Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

Model of Active Structural Monitoring and Decision-making for Dynamic Identification of Buildings, Monuments and Engineering Facilities

Structural monitoring and dynamic identification of the manmade and natural hazard objects is under consideration. Math model of testing object by set of weak stationary dynamic actions is offered. The response of structures to the set of signals is under processing for getting important information about object condition in high frequency band. Making decision procedure into active monitoring system is discussed as well. As an example the monitoring outcome of pillar-type monument is given.

Topographic visual analytics of multibeam dynamic SONAR data

This paper considers the problem of low-dimensional visualisation of very high dimensional information sources for the purpose of situation awareness in the maritime environment. In response to the requirement for human decision support aids to reduce information overload (and specifically, data amenable to inter-point relative similarity measures) appropriate to the below-water maritime domain, we are investigating a preliminary prototype topographic visualisation model. The focus of the current paper is on the mathematical problem of exploiting a relative dissimilarity representation of signals in a visual informatics mapping model, driven by real-world sonar systems. A realistic noise model is explored and incorporated into non-linear and topographic visualisation algorithms building on the approach of [9]. Concepts are illustrated using a real world dataset of 32 hydrophones monitoring a shallow-water environment in which targets are present and dynamic.

Understanding knowledge coordination dynamics in traditional and fast-response IT organizations

This research takes a dynamic view on the knowledge coordination process, aiming to explain how the process is affected by changes in the operating environment, from normal situations to emergencies in traditional and fast-response organizations, and why these changes occur. We first conceptualize the knowledge coordination process by distinguishing between four dimensions - what, when, how and who - that together capture the full scope of the knowledge coordination process. We use these dimensions to analyze knowledge coordination practices and the activities constituting these practices, in the IT functions of traditional and fast-response (military) organizations where we distinguish between "normal" and "emergency" operating conditions. Our findings indicate that (i) inter-relationships between knowledge coordination practices change under different operating conditions, and (ii) the patterns of change are different in traditional and fast-response organizations.

An incentivized auction based group-selling approach for demand response management in V2G systems

Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) system with efficient Demand Response Management (DRM) is critical to solve the problem of supplying electricity by utilizing surplus electricity available at EVs. An incentivilized DRM approach is studied to reduce the system cost and maintain the system stability. EVs are motivated with dynamic pricing determined by the group-selling based auction. In the proposed approach, a number of aggregators sit on the first level auction responsible to communicate with a group of EVs. EVs as bidders consider Quality of Energy (QoE) requirements and report interests and decisions on the bidding process coordinated by the associated aggregator. Auction winners are determined based on the bidding prices and the amount of electricity sold by the EV bidders. We investigate the impact of the proposed mechanism on the system performance with maximum feedback power constraints of aggregators. The designed mechanism is proven to have essential economic properties. Simulation results indicate the proposed mechanism can reduce the system cost and offer EVs significant incentives to participate in the V2G DRM operation.

Dynamic analysis of submerged microscale plates:the effects of acoustic radiation and viscous dissipation

The aim of this paper is to study the dynamic characteristics of micromechanical rectangular plates used as sensing elements in a viscous compressible fluid. A novel modelling procedure for the plate- fluid interaction problem is developed on the basis of linearized Navier-Stokes equations and noslip conditions. Analytical expression for the fluidloading impedance is obtained using a double Fourier transform approach. This modelling work provides us an analytical means to study the effects of inertial loading, acoustic radiation and viscous dissipation of the fluid acting on the vibration of microplates. The numerical simulation is conducted on microplates with different boundary conditions and fluids with different viscosities. The simulation results reveal that the acoustic radiation dominates the damping mechanism of the submerged microplates. It is also proved that microplates offer better sensitivities (Q-factors) than the conventional beam type microcantilevers beingmass sensing platforms in a viscous fluid environment. The frequency response features of microplates under highly viscous fluid loading are studied using the present model. The dynamics of the microplates with all edges clamped are less influenced by the highly viscous dissipation of the fluid than the microplates with other types of boundary conditions.

Neuroendocrine control of a dynamic communication signal

Multiple physiological systems regulate the electric communication signal of the weakly electric gymnotiform fish, Brachyhypopomus pinnicaudatus. Fish were injected with neuroendocrine probes which identified pharmacologically relevant serotonin (5-HT) receptors similar to the mammalian 5-HT1AR and 5-HT2AR. Peptide hormones of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal/interrenal axis also augment the electric waveform. These results indicate that the central serotonergic system interacts with the hypothalamic-pituitary-interrenal system to regulate communication signals in this species. The same neuroendocrine probes were tested in females before and after introducing androgens to examine the relationship between sex steroid hormones, the serotonergic system, melanocortin peptides, and EOD modulations. Androgens caused an increase in female B. pinnicaudatus responsiveness to other pharmacological challenges, particularly to the melanocortin peptide adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH). A forced social challenge paradigm was administered to determine if androgens are responsible for controlling the signal modulations these fish exhibit when they encounter conspecifics. Males and females responded similarly to this social challenge construct, however introducing androgens caused implanted females to produce more exaggerated responses. These results confirm that androgens enhance an individual's capacity to produce an exaggerated response to challenge, however another unidentified factor appears to regulate sex-specific behaviors in this species. These results suggest that the rapid electric waveform modulations B. pinnicaudatus produces in response to conspecifics are situation-specific and controlled by activation of different serotonin receptor types and the subsequent effect on release of pituitary hormones.

Endocrine regulation of dynamic communication signals in gymnotiform fish

Communication signals are shaped by the opposing selection pressures imposed by predators and mates. A dynamic signal might serve as an adaptive compromise between an inconspicuous signal that evades predators and an extravagant signal preferred by females. Such a signal has been described in the gymnotiform electric fish, Brachyhypopomus gauderio, which produces a sexually dimorphic electric organ discharge (EOD). The EOD varies on a circadian rhythm and in response to social cues. This signal plasticity is mediated by the slow action of androgens and rapid action of melanocortins. My dissertation research tested the hypotheses that (1) signal plasticity is related to sociality levels in gymnotiform species, and (2) differences in signal plasticity are regulated by differential sensitivity to androgen and melanocortin hormones. To assess the breadth of dynamic signaling within the order Gymnotiformes, I sampled 13 species from the five gymnotiform families. I recorded EODs to observe spontaneous signal oscillations after which I injected melanocortin hormones, saline control, or presented the fish with a conspecific. I showed that through the co-option of the ancient melanocortin pathway, gymnotiforms dynamically regulate EOD amplitude, spectral frequency, both, or neither. To investigate whether observed EOD plasticities are related to species-specific sociality I tested four species; two territorial, highly aggressive species, Gymnotus carapo and Apteronotus leptorhynchus, a highly gregarious species, Eigenmannia cf. virescens , and an intermediate short-lived species with a fluid social system, Brachyhypopomus gauderio. I examined the relationship between the androgens testosterone and 11-ketotestosterone, the melanocortin α-MSH, and their roles in regulating EOD waveform. I implanted all fish with androgen and blank silicone implants, and injected with α-MSH before and at the peak of implant effect. I found that waveforms of the most territorial and aggressive species were insensitive to hormone treatments; maintaining a static, stereotyped signal that preserves encoding of individual identity. Species with a fluid social system were most responsive to hormone treatments, exhibiting signals that reflect immediate condition and reproductive state. In conclusion, variation in gymnotiform signal plasticity is hormonally regulated and seems to reflect species-specific sociality.

Managing small-scale commercial fisheries for adaptive capacity: Insights from dynamic social-ecological drivers of change in Monterey Bay

Globally, small-scale fisheries (SSFs) are driven by climate, governance, and market factors of social-ecological change, presenting both challenges and opportunities. The ability of small-scale fishermen and buyers to adapt to changing conditions allows participants to survive economic or environmental disturbances and to benefit from optimal conditions. This study presented here identifies key large-scale factors that drive SSFs in California to shift focus among targets and that dictate long-term trends in landings. We use Elinor Ostrom’s Social-Ecological System (SES) framework to apply an interdisciplinary approach when identifying potential factors and when understanding the complex dynamics of these fisheries. We analyzed the interactions among Monterey Bay SSFs over the past four decades since the passage of the Magnuson Stevens Fisheries Conservation and Management Act of 1976. In this region, the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), and market squid (Loligo opalescens) fisheries comprise a tightly linked system where shifting focus among fisheries is a key element to adaptive capacity and reduced social and ecological vulnerability. Using a cluster analysis of landings, we identified four modes from 1974 to 2012 that were dominated by squid, sardine, anchovy, or lacked any dominance, enabling us to identify external drivers attributed to a change in fishery dominance during seven distinct transition points. Overall, we show that market and climate factors drive the transitions among dominance modes. Governance phases most dictated long-term trends in landings and are best viewed as a response to changes in perceived biomass and thus a proxy for biomass. Our findings suggest that globally, small-scale fishery managers should consider enabling shifts in effort among fisheries and retaining existing flexibility, as adaptive capacity is a critical determinant for social and ecological resilience.

Dynamic Behavior and Fatigue Life of Highway Bridges Due to Doubling Heavy Vehicles

An increase in the demand for the freight shipping in the United States has been predicted for the near future and Longer Combination Vehicles (LCVs), which can carry more loads in each trip, seem like a good solution for the problem. Currently, utilizing LCVs is not permitted in most states of the US and little research has been conducted on the effects of these heavy vehicles on the roads and bridges. In this research, efforts are made to study these effects by comparing the dynamic and fatigue effects of LCVs with more common trucks. Ten Steel and prestressed concrete bridges with span lengths ranging from 30’ to 140’ are designed and modeled using the grid system in MATLAB. Additionally, three more real bridges including two single span simply supported steel bridges and a three span continuous steel bridge are modeled using the same MATLAB code. The equations of motion of three LCVs as well as eight other trucks are derived and these vehicles are subjected to different road surface conditions and bumps on the roads and the designed and real bridges. By forming the bridge equations of motion using the mass, stiffness and damping matrices and considering the interaction between the truck and the bridge, the differential equations are solved using the ODE solver in MATLAB and the results of the forces in tires as well as the deflections and moments in the bridge members are obtained. The results of this study show that for most of the bridges, LCVs result in the smallest values of Dynamic Amplification Factor (DAF) whereas the Single Unit Trucks cause the highest values of DAF when traveling on the bridges. Also in most cases, the values of DAF are observed to be smaller than the 33% threshold suggested by the design code. Additionally, fatigue analysis of the bridges in this study confirms that by replacing the current truck traffic with higher capacity LCVs, in most cases, the remaining fatigue life of the bridge is only slightly decreased which means that taking advantage of these larger vehicles can be a viable option for decision makers.

Neuroendocrine control of a dynamic communication signal

Multiple physiological systems regulate the electric communication signal of the weakly electric gymnotiform fish, Brachyhypopomuspinnicaudatus. Fish were injected with neuroendocrine probes which identified pharmacologically relevant serotonin (5-HT) receptors similar to the mammalian 5-HT1AR and 5-HT2AR. Peptide hormones of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal/interrenal axis also augment the electric waveform. These results indicate that the central serotonergic system interacts with the hypothalamic-pituitaryinterrenal system to regulate communication signals in this species. The same neuroendocrine probes were tested in females before and after introducing androgens to examine the relationship between sex steroid hormones, the serotonergic system, melanocortin peptides, and EOD modulations. Androgens caused an increase in female B. pinnicaudatus responsiveness to other pharmacological challenges, particularly to the melanocortin peptide adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH). A forced social challenge paradigm was administered to determine if androgens are responsible for controlling the signal modulations these fish exhibit when they encounter conspecifics. Males and females responded similarly to this social challenge construct, however introducing androgens caused implanted females to produce more exaggerated responses. These results confirm that androgens enhance an individual's capacity to produce an exaggerated response to challenge, however another unidentified factor appears to regulate sex-specific behaviors in this species. These results suggest that the rapid electric waveform modulations B. pinnicaudatus produces in response to conspecifics are situation-specific and controlled by activation of different serotonin receptor types and the subsequent effect on release of pituitary hormones.

Dynamic safety analysis of managed pressure drilling operations

The exploration and development of oil and gas reserves located in harsh offshore environments are characterized with high risk. Some of these reserves would be uneconomical if produced using conventional drilling technology due to increased drilling problems and prolonged non-productive time. Seeking new ways to reduce drilling cost and minimize risks has led to the development of Managed Pressure Drilling techniques. Managed pressure drilling methods address the drawbacks of conventional overbalanced and underbalanced drilling techniques. As managed pressure drilling techniques are evolving, there are many unanswered questions related to safety and operating pressure regimes. Quantitative risk assessment techniques are often used to answer these questions. Quantitative risk assessment is conducted for the various stages of drilling operations – drilling ahead, tripping operation, casing and cementing. A diagnostic model for analyzing the rotating control device, the main component of managed pressure drilling techniques, is also studied. The logic concept of Noisy-OR is explored to capture the unique relationship between casing and cementing operations in leading to well integrity failure as well as its usage to model the critical components of constant bottom-hole pressure drilling technique of managed pressure drilling during tripping operation. Relevant safety functions and inherent safety principles are utilized to improve well integrity operations. Loss function modelling approach to enable dynamic consequence analysis is adopted to study blowout risk for real-time decision making. The aggregation of the blowout loss categories, comprising: production, asset, human health, environmental response and reputation losses leads to risk estimation using dynamically determined probability of occurrence. Lastly, various sub-models developed for the stages/sub-operations of drilling operations and the consequence modelling approach are integrated for a holistic risk analysis of drilling operations.

Comparison of threshold hydrologic response across northern catchments

Funded by Leverhulme Trust. Grant Number: F/00 152/AG

Performance of a single liquid column damper for the control of dynamic responses of a tension leg platform

Tuned liquid column dampers have been proved to be successful in mitigating the dynamic responses of civil infrastructure. There have been some recent applications of this concept on wind turbines and this passive control system can help to mitigate responses of offshore floating platforms and wave devices. The control of dynamic responses of these devices is important for reducing loads on structural elements and facilitating operations and maintenance (O&M) activities. This paper outlines the use of a tuned single liquid column damper for the control of a tension leg platform supported wind turbine. Theoretical studies were carried out and a scaled model was tested in a wave basin to assess the performance of the damper. The tests on the model presented in this paper correspond to a platform with a very low natural frequency for surge, sway and yaw motions. For practical purposes, it was not possible to tune the liquid damper exactly to this frequency. The consequent approach taken and the efficiency of such approach are presented in this paper. Responses to waves of a single frequency are investigated along with responses obtained from wave spectra characterising typical sea states. The extent of control is quantified using peak and root mean squared dynamic responses respectively. The tests present some guidelines and challenges for testing scaled devices in relation to including response control mechanisms. Additionally, the results provide a basis for dictating future research on tuned liquid column damper based control on floating platforms.

Monitoring of Dynamic Bridge Behaviour Using Digital Image Correlation

Bridges are a critical part of North America’s transportation network that need to be assessed frequently to inform bridge management decision making. Visual inspections are usually implemented for this purpose, during which inspectors must observe and report any excess displacements or vibrations. Unfortunately, these visual inspections are subjective and often highly variable and so a monitoring technology that can provide quantitative measurements to supplement inspections is needed. Digital Image Correlation (DIC) is a novel monitoring technology that uses digital images to measure displacement fields without any contact with the bridge. In this research, DIC and accelerometers were used to investigate the dynamic response of a railway bridge reported to experience large lateral displacements. Displacements were estimated using accelerometer measurements and were compared to DIC measurements. It was shown that accelerometers can provide reasonable estimates of displacement for zero-mean lateral displacements. By comparing measurements in the girder and in the piers, it was shown that for the bridge monitored, the large lateral displacements originated in the steel casting bearings positioned above the piers, and not in the piers themselves. The use of DIC for evaluating the effectiveness of rehabilitation of the LaSalle Causeway lift bridge in Kingston, Ontario was also investigated. Vertical displacements were measured at midspan and at the lifting end of the bridge during a static test and under dynamic live loading. The bridge displacements were well within the operating limits, however a gap at the lifting end of the bridge was identified. Rehabilitation of the bridge was conducted and by comparing measurements before and after rehabilitation, it was shown that the gap was successfully closed. Finally, DIC was used to monitor the midspan vertical and lateral displacements in a monitoring campaign of five steel rail bridges. DIC was also used to evaluate the effectiveness of structural rehabilitation of the lateral bracing of a bridge. Simple finite element models are developed using DIC measurements of displacement. Several lessons learned throughout this monitoring campaign are discussed in the hope of aiding future researchers.