DECOMPOSITION OF REGRESSION ESTIMATORS TO EXPLORE THE INFLUENCE OF "UNMEASURED" TIME-VARYING CONFOUNDERS

In environmental epidemiology, exposure X and health outcome Y vary in space and time. We present a method to diagnose the possible influence of unmeasured confounders U on the estimated effect of X on Y and to propose several approaches to robust estimation. The idea is to use space and time as proxy measures for the unmeasured factors U. We start with the time series case where X and Y are continuous variables at equally-spaced times and assume a linear model. We define matching estimator b(u)s that correspond to pairs of observations with specific lag u. Controlling for a smooth function of time, St, using a kernel estimator is roughly equivalent to estimating the association with a linear combination of the b(u)s with weights that involve two components: the assumptions about the smoothness of St and the normalized variogram of the X process. When an unmeasured confounder U exists, but the model otherwise correctly controls for measured confounders, the excess variation in b(u)s is evidence of confounding by U. We use the plot of b(u)s versus lag u, lagged-estimator-plot (LEP), to diagnose the influence of U on the effect of X on Y. We use appropriate linear combination of b(u)s or extrapolate to b(0) to obtain novel estimators that are more robust to the influence of smooth U. The methods are extended to time series log-linear models and to spatial analyses. The LEP plot gives us a direct view of the magnitude of the estimators for each lag u and provides evidence when models did not adequately describe the data.

Increased NoGo-anteriorisation in first-episode schizophrenia patients during Continuous Performance Test

OBJECTIVE: NoGo-stimuli during a Continuous Performance Test (CPT) activate prefrontal brain structures such as the anterior cingulate gyrus and lead to an anteriorisation of the positive electrical field of the NoGo-P300 relative to the Go-P300, so-called NoGo-anteriorisation (NGA). NGA during CPT is regarded as a neurophysiological standard index for cognitive response control. While it is known that patients with chronic schizophrenia exhibit a significant reduction in NGA, it is unclear whether this also occurs in patients undergoing their first-episode. Thus, the aim of the present study was to determine NGA in a group of patients with first-episode schizophrenia by utilizing a CPT paradigm. METHODS: Eighteen patients with first-episode schizophrenia and 18 matched healthy subjects were investigated electrophysiologically during a cued CPT, and the parameters of the Go- and NoGo-P300 were determined using microstate analysis. Low resolution tomography analysis (LORETA) was used for source determination. RESULTS: Due to a more posterior Go- and a more anterior NoGo-centroid, NGA was greater in patients than in healthy controls. LORETA indicated the same sources for both groups after Go-stimuli, but a more anterior source in patients after NoGo-stimuli. In patients P300-amplitude responses to both Go- and NoGo-stimuli were decreased, and P300-latency to NoGo-stimuli was increased. After the Go-stimuli false reactions and reaction times were increased in patients. CONCLUSIONS: Attention was reduced in patients with first-episode schizophrenia, as indicated by more false reactions, prolongation of reaction time, P300-latencies and by a decrease in P300-amplitude. Significantly however, the NGA and prefrontal LORETA-sources indicate intact prefrontal brain structures in first-episode schizophrenia patients. Previously described changes in this indicator of prefrontal function may be related to a progressive decay in chronic schizophrenia. SIGNIFICANCE: The results support the idea of a possible new biological marker of first episode psychosis, which may be a useful parameter for the longitudinal measurement of changing prefrontal brain function in a single schizophrenia patient.

Effects of forest management and time on herbaceous species dynamics in the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

The herbaceous layer is a dynamic layer in a forest ecosystem which often contains the highest species richness in northern temperate forests. Few long-term studies exist in northern hardwood forests with consistent management practices to observe herbaceous species dynamics. The Ford Forest (Michigan Technological University) reached its 50th year of management during the winter of 2008-2009. Herbaceous species were sampled during the summers pre- and post-harvest. Distinct herbaceous communities developed in the 13-cm diameter-limit treatment and the uncut control. After the harvest, the diameter-limit treatments had herbaceous communities more similar to the 13-cm diameter-limit treatment than the uncut control; the herbaceous layer contained more exotic and early successional species. Fifty years of continuous management changed the herbaceous community especially in the diameter-limit treatments. Sites used in the development of habitat classification systems based on the presence and absence of certain herbaceous species can also be used to monitor vegetation change over time. The Guide to Forest Communities and Habitat Types of Michigan was developed to aid forest managers in understanding the potential productivity of a stand, and often aid in the development of ecologically-based forest management practices. Subsets of plots used to create the Western Upper Peninsula Guide were resampled after 10 years. During the resampling, both spring and summer vegetation were sampled and earthworm populations were estimated through liquid extraction. Spring sampling observed important spring ephemerals missed during summer sampling. More exotic species were present during the summer 2010 sampling than the summer 2000 sampling. Invasive European earthworms were also observed at all sample locations in all habitat types; earthworm densities increased with increasing habitat richness. To ensure the accuracy of the guide book, plots should be monitored to see how herbaceous communities are changing. These plots also offer unique opportunities to monitor for invasive species and the effects of a changing climate.

Disagreements in meta-analyses using outcomes measured on continuous or rating scales: observer agreement study

OBJECTIVE: To study the inter-observer variation related to extraction of continuous and numerical rating scale data from trial reports for use in meta-analyses. DESIGN: Observer agreement study. DATA SOURCES: A random sample of 10 Cochrane reviews that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD), the protocols for the reviews and the trial reports (n=45) were retrieved. DATA EXTRACTION: Five experienced methodologists and five PhD students independently extracted data from the trial reports for calculation of the first SMD result in each review. The observers did not have access to the reviews but to the protocols, where the relevant outcome was highlighted. The agreement was analysed at both trial and meta-analysis level, pairing the observers in all possible ways (45 pairs, yielding 2025 pairs of trials and 450 pairs of meta-analyses). Agreement was defined as SMDs that differed less than 0.1 in their point estimates or confidence intervals. RESULTS: The agreement was 53% at trial level and 31% at meta-analysis level. Including all pairs, the median disagreement was SMD=0.22 (interquartile range 0.07-0.61). The experts agreed somewhat more than the PhD students at trial level (61% v 46%), but not at meta-analysis level. Important reasons for disagreement were differences in selection of time points, scales, control groups, and type of calculations; whether to include a trial in the meta-analysis; and data extraction errors made by the observers. In 14 out of the 100 SMDs calculated at the meta-analysis level, individual observers reached different conclusions than the originally published review. CONCLUSIONS: Disagreements were common and often larger than the effect of commonly used treatments. Meta-analyses using SMDs are prone to observer variation and should be interpreted with caution. The reliability of meta-analyses might be improved by having more detailed review protocols, more than one observer, and statistical expertise.

Neer Award 2007: Reversion of structural muscle changes caused by chronic rotator cuff tears using continuous musculotendinous traction. An experimental study in sheep

HYPOTHESIS: Chronic rotator cuff tears are associated with irreversible architectural muscle changes and a high rate of repair failure. The changes observed in man and their irreversibility with a single stage repair can be reproduced in sheep. It was the purpose of this experiment to test the hypothesis that slow, continuous elongation of a retracted musculotendinous unit allows reversal of the currently irreversible structural muscle changes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The infraspinatus tendon of 12 sheep was released using a greater tuberosity osteotomy and allowed to retract for 4 months. Then, a new device was mounted on the scapular spine and used to extend the infraspinatus muscuculotendinous unit transcutaneously by 1 mm per day. Thereafter, the tendon was repaired back to the greater tuberosity. We assessed the muscular architecture using magnetic resonance imaging, macroscopic dissection, histology, and electron microscopy. Fatty infiltration (in Hounsfield units 1/4 HU) and muscular cross-sectional area (in % of the control side) were monitored with computed tomography at tendon release, initiation of elongation, repair, and at sacrifice. RESULTS: Sixteen weeks after tendon release, the mean tendon retraction was 29 +/- 6 mm (14% of original length, P = .008). In 8 sheep, elongation was achieved as planned (group I), but in 4, the elongation failed technically (group II). The mean traction time was 24 +/- 6 days with a mean traction distance of 19 +/- 4 mm. At sacrifice, the mean pennation angle in the infraspinatus of group I was not different from the control side (29.8 degrees +/-7.5 degrees vs. 30 degrees +/-6 degrees , P = .575). In group II, the pennation angle had increased from 30 degrees +/-6 degrees to 55 degrees +/-14 degrees (P = .035). There was no fatty infiltration at the time of tendon release. After retraction, there was a significant increase in fatty infiltration of the infraspinatus muscle and a decrease of its cross-sectional area to 57% of the contralateral side (P = .0001). During traction, the degree of fatty infiltration remained unchanged (36 HU to 38 HU, P = .381), and atrophy improved to a muscle square area of 78% of the contralateral side (P = .0001) in group I. In group II, an increase of fatty infiltration was measured from 36 HU to 28 HU; however, this increase was not significant (P = .144). Atrophy did not change in group II (57-55%, P = .946). At sacrifice, the remaining muscle mass was 64% in group I and 46% in group II (P = .019). DISCUSSION: Our preliminary results document, that continuous elongation of a retracted, fatty infiltrated and atrophied musculotendinous unit is technically feasible. CONCLUSION: In the sheep, continuous elongation can lead to restoration of normal muscle architecture, to partial reversal of muscle atrophy, and to arrest of the progression of fatty infiltration. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Basic science level 2; Prospective comparative therapeutic study.

Treatment of acute renal failure in the intensive care unit: lower costs by intermittent dialysis than continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration

Intermittent and continuous renal replacement therapies (RRTs) are available for the treatment of acute renal failure (ARF) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Although at present there are no adequately powered survival studies, available data suggest that both methods are equal with respect to patient outcome. Therefore, cost comparison between techniques is important for selecting the modality. Expenditures were prospectively assessed as a secondary end point during a controlled, randomized trial comparing intermittent hemodialysis (IHD) with continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration (CVVHDF). The outcome of the primary end points of this trial, that is, ICU and in-hospital mortality, has been previously published. One hundred twenty-five patients from a Swiss university hospital ICU were randomized either to CVVHDF or IHD. Out of these, 42 (CVVHDF) and 34 (IHD) were available for cost analysis. Patients' characteristics, delivered dialysis dose, duration of stay in the ICU or hospital, mortality rates, and recovery of renal function were not different between the two groups. Detailed 24-h time and material consumption protocols were available for 369 (CVVHDF) and 195 (IHD) treatment days. The mean daily duration of CVVHDF was 19.5 +/- 3.2 h/day, resulting in total expenditures of Euro 436 +/- 21 (21% for human resources and 79% for technical devices). For IHD (mean 3.0 +/- 0.4 h/treatment), the costs were lower (Euro 268 +/- 26), with a larger proportion for human resources (45%). Nursing time spent for CVVHDF was 113 +/- 50 min, and 198 +/- 63 min per IHD treatment. Total costs for RRT in ICU patients with ARF were lower when treated with IHD than with CVVHDF, and have to be taken into account for the selection of the method of RRT in ARF on the ICU.

Triangle-programmed coulometric nanotitrations completed by continuous flow with potentiometric detection

Coulometric nanotitrations were realized in a microchannel system using a continuous-flow titration technique with a triangle current-time profile. Redox and acid-base titrations were carried out on Fe(II) and nitric acid samples, respectively, with the same nanotitrator device. A linear relation between the concentration and the coulometric current transferred to the solution was found. The advantages of this universally applicable nanotitrator are fast response, low sample volume, high sensitivity, and high reproducibility as well as the convenience of handling an automated analyzer of the flow-through type.

Continuous monitoring of bovine spongiform encephalopathy rapid test performance by weak positive tissue controls and quality control charts

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) rapid tests and routine BSE-testing laboratories underlie strict regulations for approval. Due to the lack of BSE-positive control samples, however, full assay validation at the level of individual test runs and continuous monitoring of test performance on-site is difficult. Most rapid tests use synthetic prion protein peptides, but it is not known to which extend they reflect the assay performance on field samples, and whether they are sufficient to indicate on-site assay quality problems. To address this question we compared the test scores of the provided kit peptide controls to those of standardized weak BSE-positive tissue samples in individual test runs as well as continuously over time by quality control charts in two widely used BSE rapid tests. Our results reveal only a weak correlation between the weak positive tissue control and the peptide control scores. We identified kit-lot related shifts in the assay performances that were not reflected by the peptide control scores. Vice versa, not all shifts indicated by the peptide control scores indeed reflected a shift in the assay performance. In conclusion these data highlight that the use of the kit peptide controls for continuous quality control purposes may result in unjustified rejection or acceptance of test runs. However, standardized weak positive tissue controls in combination with Shewhart-CUSUM control charts appear to be reliable in continuously monitoring assay performance on-site to identify undesired deviations.

Medetomidine continuous rate intravenous infusion in horses in which surgical anaesthesia is maintained with isoflurane and intravenous infusions of lidocaine and ketamine

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate medetomidine as a continuous rate infusion (CRI) in horses in which anaesthesia is maintained with isoflurane and CRIs of ketamine and lidocaine. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, blinded clinical trial. ANIMALS: Forty horses undergoing elective surgery. METHODS: After sedation and induction, anaesthesia was maintained with isoflurane. Mechanical ventilation was employed. All horses received lidocaine (1.5 mg kg(-1) initially, then 2 mg kg(-1) hour(-1)) and ketamine (2 mg kg(-1) hour(-1)), both CRIs reducing to 1.5 mg kg(-1) hour(-1) after 50 minutes. Horses in group MILK received a medetomidine CRI of 3.6 mug kg(-1) hour(-1), reducing after 50 minutes to 2.75 mug kg(-1) hour(-1), and horses in group ILK an equal volume of saline. Mean arterial pressure (MAP) was maintained above 70 mmHg using dobutamine. End-tidal concentration of isoflurane (FE'ISO) was adjusted as necessary to maintain surgical anaesthesia. Group ILK received medetomidine (3 mug kg(-1) ) at the end of the procedure. Recovery was evaluated. Differences between groups were analysed using Mann-Whitney, Chi-Square and anova tests as relevant. Significance was taken as p < 0.05. RESULTS: FE'ISO required to maintain surgical anaesthesia in group MILK decreased with time, becoming significantly less than that in group ILK by 45 minutes. After 60 minutes, median (IQR) FE'ISO in MILK was 0.65 (0.4-1.0) %, and in ILK was 1 (0.62-1.2) %. Physiological parameters did not differ between groups, but group MILK required less dobutamine to support MAP. Total recovery times were similar and recovery quality good in both groups. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: A CRI of medetomidine given to horses which were also receiving CRIs of lidocaine and ketamine reduced the concentration of isoflurane necessary to maintain satisfactory anaesthesia for surgery, and reduced the dobutamine required to maintain MAP. No further sedation was required to provide a calm recovery.

The influence of a continuous rate infusion of dexmedetomidine on the nociceptive withdrawal reflex and temporal summation during isoflurane anaesthesia in dogs

Objective To examine the influence of a low dose dexmedetomidine infusion on the nociceptive withdrawal reflex and temporal summation in dogs during isoflurane anaesthesia. Study design Prospective experimental blinded cross-over study. Animals Eight healthy mixed breed dogs, body weight Mean +/- SD 26.5 +/- 8.4 kg and age 25 +/- 16 months. Methods Anaesthesia was induced with propofol and maintained with isoflurane (Fe'ISO 1.3%) delivered in oxygen and air. After stabilization, baseline recordings (time 0) were obtained, then a dexmedetomidine bolus (1 mug kg(-1) IV) followed by a continuous rate infusion (1 mug kg(-1) hour(-1) ) or saline placebo were administered. At times 10, 30 and 60 minutes after the initial bolus, electrical stimulations of increasing intensity were applied over the lateral plantar digital nerve, and administered both as single and as repeated stimuli. The resulting reflex responses were recorded using electromyography. Data were analysed using a multivariable linear regression model and a Kruskal Wallis test for single stimulation data, and repeated measures anova and paired t-test for repeated stimulation data. Results The AUC for the stimulus-response curves after single stimulation were similar for both treatments at time 0. At times 10, 30 and 60 the AUCs for the stimulus-response curves were significantly lower with dexmedetomidine treatment than with placebo. Temporal summation was evident in both treatments at times 0, 10, 30 and 60 starting from a stimulation intensity of 10 mA. The magnitude of temporal summation was smaller in dexmedetomidine than in placebo treated dogs at time 10, 30 and 60, but not at time 0. Conclusions During isoflurane anaesthesia, low dose dexmedetomidine suppresses the nociceptive reflex responses after single and repeated electrical stimulation. Clinical relevance This experimental study confirms previous reports on its peri-operative efficacy under clinical conditions, and further indicates that dexmedetomidine might reduce the risk of post-operative chronic pain development.

Implantation of the continuous flow HeartWare(R) left ventricular assist device

Recent outstanding clinical advances with new mechanical circulatory systems have led to additional strategies in the treatment of end-stage heart failure. Heart transplantation can be postponed and for certain patients even replaced by smaller implantable left ventricular assist devices (LVADs). Mechanical support of the failing left ventricle enables appropriate haemodynamic stabilization and recovery of secondary organ failure, often seen in these severely ill patients. These new devices may be of great help to bridge patients until a suitable cardiac allograft is available but are also discussed as definitive treatment for patients who do not qualify for transplantation. Main indications for LVAD implantation are bridge to recovery, bridge to transplantation or destination therapy. An LVAD may be an important tool for patients with an expected prolonged period on the waiting list, for instance those with blood group O or B, with high or low body weight and those with potentially reversible secondary organ failure and pulmonary artery hypertension. However, LVAD implantation means an additional heart operation with inherent perioperative risks and complications during the waiting period. Finally, cardiac transplantation in patients with prior implantation of an LVAD represents a surgical challenge. The care of patients after the implantation of miniaturized LVADs, such as the HeartWare® system, seems to be easier than following pulsatile devices. The explantation of such devices at the time of transplantation is technically more comfortable than after HeartMate II implantation.

Time courses and quantitative analysis of atrial fibrillation episode number and duration after circular plus linear left atrial lesions: trigger elimination or substrate modification: early or delayed cure?

OBJECTIVES We sought to analyze the time course of atrial fibrillation (AF) episodes before and after circular plus linear left atrial ablation and the percentage of patients with complete freedom from AF after ablation by using serial seven-day electrocardiograms (ECGs). BACKGROUND The curative treatment of AF targets the pathophysiological corner stones of AF (i.e., the initiating triggers and/or the perpetuation of AF). The pathophysiological complexity of both may not result in an "all-or-nothing" response but may modify number and duration of AF episodes. METHODS In patients with highly symptomatic AF, circular plus linear ablation lesions were placed around the left and right pulmonary veins, between the two circles, and from the left circle to the mitral annulus using the electroanatomic mapping system. Repetitive continuous 7-day ECGs administered before and after catheter ablation were used for rhythm follow-up. RESULTS In 100 patients with paroxysmal (n = 80) and persistent (n = 20) AF, relative duration of time spent in AF significantly decreased over time (35 +/- 37% before ablation, 26 +/- 41% directly after ablation, and 10 +/- 22% after 12 months). Freedom from AF stepwise increased in patients with paroxysmal AF and after 12 months measured at 88% or 74% depending on whether 24-h ECG or 7-day ECG was used. Complete pulmonary vein isolation was demonstrated in <20% of the circular lesions. CONCLUSIONS The results obtained in patients with AF treated with circular plus linear left atrial lesions strongly indicate that substrate modification is the main underlying pathophysiologic mechanism and that it results in a delayed cure instead of an immediate cure.

A Time-Motion Study of Registered Nurses’ Workflow in Intensive Care Unit Remote Monitoring

Utilizing advanced information technology, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) remote monitoring allows highly trained specialists to oversee a large number of patients at multiple sites on a continuous basis. In the current research, we conducted a time-motion study of registered nurses’ work in an ICU remote monitoring facility. Data were collected on seven nurses through 40 hours of observation. The results showed that nurses’ essential tasks were centered on three themes: monitoring patients, maintaining patients’ health records, and managing technology use. In monitoring patients, nurses spent 52% of the time assimilating information embedded in a clinical information system and 15% on monitoring live vitals. System-generated alerts frequently interrupted nurses in their task performance and redirected them to manage suddenly appearing events. These findings provide insight into nurses’ workflow in a new, technology-driven critical care setting and have important implications for system design, work engineering, and personnel selection and training.

High-resolution glacial and deglacial record of atmospheric methane by continuous-flow and laser spectrometer analysis along the NEEM ice core

The Greenland NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) operation in 2010 provided the first opportunity to combine trace-gas measurements by laser spectroscopic instruments and continuous-flow analysis along a freshly drilled ice core in a field-based setting. We present the resulting atmospheric methane (CH4) record covering the time period from 107.7 to 9.5 ka b2k (thousand years before 2000 AD). Companion discrete CH4 measurements are required to transfer the laser spectroscopic data from a relative to an absolute scale. However, even on a relative scale, the high-resolution CH4 data set significantly improves our knowledge of past atmospheric methane concentration changes. New significant sub-millennial-scale features appear during interstadials and stadials, generally associated with similar changes in water isotopic ratios of the ice, a proxy for local temperature. In addition to the midpoint of Dansgaard–Oeschger (D/O) CH4 transitions usually used for cross-dating, sharp definition of the start and end of these events brings precise depth markers (with ±20 cm uncertainty) for further cross-dating with other palaeo- or ice core records, e.g. speleothems. The method also provides an estimate of CH4 rates of change. The onsets of D/O events in the methane signal show a more rapid rate of change than their endings. The rate of CH4 increase associated with the onsets of D/O events progressively declines from 1.7 to 0.6 ppbv yr−1 in the course of marine isotope stage 3. The largest observed rate of increase takes place at the onset of D/O event #21 and reaches 2.5 ppbv yr−1.

Effect of continuous gastric enteral feeding on tonometric measurement of gastric intramucosal carbon dioxide levels in healthy volunteers

Purpose. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of enteral feeding on tonometric measurement of gastric regional carbon dioxide levels (PrCO2) in normal healthy volunteers. Design and methods. The sample included 12 healthy volunteers recruited by the University Clinical Research Center (UCRC). An air tonometry system monitored PrCO2 levels using a tonometer placed in the lumen of the stomach via orogastric intubation. PrCO2 was automatically measured and recorded every 10 minutes throughout the five hour study period. An oral dose of famotidine 40 mg was self-administered the evening prior to and the morning of the study. Instillation of Isocal® High Nitrogen (HN) was used for enteral feeding in hourly escalating doses of 0, 40, 60, and 80 ml/hr with no feeding during the fifth hour. Results . PrCO2 measurements at time 0 and 10 minutes (41.4 ± 6.5 and 41.8 ± 5.7, respectively) demonstrated biologic precision (Levene's Test statistic = 0.085, p-value 0.774). Biologic precision was lost between T130 and T140 40 when compared to baseline TO (Levene's Test statistic = 1.70, p-value 0.205; and 3.205, p-value 0.042, respectively) and returned to non-significant levels between T270 and T280 (Levene's Test statistic = 3.083, p-value 0.043; and 2.307, p-value 0.143, respectively). Isocal® HN significantly affected the biologic accuracy of PrCO2 measurements (repeated measures ANOVA F 4.91, p-value <0.001). After 20 minutes of enteral feeding at 40 ml/hr, PrCO2 significantly increased (41.4 ± 6.5 to 46.6 ± 4.25, F = 5.4, p-value 0.029). Maximum variance from baseline (41.4 ± 6.5 to 61.3 ± 15.2, F = 17.22, p-value <0.001) was noted after 30 minutes of Isocal® HN at 80 ml/hr or 210 minutes from baseline. The significant elevations in PrCO2 continued throughout the study. Sixty minutes after discontinuation of enteral feeding, PrCO2 remained significantly elevated from baseline (41.4 ± 6.5 to 51.8 ± 9.2, F = 10.15, p-value 0.004). Conclusion. Enteral feeding with Isocal® HN significantly affects the precision and accuracy of PrCO2 measurements in healthy volunteers. ^