Behavioral characteristics of applied general equilibrium models with an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module

This paper explore how simulation results change with different choice of trade specification, and the strength of preference for traded variety by economic agent differs, utilizing two types of three-region, three-sector AGE model that includes the Armington-Krugman-Melitz Encompassing module based on Dixon and Rimmer (2012). Simulation experiments reveal that: (1) the Melitz-type specification does not always enhance effectiveness of a certain policy change more than the one obtained with the Krugman-type, especially when economic agents' preference for traded variety is not so strong; (2) there are likely to be points where the volumes of effects obtained with the Melitz-type exceed the ones with the Krugman-type; and (3) the preference of the producers, those who are in the sectors that exhibit increasing returns to scale, for traded variety might be the engine of explosive effects as suggested by Fujita, et al. (2000).

On the sustainability of a monocentric city : lower transport costs from new transport facilities

This paper proposes a general equilibrium model of a monocentric city based on Fujita and Krugman (1995). Two rates of transport costs per distance and for the same good are introduced. The model assumes that lower transport costs are available at a few points on a line. These lower costs represent new transport facilities, such as high-speed motorways and railways. Findings is that new transport facilities connecting the city and hinterlands strengthen the lock-in effects, which describes whether a city remains where it is forever after being created. Furthermore, the effect intensifies with better agricultural technologies and a larger population in the economy. The relationship between indirect utility and population size has an inverted U-shape, even if new transport facilities are used. However, the population size that maximizes indirect utility is smaller than that found in Fujita and Krugman (1995).

Modeling for the world crude oil and natural gas markets

Crude oil and natural gas have been essential energy sources and play a crucial role in the world economy. Changes in energy prices significantly impact economic growth. This study builds an econometric model to illustrate the substitute relation between crude oil and natural gas markets. Additionally, the determination of the oil and natural gas prices are endogenized, assuming imperfect competition to reflect a real market strategy. Our empirical results show that the overall performance of this system is acceptable, and the model can be applied to policy analysis for determining monetary or energy policy by introducing this model to the more comprehensive system.

Simulation analysis of the EU ELV/RoHS directives based on an applied general equilibrium model with Melitz-type trade specification

This paper explores the potential usefulness of an AGE model with the Melitz-type trade specification to assess economic effects of technical regulations, taking the case of the EU ELV/RoHS directives as an example. Simulation experiments reveal that: (1) raising the fixed exporting cost to make sales in the EU market brings results that exports of the targeted commodities (motor vehicles and parts for ELV and electronic equipment for RoHS) to the EU from outside regions/countries expand while the domestic trade in the EU shrinks when the importer's preference for variety (PfV) is not strong; (2) if the PfV is not strong, policy changes that may bring reduction in the number of firms enable survived producers with high productivity to expand production to be large-scale mass producers fully enjoying the fruit of economies of scale; and (3) When the strength of the importer's PfV is changed from zero to unity, there is the value that totally changes simulation results and their interpretations.

Arquitectura óptima: Cuatro medios prácticos para optimizar proyectos de arquitectura

La investigación trata de mostrar cuatro acciones habitualmente empleadas al proyectar arquitectura. La tesis narra el discurso que construyen cuatro acciones como mecanismos optimizadores, fundamentales, activos y necesarios cuando creamos nuevos proyectos. En este trabajo se estudian en profundidad cuatro acciones optimizadoras a través de numerosos casos de estudio. Se estudia también la presencia de estas acciones en otros campos creativos, como la biología, el arte, la literatura, la filosofía, la matemática o la psicología de la creatividad. Se busca qué tienen en común estas cuatro acciones y se indaga sobre la posible narración que construyen entre ellas. La mayor parte de los textos que constituyen este trabajo se escriben en un formato próximo al del ensayo, empleando tiempos verbales presentes evitando los tiempos verbales pretéritos o imperfectos para potenciar la acción a través el estilo narrativo. La investigación se ha realizado a partir de fuentes bibliográficas existentes en numerosas bibliotecas. Se han llevado a cabo estudios de campo realizados a través de entrevistas personales a interlocutores expertos, no sólo de teoría arquitectónica sino también de prácticas constructivas, así como visitas a lugares íntimamente relacionados con el tema de investigación. Se ha completado el estudio de casos con ejercicios prácticos realizados por el autor de esta tesis, para profundizar con la propia investigación por empatía con los autores estudiados. La investigación bibliográfica principal se ha desarrollado en las bibliotecas de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, de la Universidad de Alicante, de la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, de la Universidad Europea de Madrid, de la Universidad Camilo José Cela, de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, de la Columbia University, de la Harvard University, de la Delft University, de Heidelberg University, de la Biblioteca Central de Madrid y de la Regional de Murcia, así como de la del COAMU. También se ha utilizado recursos bibliográficos propios. La metodología utilizada muestra desde diferentes perspectivas el problema de las acciones optimizadoras, desde obras artísticas, pasando por ejemplos de arquitectura construida hasta ejercicios puramente intelectuales. La acumulación ha sido el método de obtención de conocimiento de esta tesis. Se han acumulado conocimientos y posteriormente se ha profundizado, reflexionando sobre los datos que se han ido obteniendo. Al profundizar se enlazan unas pruebas con otras, hilando y ensamblándolas en un discurso que hace continuo y coherente la aparición de cada caso estudiado. Estas entidades probatorias son acciones que han sido aplicadas frecuentemente por distintas generaciones de autores que proyectan utilizando alguna de estas cuatro acciones. Partimos de una extensa bibliografía general y de otra específica. A través de citas e imágenes se muestra el repertorio de objetos y textos estudiados. Los casos de estudio seleccionados exponen los efectos que produce cada acción en el ejercicio del proyectar. Se ha estudiado la necesidad de cada acción en todas y cada una de las partes del ciclo creativo del proyecto, tanto en prácticas imaginadas como en construidas, de los autores que proyectan. Se citan y se interpretan las descripciones de biólogos, sociólogos, antropólogos, psicólogos, escritores, artistas, arquitectos, matemáticos, ingenieros, físicos, médicos y filósofos en los cuales estas acciones se encuentran conscientemente incorporadas en su procedimiento de proyectar y de pensar. Por último, hemos obtenido unos resultados adecuados a la metodología empleada y a los objetivos planteados gracias a la acumulación y clasificación de pruebas. Los resultados se exponen a modo de discursos conclusivos con un intencionado carácter abierto que despliega nuevas posibles nuevas vías de investigación entorno a los temas estudiados. ABSTRACT. The research seeks to show four commonly used actions in designing architecture. Thesis recounts the speech that built four actions like optimizer, fundamental, active and necessary mechanisms when we create new projects. In this work it studies in depth four optimizer actions through numerous case studies. Also, it considers the presence of these actions in other creative fields, such as biology, art, literature, philosophy, mathematics or psychology of creativity. It is intended what these four actions have in common and it explores the possible narrative constructed among them. Most of the texts that constitute this work are written in a format close to the essay, using present tenses avoiding past or imperfect tenses of enhancing the action through the narrative style. Research has been done from literature sources available in numerous libraries. Field studies have been carried out through personal interviews with expert speakers, not just of architectonic theory but also from constructive practices, as well as visits to sites closely related to the research topic. case studies with practical exercises conducted by the author of this thesis has been completed, to deepen with the own research by empathy with the studied authors. Main bibliographical investigation has been developed in the libraries of UPM, UA, UAM, UEM, the CJC, the UCM, Columbia University, Harvard University Delft University, Heidelberg University, Madrid Central Library, Regional Murcia Library and COAMU Library. Also it has been used own bibliographical resources. Methodology shows from different perspectives the problem of optimizers actions, from art, passing through examples of architecture built up to puré intellectual exercise. Accumulation has been the method of obtaining knowledge of this thesis. it has been accumulated knowledge and later it has been deepened, reflecting on the data that have been obtained. By deepening tests are linked with other, spinning and locking into a discourse that makes continuous and consistent the development of each case study. These evidentiary entities are actions that have been frequently applied by different generations of authors who project using some of these four stocks. We leave from an extensive general bibliography and another specific one. Through quotes and pictures it shows the repertoire of objects and texts studied. The selected study cases set out the effects that each action produces in the exercise of projecting. It has studied the need of each action in every parts of creative cycle of the project, both imagined as constructed practices, by the authors who project. It is quoted and interpreted the descriptions of biologists, sociologists, anthropologists, psychologists, writers, artists, architects, mathematicians, engineers, physicists, physicians and philosophers in which these actions are consciously incorporated into his projecting and thinking procedure. Finally, we have obtained adequate results to the used methodology and to the stated objectives through the accumulation and classification of evidence. The results are presented as conclusive speeches with an intentional open character that unfolds new possible research routes around the studied topics.

Influence of the epoxy/amine stoichiometry on the thermomechanical properties of nanocomposites based on high Tg epoxy and organophilic clays.

In layered silicate-epoxy nanocomposites organic modification of the silicates makes them compatible with the epoxy which intercalates into the clay galleries. The effect of clay dispersion on epoxies of high Tg is not clear. Decreases of the epoxy Tg have been frequently reported. The presence of clay may cause stoichiometry imbalances that conduces to the formation of imperfect networks

Hydrologic models for emergency decision support using Bayesian networks

In the presence of a river flood, operators in charge of control must take decisions based on imperfect and incomplete sources of information (e.g., data provided by a limited number sensors) and partial knowledge about the structure and behavior of the river basin. This is a case of reasoning about a complex dynamic system with uncertainty and real-time constraints where bayesian networks can be used to provide an effective support. In this paper we describe a solution with spatio-temporal bayesian networks to be used in a context of emergencies produced by river floods. In the paper we describe first a set of types of causal relations for hydrologic processes with spatial and temporal references to represent the dynamics of the river basin. Then we describe how this was included in a computer system called SAIDA to provide assistance to operators in charge of control in a river basin. Finally the paper shows experimental results about the performance of the model.

Contradictio in terminis: dialéctica de la ambigüedad en la arquitectura contemporánea

The twentieth century brought a new sensibility characterized by the discredit of cartesian rationality and the weakening of universal truths, related with aesthetic values as order, proportion and harmony. In the middle of the century, theorists such as Theodor Adorno, Rudolf Arnheim and Anton Ehrenzweig warned about the transformation developed by the artistic field. Contemporary aesthetics seemed to have a new goal: to deny the idea of art as an organized, finished and coherent structure. The order had lost its privileged position. Disorder, probability, arbitrariness, accidentality, randomness, chaos, fragmentation, indeterminacy... Gradually new terms were coined by aesthetic criticism to explain what had been happening since the beginning of the century. The first essays on the matter sought to provide new interpretative models based on, among other arguments, the phenomenology of perception, the recent discoveries of quantum mechanics, the deeper layers of the psyche or the information theories. Overall, were worthy attempts to give theoretical content to a situation as obvious as devoid of founding charter. Finally, in 1962, Umberto Eco brought together all this efforts by proposing a single theoretical frame in his book Opera Aperta. According to his point of view, all of the aesthetic production of twentieth century had a characteristic in common: its capacity to express multiplicity. For this reason, he considered that the nature of contemporary art was, above all, ambiguous. The aim of this research is to clarify the consequences of the incorporation of ambiguity in architectural theoretical discourse. We should start making an accurate analysis of this concept. However, this task is quite difficult because ambiguity does not allow itself to be clearly defined. This concept has the disadvantage that its signifier is as imprecise as its signified. In addition, the negative connotations that ambiguity still has outside the aesthetic field, stigmatizes this term and makes its use problematic. Another problem of ambiguity is that the contemporary subject is able to locate it in all situations. This means that in addition to distinguish ambiguity in contemporary productions, so does in works belonging to remote ages and styles. For that reason, it could be said that everything is ambiguous. And that’s correct, because somehow ambiguity is present in any creation of the imperfect human being. However, as Eco, Arnheim and Ehrenzweig pointed out, there are two major differences between current and past contexts. One affects the subject and the other the object. First, it’s the contemporary subject, and no other, who has acquired the ability to value and assimilate ambiguity. Secondly, ambiguity was an unexpected aesthetic result in former periods, while in contemporary object it has been codified and is deliberately present. In any case, as Eco did, we consider appropriate the use of the term ambiguity to refer to the contemporary aesthetic field. Any other term with more specific meaning would only show partial and limited aspects of a situation quite complex and difficult to diagnose. Opposed to what normally might be expected, in this case ambiguity is the term that fits better due to its particular lack of specificity. In fact, this lack of specificity is what allows to assign a dynamic condition to the idea of ambiguity that in other terms would hardly be operative. Thus, instead of trying to define the idea of ambiguity, we will analyze how it has evolved and its consequences in architectural discipline. Instead of trying to define what it is, we will examine what its presence has supposed in each moment. We will deal with ambiguity as a constant presence that has always been latent in architectural production but whose nature has been modified over time. Eco, in the mid-twentieth century, discerned between classical ambiguity and contemporary ambiguity. Currently, half a century later, the challenge is to discern whether the idea of ambiguity has remained unchanged or have suffered a new transformation. What this research will demonstrate is that it’s possible to detect a new transformation that has much to do with the cultural and aesthetic context of last decades: the transition from modernism to postmodernism. This assumption leads us to establish two different levels of contemporary ambiguity: each one related to one these periods. The first level of ambiguity is widely well-known since many years. Its main characteristics are a codified multiplicity, an interpretative freedom and an active subject who gives conclusion to an object that is incomplete or indefinite. This level of ambiguity is related to the idea of indeterminacy, concept successfully introduced into contemporary aesthetic language. The second level of ambiguity has been almost unnoticed for architectural criticism, although it has been identified and studied in other theoretical disciplines. Much of the work of Fredric Jameson and François Lyotard shows reasonable evidences that the aesthetic production of postmodernism has transcended modern ambiguity to reach a new level in which, despite of the existence of multiplicity, the interpretative freedom and the active subject have been questioned, and at last denied. In this period ambiguity seems to have reached a new level in which it’s no longer possible to obtain a conclusive and complete interpretation of the object because it has became an unreadable device. The postmodern production offers a kind of inaccessible multiplicity and its nature is deeply contradictory. This hypothetical transformation of the idea of ambiguity has an outstanding analogy with that shown in the poetic analysis made by William Empson, published in 1936 in his Seven Types of Ambiguity. Empson established different levels of ambiguity and classified them according to their poetic effect. This layout had an ascendant logic towards incoherence. In seventh level, where ambiguity is higher, he located the contradiction between irreconcilable opposites. It could be said that contradiction, once it undermines the coherence of the object, was the better way that contemporary aesthetics found to confirm the Hegelian judgment, according to which art would ultimately reject its capacity to express truth. Much of the transformation of architecture throughout last century is related to the active involvement of ambiguity in its theoretical discourse. In modern architecture ambiguity is present afterwards, in its critical review made by theoreticians like Colin Rowe, Manfredo Tafuri and Bruno Zevi. The publication of several studies about Mannerism in the forties and fifties rescued certain virtues of an historical style that had been undervalued due to its deviation from Renacentist canon. Rowe, Tafuri and Zevi, among others, pointed out the similarities between Mannerism and certain qualities of modern architecture, both devoted to break previous dogmas. The recovery of Mannerism allowed joining ambiguity and modernity for first time in the same sentence. In postmodernism, on the other hand, ambiguity is present ex-professo, developing a prominent role in the theoretical discourse of this period. The distance between its analytical identification and its operational use quickly disappeared because of structuralism, an analytical methodology with the aspiration of becoming a modus operandi. Under its influence, architecture began to be identified and studied as a language. Thus, postmodern theoretical project discerned between the components of architectural language and developed them separately. Consequently, there is not only one, but three projects related to postmodern contradiction: semantic project, syntactic project and pragmatic project. Leading these projects are those prominent architects whose work manifested an especial interest in exploring and developing the potential of the use of contradiction in architecture. Thus, Robert Venturi, Peter Eisenman and Rem Koolhaas were who established the main features through which architecture developed the dialectics of ambiguity, in its last and extreme level, as a theoretical project in each component of architectural language. Robert Venturi developed a new interpretation of architecture based on its semantic component, Peter Eisenman did the same with its syntactic component, and also did Rem Koolhaas with its pragmatic component. With this approach this research aims to establish a new reflection on the architectural transformation from modernity to postmodernity. Also, it can serve to light certain aspects still unaware that have shaped the architectural heritage of past decades, consequence of a fruitful relationship between architecture and ambiguity and its provocative consummation in a contradictio in terminis. Esta investigación centra su atención fundamentalmente sobre las repercusiones de la incorporación de la ambigüedad en forma de contradicción en el discurso arquitectónico postmoderno, a través de cada uno de sus tres proyectos teóricos. Está estructurada, por tanto, en torno a un capítulo principal titulado Dialéctica de la ambigüedad como proyecto teórico postmoderno, que se desglosa en tres, de títulos: Proyecto semántico. Robert Venturi; Proyecto sintáctico. Peter Eisenman; y Proyecto pragmático. Rem Koolhaas. El capítulo central se complementa con otros dos situados al inicio. El primero, titulado Dialéctica de la ambigüedad contemporánea. Una aproximación realiza un análisis cronológico de la evolución que ha experimentado la idea de la ambigüedad en la teoría estética del siglo XX, sin entrar aún en cuestiones arquitectónicas. El segundo, titulado Dialéctica de la ambigüedad como crítica del proyecto moderno se ocupa de examinar la paulatina incorporación de la ambigüedad en la revisión crítica de la modernidad, que sería de vital importancia para posibilitar su posterior introducción operativa en la postmodernidad. Un último capítulo, situado al final del texto, propone una serie de Proyecciones que, a tenor de lo analizado en los capítulos anteriores, tratan de establecer una relectura del contexto arquitectónico actual y su evolución posible, considerando, en todo momento, que la reflexión en torno a la ambigüedad todavía hoy permite vislumbrar nuevos horizontes discursivos. Cada doble página de la Tesis sintetiza la estructura tripartita del capítulo central y, a grandes rasgos, la principal herramienta metodológica utilizada en la investigación. De este modo, la triple vertiente semántica, sintáctica y pragmática con que se ha identificado al proyecto teórico postmoderno se reproduce aquí en una distribución específica de imágenes, notas a pie de página y cuerpo principal del texto. En la columna de la izquierda están colocadas las imágenes que acompañan al texto principal. Su distribución atiende a criterios estéticos y compositivos, cualificando, en la medida de lo posible, su condición semántica. A continuación, a su derecha, están colocadas las notas a pie de página. Su disposición es en columna y cada nota está colocada a la misma altura que su correspondiente llamada en el texto principal. Su distribución reglada, su valor como notación y su posible equiparación con una estructura profunda aluden a su condición sintáctica. Finalmente, el cuerpo principal del texto ocupa por completo la mitad derecha de cada doble página. Concebido como un relato continuo, sin apenas interrupciones, su papel como responsable de satisfacer las demandas discursivas que plantea una investigación doctoral está en correspondencia con su condición pragmática.

Estrategias innovadoras para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas ganaderos extensivos

La vulnerabilidad de los sistemas ganaderos de pastoreo pone en evidencia la necesidad de herramientas para evaluar y mitigar los efectos de la sequía. El avance en la teledetección ha despertado el interés por explotar potenciales aplicaciones, y está dando lugar a un intenso desarrollo de innovaciones en distintos campos. Una de estas áreas es la gestión del riesgo climático, en donde la utilización de índices de vegetación permite la evaluación de la sequía. En esta investigación, se analiza el impacto de la sequía y se evalúa el potencial de nuevas tecnologías como la teledetección para la gestión del riesgo de sequía en sistemas de ganadería extensiva. Para ello, se desarrollan tres aplicaciones: (i) evaluar el impacto económico de la sequía en una explotación ganadera extensiva de la dehesa de Andalucía, (ii) elaborar mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequía en pastos de Chile y (iii) diseñar y evaluar el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. En la primera aplicación, se diseña un modelo dinámico y estocástico que integra aspectos climáticos, ecológicos, agronómicos y socioeconómicos para evaluar el riesgo de sequía. El modelo simula una explotación ganadera tipo de la dehesa de Andalucía para el período 1999-2010. El método de Análisis Histórico y la simulación de MonteCarlo se utilizan para identificar los principales factores de riesgo de la explotación, entre los que destacan, los periodos de inicios del verano e inicios de invierno. Los resultados muestran la existencia de un desfase temporal entre el riesgo climático y riesgo económico, teniendo este último un periodo de duración más extenso en el tiempo. También, revelan que la intensidad, frecuencia y duración son tres atributos cruciales que determinan el impacto económico de la sequía. La estrategia de reducción de la carga ganadera permite aminorar el riesgo, pero conlleva una disminución en el margen bruto de la explotación. La segunda aplicación está dedicada a la elaboración de mapas de vulnerabilidad a la sequia en pastos de Chile. Para ello, se propone y desarrolla un índice de riesgo económico (IRESP) sencillo de interpretar y replicable, que integra factores de riesgo y estrategias de adaptación para obtener una medida del Valor en Riesgo, es decir, la máxima pérdida esperada en un año con un nivel de significación del 5%.La representación espacial del IRESP pone en evidencia patrones espaciales y diferencias significativas en la vulnerabilidad a la sequía a lo largo de Chile. Además, refleja que la vulnerabilidad no siempre esta correlacionada con el riesgo climático y demuestra la importancia de considerar las estrategias de adaptación. Las medidas de autocorrelación espacial revelan que el riesgo sistémico es considerablemente mayor en el sur que en el resto de zonas. Los resultados demuestran que el IRESP transmite información pertinente y, que los mapas de vulnerabilidad pueden ser una herramienta útil en el diseño de políticas y toma de decisiones para la gestión del riesgo de sequía. La tercera aplicación evalúa el potencial de un seguro indexado para sequía en pastos en la región de Coquimbo en Chile. Para lo cual, se desarrolla un modelo estocástico para estimar la prima actuarialmente justa del seguro y se proponen y evalúan pautas alternativas para mejorar el diseño del contrato. Se aborda el riesgo base, el principal problema de los seguros indexados identificado en la literatura y, que está referido a la correlación imperfecta del índice con las pérdidas de la explotación. Para ello, se sigue un enfoque bayesiano que permite evaluar el impacto en el riesgo base de las pautas de diseño propuestas: i) una zonificación por clúster que considera aspectos espacio-temporales, ii) un período de garantía acotado a los ciclos fenológicos del pasto y iii) umbral de garantía. Los resultados muestran que tanto la zonificación como el periodo de garantía reducen el riesgo base considerablemente. Sin embargo, el umbral de garantía tiene un efecto ambiguo sobre el riesgo base. Por otra parte, la zonificación por clúster contribuye a aminorar el riesgo sistémico que enfrentan las aseguradoras. Estos resultados han puesto de manifiesto que un buen diseño de contrato puede tener un doble dividendo, por un lado aumentar su utilidad y, por otro, reducir el coste del seguro. Un diseño de contrato eficiente junto con los avances en la teledetección y un adecuado marco institucional son los pilares básicos para el buen funcionamiento de un programa de seguro. Las nuevas tecnologías ofrecen un importante potencial para la innovación en la gestión del riesgo climático. Los avances en este campo pueden proporcionar importantes beneficios sociales en los países en desarrollo y regiones vulnerables, donde las herramientas para gestionar eficazmente los riesgos sistémicos como la sequía pueden ser de gran ayuda para el desarrollo. The vulnerability of grazing livestock systems highlights the need for tools to assess and mitigate the adverse impact of drought. The recent and rapid progress in remote sensing has awakened an interest for tapping into potential applications, triggering intensive efforts to develop innovations in a number of spheres. One of these areas is climate risk management, where the use of vegetation indices facilitates assessment of drought. This research analyzes drought impacts and evaluates the potential of new technologies such as remote sensing to manage drought risk in extensive livestock systems. Three essays in drought risk management are developed to: (i) assess the economic impact of drought on a livestock farm in the Andalusian Dehesa, (ii) build drought vulnerability maps in Chilean grazing lands, and (iii) design and evaluate the potential of an index insurance policy to address the risk of drought in grazing lands in Coquimbo, Chile. In the first essay, a dynamic and stochastic farm model is designed combining climate, agronomic, socio-economic and ecological aspects to assess drought risk. The model is developed to simulate a representative livestock farm in the Dehesa of Andalusia for the time period 1999-2010. Burn analysis and MonteCarlo simulation methods are used to identify the significance of various risk sources at the farm. Most notably, early summer and early winter are identified as periods of peak risk. Moreover, there is a significant time lag between climate and economic risk and this later last longer than the former. It is shown that intensity, frequency and duration of the drought are three crucial attributes that shape the economic impact of drought. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the sustainability of farm management strategies and demonstrates that lowering the stocking rate reduces farmer exposure to drought risk but entails a reduction in the expected gross margin. The second essay, mapping drought vulnerability in Chilean grazing lands, proposes and builds an index of economic risk (IRESP) that is replicable and simple to interpret. This methodology integrates risk factors and adaptation strategies to deliver information on Value at Risk, maximum expected losses at 5% significance level. Mapping IRESP provides evidence about spatial patterns and significant differences in drought vulnerability across Chilean grazing lands. Spatial autocorrelation measures reveal that systemic risk is considerably larger in the South as compared to Northern or Central Regions. Furthermore, it is shown that vulnerability is not necessarily correlated with climate risk and that adaptation strategies do matter. These results show that IRESP conveys relevant information and that vulnerability maps may be useful tools to assess policy design and decision-making in drought risk management. The third essay develops a stochastic model to estimate the actuarially fair premium and evaluates the potential of an indexed insurance policy to manage drought risk in Coquimbo, a relevant livestock farming region of Chile. Basis risk refers to the imperfect correlation of the index and farmer loses and is identified in the literature as a main limitation of index insurance. A Bayesian approach is proposed to assess the impact on basis risk of alternative guidelines in contract design: i) A cluster zoning that considers space-time aspects, ii) A guarantee period bounded to fit phenological cycles, and iii) the triggering index threshold. Results show that both the proposed zoning and guarantee period considerably reduces basis risk. However, the triggering index threshold has an ambiguous effect on basis risk. On the other hand, cluster zoning contributes to ameliorate systemic risk faced by the insurer. These results highlighted that adequate contract design is important and may result in double dividend. On the one hand, increasing farmers’ utility and, secondly, reducing the cost of insurance. An efficient contract design coupled with advances in remote sensing and an appropriate institutional framework are the basis for an efficient operation of an insurance program. The new technologies offer significant potential for innovation in climate risk managements. Progress in this field is capturing increasing attention and may provide important social gains in developing countries and vulnerable regions where the tools to efficiently manage systemic risks, such as drought, may be a means to foster development.

Multiservice capacity and interference statistics of the uplink of high altitude platforms (HAPs) for asynchronous and synchronous WCDMA system

In this work, the capacity and the interference statistics of the uplink of high-altitude platforms (HAPs) for asynchronous and synchronous WCDMA system assuming finite transmission power and imperfect power control are studied. Propagation loss used to calculate the received signal power is due to the distance, shadowing, and wall insertion loss. The uplink capacity for 3- and 3.75-G services is given for different cell radius assuming outdoor and indoor voice users only, data users only and a combination of the two services. For 37 macrocells HAP, the total uplink capacity is 3,034 outdoor voice users or 444 outdoor data users. When one or more than one user is an indoor user, the uplink capacity is 2,923 voice users or 444 data users when the walls entry loss is 10 dB. It is shown that the effect of the adjacent channels interference is very small.

Worldwide standardization activity for quantum key distribution

We discuss the on-going worldwide activity to develop forward looking standards for quantum key distribution (QKD) in the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) QKD industry specification group (ISG). The long term goal is to develop a certification methodology that bridges the gap between theoretical proofs and practical implementations with imperfect devices. Current efforts are focused on the handling of side channels and characterization of the most relevant components.

Proteinase inhibitor-inducing activity of the prohormone prosystemin resides exclusively in the C-terminal systemin domain

Prosystemin is the 200-amino acid precursor of the 18-amino acid polypeptide defense hormone, systemin. Herein, we report that prosystemin was found to be as biologically active as systemin when assayed for proteinase inhibitor induction in young tomato plants and nearly as active in the alkalinization response in Lycopersicon esculentum suspension-cultured cells. Similar to many animal prohormones that harbor multiple signals, the systemin precursor contains five imperfect repetitive domains N-terminal to a single systemin domain. Whether the five repetitive domains contain defense signals has not been established. N-terminal deletions of prosystemin had little effect on its activity in tomato plants or suspension-cultured cells. Deletion of the C-terminal region of prosystemin containing the 18-amino acid systemin domain completely abolished its proteinase inhibitor induction and alkalinization activities. The apoplastic fluid from tomato leaves and the medium of cultured cells were analyzed for proteolytic activity that could process prosystemin to systemin. These experiments showed that proteolytic enzymes present in the apoplasm and medium could cleave prosystemin into large fragments, but the enzymes did not produce detectable levels of systemin. Additionally, inhibitors of these proteolytic enzymes did not affect the biological activity of prosystemin. The cumulative data indicated that prosystemin and/or large fragments of prosystemin can be active inducers of defense responses in both tomato leaves and suspension-cultured cells and that the only region of prosystemin that is responsible for activating the defense response resides in the systemin domain.

The cluA− mutant of Dictyostelium identifies a novel class of proteins required for dispersion of mitochondria

The cluA gene of Dictyostelium discoideum encodes a novel 150-kDa protein. Disruption of cluA results in clustering of mitochondria near the cell center. This is a striking difference from normal cells, whose mitochondria are dispersed uniformly throughout the cytoplasm. The mutant cell populations also exhibit an increased frequency of multinucleated cells, suggesting an impairment in cytokinesis. Both phenotypes are reversed by transformation of cluA− cells with a plasmid carrying a constitutively expressed cluA gene. The predicted sequence of the cluA gene product is homologous to sequences encoded by open reading frames in the genomes of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Caenorhabditis elegans, but not to any known protein. The only exception is a short region with some homology to the 42-residue imperfect repeats present in the kinesin light chain, which probably function in protein–protein interaction. These studies identify a new class of proteins that appear to be required for the proper distribution of mitochondria.

Synpolydactyly phenotypes correlate with size of expansions in HOXD13 polyalanine tract

Synpolydactyly (SPD) is a dominantly inherited congenital limb malformation. Typical cases have 3/4 finger and 4/5 toe syndactyly, with a duplicated digit in the syndactylous web, but incomplete penetrance and variable expressivity are common. The condition has recently been shown to be caused by expansions of an imperfect trinucleotide repeat sequence encoding a 15-residue polyalanine tract in HOXD13. We have studied 16 new and 4 previously published SPD families, with between 7 and 14 extra residues in the tract, to analyze the molecular basis for the observed variation in phenotype. Although there is no evidence of change in expansion size within families, even over six generations, there is a highly significant increase in the penetrance and severity of phenotype with increasing expansion size, affecting both hands (P = 0.012) and feet (P < 0.00005). Affected individuals from a family with a 14-alanine expansion, the largest so far reported, all have a strikingly similar and unusually severe limb phenotype, involving the first digits and distal carpals. Affected males from this family also have hypospadias, not previously described in SPD, but consistent with HOXD13 expression in the developing genital tubercle. The remarkable correlation between phenotype and expansion size suggests that expansion of the tract leads to a specific gain of function in the mutant HOXD13 protein, and has interesting implications for the role of polyalanine tracts in the control of transcription.

From residue matching patterns to protein folding topographies: General model and bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor

A coarse-grained model for protein-folding dynamics is introduced based on a discretized representation of torsional modes. The model, based on the Ramachandran map of the local torsional potential surface and the class (hydrophobic/polar/neutral) of each residue, recognizes patterns of both torsional conformations and hydrophobic-polar contacts, with tolerance for imperfect patterns. It incorporates empirical rates for formation of secondary and tertiary structure. The method yields a topological representation of the evolving local torsional configuration of the folding protein, modulo the basins of the Ramachandran map. The folding process is modeled as a sequence of transitions from one contact pattern to another, as the torsional patterns evolve. We test the model by applying it to the folding process of bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor, obtaining a kinetic description of the transitions between the contact patterns visited by the protein along the dominant folding pathway. The kinetics and detailed balance make it possible to invert the result to obtain a coarse topographic description of the potential energy surface along the dominant folding pathway, in effect to go backward or forward between a topological representation of the chain conformation and a topographical description of the potential energy surface governing the folding process. As a result, the strong structure-seeking character of bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor and the principal features of its folding pathway are reproduced in a reasonably quantitative way.