Life-Cycle Effects on Household Expenditures: A Latent-Variable Approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life- cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Measurement with Some Theory: a New Approach to Evaluate Business Cycle Models

We propose a method to evaluate cyclical models which does not require knowledge of the DGP and the exact empirical specification of the aggregate decision rules. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks and others to evaluate the model or contrast sub-models. The approach has good size and excellent power properties, even in small samples. We show how to examine the validity of a class of models, sort out the relevance of certain frictions, evaluate the importance of an added feature, and indirectly estimate structural parameters.

Predictable Life-Cycle Shocks, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles.

The periodicity of crises: a survey of the literature

This paper examines the literature on the periodical recurrence of economic crises up to the 1840s, illustrating how the awareness of this phenomenon was far more widespread than the few existing histories of business cycle theories indicate, and also that early writers were more interested in emphasizing the intermittent return of crises rather than their precise timing

Credit Constraints, Firms' Precautionary Investment, and the Business Cycle

This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of firms' precautionary investment behavior in response to the anticipation of future financing constraints. Firms increase their demand for liquid and safe investments in order to alleviate future borrowing constraints and decrease the probability of having to forego future profitable investment opportunities. This results in an increase in the share of short-term projects that produces a temporary increase in output, at the expense of lower long-run investment and future output. I show in a calibrated model that this behavior is at the source of a novel and powerful channel of shock transmission of productivity shocks that produces short-run dampening and long-run propagation. Furthermore, it can account for the observed business cycle patterns of the aggregate and firm-level composition of investment.

Trait decoupling promotes evolutionary diversification of the trophic and acoustic system of damselfishes.

Trait decoupling, wherein evolutionary release of constraints permits specialization of formerly integrated structures, represents a major conceptual framework for interpreting patterns of organismal diversity. However, few empirical tests of this hypothesis exist. A central prediction, that the tempo of morphological evolution and ecological diversification should increase following decoupling events, remains inadequately tested. In damselfishes (Pomacentridae), a ceratomandibular ligament links the hyoid bar and lower jaws, coupling two main morphofunctional units directly involved in both feeding and sound production. Here, we test the decoupling hypothesis by examining the evolutionary consequences of the loss of the ceratomandibular ligament in multiple damselfish lineages. As predicted, we find that rates of morphological evolution of trophic structures increased following the loss of the ligament. However, this increase in evolutionary rate is not associated with an increase in trophic breadth, but rather with morphofunctional specialization for the capture of zooplanktonic prey. Lineages lacking the ceratomandibular ligament also shows different acoustic signals (i.e. higher variation of pulse periods) from others, resulting in an increase of the acoustic diversity across the family. Our results support the idea that trait decoupling can increase morphological and behavioural diversity through increased specialization rather than the generation of novel ecotypes.

STRATEGIES TO SURPASS THE VULNERABILITY OF THE SMALL ISLAND STATES WITH FEW RESOURCES: THE CASE OF CAPE VERDE

The problem of small Island Developing States (SIDS) is quite recent, end of the 80s and 90s, still looking for a theoretical consolidation. SIDS, as small states in development, formed by one or several islands geographically dispersed, present reduced population, market, territory, natural resources, including drinkable water, and, in great number of the cases, low level of economic activity, factors that together, hinder the gathering of scale economies. To these diseconomies they come to join the more elevated costs in transports and communications which, allies to lower productivities, to a smaller quality and diversification of its productions, which difficult its integration in the world economy. In some SIDS these factors are not dissociating of the few investments in infrastructures, in the formation of human resources and in productive investments, just as it happens in most of the developing countries. In ecological terms, many of them with shortage of natural resources, but integrating important ecosystems in national and world terms, but with great fragility relatively to the pollution action, of excessive fishing, of uncontrolled development of tourism, factors that, conjugated and associated to the stove effect, condition the climate and the slope of the medium level of the sea water and therefore could put in cause the own survival of some of them. The drive to the awareness of the international community towards its problems summed up with the accomplishment by the United Nations in the Barbados’s Conference, 1994 where the right to the development was emphasized, through the going up the appropriate strategies and the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of the SIDS. The orientation of the regional and international cooperation in that sense, sharing technology (namely clean technology and control and administration environmental technology), information and creation of capacity-building, supplying means, including financial resources, creating non discriminatory and just trade rules, it would drive to the establishment of a world system economically more equal, in which the production, the consumption, the pollution levels, the demographic politics were guided towards the sustainability. It constituted an important step for the recognition for the international community on the specificities of those states and it allowed the definition of a group of norms and politics to implement at the national, regional and international level and it was important that they continued in the sense of the sustainable development. But this Conference had in its origin previous summits: the Summit of Rio de Janeiro about Environment and Development, accomplished in 1992, which left an important document - the Agenda 21, in the Conference of Stockholm at 1972 and even in the Conference of Ramsar, 1971 about “Wetlands.” CENTRO DE ESTUDOS AFRICANOS Occasional Papers © CEA - Centro de Estudos Africanos 4 Later, the Valletta Declaration, Malta, 1998, the Forum of Small States, 2002, get the international community's attention for the problems of SIDS again, in the sense that they act to increase its resilience. If the definition of “vulnerability” was the inability of the countries to resist economical, ecological and socially to the external shocks and “resilience” as the potential for them to absorb and minimize the impact of those shocks, presenting a structure that allows them to be little affected by them, a part of the available studies, dated of the 90s, indicate that the SIDS are more vulnerable than the other developing countries. The vulnerability of SIDS results from the fact the they present an assemblage of characteristics that turns them less capable of resisting or they advance strategies that allow a larger resilience to the external shocks, either anthropogenic (economical, financial, environmental) or even natural, connected with the vicissitudes of the nature. If these vulnerability factors were grouped with the expansion of the economic capitalist system at world level, the economic and financial globalisation, the incessant search of growing profits on the part of the multinational enterprises, the technological accelerated evolution drives to a situation of disfavour of the more poor. The creation of the resilience to the external shocks, to the process of globalisation, demands from SIDS and of many other developing countries the endogen definition of strategies and solid but flexible programs of integrated development. These must be assumed by the instituted power, but also by the other stakeholders, including companies and organizations of the civil society and for the population in general. But that demands strong investment in the formation of human resources, in infrastructures, in investigation centres; it demands the creation capacity not only to produce, but also to produce differently and do international marketing. It demands institutional capacity. Cape Verde is on its way to this stage.

Wide-pulse-high-frequency neuromuscular stimulation of triceps surae induces greater muscle fatigue compared with conventional stimulation.

We compared the extent and origin of muscle fatigue induced by short-pulse-low-frequency [conventional (CONV)] and wide-pulse-high-frequency (WPHF) neuromuscular electrical stimulation. We expected CONV contractions to mainly originate from depolarization of axonal terminal branches (spatially determined muscle fiber recruitment) and WPHF contractions to be partly produced via a central pathway (motor unit recruitment according to size principle). Greater neuromuscular fatigue was, therefore, expected following CONV compared with WPHF. Fourteen healthy subjects underwent 20 WPHF (1 ms-100 Hz) and CONV (50 μs-25 Hz) evoked isometric triceps surae contractions (work/rest periods 20:40 s) at an initial target of 10% of maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) force. Force-time integral of the 20 evoked contractions (FTI) was used as main index of muscle fatigue; MVC force loss was also quantified. Central and peripheral fatigue were assessed by voluntary activation level and paired stimulation amplitudes, respectively. FTI in WPHF was significantly lower than in CONV (21,717 ± 11,541 vs. 37,958 ± 9,898 N·s P<0,001). The reductions in MVC force (WPHF: -7.0 ± 2.7%; CONV: -6.2 ± 2.5%; P < 0.01) and paired stimulation amplitude (WPHF: -8.0 ± 4.0%; CONV: -7.4 ± 6.1%; P < 0.001) were similar between conditions, whereas no change was observed for voluntary activation level (P > 0.05). Overall, our results showed a different motor unit recruitment pattern between the two neuromuscular electrical stimulation modalities with a lower FTI indicating greater muscle fatigue for WPHF, possibly limiting the presumed benefits for rehabilitation programs.

Pulse wave analysis of aortic pressure: diastole should also be considered.

BACKGROUND: : The systolic augmentation index (sAix), calculated from the central aortic pulse wave (reconstructed from the noninvasive recording of the radial pulse with applanation tonometry), is widely used as a simple index of central arterial stiffness, but has the disadvantage of also being influenced by the timing of the reflected with respect to the forward pressure wave, as shown by its inverse dependence on heart rate (HR). During diastole, the central aortic pulse also contains reflected waves, but their relationship to arterial stiffness and HR has not been studied. METHODS: : In 48 men and 45 women, all healthy, with ages ranging from 19 to 70 years, we measured pulse wave velocity (PWV, patients supine), a standard evaluator of arterial stiffness, and carried out radial applanation tonometry (patients sitting and supine). The impact of reflected waves on the diastolic part of the aortic pressure waveform was quantified in the form of a diastolic augmentation index (dAix). RESULTS: : Across ages, sexes, and body position, there was an inverse relationship between the sAix and the dAix. When PWV and HR were added as covariates to a prediction model including age, sex and body position as main factors, the sAix was directly related to PWV (P < 0.0001) and inversely to HR (P < 0.0001). With the same analysis, the dAix was inversely related to PWV (P < 0.0001) and independent of HR (P = 0.52). CONCLUSION: : The dAix has the same degree of linkage to arterial stiffness as the more conventional sAix, while being immune to the confounding effect of HR. The quantification of diastolic aortic pressure augmentation by reflected waves could be a useful adjunct to pulse wave analysis.

Dispersal strategies, few dominating or many coexisting: the effect of environmental spatial structure and multiple sources of mortality.

Interspecific competition, life history traits, environmental heterogeneity and spatial structure as well as disturbance are known to impact the successful dispersal strategies in metacommunities. However, studies on the direction of impact of those factors on dispersal have yielded contradictory results and often considered only few competing dispersal strategies at the same time. We used a unifying modeling approach to contrast the combined effects of species traits (adult survival, specialization), environmental heterogeneity and structure (spatial autocorrelation, habitat availability) and disturbance on the selected, maintained and coexisting dispersal strategies in heterogeneous metacommunities. Using a negative exponential dispersal kernel, we allowed for variation of both species dispersal distance and dispersal rate. We showed that strong disturbance promotes species with high dispersal abilities, while low local adult survival and habitat availability select against them. Spatial autocorrelation favors species with higher dispersal ability when adult survival and disturbance rate are low, and selects against them in the opposite situation. Interestingly, several dispersal strategies coexist when disturbance and adult survival act in opposition, as for example when strong disturbance regime favors species with high dispersal abilities while low adult survival selects species with low dispersal. Our results unify apparently contradictory previous results and demonstrate that spatial structure, disturbance and adult survival determine the success and diversity of coexisting dispersal strategies in competing metacommunities.

Profound impact of uncomplicated pregnancy on diastolic, but not systolic pulse contour of aortic pressure

RESUME: L'objectif de cette étude était de déterminer l'impact de la grossesse non compliquée sur l'onde de pouls de la pression aortique centrale. Méthode 66 femmes au total avec une grossesse simple ont été réparties en trois groupes selon le stade de leur gestation: premier trimestre (T1, n=22), deuxième trimestre (T2, n=20) et troisième trimestre (T3, n=24). Le groupe contrôle (C, n=21) était constitué de femmes non enceintes, en bonne santé habituelle, prenant une contraception oestroprogestative. La tonométrie d'aplanation a été utilisée pour l'acquisition des ondes de pouls centrale un appareil disponible dans le commerce (SphygmoCor) permet l'enregistrement de l'onde de pouls périphérique avec un tonomètre d'aplanation de l'artère radiale au niveau du poignet, puis effectue sa transformation en sa forme centrale, grâce à une analyse de Fourrier et une fonction de transfert. L'influence des ondes réfléchies sur l'onde de pouls a été déterminée non seulement pendant la systole (augmentation systolique), comme on procède habituellement dans l'analyse de l'onde de pouls, mais aussi pendant la diastole (augmentation diastolique). Résultats Au cours de la grossesse, les pressions centrales systolique et diastolique sont restées inchangées et comparables aux valeurs mesurées chez les femmes qui ne sont pas enceintes. Dans le groupe contrôle, l'augmentation systolique s'élevait à 8.1±7.5% de la pression de pouls ; il n'y avait pas de différence statistiquement significative avec les valeurs obtenues chez les femmes enceintes, et ce, à n'importe quel stade de la grossesse (T1 : 4.6±11.4%, T2: 5.0±9.3%, T3 : 4.7±8.1%). Par contre, l'amplitude de l'augmentation diastolique diminuait avec la progression de la grossesse (C 6.5±2.4%, T1 : 5.2±3.1%, T2 : 3.8±2.6%; P=0.002 versus C; T3 : 2.3±2.0%; P<0.0001 versus C et P=0.004 versus T 1). Conclusion La grossesse ne modifie pas la forme de l'onde de pouls systolique centrale, ce qui implique de la part du système cardiovasculaire une adaptation fine à la demande croissante de flux sanguin, et ce, à tous les stades de la grossesse. Par contre, l'amplitude de l'onde de réflexion atteignant l'aorte pendant la diastole diminue progressivement au cours de la grossesse. Perspectives De récentes études montrent qu'une valeur anormalement haute de l'augmentation systolique de la pression centrale, comme on peut la déterminer avec la tonométrie d'aplanation, pourrait être un indice de trouble hypertensif de la grossesse débutant. Cette technique simple pourrait être d'autant plus facile à mettre en oeuvre si les valeurs normales pour l'augmentation systolique étaient indépendantes du stade de la grossesse, comme le suggèrent nos résultats, du moins pour les mesures prises en position assise.

Les paramètres du cycle vital de Physa acuta (Gastropoda, Mollusca) en milieu expérimental.

The values of the life history parameters expressed in the Lotka's equation were measured in the experimental conditions (20ºC, food ad libitum) for the aquatic pumonate Physa acuta. The estimated fitness value allows the population to double in about 4 weeks. The life cycle is very short (about 3 times shorter than for Lymnaea peregra in similar conditions) because of the important relative size of the eggs, a very high growth rate and an early maturity. This kind of strategy seems adaptive in eutrophic and temporary pools, where the adult mortality is important and density-independant. While the longevity shows very poor correlations with all other parameters, adult size, age at maturity and fecundity are strongly correlated. Structural and functionnal interpetations of these correlations are proposed. A mixed strategy seems a good hypothesis for this usually bivoltine species: the little-size, early-maturity and high-fecondity strategy may be selected during the summer, and the big-size, delayed-maturity and poor fecundity strategy during the winter

La bella molinera

Aquest treball vol ser una aproximació a l’obra Die schöne Müllerin, D795, un cicle de vint cançons per a veu i piano, que Franz Schubert va compondre l’any 1823. L’obra es basa en un conjunt de poemes que havia escrit poc abans Wilhelm Müller, i que expliquen la història del desengany amorós d’un jove aprenent de moliner. La bella molinera presenta un ventall infinit de colors, emocions, paisatges... Va des de l’alegria més eufòrica fins a la desesperança més fonda, passant per moments d’ironia, de somnis i de sorpreses. Tot això és analitzat en el treball, número per número, tan en l’aspecte literari com en el musical, i en la seva interrelació.

The Importance of Using Games to Teach English in the 3rd Cycle

The title of this thesis is “The importance of using games to teach English in the 3rd Cycle”. I choose this topic because I think that games are important in the process of learning and because in my opinion not only students but people in general are more motivated to learn when they are having fun or when they are doing something that is interesting. Some authors argue that games stimulate learners to practise, to activate and extend their English vocabulary, and that most students feel more motivated to learn and learn more easily when they are having fun. Games make demands on learners’ intelligence and imagination and calls for active participation. That is exactly what 3rd Cycle students and teachers need in order to have success in their studies and work respectively. The 3rd Cycle students have covered the majority of the grammar and functions contents of the English curriculum in the previous Cycles (the 1st and 2nd Cycle) and in the 3rd Cycle the students need most of their time to put into practice what they have learned before. Games are an effective method to put in practice what they have learned before and also through games they have several contexts and different situations to explore in order to show their knowledge or their vocabulary. The 3rd Cycle students need methods that motivate them to learn and to participate in class and since they already study a specific language function. If the teacher uses an enjoyable method like games students will not get bored and they will be more motivate to participate in class.