Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Statistical tests for scaling in the inter-event times of earthquakes in California

We explore in depth the validity of a recently proposed scaling law for earthquake inter-event time distributions in the case of the Southern California, using the waveform cross-correlation catalog of Shearer et al. Two statistical tests are used: on the one hand, the standard two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is in agreement with the scaling of the distributions. On the other hand, the one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic complemented with Monte Carlo simulation of the inter-event times, as done by Clauset et al., supports the validity of the gamma distribution as a simple model of the scaling function appearing on the scaling law, for rescaled inter-event times above 0.01, except for the largest data set (magnitude greater than 2). A discussion of these results is provided.

The Leas Cross Commission The Commission of Investigation (Leas Cross Nursing Home) Final Report June 2009

The Leas Cross CommissionThe Commission of Investigation (Leas Cross Nursing Home) Final Report June 2009 Click here to download PDF 1.2mb

The report of the Outbreak Control Team of the investigation of an outbreak of listeriosis in the Belfast Health and Social Care Trust during May to November 2008

This is the report of the interagency Outbreak Control Team (OCT) of an investigation of an outbreak of listeriosis which occurred during May to November 2008 in the Belfast Health and Social Care Trust. The report describes the chronology of the outbreak and the outcome of epidemiological, environmental health and microbiological investigations. The report concludes with recommendations for public health, Trusts, the Department of Health and Social Services and Public Safety, the Food Standards Agency, and those responsible for hospital food procurement.

Exploration of the contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of explosives: A study of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers

The increasing number of bomb attacks involving improvised explosive devices, as well as the nature of the explosives, give rise to concern among safety and law enforcement agencies. The substances used in explosive charges are often everyday products diverted from their primary licit applications. Thus, reducing or limiting their accessibility for prevention purposes is difficult. Ammonium nitrate, employed in agriculture as a fertiliser, is used worldwide in small and large homemade bombs. Black powder, dedicated to hunting and shooting sports, is used illegally as a filling in pipe bombs causing extensive damage. If the main developments of instrumental techniques in explosive analysis have been constantly pushing the limits of detection, their actual contribution to the investigation of explosives in terms of source discrimination is limited. Forensic science has seen the emergence of a new technology, isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), that shows promising results. Its very first application in forensic science dates back to 1979. Liu et al. analysed cannabis plants coming from different countries [Liu et al. 1979]. This preliminary study highlighted its potential to discriminate specimens coming from different sources. Thirty years later, the keen interest in this new technology has given rise to a flourishing number of publications in forensic science. The countless applications of IRMS to a wide range of materials and substances attest to its success and suggest that the technique is ready to be used in forensic science. However, many studies are characterised by a lack of methodology and fundamental data. They have been undertaken in a top-down approach, applying this technique in an exploratory manner on a restricted sampling. This manner of procedure often does not allow the researcher to answer a number of questions, such as: do the specimens come from the same source, what do we mean by source or what is the inherent variability of a substance? The production of positive results has prevailed at the expense of forensic fundamentals. This research focused on the evaluation of the contribution of the information provided by isotopic analysis to the investigation of explosives. More specifically, this evaluation was based on a sampling of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers coming from known sources. Not only has the methodology developed in this work enabled us to highlight crucial elements inherent to the methods themselves, but also to evaluate both the longitudinal and transversal variabilities of the information. First, the study of the variability of the profile over time was undertaken. Secondly, the variability of black powders and ammonium nitrate fertilisers within the same source and between different sources was evaluated. The contribution of this information to the investigation of explosives was then evaluated and discussed. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Le nombre croissant d'attentats à la bombe impliquant des engins explosifs artisanaux, ainsi que la nature des charges explosives, constituent une préoccupation majeure pour les autorités d'application de la loi et les organismes de sécurité. Les substances utilisées dans les charges explosives sont souvent des produits du quotidien, détournés de leurs applications licites. Par conséquent, réduire ou limiter l'accessibilité de ces produits dans un but de prévention est difficile. Le nitrate d'ammonium, employé dans l'agriculture comme engrais, est utilisé dans des petits et grands engins explosifs artisanaux. La poudre noire, initialement dédiée à la chasse et au tir sportif, est fréquemment utilisée comme charge explosive dans les pipe bombs, qui causent des dommages importants. Si les développements des techniques d'analyse des explosifs n'ont cessé de repousser les limites de détection, leur contribution réelle à l'investigation des explosifs est limitée en termes de discrimination de sources. Une nouvelle technologie qui donne des résultats prometteurs a fait son apparition en science forensique: la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique (IRMS). Sa première application en science forensique remonte à 1979. Liu et al. ont analysé des plants de cannabis provenant de différents pays [Liu et al. 1979]. Cette étude préliminaire, basée sur quelques analyses, a mis en évidence le potentiel de l'IRMS à discriminer des spécimens provenant de sources différentes. Trente ans plus tard, l'intérêt marqué pour cette nouvelle technologie en science forensique se traduit par un nombre florissant de publications. Les innombrables applications de l'IRMS à une large gamme de matériaux et de substances attestent de son succès et suggèrent que la technique est prête à être utilisée en science forensique. Cependant, de nombreuses études sont caractérisées par un manque de méthodologie et de données fondamentales. Elles ont été menées sans définir les hypothèses de recherche et en appliquant cette technique de façon exploratoire sur un échantillonnage restreint. Cette manière de procéder ne permet souvent pas au chercheur de répondre à un certain nombre de questions, tels que: est-ce que deux spécimens proviennent de la même source, qu'entend-on par source ou encore quelle est l'intravariabilité d'une substance? La production de résultats positifs a prévalu au détriment des fondamentaux de science forensique. Cette recherche s'est attachée à évaluer la contribution réelle de l'information isotopique dans les investigations en matière d'explosifs. Plus particulièrement, cette évaluation s'est basée sur un échantillonnage constitué de poudres noires et d'engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium provenant de sources connues. La méthodologie développée dans ce travail a permis non seulement de mettre en évidence des éléments cruciaux relatifs à la méthode d'analyse elle-même, mais également d'évaluer la variabilité de l'information isotopique d'un point de vue longitudinal et transversal. Dans un premier temps, l'évolution du profil en fonction du temps a été étudiée. Dans un second temps, la variabilité du profil des poudres noires et des engrais à base de nitrate d'ammonium au sein d'une même source et entre différentes sources a été évaluée. La contribution de cette information dans le cadre des investigations d'explosifs a ensuite été discutée et évaluée.

Antimicrobial activity and chemical investigation of Brazilian Drosera

The antimicrobial activity of three different extracts (hexanic, ethyl acetate, methanol) obtained from Brazilian Drosera species (D. communis, D. montana var. montana, D. brevifolia, D. villosa var. graomogolensis, D. villosa var. villosa, Drosera sp. 1, and Drosera sp. 2 ) were tested against Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923), Enterococcus faecium (ATCC23212), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC27853), Escherichia coli (ATCC11229), Salmonella choleraesuis (ATCC10708), Klebsiella pneumoniae (ATCC13883), and Candida albicans (a human isolate). Better antimicrobial activity was observed with D. communis and D. montana var. montana ethyl acetate extracts. Phytochemical analyses from D. communis, D. montana var. montana and D. brevifolia yielded 5-hydroxy-2-methyl-1,4-naphthoquinone (plumbagin); long chain aliphatic hydrocarbons were isolated from D. communis and from D. villosa var. villosa, a mixture of long chain aliphatic alcohols and carboxylic acids, was isolated from D. communis and 3b-O-acetylaleuritolic acid from D. villosa var. villosa.

Summer School 2011 Event Flyer

The Quantitative Methodologies in Policy and Practice for Child Health and Wellbeing Summer School is organised by the Children’s Research Network for Ireland and Northern Ireland in conjunction with TCD School of Nursing & Midwifery. The Children’s Research Network for Ireland and Northern Ireland is a not for profit membership-based organization which supports the research community to better understand and improve the lives of children and young people, by creating and maintaining an inclusive, independent network through which  information, knowledge, experience, learning and skills can be shared. Membership to the network facilitates access to workshops, summer schools, and events focused on children’s research. The Summer School is funded by the Department of Children and Youth Affairs.

Contact tracing investigation after professional exposure to tuberculosis in a Swiss hospital using both tuberculin skin test and IGRA.

SETTING: A 950 bed teaching hospital in Switzerland. AIM: To describe the result of a contact investigation among health care workers (HCW) and patients after exposure to a physician with smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in a hospital setting using standard tuberculin skin tests (TST) and Interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). METHOD: HCW with a negative or unknown TST at hiring had a TST two weeks after the last contact with the index case (T0), repeated six weeks later if negative (T6). All exposed HCW had a T-SPOT.TB at T0 and T6. Exposed patients had a TST six weeks after the last contact, and a T-SPOT.TB if the TST was positive. RESULTS: Among 101 HCW, 17/73 (22%) had a positive TST at T0. TST was repeated in 50 at T6 and converted from negative to positive in eight (16%). Twelve HCW had a positive T-SPOT.TB at T0 and ten converted from negative to positive at T6. Seven HCW with a positive T-SPOT.TB reverted to negative at T6 or at later controls, most of them with test values close to the cut-off. Among 27 exposed patients tested at six weeks, ten had a positive TST, five of them confirmed by a positive T-SPOT.TB. CONCLUSIONS: HCW tested twice after exposure to a case of smear-positive pulmonary TB demonstrated a possible conversion in 10% with T-SPOT and 16% with TST. Some T-SPOT.TB reverted from positive to negative during the follow-up, mostly tests with a value close to the cut-off. Due to the variability of the test results, it seems advisable to repeat the test with values close to the cut-off before diagnosing the presence of a tuberculous infection.

24-hour ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring is unhelpful in the investigation of older persons with recurrent falls

Although frequently used in the assessment of patients with falls, it is unclear whether 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiography contributes to their assessment in older persons. The aim of this study is to identify electrocardiographic abnormalities in patients with recurrent falls and case controls, and determine whether 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiography identifies causal arrhythmias for falls. 24-hour ambulatory electrocardiography recordings were compared for the type and prevalence of arrhythmias and symptom correlation in consecutive older subjects with recurrent falls attending the accident and emergency department and in case controls (no previous falls or syncope).

Plutonium from above-ground nuclear tests in milk teeth: investigation of placental transfer in children born between 1951 and 1995 in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Occupational risks, the present nuclear threat, and the potential danger associated with nuclear power have raised concerns regarding the metabolism of plutonium in pregnant women. OBJECTIVE: We measured plutonium levels in the milk teeth of children born between 1951 and 1995 to assess the potential risk that plutonium incorporated by pregnant women might pose to the radiosensitive tissues of the fetus through placenta transfer. METHODS: We used milk teeth, whose enamel is formed during pregnancy, to investigate the transfer of plutonium from the mother's blood plasma to the fetus. We measured plutonium using sensitive sector field inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry techniques. We compared our results with those of a previous study on strontium-90 ((90)Sr) released into the atmosphere after nuclear bomb tests. RESULTS: Results show that plutonium activity peaks in the milk teeth of children born about 10 years before the highest recorded levels of plutonium fallout. By contrast, (90)Sr, which is known to cross the placenta barrier, manifests differently in milk teeth, in accordance with (90)Sr fallout deposition as a function of time. CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that plutonium found in milk teeth is caused by fallout that was inhaled around the time the milk teeth were shed and not from any accumulation during pregnancy through placenta transfer. Thus, plutonium may not represent a radiologic risk for the radiosensitive tissues of the fetus.