabolic syndrome is 2.41. Homeostasis Model Assessment index correlated with BMI (r = 0.371, p < 0.001) and is an independent predictor of the presence of metabolic syndrome (OR 19.4, 95% CI 6.6 - 57.2, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Our study showed that in a Portuguese population of patients admitted electively in a Cardiology ward, 2.33 is the Homeostasis Model Assessment index cut-off for insulin resistance and 2.41 for metabolic syndrome. CONCLUSION: Homeostasis Model Assessment index is directly correlated with BMI and is an independent predictor of metabolic syndrome.

Integrated data model and DSL modifications

Companies are increasingly more and more dependent on distributed web-based software systems to support their businesses. This increases the need to maintain and extend software systems with up-to-date new features. Thus, the development process to introduce new features usually needs to be swift and agile, and the supporting software evolution process needs to be safe, fast, and efficient. However, this is usually a difficult and challenging task for a developer due to the lack of support offered by programming environments, frameworks, and database management systems. Changes needed at the code level, database model, and the actual data contained in the database must be planned and developed together and executed in a synchronized way. Even under a careful development discipline, the impact of changing an application data model is hard to predict. The lifetime of an application comprises changes and updates designed and tested using data, which is usually far from the real, production, data. So, coding DDL and DML SQL scripts to update database schema and data, is the usual (and hard) approach taken by developers. Such manual approach is error prone and disconnected from the real data in production, because developers may not know the exact impact of their changes. This work aims to improve the maintenance process in the context of Agile Platform by Outsystems. Our goal is to design and implement new data-model evolution features that ensure a safe support for change and a sound migration process. Our solution includes impact analysis mechanisms targeting the data model and the data itself. This provides, to developers, a safe, simple, and guided evolution process.

Analysis and design of sinusoidal quadrature RC-oscillators

Modern telecommunication equipment requires components that operate in many different frequency bands and support multiple communication standards, to cope with the growing demand for higher data rate. Also, a growing number of standards are adopting the use of spectrum efficient digital modulations, such as quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM). These modulation schemes require accurate quadrature oscillators, which makes the quadrature oscillator a key block in modern radio frequency (RF) transceivers. The wide tuning range characteristics of inductorless quadrature oscillators make them natural candidates, despite their higher phase noise, in comparison with LC-oscillators. This thesis presents a detailed study of inductorless sinusoidal quadrature oscillators. Three quadrature oscillators are investigated: the active coupling RC-oscillator, the novel capacitive coupling RCoscillator, and the two-integrator oscillator. The thesis includes a detailed analysis of the Van der Pol oscillator (VDPO). This is used as a base model oscillator for the analysis of the coupled oscillators. Hence, the three oscillators are approximated by the VDPO. From the nonlinear Van der Pol equations, the oscillators’ key parameters are obtained. It is analysed first the case without component mismatches and then the case with mismatches. The research is focused on determining the impact of the components’ mismatches on the oscillator key parameters: frequency, amplitude-, and quadrature-errors. Furthermore, the minimization of the errors by adjusting the circuit parameters is addressed. A novel quadrature RC-oscillator using capacitive coupling is proposed. The advantages of using the capacitive coupling are that it is noiseless, requires a small area, and has low power dissipation. The equations of the oscillation amplitude, frequency, quadrature-error, and amplitude mismatch are derived. The theoretical results are confirmed by simulation and by measurement of two prototypes fabricated in 130 nm standard complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) technology. The measurements reveal that the power increase due to the coupling is marginal, leading to a figure-of-merit of -154.8 dBc/Hz. These results are consistent with the noiseless feature of this coupling and are comparable to those of the best state-of-the-art RC-oscillators, in the GHz range, but with the lowest power consumption (about 9 mW). The results for the three oscillators show that the amplitude- and the quadrature-errors are proportional to the component mismatches and inversely proportional to the coupling strength. Thus, increasing the coupling strength decreases both the amplitude- and quadrature-errors. With proper coupling strength, a quadrature error below 1° and amplitude imbalance below 1% are obtained. Furthermore, the simulations show that increasing the coupling strength reduces the phase noise. Hence, there is no trade-off between phase noise and quadrature error. In the twointegrator oscillator study, it was found that the quadrature error can be eliminated by adjusting the transconductances to compensate the capacitance mismatch. However, to obtain outputs in perfect quadrature one must allow some amplitude error.

Measurement of Spin Correlation in Top-Antitop Quark Events and Search for Top Squark Pair Production in pp Collisions at s√=8 TeV Using the ATLAS Detector

A measurement of spin correlation in tt¯ production is presented using data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1. The correlation between the top and antitop quark spins is extracted from dilepton tt¯ events by using the difference in azimuthal angle between the two charged leptons in the laboratory frame. In the helicity basis the measured degree of correlation corresponds to Ahelicity=0.38±0.04, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction. A search is performed for pair production of top squarks with masses close to the top quark mass decaying to predominantly right-handed top quarks and a light neutralino, the lightest supersymmetric particle. Top squarks with masses between the top quark mass and 191 GeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level.

Observation and measurement of Higgs boson decays to WW∗ with the ATLAS detector

We report the observation of Higgs boson decays to WW∗ based on an excess over background of 6.1 standard deviations in the dilepton final state, where the Standard Model expectation is 5.8 standard deviations. Evidence for the vector-boson fusion (VBF) production process is obtained with a significance of 3.2 standard deviations. The results are obtained from a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 25 pb−1 from s√=7 and 8 TeV pp collisions recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. For a Higgs boson mass of 125.36 GeV, the ratio of the measured value to the expected value of the total production cross section times branching fraction is 1.09+0.16−0.15 (stat.)+0.17−0.14 (syst.). The corresponding ratios for the gluon fusion and vector-boson fusion production mechanisms are 1.02±0.19 (stat.)+0.22−0.18 (syst.) and 1.27+0.44−0.40 (stat.)+0.30−0.21 (syst.), respectively. At s√=8 TeV, the total production cross sections are measured to be σ(gg→ H→WW∗)=4.6±0.9(stat.)+0.8−0.7(syst.)pb and σ(VBF H→WW∗)=0.51+0.17−0.15(stat.)+0.13−0.08(syst.)pb. The fiducial cross section is determined for the gluon-fusion process in exclusive final states with zero or one associated jet.

Measurement of the forward-backward asymmetry of electron and muon pair-production in pp collisions at s√ = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements from the ATLAS experiment of the forward-backward asymmetry in the reaction pp→Z/γ∗→l+l−, with l being electrons or muons, and the extraction of the effective weak mixing angle. The results are based on the full set of data collected in 2011 in pp collisions at the LHC at s√ = 7 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.8 fb−1. The measured asymmetry values are found to be in agreement with the corresponding Standard Model predictions. The combination of the muon and electron channels yields a value of the effective weak mixing angle of 0.2308±0.0005(stat.)±0.0006(syst.)±0.0009(PDF), where the first uncertainty corresponds to data statistics, the second to systematic effects and the third to knowledge of the parton density functions. This result agrees with the current world average from the Particle Data Group fit.