Damage assessment in reinforced concrete flexural members using modal strain energy based method

Damage assessment (damage detection, localization and quantification) in structures and appropriate retrofitting will enable the safe and efficient function of the structures. In this context, many Vibration Based Damage Identification Techniques (VBDIT) have emerged with potential for accurate damage assessment. VBDITs have achieved significant research interest in recent years, mainly due to their non-destructive nature and ability to assess inaccessible and invisible damage locations. Damage Index (DI) methods are also vibration based, but they are not based on the structural model. DI methods are fast and inexpensive compared to the model-based methods and have the ability to automate the damage detection process. DI method analyses the change in vibration response of the structure between two states so that the damage can be identified. Extensive research has been carried out to apply the DI method to assess damage in steel structures. Comparatively, there has been very little research interest in the use of DI methods to assess damage in Reinforced Concrete (RC) structures due to the complexity of simulating the predominant damage type, the flexural crack. Flexural cracks in RC beams distribute non- linearly and propagate along all directions. Secondary cracks extend more rapidly along the longitudinal and transverse directions of a RC structure than propagation of existing cracks in the depth direction due to stress distribution caused by the tensile reinforcement. Simplified damage simulation techniques (such as reductions in the modulus or section depth or use of rotational spring elements) that have been extensively used with research on steel structures, cannot be applied to simulate flexural cracks in RC elements. This highlights a big gap in knowledge and as a consequence VBDITs have not been successfully applied to damage assessment in RC structures. This research will address the above gap in knowledge and will develop and apply a modal strain energy based DI method to assess damage in RC flexural members. Firstly, this research evaluated different damage simulation techniques and recommended an appropriate technique to simulate the post cracking behaviour of RC structures. The ABAQUS finite element package was used throughout the study with properly validated material models. The damaged plasticity model was recommended as the method which can correctly simulate the post cracking behaviour of RC structures and was used in the rest of this study. Four different forms of Modal Strain Energy based Damage Indices (MSEDIs) were proposed to improve the damage assessment capability by minimising the numbers and intensities of false alarms. The developed MSEDIs were then used to automate the damage detection process by incorporating programmable algorithms. The developed algorithms have the ability to identify common issues associated with the vibration properties such as mode shifting and phase change. To minimise the effect of noise on the DI calculation process, this research proposed a sequential order of curve fitting technique. Finally, a statistical based damage assessment scheme was proposed to enhance the reliability of the damage assessment results. The proposed techniques were applied to locate damage in RC beams and slabs on girder bridge model to demonstrate their accuracy and efficiency. The outcomes of this research will make a significant contribution to the technical knowledge of VBDIT and will enhance the accuracy of damage assessment in RC structures. The application of the research findings to RC flexural members will enable their safe and efficient performance.

An optimized online secondary path modeling method for single-channel feedback ANC systems

This paper proposes a new method for online secondary path modeling in feedback active noise control (ANC) systems. In practical cases, the secondary path is usually time varying. For these cases, online modeling of secondary path is required to ensure convergence of the system. In literature the secondary path estimation is usually performed offline, prior to online modeling, where in the proposed system there is no need for using offline estimation. The proposed method consists of two steps: a noise controller which is based on an FxLMS algorithm, and a variable step size (VSS) LMS algorithm which is used to adapt the modeling filter with the secondary path. In order to increase performance of the algorithm in a faster convergence and accurate performance, we stop the VSS-LMS algorithm at the optimum point. The results of computer simulation shown in this paper indicate effectiveness of the proposed method.

Mid-gestation intra-amniotic infection with Ureaplasma parvum is resolved within spiny mice (Acomys cahirinus) by term delivery: but caused chronic infection of fetal lungs and placentae

Background: Ureaplasma species in amniotic fluid at the time of second-trimester amniocentesis increases the risk of preterm birth, but most affected pregnancies continue to term (Gerber et al. J Infect Dis 2003). We aimed to model intra-amniotic (IA) ureaplasma infection in spiny mice, a species with a relatively long gestation (39 days) that allows investigation of the disposition and possible clearance of ureaplasmas in the feto-placental compartment. Method: Pregnant spiny mice received IA injections of U. parvum serovar 6 (10µL, 1x104 colony-forming-units in PBS) or 10B media (10µL; control) at 20 days (d) of gestation (term=39d). At 37d fetuses (n=3 ureaplasma, n=4 control) were surgically delivered and tissues were collected for; bacterial culture, ureaplasma mba and urease gene expression by PCR, tissue WBC counts and indirect fluorescent antibody (IFA) staining using anti-ureaplasma serovar 6 (rabbit) antiserum. Maternal and fetal plasma IgG was measured by Western blot. Results: Ureaplasmas were not detected by culture or PCR in fetal or maternal tissues but were visualized by IFA within placental and fetal lung tissues, in association with inflammatory changes and elevated WBC counts (p<0.0001). Anti-ureaplasma IgG was detected in maternal (2/2 tested) and fetal (1/2 tested) plasma but not in controls (0/3). Conclusions: IA injection of ureaplasmas in mid-gestation spiny mice caused persistent fetal lung and placental infection even though ureaplasmas were undetectable using standard culture or PCR techniques. This is consistent with resolution of IA infection, which may occur in human pregnancies that continue to term despite detection of ureaplasmas in mid-gestation.

Combined electrophoretic deposition–anodization method to fabricate reduced graphene oxide–TiO2 nanotube films

We directly constructed reduced graphene oxide–titanium oxide nanotube (RGO–TNT) film using a single-step, combined electrophoretic deposition–anodization (CEPDA) method. This method, based on the simultaneous anodic growth of tubular TiO2 and the electrophoretic-driven motion of RGO, allowed the formation of an effective interface between the two components, thus improving the electron transfer kinetics. Composites of these graphitic carbons with different levels of oxygen-containing groups, electron conductivity and interface reaction time were investigated; a fine balance of these parameters was achieved.

Developing a method for assessing product inclusivity

In order to develop more inclusive products and services, designers need a means of assessing the inclusivity of existing products and new concepts. Following previous research on the development of scales for inclusive design at University of Cambridge, Engineering Design Centre (EDC) [1], this paper presents the latest version of the exclusion audit method. For a specific product interaction, this estimates the proportion of the Great British population who would be excluded from using a product or service, due to the demands the product places on key user capabilities. A critical part of the method involves rating of the level of demand placed by a task on a range of key user capabilities, so the procedure to perform this assessment was operationalised and then its reliability was tested with 31 participants. There was no evidence that participants rated the same demands consistently. The qualitative results from the experiment suggest that the consistency of participants’ demand level ratings could be significantly improved if the audit materials and their instructions better guided the participant through the judgement process.

Imputation of female labour market experience : some Australian evidence on the Zabalza and Arrufat method

Recent empirical studies of gender discrimination point to the importance of accurately controlling for accumulated labour market experience. Unfortunately in Australia, most data sets do not include information on actual experience. The current paper using data from the National Social Science Survey 1984, examines the efficacy of imputing female labour market experience via the Zabalza and Arrufat (1985) method. The results suggest that the method provides a more accurate measure of experience than that provided by the traditional Mincer proxy. However, the imputation method is sensitive to the choice of identification restrictions. We suggest a novel alternative to a choice between arbitrary restrictions.

A computationally effective alternating direction method for the space and time fractional Bloch–Torrey equation in 3-D

The space and time fractional Bloch–Torrey equation (ST-FBTE) has been used to study anomalous diffusion in the human brain. Numerical methods for solving ST-FBTE in three-dimensions are computationally demanding. In this paper, we propose a computationally effective fractional alternating direction method (FADM) to overcome this problem. We consider ST-FBTE on a finite domain where the time and space derivatives are replaced by the Caputo–Djrbashian and the sequential Riesz fractional derivatives, respectively. The stability and convergence properties of the FADM are discussed. Finally, some numerical results for ST-FBTE are given to confirm our theoretical findings.

A quasi-maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of multivariate diffusions

A quasi-maximum likelihood procedure for estimating the parameters of multi-dimensional diffusions is developed in which the transitional density is a multivariate Gaussian density with first and second moments approximating the true moments of the unknown density. For affine drift and diffusion functions, the moments are exactly those of the true transitional density and for nonlinear drift and diffusion functions the approximation is extremely good and is as effective as alternative methods based on likelihood approximations. The estimation procedure generalises to models with latent factors. A conditioning procedure is developed that allows parameter estimation in the absence of proxies.

Meal induced thermogenesis and appetite : methodological issues and responses to energy restriction

Diet Induced Thermogenesis (DIT) is the energy expended consequent to meal consumption, and reflects the energy required for the processing and digestion of food consumed throughout each day. Although DIT is the total energy expended across a day in digestive processes to a number of meals, most studies measure thermogenesis in response to a single meal (Meal Induced Thermogenesis: MIT) as a representation of an individual’s thermogenic response to acute food ingestion. As a component of energy expenditure, DIT may have a contributing role in weight gain and weight loss. While the evidence is inconsistent, research has tended to reveal a suppressed MIT response in obese compared to lean individuals, which identifies individuals with an efficient storage of food energy, hence a greater tendency for weight gain. Appetite is another factor regulating body weight through its influence on energy intake. Preliminary research has shown a potential link between MIT and postprandial appetite as both are responses to food ingestion and have a similar response dependent upon the macronutrient content of food. There is a growing interest in understanding how both MIT and appetite are modified with changes in diet, activity levels and body size. However, the findings from MIT research have been highly inconsistent, potentially due to the vastly divergent protocols used for its measurement. Therefore, the main theme of this thesis was firstly, to address some of the methodological issues associated with measuring MIT. Additionally this thesis aimed to measure postprandial appetite simultaneously to MIT to test for any relationships between these meal-induced variables and to assess changes that occur in MIT and postprandial appetite during periods of energy restriction (ER) and following weight loss. Two separate studies were conducted to achieve these aims. Based on the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is important to develop accurate methodologies for measuring the components potentially contributing to its development and to understand the variability within these variables. Therefore, the aim of Study One was to establish a protocol for measuring the thermogenic response to a single test meal (MIT), as a representation of DIT across a day. This was done by determining the reproducibility of MIT with a continuous measurement protocol and determining the effect of measurement duration. The benefit of a fixed resting metabolic rate (RMR), which is a single measure of RMR used to calculate each subsequent measure of MIT, compared to separate baseline RMRs, which are separate measures of RMR measured immediately prior to each MIT test meal to calculate each measure of MIT, was also assessed to determine the method with greater reproducibility. Subsidiary aims were to measure postprandial appetite simultaneously to MIT, to determine its reproducibility between days and to assess potential relationships between these two variables. Ten healthy individuals (5 males, 5 females, age = 30.2 ± 7.6 years, BMI = 22.3 ± 1.9 kg/m2, %Fat Mass = 27.6 ± 5.9%) undertook three testing sessions within a 1-4 week time period. During the first visit, participants had their body composition measured using DXA for descriptive purposes, then had an initial 30-minute measure of RMR to familiarise them with the testing and to be used as a fixed baseline for calculating MIT. During the second and third testing sessions, MIT was measured. Measures of RMR and MIT were undertaken using a metabolic cart with a ventilated hood to measure energy expenditure via indirect calorimetry with participants in a semi-reclined position. The procedure on each MIT test day was: 1) a baseline RMR measured for 30 minutes, 2) a 15-minute break in the measure to consume a standard 576 kcal breakfast (54.3% CHO, 14.3% PRO, 31.4% FAT), comprising muesli, milk toast, butter, jam and juice, and 3) six hours of measuring MIT with two, ten-minute breaks at 3 and 4.5 hours for participants to visit the bathroom. On the MIT test days, pre and post breakfast then at 45-minute intervals, participants rated their subjective appetite, alertness and comfort on visual analogue scales (VAS). Prior to each test, participants were required to be fasted for 12 hours, and have undertaken no high intensity physical activity for the previous 48 hours. Despite no significant group changes in the MIT response between days, individual variability was high with an average between-day CV of 33%, which was not significantly improved by the use of a fixed RMR to 31%. The 95% limits of agreements which ranged from 9.9% of energy intake (%EI) to -10.7%EI with the baseline RMRs and between 9.6%EI to -12.4%EI with the fixed RMR, indicated very large changes relative to the size of the average MIT response (MIT 1: 8.4%EI, 13.3%EI; MIT 2: 8.8%EI, 14.7%EI; baseline and fixed RMRs respectively). After just three hours, the between-day CV with the baseline RMR was 26%, which may indicate an enhanced MIT reproducibility with shorter measurement durations. On average, 76, 89, and 96% of the six-hour MIT response was completed within three, four and five hours, respectively. Strong correlations were found between MIT at each of these time points and the total six-hour MIT (range for correlations r = 0.990 to 0.998; P < 0.01). The reproducibility of the proportion of the six-hour MIT completed at 3, 4 and 5 hours was reproducible (between-day CVs ≤ 8.5%). This indicated the suitability to use shorter durations on repeated occasions and a similar percent of the total response to be completed. There was a lack of strong evidence of any relationship between the magnitude of the MIT response and subjective postprandial appetite. Given a six-hour protocol places a considerable burden on participants, these results suggests that a post-meal measurement period of only three hours is sufficient to produce valid information on the metabolic response to a meal. However while there was no mean change in MIT between test days, individual variability was large. Further research is required to better understand which factors best explain the between-day variability in this physiological measure. With such a high prevalence of obesity, dieting has become a necessity to reduce body weight. However, during periods of ER, metabolic and appetite adaptations can occur which may impede weight loss. Understanding how metabolic and appetite factors change during ER and weight loss is important for designing optimal weight loss protocols. The purpose of Study Two was to measure the changes in the MIT response and subjective postprandial appetite during either continuous (CONT) or intermittent (INT) ER and following post diet energy balance (post-diet EB). Thirty-six obese male participants were randomly assigned to either the CONT (Age = 38.6 ± 7.0 years, weight = 109.8 ± 9.2 kg, % fat mass = 38.2 ± 5.2%) or INT diet groups (Age = 39.1 ± 9.1 years, weight = 107.1 ± 12.5 kg, % fat mass = 39.6 ± 6.8%). The study was divided into three phases: a four-week baseline (BL) phase where participants were provided with a diet to maintain body weight, an ER phase lasting either 16 (CONT) or 30 (INT) weeks, where participants were provided with a diet which supplied 67% of their energy balance requirements to induce weight loss and an eight-week post-diet EB phase, providing a diet to maintain body weight post weight loss. The INT ER phase was delivered as eight, two-week blocks of ER interspersed with two-week blocks designed to achieve weight maintenance. Energy requirements for each phase were predicted based on measured RMR, and adjusted throughout the study to account for changes in RMR. All participants completed MIT and appetite tests during BL and the ER phase. Nine CONT and 15 INT participants completed the post-diet EB MIT and 14 INT and 15 CONT participants completed the post-diet EB appetite tests. The MIT test day protocol was as follows: 1) a baseline RMR measured for 30 minutes, 2) a 15-minute break in the measure to consume a standard breakfast meal (874 kcal, 53.3% CHO, 14.5% PRO, 32.2% FAT), and 3) three hours of measuring MIT. MIT was calculated as the energy expenditure above the pre-meal RMR. Appetite test days were undertaken on a separate day using the same 576 kcal breakfast used in Study One. VAS were used to assess appetite pre and post breakfast, at one hour post breakfast then a further three times at 45-minute intervals. Appetite ratings were calculated for hunger and fullness as both the intra-meal change in appetite and the AUC. The three-hour MIT response at BL, ER and post-diet EB respectively were 5.4 ± 1.4%EI, 5.1 ± 1.3%EI and 5.0 ± 0.8%EI for the CONT group and 4.4 ± 1.0%EI, 4.7 ± 1.0%EI and 4.8 ± 0.8%EI for the INT group. Compared to BL, neither group had significant changes in their MIT response during ER or post-diet EB. There were no significant time by group interactions (p = 0.17) indicating a similar response to ER and post-diet EB in both groups. Contrary to what was hypothesised, there was a significant increase in postprandial AUC fullness in response to ER in both groups (p < 0.05). However, there were no significant changes in any of the other postprandial hunger or fullness variables. Despite no changes in MIT in both the CONT or INT group in response to ER or post-diet EB and only a minor increase in postprandial AUC fullness, the individual changes in MIT and postprandial appetite in response to ER were large. However those with the greatest MIT changes did not have the greatest changes in postprandial appetite. This study shows that postprandial appetite and MIT are unlikely to be altered during ER and are unlikely to hinder weight loss. Additionally, there were no changes in MIT in response to weight loss, indicating that body weight did not influence the magnitude of the MIT response. There were large individual changes in both variables, however further research is required to determine whether these changes were real compensatory changes to ER or simply between-day variation. Overall, the results of this thesis add to the current literature by showing the large variability of continuous MIT measurements, which make it difficult to compare MIT between groups and in response to diet interventions. This thesis was able to provide evidence to suggest that shorter measures may provide equally valid information about the total MIT response and can therefore be utilised in future research in order to reduce the burden of long measurements durations. This thesis indicates that MIT and postprandial subjective appetite are most likely independent of each other. This thesis also shows that, on average, energy restriction was not associated with compensatory changes in MIT and postprandial appetite that would have impeded weight loss. However, the large inter-individual variability supports the need to examine individual responses in more detail.

Measuring mechanical properties of tendon in vivo

Introduction: Understanding the mechanical properties of tendon is an important step to guiding the process of improving athletic performance, predicting injury and treating tendinopathies. The speed of sound in a medium is governed by the bulk modulus and density for fluids and isotropic materials. However, for tendon,which is a structural composite of fluid and collagen, there is some anisotropy requiring an adjustment for Poisson’s ratio. In this paper, these relationships are explored and modelled using data collected, in vivo, on human Achilles tendon. Estimates for elastic modulus and hysteresis based on speed of sound data are then compared against published values from in vitro mechanical tests. Methods: Measurements using clinical ultrasound imaging, inverse dynamics and acoustic transmission techniques were used to determine dimensions, loading conditions and longitudinal speed of sound for the Achilles tendon during a series of isometric plantar flexion exercises against body weight. Upper and lower bounds for speed of sound versus tensile stress in the tendon were then modelled and estimates derived for elastic modulus and hysteresis. Results: Axial speed of sound varied between 1850 to 2090 m.s−1 with a non-linear, asymptotic dependency on the level of tensile stress in the tendon 5–35 MPa. Estimates derived for the elastic modulus ranged between 1–2 GPa. Hysteresis derived from models of the stress-strain relationship, ranged from 3–11%. These values agree closely with those previously reported from direct measurements obtained via in vitro mechanical tensile tests on major weight bearing tendons. Discussion: There is sufficiently good agreement between these indirect (speed of sound derived) and direct (mechanical tensile test derived) measures of tendon mechanical properties to validate the use of this non-invasive acoustic transmission technique. This non-invasive method is suitable for monitoring changes in tendon properties as predictors of athletic performance, injury or therapeutic progression.

Simplified method for including spatial correlations in mean-field approximations

Biological systems involving proliferation, migration and death are observed across all scales. For example, they govern cellular processes such as wound-healing, as well as the population dynamics of groups of organisms. In this paper, we provide a simplified method for correcting mean-field approximations of volume-excluding birth-death-movement processes on a regular lattice. An initially uniform distribution of agents on the lattice may give rise to spatial heterogeneity, depending on the relative rates of proliferation, migration and death. Many frameworks chosen to model these systems neglect spatial correlations, which can lead to inaccurate predictions of their behaviour. For example, the logistic model is frequently chosen, which is the mean-field approximation in this case. This mean-field description can be corrected by including a system of ordinary differential equations for pair-wise correlations between lattice site occupancies at various lattice distances. In this work we discuss difficulties with this method and provide a simplication, in the form of a partial differential equation description for the evolution of pair-wise spatial correlations over time. We test our simplified model against the more complex corrected mean-field model, finding excellent agreement. We show how our model successfully predicts system behaviour in regions where the mean-field approximation shows large discrepancies. Additionally, we investigate regions of parameter space where migration is reduced relative to proliferation, which has not been examined in detail before, and our method is successful at correcting the deviations observed in the mean-field model in these parameter regimes.

Development of a simplified design method to predict the fire rating of LSF walls

Recent fire research into the behaviour of light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems has devel-oped fire design rules based on Australian and European cold-formed steel design standards, AS/NZS 4600 and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3. However, these design rules are complex since the LSF wall studs are subjected to non-uniform elevated temperature distributions when the walls are exposed to fire from one side. Therefore this paper proposes an alternative design method for routine predictions of fire resistance rating of LSF walls. In this method, suitable equations are recommended first to predict the idealised stud time-temperature pro-files of eight different LSF wall configurations subject to standard fire conditions based on full scale fire test results. A new set of equations was then proposed to find the critical hot flange (failure) temperature for a giv-en load ratio for the same LSF wall configurations with varying steel grades and thickness. These equations were developed based on detailed finite element analyses that predicted the axial compression capacities and failure times of LSF wall studs subject to non-uniform temperature distributions with varying steel grades and thicknesses. This paper proposes a simple design method in which the two sets of equations developed for time-temperature profiles and critical hot flange temperatures are used to find the failure times of LSF walls. The proposed method was verified by comparing its predictions with the results from full scale fire tests and finite element analyses. This paper presents the details of this study including the finite element models of LSF wall studs, the results from relevant fire tests and finite element analyses, and the proposed equations.

Reconstructing 3D x-ray CT images of polymer gel dosimeters using the zero-scan method

In this study x-ray CT has been used to produce a 3D image of an irradiated PAGAT gel sample, with noise-reduction achieved using the ‘zero-scan’ method. The gel was repeatedly CT scanned and a linear fit to the varying Hounsfield unit of each pixel in the 3D volume was evaluated across the repeated scans, allowing a zero-scan extrapolation of the image to be obtained. To minimise heating of the CT scanner’s x-ray tube, this study used a large slice thickness (1 cm), to provide image slices across the irradiated region of the gel, and a relatively small number of CT scans (63), to extrapolate the zero-scan image. The resulting set of transverse images shows reduced noise compared to images from the initial CT scan of the gel, without being degraded by the additional radiation dose delivered to the gel during the repeated scanning. The full, 3D image of the gel has a low spatial resolution in the longitudinal direction, due to the selected scan parameters. Nonetheless, important features of the dose distribution are apparent in the 3D x-ray CT scan of the gel. The results of this study demonstrate that the zero-scan extrapolation method can be applied to the reconstruction of multiple x-ray CT slices, to provide useful 2D and 3D images of irradiated dosimetry gels.

A discourse on the non-method

In spite of the activism of professional bodies and researchers, empirical evidence shows that project management still does not deliver the expected benefits and promises. Hence, many have questioned the validity of the hegemonic rationalist paradigm anchored in the Enlightenment and Natural Sciences tradition supporting project management research and practice for the last 60 years and the lack of relevance to practice of the current conceptual base of project management. In order to address these limitations many authors, taking a post-modernist stance in social sciences, build on ‘pre-modern’ philosophies such as the Aristotelian one, specially emphasizing the role of praxis (activity), and phronesis (practical wisdom, prudence). Indeed, ‘Praxis … is the central category of the philosophy which is not merely an interpretation of the world, but is also a guide to its transformation …’ (Vazquez, 1977:. 149). Therefore, praxis offers an important focus for practitioners and researchers in social sciences, one in which theory is integrated with practice at the point of intervention. Simply stated, praxis can serve as a common ground for those interested in basic and applied research by providing knowledge of the reality in which action, informed by theory, takes place. Consequently, I suggest a ‘praxeological’ style of reasoning (praxeology being defined as study or science of human actions and conduct, including praxis, practices and phronesis) and to go beyond the ‘Theory-Practice’ divide. Moreover, I argue that we need to move away from the current dichotomy between the two classes ‘scholars experts-researchers’ and ‘managers/workers-practitioners-participants’. Considering one single class of ‘PraXitioner’, becoming a phronimos, may contribute to create new perspectives and open up new ways of thinking and acting in project situations. Thus, I call for a Perestroika in researching and acting in project management situations. My intent is to suggest a balanced praxeological view of the apparent opposition between social and natural science approaches. I explore, in this chapter, three key questions, covering the ontological, epistemological and praxeological dimensions of project management in action. 1. Are the research approaches being currently used appropriate for generating contributions that matter to both theory and practice with regards to what a ‘project’ is or to what we do when we call a specific situation ‘a project’? 2. On the basis of which intellectual virtues is the knowledge generated and what is the impact for theory and practice? 3. Are the modes of action of the practitioners ‘prudent’ and are they differentiating or reconciling formal and abstract rationality from substantive rationality and situated reasoning with regards to the mode of action they adopt in particular project situations? The investigation of the above questions leads me to debate about ‘Project Management-as-Praxis’, and to suggest ‘A’ (not ‘THE’) ‘praxeological’ style of reasoning and mode of inquiry – acknowledging a non-paradigmatic, subjective and kaleidoscopic perspective – for ‘Knowing-as-Practicing’ in project management. In short, this is about making a ‘Projects Science’ that matters.

A method for predicting rain-induced instability of an individual slope

Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation. In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes. This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.