Effects of patch size and density on flower visitation and seed set of wild plants: a pan-European approach

1. Habitat fragmentation can affect pollinator and plant population structure in terms of species composition, abundance, area covered and density of flowering plants. This, in turn, may affect pollinator visitation frequency, pollen deposition, seed set and plant fitness. 2. A reduction in the quantity of flower visits can be coupled with a reduction in the quality of pollination service and hence the plants’ overall reproductive success and long-term survival. Understanding the relationship between plant population size and⁄ or isolation and pollination limitation is of fundamental importance for plant conservation. 3. Weexamined flower visitation and seed set of 10 different plant species fromfive European countries to investigate the general effects of plant populations size and density, both within (patch level) and between populations (population level), on seed set and pollination limitation. 4. Wefound evidence that the effects of area and density of flowering plant assemblages were generally more pronounced at the patch level than at the population level. We also found that patch and population level together influenced flower visitation and seed set, and the latter increased with increasing patch area and density, but this effect was only apparent in small populations. 5. Synthesis. By using an extensive pan-European data set on flower visitation and seed set we have identified a general pattern in the interplay between the attractiveness of flowering plant patches for pollinators and density dependence of flower visitation, and also a strong plant species-specific response to habitat fragmentation effects. This can guide efforts to conserve plant–pollinator interactions, ecosystem functioning and plant fitness in fragmented habitats.

Lagrangian validation of numerical drifter trajectories using drifting buoys: Application to the Agulhas system

The skill of numerical Lagrangian drifter trajectories in three numerical models is assessed by comparing these numerically obtained paths to the trajectories of drifting buoys in the real ocean. The skill assessment is performed using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. To demonstrate the assessment procedure, it is applied to three different models of the Agulhas region. The test can either be performed using crossing positions of one-dimensional sections in order to test model performance in specific locations, or using the total two-dimensional data set of trajectories. The test yields four quantities: a binary decision of model skill, a confidence level which can be used as a measure of goodness-of-fit of the model, a test statistic which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the confidence level, and cumulative distribution functions that aid in the qualitative analysis. The ordering of models by their confidence levels is the same as the ordering based on the qualitative analysis, which suggests that the method is suited for model validation. Only one of the three models, a 1/10° two-way nested regional ocean model, might have skill in the Agulhas region. The other two models, a 1/2° global model and a 1/8° assimilative model, might have skill only on some sections in the region

Force constants and dipole moment derivatives of molecules from perturbed Hartree-Fock calculations II. Applications to limited basis set SCF-MO wavefunctions

The perturbed Hartree–Fock theory developed in the preceding paper is applied to LiH, BH, and HF, using limited basis‐set SCF–MO wavefunctions derived by previous workers. The calculated values for the force constant ke and the dipole‐moment derivative μ(1) are (experimental values in parentheses): LiH, ke  =  1.618(1.026)mdyn/Å,μ(1)  =  −18.77(−2.0±0.3)D/ÅBH,ke  =  5.199(3.032)mdyn/Å,μ(1)  =  −1.03(−)D/Å;HF,ke  =  12.90(9.651)mdyn/Å,μ(1)  =  −2.15(+1.50)D/Å. The values of the force on the proton were calculated exactly and according to the Hellmann–Feynman theorem in each case, and the discrepancies show that none of the wavefunctions used are close to the Hartree–Fock limit, so that the large errors in ke and μ(1) are not surprising. However no difficulties arose in the perturbed Hartree–Fock calculation, so that the application of the theory to more accurate wavefunctions appears quite feasible.

Recent changes in solar outputs and the global mean surface temperature. III. Analysis of contributions to global mean air surface temperature rise

A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

Management of plant communities on set-aside land and its effects on earthworm communities

Plant communities of set-aside agricultural land in a European project were managed in order to enhance plant succession towards weed-resistant, mid-successional grassland. Here, we ask if the management of a plant community affects the earthworm community. Field experiments were established in four countries, the Netherlands, Sweden, the UK, and the Czech Republic. High (15 plant species) and low diversity (four plant species) seed mixtures were sown as management practice, with natural colonization as control treatment in a randomized block design. The response of the earthworrns to the management was studied after three summers since establishment of the sites. Samples were also taken from plots with continued agricultural practices included in the experimental design and from a site with a late successional plant community representing the target plant community. The numbers and biomass of individuals were higher in the set-aside plots than in the agricultural treatment in two countries out of four. The numbers of individuals at one site (The Netherlands) was higher in the naturally colonized plots than in the sowing treatments, otherwise there were no differences between the treatments. Species diversity was lower in the agricultural plots in one country. The species composition had changed from the initial community of the agricultural field, but was still different from a late successional target community. The worm biomass was positively related to legume biomass in Sweden and to grass biomass in the UK. (C) 2005 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

The impact of Solanum elaeagnifolium, an invasive plant in the Mediterranean, on the flower visitation and seed set of the native co-flowering species Glaucium flavum

We examined the effect of the invasive Solanum elaeagnifolium (Solanaceae) on flower visitation patterns and seed set of the co-flowering native Glaucium flavum (Papaveraceae). We observed flowering G. flavum plants in invaded and uninvaded sites and found that G. flavum flowers in uninvaded sites received significantly more total visits. In addition, we hand-pollinated flowers on plants of G. flavum with (i) pure conspecific pollen, (ii) pure S. elaeagnifolium pollen and (iii) three different mixtures of the two types of pollen (containing 25, 50 and 75% invasive pollen). As a control, flowers were left unmanipulated or were permanently bagged. Seed set did not differ significantly between flowers receiving pollen mixtures and pure conspecific pollen. However, in the open pollination treatment, seed set was significantly lower than in the 100% conspecific pollen treatment, which suggests pollen limitation. Bagged flowers had very low seed set. G. flavum was generally resilient against the deposition of S. elaeagnifolium pollen.

Point estimates and confidence regions for sequential trials involving selection

A number of authors have proposed clinical trial designs involving the comparison of several experimental treatments with a control treatment in two or more stages. At the end of the first stage, the most promising experimental treatment is selected, and all other experimental treatments are dropped from the trial. Provided it is good enough, the selected experimental treatment is then compared with the control treatment in one or more subsequent stages. The analysis of data from such a trial is problematic because of the treatment selection and the possibility of stopping at interim analyses. These aspects lead to bias in the maximum-likelihood estimate of the advantage of the selected experimental treatment over the control and to inaccurate coverage for the associated confidence interval. In this paper, we evaluate the bias of the maximum-likelihood estimate and propose a bias-adjusted estimate. We also propose an approach to the construction of a confidence region for the vector of advantages of the experimental treatments over the control based on an ordering of the sample space. These regions are shown to have accurate coverage, although they are also shown to be necessarily unbounded. Confidence intervals for the advantage of the selected treatment are obtained from the confidence regions and are shown to have more accurate coverage than the standard confidence interval based upon the maximum-likelihood estimate and its asymptotic standard error.

Comprehension of wh-questions and declarative sentences in agrammatic aphasia: the set partition hypothesis

Problematic trace-antecedent relations between deep and surface structure have been a dominant theme in sentence comprehension in agrammatism. We challenge this view and propose that the comprehension in agrammatism in declarative sentences and wh-questions stems from impaired processing in logical form. We present new data from wh-questions and declarative sentences and advance a new hypothesis which we call the set partition hypothesis. We argue that elements that signal set partition operations influence sentence comprehension while trace-antecedent relations remain intact. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Receding and disparity cues aid relaxation of accommodation

Purpose. Accommodation can mask hyperopia and reduce the accuracy of non-cycloplegic refraction. It is, therefore, important to minimize accommodation to obtain a measure of hyperopia as accurate as possible. To characterize the parameters required to measure the maximally hyperopic error using photorefraction, we used different target types and distances to determine which target was most likely to maximally relax accommodation and thus more accurately detect hyperopia in an individual. Methods. A PlusoptiX SO4 infra-red photorefractor was mounted in a remote haploscope which presented the targets. All participants were tested with targets at four fixation distances between 0.3 and 2 m containing all combinations of blur, disparity, and proximity/looming cues. Thirty-eight infants (6 to 44 weeks) were studied longitudinally, and 104 children [4 to 15 years (mean 6.4)] and 85 adults, with a range of refractive errors and binocular vision status, were tested once. Cycloplegic refraction data were available for a sub-set of 59 participants spread across the age range. Results. The maximally hyperopic refraction (MHR) found at any time in the session was most frequently found when fixating the most distant targets and those containing disparity and dynamic proximity/looming cues. Presence or absence of blur was less significant, and targets in which only single cues to depth were present were also less likely to produce MHR. MHR correlated closely with cycloplegic refraction (r = 0.93, mean difference 0.07 D, p = n.s., 95% confidence interval +/-<0.25 D) after correction by a calibration factor. Conclusions. Maximum relaxation of accommodation occurred for binocular targets receding into the distance. Proximal and disparity cues aid relaxation of accommodation to a greater extent than blur, and thus non-cycloplegic refraction targets should incorporate these cues. This is especially important in screening contexts with a brief opportunity to test for significant hyperopia. MHR in our laboratory was found to be a reliable estimation of cycloplegic refraction. (Optom Vis Sci 2009;86:1276-1286)

Depression, confidence, and decision: evidence against depressive realism

This research examined how retrospective self-assessments of performance are affected by major depression. To test the validity of the depressive realism versus the selective processing hypotheses, aggregate posttest performance estimates (PTPEs) were obtained from clinically depressed patients and an age-matched comparison group across 4 decision tasks (object recognition, general knowledge, social judgment, and line-length judgment). As expected on the basis of previous findings, both groups were underconfident in their PTPEs, consistently underestimating the percentage of questions they had answered correctly. Contrary to depressive realism, and in partial support of the selective processing account, this underconfidence effect was not reduced but modestly exacerbated in the depressed patients. Further, whereas the PTPEs of the comparison group exceeded that expected on the basis of chance alone those of the depressed individuals did not. The results provide no support for the depressive realism account and suggest that negative biases contribute to metacognitive information processing in major depression.