Sequential monitoring of hospital adverse events when control charts fail : the example of fall injuries in hospitals

Objective To evaluate methods for monitoring monthly aggregated hospital adverse event data that display clustering, non-linear trends and possible autocorrelation. Design Retrospective audit. Setting The Northern Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Participants 171,059 patients admitted between January 2001 and December 2006. Measurements The analysis is illustrated with 72 months of patient fall injury data using a modified Shewhart U control chart, and charts derived from a quasi-Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) and a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that included an approximate upper control limit. Results The data were overdispersed and displayed a downward trend and possible autocorrelation. The downward trend was followed by a predictable period after December 2003. The GLM-estimated incidence rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) per month. The GAMM-fitted count fell from 12.67 (95% CI 10.05 to 15.97) in January 2001 to 5.23 (95% CI 3.82 to 7.15) in December 2006 (p<0.001). The corresponding values for the GLM were 11.9 and 3.94. Residual plots suggested that the GLM underestimated the rate at the beginning and end of the series and overestimated it in the middle. The data suggested a more rapid rate fall before 2004 and a steady state thereafter, a pattern reflected in the GAMM chart. The approximate upper two-sigma equivalent control limit in the GLM and GAMM charts identified 2 months that showed possible special-cause variation. Conclusion Charts based on GAMM analysis are a suitable alternative to Shewhart U control charts with these data.

Simulation study for analysis of online dielectric measurement problems on transformer insulation system

Determining the condition as well as the remaining life of an insulation system is essential for the reliable operation of large oil-filled power transformers. Frequency-domain spectroscopy (FDS) is one of the diagnostic techniques used to identify the dielectric status of a transformer. Currently, this technique can only be implemented on a de-energized transformer. This paper presents an initial investigation into a novel online monitoring method based on FDS dielectric measurements for transformers. The proposed technique specifically aims to address the real operational constraints of online testing. This is achieved by designing an online testing model extending the basic “extended Debye” linear dielectric model and taking unique noise issues only experienced during online measurements into account via simulations. Approaches to signal denoising and potential problems expected to be encountered during online measurements will also be discussed. Using fixed-frequency sinusoidal excitation waveforms will result in a long measurement times. The use of alternatives such as a chirp has been investigated using simulations. The results presented in the paper predict that reliable measurements should be possible during online testing.

Dosimetry of cone-defined stereotactic radiosurgery fields with a commercial synthetic diamond detector

Purpose Small field x-ray beam dosimetry is difficult due to a lack of lateral electronic equilibrium, source occlusion, high dose gradients and detector volume averaging. Currently there is no single definitive detector recommended for small field dosimetry. The objective of this work was to evaluate the performance of a new commercial synthetic diamond detector, namely the PTW 60019 microDiamond, for the dosimetry of small x-ray fields as used in stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods Small field sizes were defined by BrainLAB circular cones (4 – 30 mm diameter) on a Novalis Trilogy linear accelerator and using the 6 MV SRS x-ray beam mode for all measurements. Percentage depth doses were measured and compared to an IBA SFD and a PTW 60012 E diode. Cross profiles were measured and compared to an IBA SFD diode. Field factors, Ω_(Q_clin,Q_msr)^(f_clin,f_msr ), were calculated by Monte Carlo methods using BEAMnrc and correction factors, k_(Q_clin,Q_msr)^(f_clin,f_msr ), were derived for the PTW 60019 microDiamond detector. Results For the small fields of 4 to 30 mm diameter, there were dose differences in the PDDs of up to 1.5% when compared to an IBA SFD and PTW 60012 E diode detector. For the cross profile measurements the penumbra values varied, depending upon the orientation of the detector. The field factors, Ω_(Q_clin,Q_msr)^(f_clin,f_msr ), were calculated for these field diameters at a depth of 1.4 cm in water and they were within 2.7% of published values for a similar linear accelerator. The corrections factors, k_(Q_clin,Q_msr)^(f_clin,f_msr ), were derived for the PTW 60019 microDiamond detector. Conclusions We conclude that the new PTW 60019 microDiamond detector is generally suitable for relative dosimetry in small 6 MV SRS beams for a Novalis Trilogy linear equipped with circular cones.

The sideways hourglass : establishing the lemniscate as a narrative structure for writing and reading non-linear stories

This thesis is a study in narratology that examines the pre-theoretical ideas that underlie the study of narrative and time. The thesis explores how the lemniscate can be transported from geometry to narrative in order to structure a non-linear story that breaks the rules of causality and chronology by coupling physical movement through space with the backward pull of memory. The findings offer new possibilities for understanding the nexus between shape and story and for recording non-linear narratives that are marked by simultaneity, counterpoint, and reversal.

Pipeline renewal decision support : a case study using LinEAR in a water pipeline network

This paper presents a case study for the application of a Linear Engineering Asset Renewal decision support software tool (LinEAR) at a water distribution network in Australia. This case study examines how the LinEAR can assist water utilities to minimise their total pipeline management cost, to make a long-term budget based on mathematically predicted expenditure, and to present calculated evidence for supporting their expenditure requirements. The outcomes from the study on pipeline renewal decision support demonstrate that LinEAR can help water utilities to improve the decision process and save renewal costs over a long-term by providing an optimum renewal schedules. This software can help organisation to accumulate technical knowledge and prediction future impact of the decision using what-if analysis.

A non-linear interface element model for thin layer high adhesive mortared masonry

A nonlinear interface element modelling method is formulated for the prediction of deformation and failure of high adhesive thin layer polymer mortared masonry exhibiting failure of units and mortar. Plastic flow vectors are explicitly integrated within the implicit finite element framework instead of relying on predictor–corrector like approaches. The method is calibrated using experimental data from uniaxial compression, shear triplet and flexural beam tests. The model is validated using a thin layer mortared masonry shear wall, whose experimental datasets are reported in the literature and is used to examine the behaviour of thin layer mortared masonry under biaxial loading.

Thrust allocation with linear constrained quadratic cost function

In this paper, a method of thrust allocation based on a linearly constrained quadratic cost function capable of handling rotating azimuths is presented. The problem formulation accounts for magnitude and rate constraints on both thruster forces and azimuth angles. The advantage of this formulation is that the solution can be found with a finite number of iterations for each time step. Experiments with a model ship are used to validate the thrust allocation system.

Electrocatalytic oxidation of ascorbic acid using a single layer of gold nanoparticles immobilized on 1,6-hexanedithiol modified gold electrode

This paper describes the electrocatalytic oxidation of ascorbic acid (AA) in phosphate buffer solution by the immobilized citrate capped gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) on 1,6-hexanedithiol (HDT) modified Au electrode. X-ray photoelectron spectrum (XPS) of HDT suggests that it forms a monolayer on Au surface through one of the two single bondSH groups and the other single bondSH group is pointing away from the electrode surface. The free single bondSH groups of HDT were used to covalently attach colloidal AuNPs. The covalent attachment of AuNPs on HDT monolayer was confirmed from the observed characteristic carboxylate ion stretching modes of citrate attached with AuNPs in the infra-red reflection absorption spectrum (IRRAS) in addition to a higher reductive desorption charges obtained for AuNPs immobilized on HDT modified Au (Au/HDT/AuNPs) electrode in 0.1 M KOH when compared to HDT modified Au (Au/HDT) electrode. The electron transfer reaction of [Fe(CN)6]4−/3− was markedly hindered at the HDT modified Au (Au/HDT) electrode while it was restored with a peak separation of 74 mV after the immobilization of AuNPs on Au/HDT (Au/HDT/AuNPs) electrode indicating a good electronic communication between the immobilized AuNPs and the underlying bulk Au electrode through a HDT monolayer. The Cottrell slope obtained from the potential-step chronoamperometric measurements for the reduction of ferricyanide at Au/HDT/AuNPs was higher than that of bare Au electrode indicating the increased effective surface area of AuNPs modified electrode. The Au/HDT/AuNPs electrode exhibits excellent electrocatalytic activity towards the oxidation of ascorbic acid (AA) by enhancing the oxidation peak current to more than two times with a 210 mV negative shift in the oxidation potential when compared to a bare Au electrode. The standard heterogeneous electron transfer rate constant (ks) calculated for AA oxidation at Au/HDT/AuNPs electrode was 5.4 × 10−3 cm s−1. The oxidation peak of AA at Au/HDT/AuNPs electrode was highly stable upon repeated potential cycling. Linear calibration plot was obtained for AA over the concentration range of 1–110 μM with a correlation coefficient of 0.9950. The detection limit of AA was found to be 1 μM. The common physiological interferents such as glucose, oxalate ions and urea do not show any interference within the detection limit of AA. The selectivity of the AuNPs modified electrode was illustrated by the determination of AA in the presence of uric acid.

kmth price sealed-bid auctions with general independent values and equilibrium linear mark-ups

A generalised bidding model is developed to calculate a bidder’s expected profit and auctioners expected revenue/payment for both a General Independent Value and Independent Private Value (IPV) kmth price sealed-bid auction (where the mth bidder wins at the kth bid payment) using a linear (affine) mark-up function. The Common Value (CV) assumption, and highbid and lowbid symmetric and asymmetric First Price Auctions and Second Price Auctions are included as special cases. The optimal n bidder symmetric analytical results are then provided for the uniform IPV and CV models in equilibrium. Final comments concern implications, the assumptions involved and prospects for further research.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making