A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Short communication: Identification of subclinical cow mastitis pathogens in milk by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Subclinical mastitis is a common and easily disseminated disease in dairy herds. Its routine diagnosis via bacterial culture and biochemical identification is a difficult and time-consuming process. In this work, we show that matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) allows bacterial identification with high confidence and speed (1 d for bacterial growth and analysis). With the use of MALDI-TOF MS, 33 bacterial culture isolates from milk of different dairy cows from several farms were analyzed, and the results were compared with those obtained by classical biochemical methods. This proof-of-concept case demonstrates the reliability of MALDI-TOF MS bacterial identification, and its increased selectivity as illustrated by the additional identification of coagulase-negative Staphylococcus species and mixed bacterial cultures. Matrix-assisted laser desorption-ionization mass spectrometry considerably accelerates the diagnosis of mastitis pathogens, especially in cases of subclinical mastitis. More immediate and efficient animal management strategies for mastitis and milk quality control in the dairy industry can therefore be applied.

Transient disruption of liver gap junctional intercellular communication and induction of apoptosis after administration of 1,4-bis[2-(3,5 dichloropyridyloxy)]benzene in mice

Gap junctional intercellular communication (GJIC) and connexin expression (Cx26 and Cx32) in mouse liver were studied after administration of 4-bis[2-(3,5 dichloropyridyloxy)]benzene (TCPOBOP), a phenobarbital-like enzyme inducer. Female C57BI/6 mice were administered TCPOBOP (5.8 mg/kg BW) and euthanized 0, 24, 48 and 72 hours later. Liver samples were snap frozen, or fixed in formalin, or submitted to GJIC analysis. The proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) immunohistochemistry and the Western blotting for Cx26 and Cx32 were performed. After 48 and 72 h of drug administration the liver-to-body weight ratio was increased 70% and 117% (p < 0.0001), respectively. There were temporal-dependent alterations in liver histopathology and a significant increase in cell proliferation was noted after 48h and sustained after 72h, though to a lesser extent (p < 0.0001). In addition. TCPOBOP administration induced apoptosis, which appeared to be time-dependent showing statistical significance only after 72h (p < 0.0001). Interestingly, a transient disruption by nearly 50% of GJIC capacity was detected after 48 h of drug ingestion, which recovered after 72 h (p = 0.003). These GJIC changes were due to altered levels of Cx26 and Cx32 in the livers of TCPOBOP-treated mice. We concluded that a single administration of TCPOBOP transiently disrupted the levels of GJIC due to decreased expression of connexins and increased apoptotic cell death in mouse liver. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Pfaffia paniculata (Brazilian ginseng) roots decrease proliferation and increase apoptosis but do not affect cell communication in murine hepatocarcinogenesis

Pfaffia paniculata (Brazilian ginseng) roots and/or its extracts have shown anti-neoplastic, chemopreventive, and anti-angiogenic properties. The aim of this work was to investigate the chemopreventive mechanisms of this root in Mice Submitted to the infant model of hepatocarcinogenesis, evaluating the effects oil cellular proliferation, apoptosis. and intercellular communication. Fifteen-day-old BALB/c male mice were given, i.p., 10 mu g/g of the carcinogen N-nitrosodiethylamine (DEN). Animals were separated into three groups at weaning and were given different concentrations of powdered P. paniculata root (0%, 2%, or 10%) added to commercial food for 27 weeks. Control group (CT) was not exposed to the carcinogen and was given ration without the root. After euthanasia, the animals` liver and body weight were measured. Liver fragments were sampled to Study intercellular communication, molecular biology, and histopathological analysis. Cellular proliferation was evaluated by immunohistochemistry for PCNA, apoptosis was evaluated by apoptotic bodies count and alkaline cornet technique, and inter-cellular communication by diffusion of lucifer yellow dye, immunofluorescence, western blot and real-time PCR for connexins 26 and 32. Chronic treatment with powdered P. paniculata root reduced cellular proliferation and increased apoptosis in the 2%, group. Animals in the 10% group had an increase in apoptosis with chronic inflammatory process. Intercellular communication showed no alterations in any of the groups analyzed. These results Indicate that chemopreventive effects of P. paniculata are related to the control of cellular proliferation and apoptosis, but not to cell communication and/or connexin expression, and are directly Influenced by the root concentration. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.

Resource entitlements of indigenous minorities, their poverty and conservation of nature: Status of Australian Aborigines, comparisons with India's tribals, theory and changing policies globally

Considers the relevance of A.K. Sen’s theory of entitlements to the situation facing indigenous tribal people, its relationship to institutionalism, and to theories of property rights. Changing world views about the resource entitlements that should be given to local communities are outlined concentrating on the views expressed by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). These changing views have relevance for the resource entitlements of indigenous tribal communities and are reflected in differences in the policy approaches inherent in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and the more recent Convention on Biological Diversity. The latter embodies the view that provision of greater resource entitlements to local communities can provide economic incentives for nature conservation. There is a case for Indigenous Australians to be given greater rights to market the natural produce from their lands. Despite progress with land rights, they are not entitled to market much of the natural produce from their land. The socioeconomic status of Australian Aborigines is outlined. Their standard of living and their life expectancy are low by world standards and in comparison to other Australians. This is partly a result of historical events that have restricted their rights. These events are outlined briefly. Views differ about the appropriate development paths for Indigenous Australians and these are assessed. Concern on environmental and economic grounds is expressed about the view that the economic development of Australian Aboriginal communities would be accelerated by replacing their communal land titles by private land titles and encouraging Western-style agriculture and commercial development of their lands. Some comparisons are also made with the situation of India’s Tribals.

Differential inclusions and robust control theory

Uncontrolled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax, where A is a non-empty compact set of matrices, and controlled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax + Bu are considered. Higher-order systems 0 is an element of Px - Du, where and are sets of differential polynomials, are also studied. It is shown that, under natural conditions commonly occurring in robust control theory, with some mild additional restrictions, asymptotic stability of differential inclusions is guaranteed. The main results are variants of small-gain theorems and the principal technique used is the Krasnosel'skii-Pokrovskii principle of absence of bounded solutions.

Should optional properties be used in conceptual modelling? A theory and three empirical tests

An important feature of some conceptual modelling grammars is the features they provide to allow database designers to show real-world things may or may not possess a particular attribute or relationship. In the entity-relationship model, for example, the fact that a thing may not possess an attribute can be represented by using a special symbol to indicate that the attribute is optional. Similarly, the fact that a thing may or may not be involved in a relationship can be represented by showing the minimum cardinality of the relationship as zero. Whether these practices should be followed, however, is a contentious issue. An alternative approach is to eliminate optional attributes and relationships from conceptual schema diagrams by using subtypes that have only mandatory attributes and relationships. In this paper, we first present a theory that led us to predict that optional attributes and relationships should be used in conceptual schema diagrams only when users of the diagrams require a surface-level understanding of the domain being represented by the diagrams. When users require a deep-level understanding, however, optional attributes and relationships should not be used because they undermine users' abilities to grasp important domain semantics. We describe three experiments which we then undertook to test our predictions. The results of the experiments support our predictions.