Detailed assessment of the deep-seated gravitational deformation at Stampa above Flåm, Norway

The unstable rock slope above the village of Flåm shows signs of active and postglacial gravitational deformation over an area of 11 km2. We performed detailed structural field mapping, annual differential Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) surveys, and generated a detailed topographic model based on airborne and terrestrial laser scanning. Kinematic analyses of the structural data indicates that deformation is complex and varies over the slope. Both sliding and toppling are locally feasible. Using differential GNSS, 18 points were measured annually over a period of up to 6 years. Two of these points show an average yearly movement of around 10 mm/year. They are located at the frontal cliff on almost completely detached blocks. Large fractures indicate deep-seated gravitational deformation of volumes up to 80 million m3, but the movement rates in these areas are below 2 mm/year. Based upon these combined observations, we interpret that small collapses of blocks along the frontal cliff will be more frequent. Larger collapses of free-standing blocks along the cliff with volumes >100,000 m3, thus large enough to reach the fjord, cannot be ruled out. A large collapse involving more than 10 million m3, however, is of very low likelihood at present.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

The cost-effectiveness and public health benefit of nalmefene added to psychosocial support for the reduction of alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels: a Markov model.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. DESIGN: Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. SETTING: The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. DATA SOURCES: We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. RESULTS: Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20,000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100,000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Nalmefene can be seen as a cost-effective treatment for alcohol dependence, with substantial public health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was developed based on data from three randomised clinical trials: ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941).

Effectiveness of a nurse-led case management home care model in Primary Health Care. A quasi-experimental, controlled, multi-centre study

Background Demand for home care services has increased considerably, along with the growing complexity of cases and variability among resources and providers. Designing services that guarantee co-ordination and integration for providers and levels of care is of paramount importance. The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of a new case-management based, home care delivery model which has been implemented in Andalusia (Spain). Methods Quasi-experimental, controlled, non-randomised, multi-centre study on the population receiving home care services comparing the outcomes of the new model, which included nurse-led case management, versus the conventional one. Primary endpoints: functional status, satisfaction and use of healthcare resources. Secondary endpoints: recruitment and caregiver burden, mortality, institutionalisation, quality of life and family function. Analyses were performed at base-line, and at two, six and twelve months. A bivariate analysis was conducted with the Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney's U, and the chi squared test. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests were performed to compare survival and institutionalisation. A multivariate analysis was performed to pinpoint factors that impact on improvement of functional ability. Results Base-line differences in functional capacity – significantly lower in the intervention group (RR: 1.52 95%CI: 1.05–2.21; p = 0.0016) – disappeared at six months (RR: 1.31 95%CI: 0.87–1.98; p = 0.178). At six months, caregiver burden showed a slight reduction in the intervention group, whereas it increased notably in the control group (base-line Zarit Test: 57.06 95%CI: 54.77–59.34 vs. 60.50 95%CI: 53.63–67.37; p = 0.264), (Zarit Test at six months: 53.79 95%CI: 49.67–57.92 vs. 66.26 95%CI: 60.66–71.86 p = 0.002). Patients in the intervention group received more physiotherapy (7.92 CI95%: 5.22–10.62 vs. 3.24 95%CI: 1.37–5.310; p = 0.0001) and, on average, required fewer home care visits (9.40 95%CI: 7.89–10.92 vs.11.30 95%CI: 9.10–14.54). No differences were found in terms of frequency of visits to A&E or hospital re-admissions. Furthermore, patients in the control group perceived higher levels of satisfaction (16.88; 95%CI: 16.32–17.43; range: 0–21, vs. 14.65 95%CI: 13.61–15.68; p = 0,001). Conclusion A home care service model that includes nurse-led case management streamlines access to healthcare services and resources, while impacting positively on patients' functional ability and caregiver burden, with increased levels of satisfaction.

A multilevel approach to understanding circadian rhythmicity : social and sleep-dependent effects in ants and mice

Résumé françaisLa majorité des organismes vivants sont soumis à l'alternance du jour et de la nuit, conséquence de la rotation de la terre autour de son axe. Ils ont développé un système interne de mesure du temps, appelé horloge circadienne, leur permettant de s'adapter et de synchroniser leur comportement et leur physiologie aux cycles de lumière. Cette dernière est considérée comme étant le signal majeur entraînant l'horloge interne et. par conséquent, les rythmes journaliers d'éveil et de sommeil. Outre sa régulation circadienne, le sommeil est contrôlé par un processus homéostatique qui détermine son besoin. La contribution de ces deux processus dans le fonctionnement cellulaire du cerveau n'a pas encore été investiguée. La mesure de l'amplitude ainsi que de la prévalence des ondes delta de l'EEG (activité delta) constitue un index très fiable du besoin de sommeil. Il a été démontré que cette activité est génétiquement déterminée et associée à un locus de trait quantitatif situé sur le chromosome 13 de la souris.Grâce à des expériences de privation de sommeil et d'analyses de transcriptome du cerveau dans trois souches de souris présentant diverses réponses à la privation de sommeil, nous avons trouvé que Homerla, localisé dans la région d'intérêt du chromosome 13, est le meilleur marqueur du besoin de sommeil. Homerla est impliqué dans la récupération de l'hyperactivité neuronale induite par le glutamate, grâce à son effet tampon sur le calcium intracellulaire. Une fonction fondamentale du sommeil pourrait donc être de protéger le cerveau et de lui permettre de récupérer après une hyperactivité neuronale imposée par une veille prolongée.De plus, nous avons montré que 2032 transcrits sont exprimés rythmiqueraent dans le cerveau de la souris, parmi lesquels seulement 391 le restent après que les animaux aient été privés de sommeil à différents moments au cours des 24 heures. Cette observation montre clairement que la plupart des changements rythmiques au niveau du transcriptome dépendent du sommeil et non de l'horloge circadienne et souligne ainsi l'importance du sommeil dans la physiologie des mammifères.La plupart des expériences concernant les rythmes circadiens ont été réalisées sur des individus isolés en négligeant l'effet du contexte social sur les comportements circadiens. Les espèces sociales, telles que les fourmis, se caractérisent par une division du travail où une répartition des tâches s'effectue entre ses membres. De plus, certaines d'entre elles doivent être pratiquées en continu comme les soins au couvain tandis que d'autres requièrent une activité rythmique comme le fourragement. Ainsi la fourmi est un excellent modèle pour l'étude de 1 influence du contexte social sur les rythmes circadiens.A ces fins, nous avons décidé d'étudier les rythmes circadiens chez une espèce de fourmi Camponotus fellah et de caractériser au niveau moléculaire son horloge circadienne. Nous avons ainsi développé un système vidéo permettant de suivre l'activité locomotrice de tous les individus d'une colonie. Nos résultats montrent que, bien que la plupart des fourmis soient arythmiques à l'intérieur de la colonie, elles développent d'amples rythmes d'activité en isolation. De plus, ces rythmes disparaissent presque aussitôt que la fourmi est réintroduite dans la colonie. Cette rythmicité observée en isolation semble être générée par l'horloge circadienne car elle persiste en condition constante (obscurité totale). Nous avons ensuite regardé si cette apparente arythmie observée dans la colonie résultait d'un effet masquant des interactions sociales sur les rythmes circadiens d'activité. Nos résultats suggèrent que l'horloge interne est fonctionnelle dans la colonie mais que l'expression de ses rythmes au niveau comportemental est inhibée par les interactions sociales. Les analyses moléculaires du statut de l'horloge dans différents contextes sociaux sont actuellement en cours. Le contexte social semble donc un déterminant majeur du comportement circadien chez la fourmi.AbstractAlmost all living organisms on earth are subjected to the alternance of day and night re-sulting from the rotation of the earth around its axis. They have evolved with an internal timing system, termed the circadian clock, enabling them to adapt and synchronize their behavior and physiology to the daily changes in light and related environmental parame¬ters. Light is thought to be the major cue entraining the circadian clock and consequently the rhythms of rest/activity. In addition to its circadian dependent timing, sleep is reg¬ulated by a homeostatic process that determines its need. The contribution of these two processes in the cellular functioning of the brain has not yet been considered. A highly reliable index of the homeostatic process of sleep is the measure of the amplitude and prevalence of the EEG delta waves (delta activity). It has been shown that sleep need, measured by delta activity, is genetically determined and associated with a Quantitative Trait Locus (QTL) located on the mouse chromosome 13. By using sleep deprivation and brain transcriptome profiling in three inbred mouse strains showing different responses to sleep loss, we found that Homerla, localized within this QTL region is the best transcrip¬tional marker of sleep need. Interestingly Homerla is primarily involved in the recovery from glutamate-induced neuronal hyperactivity by its buffering effect on intracellular cal¬cium. A fundamental function of sleep may therefore reside in the protection and recovery of the brain from a neuronal hyperactivity imposed by prolonged wakefulness.Moreover, time course gene expression experiments showed that 2032 brain tran¬scripts present a rhythmic variation, but only 391 of those remain rhythmic when mice are sleep deprived at four time points around the clock. This finding clearly suggests that most changes in gene transcription over the day are sleep-wake dependent rather than clock dependent and underlines the importance of sleep in mammalian physiology.In the second part of this PhD, I was interested in the social influence on circadian behavior. Most experiments done in the circadian field have been performed on isolated individuals and have therefore ignored the effect of the social context on circadian behav-ior. Eusocial insect species such as ants are characterized by a division of labor: colony tasks are distributed among individuals, some of them requiring continuous activity such as nursing or rhythmic ones such as foraging. Thus ants represent a suitable model to study the influence of the social context on the circadian clock and its output rhythms.The aim of this part was to address the effect of social context on circadian rhythms in the ant species Camponotus fellah and to characterize its circadian clock at the molecu¬lar level. We therefore developed a video tracking system to follow the locomotor activity of all individuals in a colony. Our results show that most ants are arrhythmic within the colony, but develop, when subjected to social isolation, strong rhythms of activity that intriguingly disappear when individuals are reintroduced into the colony. The rhythmicity observed in isolated ants seems to be driven by the circadian clock as it persists under constant conditions (complete darkness). We then tested whether the apparent arrhyth- micity in the colony stemmed from a masking effect of social interactions on circadian rhythms. Indeed, we found that circadian clocks of ants in the colony are functional but their expression at the behavioral level is inhibited by social interactions. The molecular assessment of the circadian clock functional state in the different social context is still under investigation. Our results suggest that social context is a major determinant of circadian behavior in ants.

Assessment of Severe Apnoea through Voice Analysis, Automatic Speech, and Speaker Recognition Techniques

This study is part of an ongoing collaborative effort between the medical and the signal processing communities to promote research on applying standard Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) techniques for the automatic diagnosis of patients with severe obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA). Early detection of severe apnoea cases is important so that patients can receive early treatment. Effective ASR-based detection could dramatically cut medical testing time. Working with a carefully designed speech database of healthy and apnoea subjects, we describe an acoustic search for distinctive apnoea voice characteristics. We also study abnormal nasalization in OSA patients by modelling vowels in nasal and nonnasal phonetic contexts using Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) pattern recognition on speech spectra. Finally, we present experimental findings regarding the discriminative power of GMMs applied to severe apnoea detection. We have achieved an 81% correct classification rate, which is very promising and underpins the interest in this line of inquiry.

Simultaneous EEG-fMRI at ultra-high field: Artifact prevention and safety assessment.

The simultaneous recording of scalp electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can provide unique insights into the dynamics of human brain function, and the increased functional sensitivity offered by ultra-high field fMRI opens exciting perspectives for the future of this multimodal approach. However, simultaneous recordings are susceptible to various types of artifacts, many of which scale with magnetic field strength and can seriously compromise both EEG and fMRI data quality in recordings above 3T. The aim of the present study was to implement and characterize an optimized setup for simultaneous EEG-fMRI in humans at 7T. The effects of EEG cable length and geometry for signal transmission between the cap and amplifiers were assessed in a phantom model, with specific attention to noise contributions from the MR scanner coldheads. Cable shortening (down to 12cm from cap to amplifiers) and bundling effectively reduced environment noise by up to 84% in average power and 91% in inter-channel power variability. Subject safety was assessed and confirmed via numerical simulations of RF power distribution and temperature measurements on a phantom model, building on the limited existing literature at ultra-high field. MRI data degradation effects due to the EEG system were characterized via B0 and B1(+) field mapping on a human volunteer, demonstrating important, although not prohibitive, B1 disruption effects. With the optimized setup, simultaneous EEG-fMRI acquisitions were performed on 5 healthy volunteers undergoing two visual paradigms: an eyes-open/eyes-closed task, and a visual evoked potential (VEP) paradigm using reversing-checkerboard stimulation. EEG data exhibited clear occipital alpha modulation and average VEPs, respectively, with concomitant BOLD signal changes. On a single-trial level, alpha power variations could be observed with relative confidence on all trials; VEP detection was more limited, although statistically significant responses could be detected in more than 50% of trials for every subject. Overall, we conclude that the proposed setup is well suited for simultaneous EEG-fMRI at 7T.

Cross-validation of bioelectrical impedance analysis for the assessment of body composition in a representative sample of 6- to 13-year-old children.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: (1) To cross-validate tetra- (4-BIA) and octopolar (8-BIA) bioelectrical impedance analysis vs dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for the assessment of total and appendicular body composition and (2) to evaluate the accuracy of external 4-BIA algorithms for the prediction of total body composition, in a representative sample of Swiss children. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A representative sample of 333 Swiss children aged 6-13 years from the Kinder-Sportstudie (KISS) (ISRCTN15360785). Whole-body fat-free mass (FFM) and appendicular lean tissue mass were measured with DXA. Body resistance (R) was measured at 50 kHz with 4-BIA and segmental body resistance at 5, 50, 250 and 500 kHz with 8-BIA. The resistance index (RI) was calculated as height(2)/R. Selection of predictors (gender, age, weight, RI4 and RI8) for BIA algorithms was performed using bootstrapped stepwise linear regression on 1000 samples. We calculated 95% confidence intervals (CI) of regression coefficients and measures of model fit using bootstrap analysis. Limits of agreement were used as measures of interchangeability of BIA with DXA. RESULTS: 8-BIA was more accurate than 4-BIA for the assessment of FFM (root mean square error (RMSE)=0.90 (95% CI 0.82-0.98) vs 1.12 kg (1.01-1.24); limits of agreement 1.80 to -1.80 kg vs 2.24 to -2.24 kg). 8-BIA also gave accurate estimates of appendicular body composition, with RMSE < or = 0.10 kg for arms and < or = 0.24 kg for legs. All external 4-BIA algorithms performed poorly with substantial negative proportional bias (r> or = 0.48, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a representative sample of young Swiss children (1) 8-BIA was superior to 4-BIA for the prediction of FFM, (2) external 4-BIA algorithms gave biased predictions of FFM and (3) 8-BIA was an accurate predictor of segmental body composition.

Detection of neuronal activity and metabolism in a model of dehydration-induced anorexia in rats at 14.1 T using manganese-enhanced MRI and 1H MRS.

In this study, hypothalamic activation was performed by dehydration-induced anorexia (DIA) and overnight food suppression (OFS) in female rats. The assessment of the hypothalamic response to these challenges by manganese-enhanced MRI showed increased neuronal activity in the paraventricular nuclei (PVN) and lateral hypothalamus (LH), both known to be areas involved in the regulation of food intake. The effects of DIA and OFS were compared by generating T-score maps. Increased neuronal activation was detected in the PVN and LH of DIA rats relative to OFS rats. In addition, the neurochemical profile of the PVN and LH were measured by (1) H MRS at 14.1T. Significant increases in metabolite levels were measured in DIA and OFS relative to control rats. Statistically significant increases in γ-aminobutyric acid were found in DIA (p=0.0007) and OFS (p<0.001) relative to control rats. Lactate increased significantly in DIA (p=0.03), but not in OFS, rats. This work shows that manganese-enhanced MRI coupled to (1) H MRS at high field is a promising noninvasive method for the investigation of the neural pathways and mechanisms involved in the control of food intake, in the autonomic and endocrine control of energy metabolism and in the regulation of body weight.

In vivo assessment of antiretroviral therapy-associated side effects

Antiretroviral therapy has been associated with side effects, either from the drug itself or in conjunction with the effects of human immunodeficiency virus infection. Here, we evaluated the side effects of the protease inhibitor (PI) indinavir in hamsters consuming a normal or high-fat diet. Indinavir treatment increased the hamster death rate and resulted in an increase in triglyceride, cholesterol and glucose serum levels and a reduction in anti-oxLDL auto-antibodies. The treatment led to histopathological alterations of the kidney and the heart. These results suggest that hamsters are an interesting model for the study of the side effects of antiretroviral drugs, such as PIs.

Integrating human indoor air pollutant exposure within Life Cycle Impact Assessment.

Neglecting health effects from indoor pollutant emissions and exposure, as currently done in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), may result in product or process optimizations at the expense of workers' or consumers' health. To close this gap, methods for considering indoor exposure to chemicals are needed to complement the methods for outdoor human exposure assessment already in use. This paper summarizes the work of an international expert group on the integration of human indoor and outdoor exposure in LCA, within the UNEP/ SETAC Life Cycle Initiative. A new methodological framework is proposed for a general procedure to include human-health effects from indoor exposure in LCA. Exposure models from occupational hygiene and household indoor air quality studies and practices are critically reviewed and recommendations are provided on the appropriateness of various model alternatives in the context of LCA. A single-compartment box model is recommended for use as a default in LCA, enabling one to screen occupational and household exposures consistent with the existing models to assess outdoor emission in a multimedia environment. An initial set of model parameter values was collected. The comparison between indoor and outdoor human exposure per unit of emission shows that for many pollutants, intake per unit of indoor emission may be several orders of magnitude higher than for outdoor emissions. It is concluded that indoor exposure should be routinely addressed within LCA.

Assessment of Physical Activity and Energy Expenditure by GPS Combined With Accelerometry in Real-Life Conditions.

Background: Physical activity (PA) and related energy expenditure (EE) is often assessed by means of a single technique. Because of inherent limitations, single techniques may not allow for an accurate assessment both PA and related EE. The aim of this study was to develop a model to accurately assess common PA types and durations and thus EE in free-living conditions, combining data from global positioning system (GPS) and 2 accelerometers. Methods: Forty-one volunteers participated in the study. First, a model was developed and adjusted to measured EE with a first group of subjects (Protocol I, n = 12) who performed 6 structured and supervised PA. Then, the model was validated over 2 experimental phases with 2 groups (n = 12 and n = 17) performing scheduled (Protocol I) and spontaneous common activities in real-life condition (Protocol II). Predicted EE was compared with actual EE as measured by portable indirect calorimetry. Results: In protocol I, performed PA types could be recognized with little error. The duration of each PA type could be predicted with an accuracy below 1 minute. Measured and predicted EE were strongly associated (r = .97, P < .001). Conclusion: Combining GPS and 2 accelerometers allows for an accurate assessment of PA and EE in free-living situations.

Use of Two-Part Regression Calibration Model to Correct for Measurement Error in Episodically Consumed Foods in a Single-Replicate Study Design: EPIC Case Study.

In epidemiologic studies, measurement error in dietary variables often attenuates association between dietary intake and disease occurrence. To adjust for the attenuation caused by error in dietary intake, regression calibration is commonly used. To apply regression calibration, unbiased reference measurements are required. Short-term reference measurements for foods that are not consumed daily contain excess zeroes that pose challenges in the calibration model. We adapted two-part regression calibration model, initially developed for multiple replicates of reference measurements per individual to a single-replicate setting. We showed how to handle excess zero reference measurements by two-step modeling approach, how to explore heteroscedasticity in the consumed amount with variance-mean graph, how to explore nonlinearity with the generalized additive modeling (GAM) and the empirical logit approaches, and how to select covariates in the calibration model. The performance of two-part calibration model was compared with the one-part counterpart. We used vegetable intake and mortality data from European Prospective Investigation on Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. In the EPIC, reference measurements were taken with 24-hour recalls. For each of the three vegetable subgroups assessed separately, correcting for error with an appropriately specified two-part calibration model resulted in about three fold increase in the strength of association with all-cause mortality, as measured by the log hazard ratio. Further found is that the standard way of including covariates in the calibration model can lead to over fitting the two-part calibration model. Moreover, the extent of adjusting for error is influenced by the number and forms of covariates in the calibration model. For episodically consumed foods, we advise researchers to pay special attention to response distribution, nonlinearity, and covariate inclusion in specifying the calibration model.

Health literacy [Document électronique] : an economic perspective and data for Switzerland. Part 2, A review of health literacy measures and a cost assessment of limited health literacy

Summary : 1. Measuring health literacy in Switzerland: a review of six surveys: 1.1 Comparison of questionnaires - 1.2 Measures of health literacy in Switzerland - 1.3 Discussion of Swiss data on HL - 1.4 Description of the six surveys: 1.4.1 Current health trends and health literacy in the Swiss population (gfs-UNIVOX), 1.4.2 Nutrition, physical exercise and body weight : opinions and perceptions of the Swiss population (USI), 1.4.3 Health Literacy in Switzerland (ISPMZ), 1.4.4 Swiss Health Survey (SHS), 1.4.5 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), 1.4.6 Adult literacy and life skills survey (ALL). - 2 . Economic costs of low health literacy in Switzerland: a rough calculation. Appendix: Screenshots cost model

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.