Conceptual models for designing information systems supporting the strategic analysis of technology environments

1 6 STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS -Chapter I presents the motivations of this dissertation by illustrating two gaps in the current body of knowledge that are worth filling, describes the research problem addressed by this thesis and presents the research methodology used to achieve this goal. -Chapter 2 shows a review of the existing literature showing that environment analysis is a vital strategic task, that it shall be supported by adapted information systems, and that there is thus a need for developing a conceptual model of the environment that provides a reference framework for better integrating the various existing methods and a more formal definition of the various aspect to support the development of suitable tools. -Chapter 3 proposes a conceptual model that specifies the various enviromnental aspects that are relevant for strategic decision making, how they relate to each other, and ,defines them in a more formal way that is more suited for information systems development. -Chapter 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the proposed model on the basis of its application to a concrete environment to evaluate its suitability to describe the current conditions and potential evolution of a real environment and get an idea of its usefulness. -Chapter 5 goes a step further by assembling a toolbox describing a set of methods that can be used to analyze the various environmental aspects put forward by the model and by providing more detailed specifications for a number of them to show how our model can be used to facilitate their implementation as software tools. -Chapter 6 describes a prototype of a strategic decision support tool that allow the analysis of some of the aspects of the environment that are not well supported by existing tools and namely to analyze the relationship between multiple actors and issues. The usefulness of this prototype is evaluated on the basis of its application to a concrete environment. -Chapter 7 finally concludes this thesis by making a summary of its various contributions and by proposing further interesting research directions.

Machine learning algorithms for spatial data. Case studies: Environmental pollution, natural hazards, renewable resources

This paper presents general problems and approaches for the spatial data analysis using machine learning algorithms. Machine learning is a very powerful approach to adaptive data analysis, modelling and visualisation. The key feature of the machine learning algorithms is that they learn from empirical data and can be used in cases when the modelled environmental phenomena are hidden, nonlinear, noisy and highly variable in space and in time. Most of the machines learning algorithms are universal and adaptive modelling tools developed to solve basic problems of learning from data: classification/pattern recognition, regression/mapping and probability density modelling. In the present report some of the widely used machine learning algorithms, namely artificial neural networks (ANN) of different architectures and Support Vector Machines (SVM), are adapted to the problems of the analysis and modelling of geo-spatial data. Machine learning algorithms have an important advantage over traditional models of spatial statistics when problems are considered in a high dimensional geo-feature spaces, when the dimension of space exceeds 5. Such features are usually generated, for example, from digital elevation models, remote sensing images, etc. An important extension of models concerns considering of real space constrains like geomorphology, networks, and other natural structures. Recent developments in semi-supervised learning can improve modelling of environmental phenomena taking into account on geo-manifolds. An important part of the study deals with the analysis of relevant variables and models' inputs. This problem is approached by using different feature selection/feature extraction nonlinear tools. To demonstrate the application of machine learning algorithms several interesting case studies are considered: digital soil mapping using SVM, automatic mapping of soil and water system pollution using ANN; natural hazards risk analysis (avalanches, landslides), assessments of renewable resources (wind fields) with SVM and ANN models, etc. The dimensionality of spaces considered varies from 2 to more than 30. Figures 1, 2, 3 demonstrate some results of the studies and their outputs. Finally, the results of environmental mapping are discussed and compared with traditional models of geostatistics.

Reproductive system abnormalities in Schistosoma mansoni adult worms isolated from Nectomys squamipes (Muridae: Sigmodontinae): brightfield and confocal laser scanning microscopy analysis

Schistosoma mansoni adult worms with genital anomalies isolated from Nectomys squamipes (Muridae: Sigmodontinae) were studied by confocal laser scanning microscopy under the reflected mode. One male without testicular lobes (testicular agenesia/anorchism) and two females, one with an atrophied ovary and another with 17 uterine eggs, were identified. The absence of testicular lobes occurred in a worm presenting otherwise normal male adult characteristics: tegument, tubercles and a gynaecophoric canal with spines. In both female specimens the digestive tube showed a vacuolated appearance, and the specimen with supernumerary uterine eggs exhibited a developing miracidium and an egg with a formed shell. The area of the ventral sucker was similar in both specimens however the tegument thickness, ovary and vitelline glands of the specimen with the atrophied ovary were smaller than those of the one with supernumerary eggs. These reported anomalies in the reproductive system call attention to the need to improve our understanding of genetic regulation and the possible role of environmental influences upon trematode development.

Genetic analysis of phenoxyalkanoic acid degradation in Sphingomonas herbicidovorans MH.

Phenoxyalkanoic acid degradation is well studied in Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria, but the genetic background has not been elucidated so far in Alphaproteobacteria. We report the isolation of several genes involved in dichlor- and mecoprop degradation from the alphaproteobacterium Sphingomonas herbicidovorans MH and propose that the degradation proceeds analogously to that previously reported for 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D). Two genes for alpha-ketoglutarate-dependent dioxygenases, sdpA(MH) and rdpA(MH), were found, both of which were adjacent to sequences with potential insertion elements. Furthermore, a gene for a dichlorophenol hydroxylase (tfdB), a putative regulatory gene (cadR), two genes for dichlorocatechol 1,2-dioxygenases (dccA(I/II)), two for dienelactone hydrolases (dccD(I/II)), part of a gene for maleylacetate reductase (dccE), and one gene for a potential phenoxyalkanoic acid permease were isolated. In contrast to other 2,4-D degraders, the sdp, rdp, and dcc genes were scattered over the genome and their expression was not tightly regulated. No coherent pattern was derived on the possible origin of the sdp, rdp, and dcc pathway genes. rdpA(MH) was 99% identical to rdpA(MC1), an (R)-dichlorprop/alpha-ketoglutarate dioxygenase from Delftia acidovorans MC1, which is evidence for a recent gene exchange between Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria. Conversely, DccA(I) and DccA(II) did not group within the known chlorocatechol 1,2-dioxygenases, but formed a separate branch in clustering analysis. This suggests a different reservoir and reduced transfer for the genes of the modified ortho-cleavage pathway in Alphaproteobacteria compared with the ones in Beta- and Gammaproteobacteria.

Genome-wide meta-analysis of common variant differences between men and women.

The male-to-female sex ratio at birth is constant across world populations with an average of 1.06 (106 male to 100 female live births) for populations of European descent. The sex ratio is considered to be affected by numerous biological and environmental factors and to have a heritable component. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of common allele modest effects at autosomal and chromosome X variants that could explain the observed sex ratio at birth. We conducted a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis across 51 studies, comprising overall 114 863 individuals (61 094 women and 53 769 men) of European ancestry and 2 623 828 common (minor allele frequency >0.05) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Allele frequencies were compared between men and women for directly-typed and imputed variants within each study. Forward-time simulations for unlinked, neutral, autosomal, common loci were performed under the demographic model for European populations with a fixed sex ratio and a random mating scheme to assess the probability of detecting significant allele frequency differences. We do not detect any genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10(-8)) common SNP differences between men and women in this well-powered meta-analysis. The simulated data provided results entirely consistent with these findings. This large-scale investigation across ~115 000 individuals shows no detectable contribution from common genetic variants to the observed skew in the sex ratio. The absence of sex-specific differences is useful in guiding genetic association study design, for example when using mixed controls for sex-biased traits.

Population dynamics of intermediate snail hosts of Fasciola hepatica and some environmental factors in San Juan y Martinez municipality, Cuba

The variation of abundances of intermediate snail hosts of Fasciola hepatica in Cuba (Fossaria cubensis and Pseudosuccinea columella) was studied during one year under natural conditions at five sampling sites in San Juan y Martinez municipality, Pinar del Rio province, Cuba. The effect of some environmental variables on the lymnaeid abundances was also studied. A canonical correspondence analysis showed that both species do not generally occur together in the same habitat and that most factors affect them in an opposite fashion, although both of them correlate positively through time to the diversity of the habitats. F. cubensis prefers the sites that are in or closer to the city whereas P. columella is more abundant in rural sites. Lymnaeid abundances are mainly affected by nitrite and nitrate concentrations as well as by the abundance of the thiarid Tarebia granifera. F. cubensis is more abundant in polluted habitats with low densities (or absence) of T. granifera whereas P. columella prefers cleaner habitats and can coexist with the thiarid, even at its higher densities. The implications of divergent preferences of the two lymnaeids for the control of fasciolosis are discussed.

Spatial analysis of the distribution of leprosy in the State of Ceará, Northeast Brazil

The aim of this study was to describe spatial patterns of the distribution of leprosy and to investigate spatial clustering of incidence rates in the state of Ceará, Northeast Brazil. The average incidence rate of leprosy for the period of 1991 to 1999 was calculated for each municipality of Ceará. Maps were used to describe the spatial distribution of the disease, and spatial statistics were applied to explore large- and small-scale variations of incidence rates. Three regions were identified in which the incidence of leprosy was particularly high. A spatial gradient in the incidence rates was identified, with a tendency of high rates to be concentrated on the North-South axis in the middle region of the state. Moran's I statistic indicated that a significant spatial autocorrelation also existed. The spatial distribution of leprosy in Ceará is heterogeneous. The reasons for spatial clustering of disease rates are not known, but might be related to an heterogeneous distribution of other factors such as crowding, social inequality, and environmental characteristics which by themselves determine the transmission of Mycobacterium leprae.

Epidemiology of visceral leishmaniasis through spatial analysis, in Belo Horizonte municipality, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

The geographic information system approach has permitted integration between demographic, socio-economic and environmental data, providing correlation between information from several data banks. In the current work, occurrence of human and canine visceral leishmaniases and insect vectors (Lutzomyia longipalpis) as well as biogeographic information related to 9 areas that comprise the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, between April 2001 and March 2002 were correlated and georeferenced. By using this technique it was possible to define concentration loci of canine leishmaniasis in the following regions: East; Northeast; Northwest; West; and Venda Nova. However, as for human leishmaniasis, it was not possible to perform the same analysis. Data analysis has also shown that 84.2% of the human leishmaniasis cases were related with canine leishmaniasis cases. Concerning biogeographic (altitude, area of vegetation influence, hydrographic, and areas of poverty) analysis, only altitude showed to influence emergence of leishmaniasis cases. A number of 4673 canine leishmaniasis cases and 64 human leishmaniasis cases were georeferenced, of which 67.5 and 71.9%, respectively, were living between 780 and 880 m above the sea level. At these same altitudes, a large number of phlebotomine sand flies were collected. Therefore, we suggest control measures for leishmaniasis in the city of Belo Horizonte, giving priority to canine leishmaniasis foci and regions at altitudes between 780 and 880 m.

Chagas disease in Mexico: an analysis of geographical distribution during the past 76 years - A review

Literature from 1928 through 2004 was compiled from different document sources published in Mexico or elsewhere. From these 907 publications, we found 19 different topics of Chagas disease study in Mexico. The publications were arranged by decade and also by state. This information was used to construct maps describing the distribution of Chagas disease according to different criteria: the disease, vectors, reservoirs, and strains. One of the major problems confronting study of this zoonotic disease is the great biodiversity of the vector species; there are 30 different species, with at least 10 playing a major role in human infection. The high variability of climates and biogeographic regions further complicate study and understanding of the dynamics of this disease in each region of the country. We used a desktop Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction procedure to provide ecological models of organism niches, offering improved flexibility for choosing predictive environmental and ecological data. This approach may help to identify regions at risk of disease, plan vector-control programs, and explore parasitic reservoir association. With this collected information, we have constructed a data base: CHAGMEX, available online in html format.

Reliability of stable carbon and oxygen isotope compositions of pedogenic needle fibre calcite as environmental indicators: examples from Western Europe.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope analyses were conducted on pedogenic needle fibre calcite (NFC) from seven sites in areas with roughly similar temperate climates in Western Europe, including the Swiss Jura Mountains, eastern and southern France, northern Wales, and north-eastern Spain. The δ(13)C values (-12.5 to-6.8 0/00 Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite (VPDB)) record the predominant C(3) vegetation cover at the sites. A good correlation was found between mean monthly climatic parameters (air temperature, number of frost days, humidity, and precipitation) and δ(18)O values (-7.8 to-3.40/00 VPDB) of all the NFC. Similar seasonal variations of δ(18)O values for monthly NFC samples from the Swiss sites and those of mean monthly δ(18)O values of local precipitation and meteorological data point out precipitation and preferential growth/or recrystallisation of the pedogenic needle calcite during dry seasons. These covariations indicate the potential of stable isotope compositions of preserved NFC in fossil soil horizons as a promising tool for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

First isolation of Cryptococcus gattii molecular type VGII and Cryptococcus neoformans molecular type VNI from environmental sources in the city of Belém, Pará, Brazil

Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii are important agents of meningoencephalitis in humans in the city of Belém. This clinical data suggests that the region may be a highly endemic area for the pathogenic Cryptococcus species within the state of Pará (PA), Northern Brazil. Preliminary analysis of 11 environmental samples from the city of Belém showed two positive locations, including a hollow of a kassod tree (Senna siamea) colonized simultaneously by C. gattii molecular type VGII and C. neoformans molecular type VNI, and a birdcage in a commercial aviary positive for C. neoformans, molecular type VNI. This is the first evidence of an environmental occurrence of molecular types VNI and VGII in PA.

A framework for assessing the scale of influence of environmental factors on ecological patterns

The distribution of living organisms, habitats and ecosystems is primarily driven by abiotic environmental factors that are spatially structured. Assessing the spatial structure of environmental factors, e.g., through spatial autocorrelation analyses (SAC), can thus help us understand their scale of influence on the distribution of organisms, habitats, and ecosystems. Yet SAC analyses of environmental factors are still rarely performed in biogeographic studies. Here, we describe a novel framework that combines SAC and statistical clustering to identify scales of spatial patterning of environmental factors, which can then be interpreted as the scales at which those factors influence the geographic distribution of biological and ecological features. We illustrate this new framework with datasets at different spatial or thematic resolutions. This framework is conceptually and statistically robust, providing a valuable approach to tackle a wide range of issues in ecological and environmental research and particularly when building predictors for ecological models. The new framework can significantly promote fundamental research on all spatially-structured ecological patterns. It can also foster research and application in such fields as global change ecology, conservation planning, and landscape management.

Regulation of free corticosterone and CBG capacity under different environmental conditions in altricial nestlings.

The concentration of circulating glucocorticoids is regulated in response to environmental and endogenous conditions. Total circulating corticosterone, the main glucocorticoid in birds, consists of a fraction which is bound to corticosterone-binding globulins (CBG) and a free fraction. There is increasing evidence that the environment modulates free corticosterone levels through varying the concentration of CBG, but experimental evidence is lacking. To test the hypothesis that the regulation of chronic stress in response to endogenous and environmental conditions involves variation in both corticosterone release and CBG capacity, we performed an experiment with barn owl (Tyto alba) nestlings in two different years with pronounced differences in environmental conditions and in nestlings experimentally fed ad libitum. In half of the individuals we implanted a corticosterone-releasing pellet to artificially increase corticosterone levels and in the other half we implanted a placebo pellet. We then repeatedly collected blood samples to measure the change in total and free corticosterone levels as well as CBG capacity. The increase in circulating total corticosterone after artificial corticosterone administration varied with environmental conditions and with the food regime of the nestlings. The highest total corticosterone levels were found in nestlings growing up in poor environmental conditions and the lowest in ad libitum fed nestlings. CBG was highest in the year with poor environmental conditions, so that, contrary to total corticosterone, free corticosterone levels were low under poor environmental conditions. When nestlings were fed ad libitum total corticosterone, CBG and free corticosterone did not increase when administering corticosterone. These results suggest that depending on the individual history an animal experienced during development the HPA-axis is regulated differently.

Sources of pre-analytical variations in yield of DNA extracted from blood samples: analysis of 50,000 DNA samples in EPIC.

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) is a long-term, multi-centric prospective study in Europe investigating the relationships between cancer and nutrition. This study has served as a basis for a number of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) and other types of genetic analyses. Over a period of 5 years, 52,256 EPIC DNA samples have been extracted using an automated DNA extraction platform. Here we have evaluated the pre-analytical factors affecting DNA yield, including anthropometric, epidemiological and technical factors such as center of subject recruitment, age, gender, body-mass index, disease case or control status, tobacco consumption, number of aliquots of buffy coat used for DNA extraction, extraction machine or procedure, DNA quantification method, degree of haemolysis and variations in the timing of sample processing. We show that the largest significant variations in DNA yield were observed with degree of haemolysis and with center of subject recruitment. Age, gender, body-mass index, cancer case or control status and tobacco consumption also significantly impacted DNA yield. Feedback from laboratories which have analyzed DNA with different SNP genotyping technologies demonstrate that the vast majority of samples (approximately 88%) performed adequately in different types of assays. To our knowledge this study is the largest to date to evaluate the sources of pre-analytical variations in DNA extracted from peripheral leucocytes. The results provide a strong evidence-based rationale for standardized recommendations on blood collection and processing protocols for large-scale genetic studies.

Delimitation of kala-azar risk areas in the district of Vaishali in Bihar (India) using a geo-environmental approach

Remote sensing and geographical information technologies were used to discriminate areas of high and low risk for contracting kala-azar or visceral leishmaniasis. Satellite data were digitally processed to generate maps of land cover and spectral indices, such as the normalised difference vegetation index and wetness index. To map estimated vector abundance and indoor climate data, local polynomial interpolations were used based on the weightage values. Attribute layers were prepared based on illiteracy and the unemployed proportion of the population and associated with village boundaries. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the relationship between environmental variables and disease incidence across the study area. The cell values for each input raster in the analysis were assigned values from the evaluation scale. Simple weighting/ratings based on the degree of favourable conditions for kala-azar transmission were used for all the variables, leading to geo-environmental risk model. Variables such as, land use/land cover, vegetation conditions, surface dampness, the indoor climate, illiteracy rates and the size of the unemployed population were considered for inclusion in the geo-environmental kala-azar risk model. The risk model was stratified into areas of "risk"and "non-risk"for the disease, based on calculation of risk indices. The described approach constitutes a promising tool for microlevel kala-azar surveillance and aids in directing control efforts.