Thresholds for error probability measures of business process models

The quality of conceptual business process models is highly relevant for the design of corresponding information systems. In particular, a precise measurement of model characteristics can be beneficial from a business perspective, helping to save costs thanks to early error detection. This is just as true from a software engineering point of view. In this latter case, models facilitate stakeholder communication and software system design. Research has investigated several proposals as regards measures for business process models, from a rather correlational perspective. This is helpful for understanding, for example size and complexity as general driving forces of error probability. Yet, design decisions usually have to build on thresholds, which can reliably indicate that a certain counter-action has to be taken. This cannot be achieved only by providing measures; it requires a systematic identification of effective and meaningful thresholds. In this paper, we derive thresholds for a set of structural measures for predicting errors in conceptual process models. To this end, we use a collection of 2,000 business process models from practice as a means of determining thresholds, applying an adaptation of the ROC curves method. Furthermore, an extensive validation of the derived thresholds was conducted by using 429 EPC models from an Australian financial institution. Finally, significant thresholds were adapted to refine existing modeling guidelines in a quantitative way.

Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian sequentially designed experiments for discrete data

In this paper we present a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian sequential experimental design applied to generalised non-linear models for discrete data. The approach is computationally convenient in that the information of newly observed data can be incorporated through a simple re-weighting step. We also consider a flexible parametric model for the stimulus-response relationship together with a newly developed hybrid design utility that can produce more robust estimates of the target stimulus in the presence of substantial model and parameter uncertainty. The algorithm is applied to hypothetical clinical trial or bioassay scenarios. In the discussion, potential generalisations of the algorithm are suggested to possibly extend its applicability to a wide variety of scenarios

Exploring regional differences in Chinese consumer acceptance of new mobile technology : a qualitative study

This study examines consumer adoption of 3G mobile technology in China. The qualitative study involved 45 in-depth interviews undertaken in three major Chinese cities to explore the beliefs and attitudes which determine Chinese consumers’ acceptance of the mobile technological innovation. The findings are compared and contrasted against those reported in Western studies. The variations underpinning adoption of 3G between consumers in the three regional cities were identified. Specifically, it was found that the regions differed in terms of the relative importance of the identified adoption determinants, such as perceived social outcomes for using the innovation and the effects of social influence on the adoption. These findings provide subtle insight into the nature of Chinese consumers’ responses to new mobile technologies and a better understanding of variations among regional Chinese consumers.

Theoretical and numerical investigation of bending properties of Cu nanowires

Based on the AFM-bending experiments, a molecular dynamics (MD) bending simulation model is established which could accurately account for the full spectrum of the mechanical properties of NWs in a double clamped beam configuration, ranging from elasticity to plasticity and failure. It is found that, loading rate exerts significant influence to the mechanical behaviours of nanowires (NWs). Specifically, a loading rate lower than 10 m/s is found reasonable for a homogonous bending deformation. Both loading rate and potential between the tip and the NW are found to play an important role in the adhesive phenomenon. The force versus displacement (F-d) curve from MD simulation is highly consistent in shapes with that from experiments. Symmetrical F-d curves during loading and unloading processes are observed, which reveal the linear-elastic and non-elastic bending deformation of NWs. The typical bending induced tensile-compressive features are observed. Meanwhile, the simulation results are excellently fitted by the classical Euler-Bernoulli beam theory with axial effect. It is concluded that, axial tensile force becomes crucial in bending deformation when the beam size is down to nanoscale for double clamped NWs. In addition, we find shorter NWs will have an earlier yielding and a larger yielding force. Mechanical properties (Young’s modulus & yield strength) obtained from both bending and tensile deformations are found comparable with each other. Specifically, the modulus is essentially similar under these two loading methods, while the yield strength during bending is observed larger than that during tension.

Tracking the defining moments of crisis process and practice

Crisis holds the potential for profound change in organizations and industries. The past 50 years of crisis management highlight key shifts in crisis practice, creating opportunities for multiple theories and research tracks. Defining crises such as Tylenol, Exxon Valdez, and September 11 terrorist attacks have influenced or challenged the principles of best practice of crisis communication in public relations. This study traces the development of crisis process and practice by identifying shifts in crisis research and models and mapping these against key management theories and practices. The findings define three crisis domains: crisis planning, building and testing predictive models, and mapping and measuring external environmental influences. These crisis domains mirror but lag the evolution of management theory, suggesting challenges for researchers to reshape the research agenda to close the gap and lead the next stage of development in the field of crisis communication for effective organizational outcomes.

Effective shear modulus approach for two dimensional solids and plate bending problems by meshless point collocation method

For the analysis of material nonlinearity, an effective shear modulus approach based on the strain control method is proposed in this paper by using point collocation method. Hencky’s total deformation theory is used to evaluate the effective shear modulus, Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, which are treated as spatial field variables. These effective properties are obtained by the strain controlled projection method in an iterative manner. To evaluate the second order derivatives of shape function at the field point, the radial basis function (RBF) in the local support domain is used. Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method and comparisons have been made with analytical solutions and the finite element method (ABAQUS).

Vibrational spectroscopic study of the copper silicate mineral kinoite Ca2Cu2Si3O10(OH)4

Kinoite Ca2Cu2Si3O10(OH)4 is a mineral named after a Jesuit missionary. Raman and infrared spectroscopy have been used to characterise the structure of the mineral. The Raman spectrum is characterised by an intense sharp band at 847 cm-1 assigned to the ν1 (A1g) symmetric stretching vibration. Intense sharp bands at 951, 994 and 1000 cm-1 are assigned to the ν3 (Eu, A2u, B1g) SiO4 antisymmetric stretching vibrations. Multiple ν2 SiO4 vibrational modes indicate strong distortion of the SiO4 tetrahedra. Multiple CaO and CuO stretching bands are observed. Raman spectroscopy confirmed by infrared spectroscopy clearly shows that hydroxyl units are involved in the kinoite structure. Based upon the infrared spectra, it is proposed that water is also involved in the kinoite structure. Based upon vibrational spectroscopy, the formula of kinoite is defined as Ca2Cu2Si3O10(OH)4•xH2O.

An improved boundary layer scaling with ramp heating on a sloping plate

A scaling analysis for the natural convection boundary layer adjacent to an inclined semi-infinite plate subject to a non-instantaneous heating in the form of an imposed wall temperature which increases linearly up to a prescribed steady value over a prescribed time is reported. The development of the boundary layer flow from start-up to a steady-state has been described based on scaling analyses and verified by numerical simulations. The analysis reveals that, if the period of temperature growth on the wall is sufficiently long, the boundary layer reaches a quasi-steady mode before the growth of the temperature is completed. In this mode the thermal boundary layer at first grows in thickness and then contracts with increasing time. However, if the imposed wall temperature growth period is sufficiently short, the boundary layer develops differently, but after the wall temperature growth is completed, the boundary layer develops as though the startup had been instantaneous. The steady state values of the boundary layer for both cases are ultimately the same.

Development and validation of an expedited 10g protein counter (EP-10) for dietary protein intake quantification

Precise protein quantification is essential in clinical dietetics, particularly in the management of renal, burn and malnourished patients. The EP-10 was developed to expedite the estimation of dietary protein for nutritional assessment and recommendation. The main objective of this study was to compare the validity and efficacy of the EP-10 with the American Dietetic Association’s “Exchange List for Meal Planning” (ADA-7g) in quantifying dietary protein intake, against computerised nutrient analysis (CNA). Protein intake of 197 food records kept by healthy adult subjects in Singapore was determined thrice using three different methods – (1) EP-10, (2) ADA-7g and (3) CNA using SERVE program (Version 4.0). Assessments using the EP-10 and ADA-7g were performed by two assessors in a blind crossover manner while a third assessor performed the CNA. All assessors were blind to each other’s results. Time taken to assess a subsample (n=165) using the EP-10 and ADA-7g was also recorded. Mean difference in protein intake quantification when compared to the CNA was statistically non-significant for the EP-10 (1.4 ± 16.3 g, P = .239) and statistically significant for the ADA-7g (-2.2 ± 15.6 g, P = .046). Both the EP-10 and ADA-7g had clinically acceptable agreement with the CNA as determined via Bland-Altman plots, although it was found that EP-10 had a tendency to overestimate with protein intakes above 150 g. The EP-10 required significantly less time for protein intake quantification than the ADA-7g (mean time of 65 ± 36 seconds vs. 111 ± 40 seconds, P < .001). The EP-10 and ADA-7g are valid clinical tools for protein intake quantification in an Asian context, with EP-10 being more time efficient. However, a dietician’s discretion is needed when the EP-10 is used on protein intakes above 150g.

Effects of surgical joint destabilization on load sharing between ligamentous structures in the thoracic spine : a finite element investigation

Background: In vitro investigations have demonstrated the importance of the ribcage in stabilising the thoracic spine. Surgical alterations of the ribcage may change load-sharing patterns in the thoracic spine. Computer models are used in this study to explore the effect of surgical disruption of the rib-vertebrae connections on ligament load-sharing in the thoracic spine. Methods: A finite element model of a T7-8 motion segment, including the T8 rib, was developed using CT-derived spinal anatomy for the Visible Woman. Both the intact motion segment and the motion segment with four successive stages of destabilization (discectomy and removal of right costovertebral joint, right costotransverse joint and left costovertebral joint) were analysed for a 2000Nmm moment in flexion/extension, lateral bending and axial rotation. Joint rotational moments were compared with existing in vitro data and a detailed investigation of the load sharing between the posterior ligaments carried out. Findings: The simulated motion segment demonstrated acceptable agreement with in vitro data at all stages of destabilization. Under lateral bending and axial rotation, the costovertebral joints were of critical importance in resisting applied moments. In comparison to the intact joint, anterior destabilization increases the total moment contributed by the posterior ligaments. Interpretation: Surgical removal of the costovertebral joints may lead to excessive rotational motion in a spinal joint, increasing the risk of overload and damage to the remaining ligaments. The findings of this study are particularly relevant for surgical procedures involving rib head resection, such as some techniques for scoliosis deformity correction.

Managing large collections of business process models - Current techniques and challenges

Nowadays, business process management is an important approach for managing organizations from an operational perspective. As a consequence, it is common to see organizations develop collections of hundreds or even thousands of business process models. Such large collections of process models bring new challenges and provide new opportunities, as the knowledge that they encapsulate requires to be properly managed. Therefore, a variety of techniques for managing large collections of business process models is being developed. The goal of this paper is to provide an overview of the management techniques that currently exist, as well as the open research challenges that they pose.

A review of commuter exposure to ultrafine particles and its health effects

Ultrafine particles (UFPs, <100 nm) are produced in large quantities by vehicular combustion and are implicated in causing several adverse human health effects. Recent work has suggested that a large proportion of daily UFP exposure may occur during commuting. However, the determinants, variability and transport mode-dependence of such exposure are not well-understood. The aim of this review was to address these knowledge gaps by distilling the results of ‘in-transit’ UFP exposure studies performed to-date, including studies of health effects. We identified 47 exposure studies performed across 6 transport modes: automobile, bicycle, bus, ferry, rail and walking. These encompassed approximately 3000 individual trips where UFP concentrations were measured. After weighting mean UFP concentrations by the number of trips in which they were collected, we found overall mean UFP concentrations of 3.4, 4.2, 4.5, 4.7, 4.9 and 5.7 × 10^4 particles cm^-3 for the bicycle, bus, automobile, rail, walking and ferry modes, respectively. The mean concentration inside automobiles travelling through tunnels was 3.0 × 10^5 particles cm^-3. While the mean concentrations were indicative of general trends, we found that the determinants of exposure (meteorology, traffic parameters, route, fuel type, exhaust treatment technologies, cabin ventilation, filtration, deposition, UFP penetration) exhibited marked variability and mode-dependence, such that it is not necessarily appropriate to rank modes in order of exposure without detailed consideration of these factors. Ten in-transit health effects studies have been conducted and their results indicate that UFP exposure during commuting can elicit acute effects in both healthy and health-compromised individuals. We suggest that future work should focus on further defining the contribution of in-transit UFP exposure to total UFP exposure, exploring its specific health effects and investigating exposures in the developing world. Keywords: air pollution; transport modes; acute health effects; travel; public transport

A two-stage decision model for information filtering

Information mismatch and overload are two fundamental issues influencing the effectiveness of information filtering systems. Even though both term-based and pattern-based approaches have been proposed to address the issues, neither of these approaches alone can provide a satisfactory decision for determining the relevant information. This paper presents a novel two-stage decision model for solving the issues. The first stage is a novel rough analysis model to address the overload problem. The second stage is a pattern taxonomy mining model to address the mismatch problem. The experimental results on RCV1 and TREC filtering topics show that the proposed model significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art filtering systems.

Seasonality of suicide in Shandong China, 1991–2009 : associations with gender, age, area and methods of suicide

Backgrounds Whether suicide in China has significant seasonal variations is unclear. The aim of this study is to examine the seasonality of suicide in Shandong China and to assess the associations of suicide seasonality with gender, residence, age and methods of suicide. Methods Three types of tests (Chi-square, Edwards' T and Roger's Log method) were used to detect the seasonality of the suicide data extracted from the official mortality data of Shandong Disease Surveillance Point (DSP) system. Peak/low ratios (PLRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to indicate the magnitude of seasonality. Results A statistically significant seasonality with a single peak in suicide rates in spring and early summer, and a dip in winter was observed, which remained relatively consistent over years. Regardless of gender, suicide seasonality was more pronounced in rural areas, younger age groups and for non-violent methods, in particular, self-poisoning by pesticide. Conclusions There are statistically significant seasonal variations of completed suicide for both men and women in Shandong, China. Differences exist between residence (urban/rural), age groups and suicide methods. Results appear to support a sociological explanation of suicide seasonality.

A Bayesian analysis of an agricultural field trial with three spatial dimensions

Modern technology now has the ability to generate large datasets over space and time. Such data typically exhibit high autocorrelations over all dimensions. The field trial data motivating the methods of this paper were collected to examine the behaviour of traditional cropping and to determine a cropping system which could maximise water use for grain production while minimising leakage below the crop root zone. They consist of moisture measurements made at 15 depths across 3 rows and 18 columns, in the lattice framework of an agricultural field. Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) models are used to account for local site correlations. Conditional autoregressive models have not been widely used in analyses of agricultural data. This paper serves to illustrate the usefulness of these models in this field, along with the ease of implementation in WinBUGS, a freely available software package. The innovation is the fitting of separate conditional autoregressive models for each depth layer, the ‘layered CAR model’, while simultaneously estimating depth profile functions for each site treatment. Modelling interest also lay in how best to model the treatment effect depth profiles, and in the choice of neighbourhood structure for the spatial autocorrelation model. The favoured model fitted the treatment effects as splines over depth, and treated depth, the basis for the regression model, as measured with error, while fitting CAR neighbourhood models by depth layer. It is hierarchical, with separate onditional autoregressive spatial variance components at each depth, and the fixed terms which involve an errors-in-measurement model treat depth errors as interval-censored measurement error. The Bayesian framework permits transparent specification and easy comparison of the various complex models compared.