888 resultados para likelihood-based inference
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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This work presents the design of a fuzzy controller with simplified architecture that use an artificial neural network working as the aggregation operator for several active fuzzy rules. The simplified architecture of the fuzzy controller is used to minimize the time processing used in the closed loop system operation, the basic procedures of fuzzification are simplified to maximum while all the inference procedures are computed in a private way. As consequence, this simplified architecture allows a fast and easy configuration of the simplified fuzzy controller. The structuring of the fuzzy rules that define the control actions is previously computed using an artificial neural network based on CMAC Cerebellar Model Articulation Controller. The operational limits are standardized and all the control actions are previously calculated and stored in memory. For applications, results and conclusions several configurations of this fuzzy controller are considered.
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The crossflow filtration process differs of the conventional filtration by presenting the circulation flow tangentially to the filtration surface. The conventional mathematical models used to represent the process have some limitations in relation to the identification and generalization of the system behavior. In this paper, a system based on fuzzy logic systems is developed to overcome the problems usually found in the conventional mathematical models. Imprecisions and uncertainties associated with the measurements made on the system are automatically incorporated in the fuzzy approach. Simulation results are presented to justify the validity of the proposed approach.
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This paper describes a novel approach for mapping lightning processes using fuzzy logic. The core regarding lightning process is to identify and to model those uncertain information on mathematical principles. In fact, the lightning process involves several nonlinear features that our current mathematical tools would not be able to model. The estimation process has been carried out using a fuzzy system based on Sugeno's architecture. Simulation results confirm that proposed approach can be efficiently used in these types of problem.
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This paper presents a new methodology for the adjustment of fuzzy inference systems, which uses technique based on error back-propagation method. The free parameters of the fuzzy inference system, such as its intrinsic parameters of the membership function and the weights of the inference rules, are automatically adjusted. This methodology is interesting, not only for the results presented and obtained through computer simulations, but also for its generality concerning to the kind of fuzzy inference system used. Therefore, this methodology is expandable either to the Mandani architecture or also to that suggested by Takagi-Sugeno. The validation of the presented methodology is accomplished through estimation of time series and by a mathematical modeling problem. More specifically, the Mackey-Glass chaotic time series is used for the validation of the proposed methodology. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.
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The disturbance vicariance hypothesis (DV) has been proposed to explain speciation in Amazonia, especially its edge regions, e. g. in eastern Guiana Shield harlequin frogs (Atelopus) which are suggested to have derived from a cool-adapted Andean ancestor. In concordance with DV predictions we studied that (i) these amphibians display a natural distribution gap in central Amazonia; (ii) east of this gap they constitute a monophyletic lineage which is nested within a pre-Andean/western clade; (iii) climate envelopes of Atelopus west and east of the distribution gap show some macroclimatic divergence due to a regional climate envelope shift; (iv) geographic distributions of climate envelopes of western and eastern Atelopus range into central Amazonia but with limited spatial overlap. We tested if presence and apparent absence data points of Atelopus were homogenously distributed with Ripley's K function. A molecular phylogeny (mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene) was reconstructed using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference to study if Guianan Atelopus constitute a clade nested within a larger genus phylogeny. We focused on climate envelope divergence and geographic distribution by computing climatic envelope models with MaxEnt based on macroscale bioclimatic parameters and testing them by using Schoener's index and modified Hellinger distance. We corroborated existing DV predictions and, for the first time, formulated new DV predictions aiming on species' climate envelope change. Our results suggest that cool-adapted Andean Atelopus ancestors had dispersed into the Amazon basin and further onto the eastern Guiana Shield where, under warm conditions, they were forced to change climate envelopes. © 2010 The Author(s).
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The objective of this experiment was to test in vitro embryo production (IVP) as a tool to estimate fertility performance in zebu bulls using Bayesian inference statistics. Oocytes were matured and fertilized in vitro using sperm cells from three different Zebu bulls (V, T, and G). The three bulls presented similar results with regard to pronuclear formation and blastocyst formation rates. However, the cleavage rates were different between bulls. The estimated conception rates based on combined data of cleavage and blastocyst formation were very similar to the true conception rates observed for the same bulls after a fixed-time artificial insemination program. Moreover, even when we used cleavage rate data only or blastocyst formation data only, the estimated conception rates were still close to the true conception rates. We conclude that Bayesian inference is an effective statistical procedure to estimate in vivo bull fertility using data from IVP. © 2011 Mateus José Sudano et al.
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Pós-graduação em Biologia Animal - IBILCE
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Pós-graduação em Genética e Melhoramento Animal - FCAV
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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The systematics of the subfamily Callitrichinae (Platyrrhini, Primates), a group of small monkeys from South America and Panama, remains an area of considerable discussion despite many investigations, there being continuing controversy over subgeneric taxonomic classifications based on morphological characters. The purpose of our research was to help elucidate the phylogenetic relationships within the monkey genus Saguinus (Callitrichinae) using a molecular approach to discover whether or not the two different sections containing hairy-faced and bare-faced species are monophyletic, whether Saguinus midas midas and Saguinus bicolor are more closely related than are S. midas midas and Saguinus midas niger, and if Saguinus fuscicollis melanoleucus and Saguinus fuscicollis weddelli really are different species. We sequenced the 957 bp ND1 mitochondrial gene of 21 Saguinus monkeys (belonging to six species and nine morphotypes) and one Cebus monkey (the outgroup) and constructed phylogenetic trees using maximum parsimony, neighbor joining, and maximum likelihood methods. The phylogenetic trees obtained divided the genus Saguinus into two groups, one containing the small-bodied species S. fuscicollis and the other, the large-bodied species S. mystax, S. leucopus, S. oedipus, S. midas, S. bicolor. The most derived taxa, S. midas and S. bicolor, grouped together, while S. fuscicollis melanoleucus and S. f. weddelli showed divergence values that did not support the division of these morphotypes into subspecies. On the other hand, S. midas individuals showed divergence compatible with the existence of three subspecies, two of them with the same morphotype as the subspecies S. midas niger. The results of our study suggest that there is at least one Saguinus subspecies that has not yet been described and that the conservation status of Saguinus species and subspecies should be carefully revised using modern molecular approaches.
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Os guaribas, do gênero Alouatta, que são os primatas do Novo Mundo com maior distribuição geográfica, têm sido colocados em três grupos de espécies: o grupo Alouatta palliata da América central, e os grupos sulamericanos Alouatta seniculus e Alouatta caraya. Este último é monotípico, mas o grupo A. seniculus inclui pelo menos três espécies (A. seniculus, A. belzebul e A. fusca). Neste estudo, foram seqüenciados aproximadamente 600 pares de base do pseudogene globina g1 nas quatro espécies brasileiras (A. seniculus, A. belzebul, A. fusca e A. caraya). Os métodos de máxima parcimônia e máxima verossimilhança produziram árvores filogenéticas com o mesmo arranjo: {A. caraya [A. seniculus (A. fusca, A. belzebul)]}. A árvore mais parcimoniosa apresentou valores de bootstrap maiores de 82% para todos os agrupamentos, e valores de força de ligação de pelo menos 2, apoiando o agrupamento irmão de A. fusca e A. belzebul. O estudo também confirmou a presença em A. fusca do elemento de inserção Alu, com 150 pares de base, e uma deleção de 1,8 kb no pseudogene globina g1 já conhecidos nas demais espécies de guaribas. A classificação cladística baseada em dados moleculares é congruente com as de estudos morfológicos, com um isolamento claro do grupo monoespecífico A. caraya em relação ao grupo A. seniculus.
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A região do Baixo Tocantins - ilha do Marajó é excelente local para se realizar um estudo de integração de dados geológicos e biológicos visando-se a compreensão dos processos de diversificação de espécies. Foram estimados parâmetros de genética populacional e realizadas análises filo genéticas das populações amostradas utilizando-se o gene ND2, relacionando-os com o cenário geológico proposto para a evolução da região. Foram utilizadas inferência bayesiana e máxima verossimilhança para reconstrução de filogenias intraespecíficas, redes de haplótipos e o teste de desvio de neutralidade R2, AMOVA, F ST e Nm para as análises populacionais, para três espécies de aves Passeriformes: Xiphorhynchus spixii e Glyphorynchs spirurus (Dendrocolaptidae) e Willisornis poecilinotus (Thamnophilidae). As populações de X spixii não apresentaram estruturação geográfica, exibindo altos níveis de fluxo gênico entre elas. A árvore filogenética de G. spirurus apresentou um grupo de haplótipos únicos da ilha do Marajó (1M) e um grupo irmão contendo haplótipos pertencentes às áreas de endemismo Xingu (XI), Belém (BE) e 1M. Essa topologia indica um aparente contato secundário recente na 1M entre uma população isolada e endêmica da própria ilha com populações do continente (XI). A árvore obtida para W poecilinotus apresentou uma topologia semelhante àquela de G. spirurus, indicando que a formação da 1M provavelmente atuou de maneira similar em diferentes espécies, com similares capacidades de dispersão, gerando padrões filogeográficos concordantes. Comparando--se as três espécies, concluímos que X spixii possui maior capacidade de dispersão respondendo de maneira distinta ao mesmo efeito vicariante. Estimativas do relógio molecular para o nó que separa o grupo de haplótipos endêmicos da ilha do Marajó mostram que tanto as populações de G. spirurus, quanto às de W. poecilinotus são muito mais antigas que os eventos que levaram à separação total da 1M em relação ao continente (aproximadamente 10.000 anos AP), com uma idade estimada aproximadamente 747.000 anos AP para G. spirurus e 798.000 anos AP para W. poecilinotus, indicando que outros processos vicariantes anteriores à separação total da Ilha do Marajó poderiam ter separado essas populações endêmicas da ilha.
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The use of wireless local area networks, called WLANs, as well as the proliferation of the use of multimedia applications have grown rapidly in recent years. Some factors affect the quality of service (QoS) received by the user and interference is one of them. This work presents strategies for planning and performance evaluation through an empirical study of the QoS parameters of a voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) application in an interference network, as well as the relevance in the design of wireless networks to determine the coverage area of an access point, taking into account several parameters such as power, jitter, packet loss, delay, and PMOS. Another strategy is based on a hybrid approach that considers measuring and Bayesian inference applied to wireless networks, taking into consideration QoS parameters. The models take into account a cross layer vision of networks, correlating aspects of the physical environment, on the signal propagation (power or distance) with aspects of VoIP applications (e.g., jitter and packet loss). Case studies were carried out for two indoor environments and two outdoor environments, one of them displaying main characteristics of the Amazon region (e.g., densely arboreous environments). This last test bed was carried out in a real system because the Government of the State of Pará has a digital inclusion program called NAVEGAPARÁ.