O regime do contrato individual de trabalho da Administração Pública e a Constituição Portuguesa

In, Lusíada – Direito, II Série, nº 3 de 2005

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Structured products in the current low interest rate environment

Directed Research Internship

Detection of arboviruses of public health interest in free-living New World primates (Sapajus spp.; Alouatta caraya) captured in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Introduction A sero-epidemiological survey was undertaken to detect the circulation of arboviruses in free-living non-human primates. Methods Blood samples were obtained from 16 non-human primates (13 Sapajus spp. and three Alouatta caraya) that were captured using terrestrial traps and anesthetic darts in woodland regions in the municipalities of Campo Grande, Aquidauana, Jardim, Miranda and Corumbá in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The samples were sent to the Instituto Evandro Chagas (IEC) in Ananindeua, Pará, Brazil, to detect antibodies against 19 species of arboviruses using a hemagglutination inhibition test (HI). Results Of the 16 primates investigated in the present study, five (31.2%) were serologically positive for an arbovirus. Of these five, two (12.5%) exhibited antibodies to the Flavivirus genus, one (6.2%) exhibited a monotypic reaction to Cacipacoré virus, one (6.2%) was associated with Mayaro virus, and one (6.2%) was positive for Oropouche virus. Conclusions Based on the positive serology observed in the present study, it was possible to conclude that arboviruses circulate among free-living primates. The viruses in the areas studied might have been introduced by infected humans or by primates from endemic or enzootic areas. Studies of this nature, as well as efficient and continuous surveillance programs, are needed to monitor viral activities in endemic and enzootic regions.

Covered interest parity

This report aims to study the evolution of the Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) over the course of the last years. With the 2007 financial crisis many fundamental relationships changed, and CIP was not an exception. To infer whether or not this was an isolate event, the behaviour of the CIP during the European Sovereign debt crisis was studied. Currency pairs such as EURUSD showed significant CIP deviations during both crises. This work shows that currently, spreads are mostly explained by counterparty risk and market sentiment factors, which are extremely different factors from the ones explaining the spread during 2003-06. Key

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

The role of individual ability and structural embeddedness on entrepreneurial success

In the present thesis I analyse the roles of individual ability and structural embeddedness on entrepreneurial success. The results retrieved from a matched employer-employee longitudinal data set show prior worker productivities and environmental embeddedness to have a persistent positive impact on the size and growth rates of new firms. What is more, embeddedness facilitates the impact of ability on start-up performance with outsiders of comparable abilities starting smaller and slower growing firms. Those in higher ability categories are more likely to transfer and also, albeit to a lesser extent, close their ventures, an effect attributed to the higher opportunity costs associated with the group. Firms managed by embedded agents enjoy longer longevities and have better chances of finding a new owner after the departure of the previous one. Finally, higher ability types show evidence of specialisation in serial entrepreneurship.

Evaluation of arboviruses of public health interest in free-living non-human primates (Alouatta spp., Callithrix spp., Sapajus spp.) in Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the presence of arboviruses from the Flavivirus genus in asymptomatic free-living non-human primates (NHPs) living in close contact with humans and vectors in the States of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: NHP sera samples (total n = 80, Alouatta spp. n = 07, Callithrix spp. n = 29 and Sapajus spp. n = 44) were screened for the presence of viral genomes using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and 10% polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis techniques. RESULTS: All of the samples were negative for the Flavivirus genome following the 10% polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These negative results indicate that the analyzed animals were not infected with arboviruses from the Flavivirus genus and did not represent a risk for viral transmission through vectors during the period in which the samples were collected.

UK Mental health professionals volunteering in LMIC-benefits to UK and host countries

RESUMO: O Royal College of Psychiatrists tem um programa de voluntariado internacional desde 2005. O interesse no Reino Unido tem crescido nos últimos 15 anos com muitos projetos novos. Os benefícios para vários países têm sido reconhecidos. O que está menos claro são os benefícios da experiência para o Reino Unido e do programa de voluntariado do Royal College of Psychiatrists. O objectivo desta dissertação é explorar os benefícios do voluntariado para o Sistema Nacional de Saúde focando principalmente, mas não exclusivamente, o programa de voluntariado do Royal College of Psychiatrists. Nesta dissertação abordamos primeiro o contexto antes de discutirmos dois grandes estudos de psiquiatras e hospitais do Sistema Nacional de Saúde no Reino Unido. Incluimos no estudo todos os psiquiatras registados como Voluntários no Royal College of Psychiatrists e o Grupo de Interesse Especial associado. Foi ainda possível incluir os Diretores Médicos de todos os hospitais do Reino Unido. Os estudos foram desenhados para analisar as opiniões dos Voluntários do Reino Unido sobre os benefícios para os países recetores de baixo e médio rendimento e para o Reino Unido. Todos os 60 hospitais do Sistema Nacional de Saúde foram incluí dos para analisar a opinião sobre Voluntariado. As limitações dos estudos foram a baixa taxa de resposta, mas esta foi comparável a outros estudos do College. É provável haver um enviezamento de resposta e favorecimento dos que estão envolvidos no Voluntariado. Os resultados mostraram um interesse forte no voluntariado e benefícios no Sistema Nacional de Saúde, nas. áreas de liderança, transculturalismo, gestão e recursos e capacidades pessoais. Os hospitais do Sistema Nacional de Saúde valorizaram o voluntariado e, em contrapartida, o valor acrescido para competências profissionais. Os obstáculos contra o Voluntariado a nível individual e dos hospitais foram maioritariamente de natureza prática, tais como obter dispensa do trabalho, substituição no trabalho e custos. As implicações destes estudos são que o programa de voluntariado do College precisa de ser fortalecido. Para assegurar que este trabalho continua é necessário existir uma sensibilização nacional e maior responsabilização sobre os benefícios para o Reino Unido e a nível global. -------------------------- ABSTRACT: The Royal College of Psychiatrists has had an international volunteering programme since 2005. The interest in UK has grown over the past 15 years with many new projects. The benefits in various countries has been acknowledged. What has been less clear are the benefits of the experience back in the UK and of the Royal College of Psychiatrists Volunteer Scheme. The aim of this dissertation is to explore the benefit of volunteering to the NHS focusing mainly, but not exclusively on the Royal College of Psychiatrists Volunteering scheme. In this dissertation we first look at background information before discussing two large surveys of Psychiatrists and NHS Trusts in UK. We surveyed all those registered as Volunteers at the Royal College of Psychiatrists and the associated Special Interest Group. We also were able to survey the Medical Directors of all UK Trusts. The Surveys were designed to assess views of UK Volunteers of benefits to hosts in LMIC and back in UK. All 60 NHS Trusts were surveyed to assess the view of Volunteering. Limitation of the surveys were the low response rate but this was comparable to other College surveys. There is likely to be a bias in response and favour those who are engaged in the Volunteering agenda. Results showed a strong interest in volunteering and perceived benefits in NHS. These areas included leadership, transcultural, resource management and personal skills. NHS trusts valued volunteering and added value to professional competencies on return. Obstacles to Volunteering at individual and Trust level were mainly practical issues such as getting time off, cover and costs. Implications of these surveys are that the College volunteering scheme needs strengthening. There needs to be a National advocacy to ensure that this work continues and greater accountability as to benefits in UK and globally.

Banco Invest understanding how to grow in the Portuguese individual clients segment the client analysis

Field lab: Business project

The determinants of net interest margins & net interest spreads in the Russian & Japanese Commercial Banking sectors

This study presents an empirical investigation of the determinants of net interest margins and spreads in the Russian and Japanese banking sectors with a particular focus on commercial banks. Net interest mar-gins and spreads serve as indicators of financial intermediation efficiency. This paper employed a bank-level unbalanced panel dataset prolonging from 2005 to 2014. My main empirical results show that bank characteristics explain the most of the variation in not only net interest margins but also in spreads. Capi-talization, liquidity risk, inflation, economic growth, private and government debt are important determi-nants of margin in Russia. In Japan to the contrary loan and deposit market concentration along with bank size do predominate. Common significant variables in both countries are the substitution effect, cost effi-ciency and profitability. Turning to net interest spreads, micro- and macro-specific variables are the main significant drivers in Russia. I reach the conclusion that there are no significant determinants of net interest spreads in Japan within the original selection of variables, but operating efficiency and deposits to total funding seem to prevail. In both countries, there are solid differences in the net interest margins as well as spreads once the pre- and the post-crisis periods are considered.

Critical incident study on forgiveness in the organizational context

Forgiveness has been subject of interest, mainly in the psychology fields of study. Relatively to the organizational context, this topic has been somehow put aside and settled as something that is purely an intra-individual phenomenon which organizations cannot force, or even stimulate. As conflicts are common within organizations and being often difficult to overcome, eyes have turned into the role forgiveness might take in this scenario. Despite forgiveness being accepted as an intrapersonal decision and a result of predisposition as it is a result of education and culture. This study, as some already done, refuses to accept forgiveness as an unchangeable behavior that cannot be manipulated or induced by managers or by organizational context. Therefore, offering a set of incidents as well as their classification, that have been identified by individuals performing different types organizational roles in different organization which is believed as being a genuine way of delivering to the reader a set of actions and behaviors that if taken, may incentivize or inhibit forgiveness.

Banco invest: Understanding how to grow in teh portuguese individual clients segment competitors analysis

Field lab: Business project

Banco invest: Understanding how to grow in the portuguese individual clients segment benchnarking

Field lab: Business project