Relevance and truthfulness in information correction and fusion

A general approach to information correction and fusion for belief functions is proposed, where not only may the information items be irrelevant, but sources may lie as well. We introduce a new correction scheme, which takes into account uncertain metaknowledge on the source’s relevance and truthfulness and that generalizes Shafer’s discounting operation. We then show how to reinterpret all connectives of Boolean logic in terms of source behavior assumptions with respect to relevance and truthfulness. We are led to generalize the unnormalized Dempster’s rule to all Boolean connectives, while taking into account the uncertainties pertaining to assumptions concerning the behavior of sources. Eventually, we further extend this approach to an even more general setting, where source behavior assumptions do not have to be restricted to relevance and truthfulness.We also establish the commutativity property between correction and fusion processes, when the behaviors of the sources are independent.

Living is Information Processing: From Molecules to Global Systems

We extend the concept that life is an informational phenomenon, at every level of organisation, from molecules to the global ecological system. According to this thesis: (a) living is information processing, in which memory is maintained by both molecular states and ecological states as well as the more obvious nucleic acid coding; (b) this information processing has one overall function-to perpetuate itself; and (c) the processing method is filtration (cognition) of, and synthesis of, information at lower levels to appear at higher levels in complex systems (emergence). We show how information patterns, are united by the creation of mutual context, generating persistent consequences, to result in 'functional information'. This constructive process forms arbitrarily large complexes of information, the combined effects of which include the functions of life. Molecules and simple organisms have already been measured in terms of functional information content; we show how quantification may be extended to each level of organisation up to the ecological. In terms of a computer analogy, life is both the data and the program and its biochemical structure is the way the information is embodied. This idea supports the seamless integration of life at all scales with the physical universe. The innovation reported here is essentially to integrate these ideas, basing information on the 'general definition' of information, rather than simply the statistics of information, thereby explaining how functional information operates throughout life. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Modified Information Criteria and Selection of Long Memory Time Series Models

The problem of model selection of a univariate long memory time series is investigated once a semi parametric estimator for the long memory parameter has been used. Standard information criteria are not consistent in this case. A Modified Information Criterion (MIC) that overcomes these difficulties is introduced and proofs that show its asymptotic validity are provided. The results are general and cover a wide range of short memory processes. Simulation evidence compares the new and existing methodologies and empirical applications in monthly inflation and daily realized volatility are presented.

The influence of the new general ophthalmic services (GOS) contract in optometrist referrals for glaucoma in Scotland

Purpose: To assess the quality of referrals from community optometrists in the northeast of Scotland to the hospital glaucoma service before and after the implementation of the new General Ophthalmic Services (GOS) contract in Scotland. Methods: Retrospective study encompassing two 6-month periods, one before the implementation of the new GOS (Scotland) contract in April 2006 (from June to November 2005), and the other after (from June to November 2006). The community optometrist referral forms and hospital glaucoma service notes were reviewed. Comparisons were performed using the t-test and ?- test. Results: In all, 183 referrals were made during the first 6-month period from June to November 2005, and 120 referrals were made during the second 6-month period from June to November 2006. After the introduction of the new GOS contract, there was a statistically significant increase in true-positive referrals (from 18.0 to 31.7%; P=0.006), decrease in false-positive referrals (from 36.6 to 31.7%; P=0.006), and increase in the number of referrals with information on applanation tonometry (from 11.8 to 50.0%; P=0.000), dilated fundal examination (from 2.2 to 24.2%; P=0.000), and repeat visual fields (from 14.8 to 28.3%; P=0.004) when compared to the first 6-month period. However, only 41.7% of referrals fulfilled the new GOS contract requirements, with information on applanation tonometry the most commonly missing. Conclusions: After the implementation of the new GOS (Scotland) contract in April 2006, there has been an improvement in the quality of the glaucoma referrals from the community optometrists in the northeast of Scotland, with a corresponding reduction in false-positive referrals. Despite the relatively positive effect so far, there is still scope for further improvement. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited All rights reserved.

Awareness and knowledge of autism and autism interventions: A general population survey.

Recent figures show that Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) affects at least 1 in 88 of the population, yet for years, international public awareness of ASD was limited. Over the past 5-10 years intense efforts have been made to raise autism awareness in the general population in countries such as UK and US. In this paper we report data from a large-scale general population survey (n=1204) in which we assessed autism awareness, knowledge about autism, and perceptions about autism interventions in Northern Ireland. We found high levels of autism awareness, in fact over 80% of the sample were aware of ASD and over 60% of these respondents knew someone with ASD in their own family, circle of friends or work colleagues. Generally, knowledge of strengths and challenges faced by individuals with ASD was relatively accurate. However, perceptions of interventions and service provider responsibilities were vague and uncertain. Results show that local and international autism awareness campaigns have largely been successful and that the focus should shift towards disseminating accurate information regarding intervention and service provider responsibilities.

Whose statistical reasoning is improved by information about causal structure?

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430–450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples’ errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

Hydrogel-Forming Microneedle Arrays Can Be Effectively Inserted in Skin by Self-Application: A Pilot Study Centred on Pharmacist Intervention and a Patient Information Leaflet

Purpose: To investigate, for the first time, the influence of pharmacist intervention and the use of a patient information leaflet on self-application of hydrogel-forming microneedle arrays by human volunteers without the aid of an applicator device.
Methods: A patient information leaflet was drafted and pharmacist counselling strategy devised. Twenty human volunteers applied 11 × 11 arrays of 400 μm hydrogel-forming microneedle arrays to their own skin following the instructions provided. Skin barrier function disruption was assessed using transepidermal water loss measurements and optical coherence tomography and results compared to those obtained when more experienced researchers applied the microneedles to the volunteers or themselves.
Results: Volunteer self-application of the 400 μm microneedle design resulted in an approximately 30% increase in skin transepidermal water loss, which was not significantly different from that seen with self-application by the more experienced researchers or application to the volunteers. Use of optical coherence tomography showed that self-application of microneedles of the same density (400 μm, 600 μm and 900 μm) led to percentage penetration depths of approximately 75%, 70% and 60%, respectively, though the diameter of the micropores created remained quite constant at approximately 200 μm. Transepidermal water loss progressively increased with increasing height of the applied microneedles and this data, like that for penetration depth, was consistent, regardless of applicant.
Conclusion: We have shown that hydrogel-forming microneedle arrays can be successfully and reproducibly applied by human volunteers given appropriate instruction. If these outcomes were able to be extrapolated to the general patient population, then use of bespoke MN applicator devices may not be necessary, thus possibly enhancing patient compliance.

Secure Transmission in MIMO Wiretap Channels Using General-Order Transmit Antenna Selection with Outdated CSI

In this paper, we propose general-order transmit antenna selection to enhance the secrecy performance of multiple-input–multiple-output multieavesdropper channels with outdated channel state information (CSI) at the transmitter. To evaluate the effect of the outdated CSI on the secure transmission of the system, we investigate the secrecy performance for two practical scenarios, i.e., Scenarios I and II, where the eavesdropper's CSI is not available at the transmitter and is available at the transmitter, respectively. For Scenario I, we derive exact and asymptotic closed-form expressions for the secrecy outage probability in Nakagami- m fading channels. In addition, we also derive the probability of nonzero secrecy capacity and the \varepsilon -outage secrecy capacity, respectively. Simple asymptotic expressions for the secrecy outage probability reveal that the secrecy diversity order is reduced when the CSI is outdated at the transmitter, and it is independent of the number of antennas at each eavesdropper N_text\rm{E} , the fading parameter of the eavesdropper's channel m_text\rm{E} , and the number of eavesdroppers M . For Scenario II, we make a comprehensive analysis of the average secrecy capacity obtained by the system. Specifically, new closed-form expressions for the exact and asymptotic average secrecy capacity are derived, which are valid for general systems with an arbitrary number of antennas, number of eavesdroppers, and fading severity parameters. Resorting to these results, we also determine a high signal-to-noise ratio power offset to explicitly quantify the impact of the main c- annel and the eavesdropper's channel on the average secrecy capacity.

Fusion of Static and Temporal Information for Threat Evaluation in Sensor Networks

In many CCTV and sensor network based intelligent surveillance systems, a number of attributes or criteria are used to individually evaluate the degree of potential threat of a suspect. The outcomes for these attributes are in general from analytical algorithms where data are often pervaded with uncertainty and incompleteness. As a result, such individual threat evaluations are often inconsistent, and individual evaluations can change as time elapses. Therefore, integrating heterogeneous threat evaluations with temporal influence to obtain a better overall evaluation is a challenging issue. So far, this issue has rarely be considered by existing event reasoning frameworks under uncertainty in sensor network based surveillance. In this paper, we first propose a weighted aggregation operator based on a set of principles that constraints the fusion of individual threat evaluations. Then, we propose a method to integrate the temporal influence on threat evaluation changes. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our system with a decision support event modeling framework using an airport security surveillance scenario.

Performance assessment of cascade control loopswith non-Gaussian disturbances using entropy information

Cascade control is one of the routinely used control strategies in industrial processes because it can dramatically improve the performance of single-loop control, reducing both the maximum deviation and the integral error of the disturbance response. Currently, many control performance assessment methods of cascade control loops are developed based on the assumption that all the disturbances are subject to Gaussian distribution. However, in the practical condition, several disturbance sources occur in the manipulated variable or the upstream exhibits nonlinear behaviors. In this paper, a general and effective index of the performance assessment of the cascade control system subjected to the unknown disturbance distribution is proposed. Like the minimum variance control (MVC) design, the output variances of the primary and the secondary loops are decomposed into a cascade-invariant and a cascade-dependent term, but the estimated ARMA model for the cascade control loop based on the minimum entropy, instead of the minimum mean squares error, is developed for non-Gaussian disturbances. Unlike the MVC index, an innovative control performance index is given based on the information theory and the minimum entropy criterion. The index is informative and in agreement with the expected control knowledge. To elucidate wide applicability and effectiveness of the minimum entropy cascade control index, a simulation problem and a cascade control case of an oil refinery are applied. The comparison with MVC based cascade control is also included.

General, PDB-based collective variables for protein folding

New, automated forms of data-analysis are required in order to understand the high-dimensional trajectories that are obtained from molecular dynamics simulations on proteins. Dimensionality reduction algorithms are particularly appealing in this regard as they allow one to construct unbiased, low-dimensional representations of the trajectory using only the information encoded in the trajectory. The downside of this approach is that different sets of coordinates are required for each different chemical systems under study precisely because the coordinates are constructed using information from the trajectory. In this paper we show how one can resolve this problem by using the sketch-map algorithm that we recently proposed to construct a low-dimensional representation of the structures contained in the protein data bank (PDB). We show that the resulting coordinates are as useful for analysing trajectory data as coordinates constructed using landmark configurations taken from the trajectory and that these coordinates can thus be used for understanding protein folding across a range of systems.

Triggering employee voice under the European Information and Consultation Directive: A non-union case study

The transposition of the 2002/14/EC Directive, establishing a general framework for information and consultation (I&C), has proven contentious in largely voluntarist systems of employment regulation. Receiving particular criticism is the employee ‘opt-in’ mechanism as a means to access I&C rights. For non-union employees in particular, the ability and potential to negotiate rights for I&C is widely seen to be problematic. This article uniquely examines the opt-in mechanism in the context of non-unionism, considering how non-union employers respond to non-union employees invoking their legislative rights to I&C. Drawing upon a case study conducted over four years in a large non-union multinational, the evidence shows how the opt-in and negotiation process function to the advantage of the employer rather than the intended regulatory impact to advance employee rights

Systematic review of interventions to improve the psychological well-being of general practitioners

BACKGROUND: The health of doctors who work in primary care is threatened by workforce and workload issues. There is a need to find and appraise ways in which to protect their mental health, including how to achieve the broader, positive outcome of well-being. Our primary outcome was to evaluate systematically the research evidence regarding the effectiveness of interventions designed to improve General Practitioner (GP) well-being across two continua; psychopathology (mental ill-health focus) and 'languishing to flourishing' (positive mental health focus). In addition we explored the extent to which developments in well-being research may be integrated within existing approaches to design an intervention that will promote mental health and prevent mental illness among these doctors.

METHODS: Medline, Embase, Cinahl, PsychINFO, Cochrane Register of Trials and Web of Science were searched from inception to January 2015 for studies where General Practitioners and synonyms were the primary participants. Eligible interventions included mental ill-health prevention strategies (e.g. promotion of early help-seeking) and mental health promotion programmes (e.g. targeting the development of protective factors at individual and organizational levels). A control group was the minimum design requirement for study inclusion and primary outcomes had to be assessed by validated measures of well-being or mental ill-health. Titles and abstracts were assessed independently by two reviewers with 99 % agreement and full papers were appraised critically using validated tools.

RESULTS: Only four studies (with a total of 997 GPs) from 5392 titles met inclusion criteria. The studies reported statistically significant improvement in self-reported mental ill-health. Two interventions used cognitive-behavioural techniques, one was mindfulness-based and one fed-back GHQ scores and self-help information.

CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need for high quality, controlled studies in GP well-being. Research on improving GP well-being is limited by focusing mainly on stressors and not giving systematic attention to the development of positive mental health.

The basic principles of uncertain information fusion. An organised review of merging rules in different representation frameworks.

We propose and advocate basic principles for the fusion of incomplete or uncertain information items, that should apply regardless of the formalism adopted for representing pieces of information coming from several sources. This formalism can be based on sets, logic, partial orders, possibility theory, belief functions or imprecise probabilities. We propose a general notion of information item representing incomplete or uncertain information about the values of an entity of interest. It is supposed to rank such values in terms of relative plausibility, and explicitly point out impossible values. Basic issues affecting the results of the fusion process, such as relative information content and consistency of information items, as well as their mutual consistency, are discussed. For each representation setting, we present fusion rules that obey our principles, and compare them to postulates specific to the representation proposed in the past. In the crudest (Boolean) representation setting (using a set of possible values), we show that the understanding of the set in terms of most plausible values, or in terms of non-impossible ones matters for choosing a relevant fusion rule. Especially, in the latter case our principles justify the method of maximal consistent subsets, while the former is related to the fusion of logical bases. Then we consider several formal settings for incomplete or uncertain information items, where our postulates are instantiated: plausibility orderings, qualitative and quantitative possibility distributions, belief functions and convex sets of probabilities. The aim of this paper is to provide a unified picture of fusion rules across various uncertainty representation settings.

Computerized key to the genus Bursaphelenchus Fuchs, analysis of species clusters based on morphology, using information of insect vectors and associated plants, with a revision of the genus.

The genus Bursaphelenchus includes B. xylophilus (Steiner et Buhrer, 1934) Nickle, 1981, which is of world economic and quarantine importance. Distinction among several species of the pinewood nematodes species complex (PWNSC) is often difficult. Besides standard morphology, morphometrics and molecular biology, new tools are welcome to better understand this group. The computerized (or e-) key of this genus, presented in this communication, includes 74 species (complete list of valid species of the world fauna) and 35 characters, that were used by the taxonomic experts of this group, in the original descriptions. Morphology of sex organs (male spicules and female vulval region) was digitized and classified to distinguish alternative types. Several qualitative characters with overlapping character states (expressions) were transformed into the morphometric indices with the discontinuous ranges (characters of ratios of the spicule dimensions). Characters and their states (expressions) were illustrated in detail and supplied by brief user-friendly comments. E-key was created in the BIKEY identification system (Dianov & Lobanov, 1996-2004). The system has built-algorithm ranging characters depending on their diagnostic values at each step of identification. Matrix of species and the character states (structural part of the e-key database) may be easily transformed using statistical packages into the dendrograms of general phenetic similarities (UPGMA, standard distance: mean character difference). It may be useful in the detailed analysis of taxonomy and evolution of the genus and in its splitting to the species groups based on morphology. The verification of the dendrogram using the information on the species links with insect vectors and their associated plants, provided an opportunity to recognize the five clusters (xylophilus, hunti, eremus sensu stricto, tusciae and piniperdae sensu stricto), which seem to be the natural species groups. The hypothesis about the origin and the first stages of the genus evolution is proposed. A general review of the genus Bursaphelenchus is presented.