Warming trend in northern East China Sea in recent four decades

Global warming has become a notable trend especially since an abrupt climate change in 1976. Response of the East China Sea (ECS) to the global warming trend, however, is not well understood because of sparse long-term observation. In this paper, hydrographic observation data of 1957-1996 are collected and reviewed to study climatological variability in northern ECS. Significant warming trends are found in both summer and winter. In summer, the average SST is about 0.46A degrees C higher during the period of 1977-1996 than that of 1957-1976, and the Taiwan Warm Current Water (TWCW) was strengthened. In winter, despite of the cooling effect in the coastal areas adjacent to the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Estuary (CRE), the average SST increase was about 0.53A degrees C during the same period. The causes of this SST warming up in summer are different from in winter. The warming trend and intensification of the TWCW in summer were primarily influenced by the strengthening of the Kuroshio transport, while the warming in winter was mainly induced by the variability of the climate system.

Study on corrosion of steels in marine environment by corrosion simulation device

Three kinds of steels were studied using electrically connected hanging specimen in the corrosion simulation device and offshore long scale hanging specimen. The experimental results obtained by the two methods show that the device can better reflect the offshore corrosion environment. A Ni-Cu-P steel specimen was studied through analysis of the specimen's corrosion products and corrosion types. The surface of the samples before and after the removal of the rust layer produced by these two methods were observed and compared after some experiments. The microstructure of the corrosion products under different marine environments were analyzed and compared through IR. It indicated good correlation between the electrically connected hanging specimen method and the long scale hanging specimen method.

Study on corrosion simulation device for marine structural steel

A corrosion simulation device was studied using offshore long scale hanging specimens. An Ni-Cu-P steel specimen was studied by analysing its corrosion products and corrosion types. The appearance of the samples and the surface of the metallic substrate after the removal of the rust layer produced by these two methods were observed and compared after 470 days of exposure. The phase structure of the corrosion products under different marine environments were analysed and compared. It further indicated good correlation between the electrically connected hanging specimen method and the long scale hanging specimen method.

A Simulative Study on Effects of Climate Warming on Nutrient Contents and In Vitro Digestibility of Herbage Grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

The increasing trend of air temperature along with the climate warming has been accepted gradual-ly by scientists and by the general public. Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, a unique geographic unit due to high-altitude climate, is one of the most susceptible regions to climate warming. Its ecosystem is very fragile and sensi-tive to climate change. In order to get a better understanding of the impacts of climate warming on the nutrient contents of herbage grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, a simulative study was implemented at Daban Moutain by using temperature differences resulted from sites selected at different altitudes and nutrient contents and in vitro digestibility were determined for assessing the quality of the grown herbage. There were significant downtrends in crude protein (CP), ether extract (EE) and nitrogen free extract (NFE) contents of herbage along with the increase of temperature. It had a positive correlation between temperature and content of acid detergent fibre (ADF), acid detergent lignin (ADL) in herbage. In vitro digestibility of herbage decreased along with the in-crease of temperature. The results of this study indicated that climate warming significantly influence nutrient contents and in vitro digestibility of herbage grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. It is suggested that the future climate warming especially the gradual rise of the night temperature could cause negative effect on herbage quality grown in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by decreasing CP, EE, and NFE contents and increasing some indi-gestible ingredients such as crude fibre (CF), neutral detergent fibre (NDF), ADF, and ADL. This, conse-quently, decreases the ruminant assimilation ability.

Decline in medicinal and forage species with warming is mediated by plant traits on the Tibetan Plateau

Experimental studies of how global changes and human activities affect plant diversity often focus on broad measures of diversity and discuss the implications of these changes for ecosystem function. We examined how experimental warming and grazing affected species within plant groups of direct importance to Tibetan pastoralists: medicinal plants used by humans and palatable plants consumed by livestock. Warming resulted in species losses from both the medicinal and palatable plant groups; however, differential relative vulnerability to warming occurred. With respect to the percent of warming-induced species losses, the overall plant community lost 27%, medicinal plants lost 21%, and non-medicinal plants lost 40% of species. Losses of palatable and non-palatable species were similar to losses in the overall plant community. The deep-rootedness of medicinal plants resulted in lowered sensitivity to warming, whereas the shallow-rootedness of non-medicinal plants resulted in greater sensitivity to warming; the variable rooting depth of palatable and non-palatable plants resulted in an intermediate response to warming. Predicting the vulnerability of plant groups to human activities can be enhanced by knowledge of plant traits, their response to specific drivers, and their distribution within plant groups. Knowledge of the mechanisms through which a driver operates, and the evolutionary interaction of plants with that driver, will aid predictions. Future steps to protect ecosystem services furnished by medicinal and palatable plants will be required under the novel stress of a warmer climate. Grazing may be an important tool in maintaining some of these services under future warming.

Infrared heater arrays for warming ecosystem field plots

There is a need for methodology to warm open-field plots in order to study the likely effects of global warming on ecosystems in the future. Herein, we describe the development of arrays of more powerful and efficient infrared heaters with ceramic heating elements. By tilting the heaters at 45 degrees from horizontal and combining six of them in a hexagonal array, good uniformity of warming was achieved across 3-m-diameter plots. Moreover, there do not appear to be obstacles (other than financial) to scaling to larger plots. The efficiency [eta(h) (%); thermal radiation out per electrical energy in] of these heaters was higher than that of the heaters used in most previous infrared heater experiments and can be described by: eta(h) = 10 + 25exp(-0.17 u), where u is wind speed at 2 m height (m s(-1)). Graphs are presented to estimate operating costs from degrees of warming, two types of plant canopy, and site windiness. Four such arrays were deployed over plots of grass at Haibei, Qinghai, China and another at Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA, along with corresponding reference plots with dummy heaters. Proportional integral derivative systems with infrared thermometers to sense canopy temperatures of the heated and reference plots were used to control the heater outputs. Over month-long periods at both sites, about 75% of canopy temperature observations were within 0.5 degrees C of the set-point temperature differences between heated and reference plots. Electrical power consumption per 3-m-diameter plot averaged 58 and 80 kW h day(-1) for Haibei and Cheyenne, respectively. However, the desired temperature differences were set lower at Haibei (1.2 degrees C daytime, 1.7 degrees C night) than Cheyenne (1.5 degrees C daytime, 3.0 degrees C night), and Cheyenne is a windier site. Thus, we conclude that these hexagonal arrays of ceramic infrared heaters can be a successful temperature free-air-controlled enhancement (T-FACE) system for warming ecosystem field plots.

Cellular automata: Simulating alpine tundra vegetation dynamics in response to global warming

This study attempts to model alpine tundra vegetation dynamics in a tundra region in the Qinghai Province of China in response to global warming. We used Raster-based cellular automata and a Geographic Information System to study the spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. The cellular automata model is implemented with IDRISI's Multi-Criteria Evaluation functionality to simulate the spatial patterns of vegetation change assuming certain scenarios of global mean temperature increase over time. The Vegetation Dynamic Simulation Model calculates a probability surface for each vegetation type, and then combines all vegetation types into a composite map, determined by the maximum likelihood that each vegetation type should distribute to each raster unit. With scenarios of global temperature increase of I to 3 degrees C, the vegetation types such as Dry Kobresia Meadow and Dry Potentilla Shrub that are adapted to warm and dry conditions tend to become more dominant in the study area.

Effect of imitated global warming on Delta C-13 values in seven plant species growing in Tibet alpine meadows

Open-top chambers were used to estimate the possible effects of global warming on delta C-13 of seven plant species grown in alpine meadow ecosystem. The delta C-13 values of plant species were lower after long-term growth in open-top chambers. In the course of experiment, temperature significantly increased inside the chambers by 4 degrees C. Plant species grown at a lower elevation above sea level had higher delta C-13 values as compared to those grown at a higher elevation. This was in accordance with the effect of open-top chamber on delta C-13 values in plants. Greater availability of CO2 and lower water vapor as indicated by an increase in discrimination against (CO2)-C-13, probably result in more negative delta C-13 values of plants because higher stomatal conductance increases availability of CO2 and causes greater discrimination against (CO2)-C-13. The plant species studied could be the indicator species for testing global warming by the change in carbon isotope ratios at the two growth temperatures.

Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes

Whether climate change will turn cold biomes from large long-term carbon sinks into sources is hotly debated because of the great potential for ecosystem-mediated feedbacks to global climate. Critical are the direction, magnitude and generality of climate responses of plant litter decomposition. Here, we present the first quantitative analysis of the major climate-change-related drivers of litter decomposition rates in cold northern biomes worldwide. Leaf litters collected from the predominant species in 33 global change manipulation experiments in circum-arctic-alpine ecosystems were incubated simultaneously in two contrasting arctic life zones. We demonstrate that longer-term, large-scale changes to leaf litter decomposition will be driven primarily by both direct warming effects and concomitant shifts in plant growth form composition, with a much smaller role for changes in litter quality within species. Specifically, the ongoing warming-induced expansion of shrubs with recalcitrant leaf litter across cold biomes would constitute a negative feedback to global warming. Depending on the strength of other (previously reported) positive feedbacks of shrub expansion on soil carbon turnover, this may partly counteract direct warming enhancement of litter decomposition.

Experimental warming, not grazing, decreases rangeland quality on the Tibetan Plateau

We investigated experimental warming and simulated grazing ( clipping) effects on rangeland quality, as indicated by vegetation production and nutritive quality, in winter-grazed meadows and summer- grazed shrublands on the Tibetan Plateau, a rangeland system experiencing climatic and pastoral land use changes. Warming decreased total aboveground net primary productivity ( ANPP) by 40 g . m(-2) . yr(-1) at the meadow habitats and decreased palatable ANPP ( total ANPP minus non- palatable forb ANPP) by 10 g . m(-2) . yr(-1) at both habitats. The decreased production of the medicinal forb Gentiana straminea and the increased production of the non- palatable forb Stellera chamaejasme with warming also reduced rangeland quality. At the shrubland habitats, warming resulted in less digestible shrubs, whose foliage contains 25% digestible dry matter ( DDM), replacing more digestible graminoids, whose foliage contains 60% DDM. This shift from graminoids to shrubs not only results in lower- quality forage, but could also have important consequences for future domestic herd composition. Although warming extended the growing season in non- clipped plots, the reduced rangeland quality due to decreased vegetative production and nutritive quality will likely overwhelm the improved rangeland quality associated with an extended growing season.Grazing maintained or improved rangeland quality by increasing total ANPP by 20 - 40 g . m(-2) . yr(-1) with no effect on palatable ANPP. Grazing effects on forage nutritive quality, as measured by foliar nitrogen and carbon content and by shifts in plant group ANPP, resulted in improved forage quality. Grazing extended the growing season at both habitats, and it advanced the growing season at the meadows. Synergistic interactions between warming and grazing were present, such that grazing mediated the warming- induced declines in vegetation production and nutritive quality. Moreover, combined treatment effects were nonadditive, suggesting that we cannot predict the combined effect of global changes and human activities from single- factor studies.Our findings suggest that the rangelands on the Tibetan Plateau, and the pastoralists who depend on them, may be vulnerable to future climate changes. Grazing can mitigate the negative warming effects on rangeland quality. For example, grazing management may be an important tool to keep warming- induced shrub expansion in check. Moreover, flexible and opportunistic grazing management will be required in a warmer future.

Dynamic and complex microclimate responses to warming and grazing manipulations

Synthesis efforts that identify patterns of ecosystem response to a suite of warming manipulations can make important contributions to climate change science. However, cross-study comparisons are impeded by the paucity of detailed analyses of how passive warming and other manipulations affect microclimate. Here we document the independent and combined effects of a common passive warming manipulation, open-top chambers (OTCs), and a simulated widespread land use, clipping, on microclimate on the Tibetan Plateau. OTCs consistently elevated growing season averaged mean daily air temperature by 1.0-2.0 degrees C, maximum daily air temperature by 2.1-7.3 degrees C and the diurnal air temperature range by 1.9-6.5 degrees C, with mixed effects on minimum daily air temperature, and mean daily soil temperature and moisture. These OTC effects on microclimate differ from reported effects of a common active warming method, infrared heating, which has more consistent effects on soil than on air temperature. There were significant interannual and intragrowing season differences in OTC effects on microclimate. For example, while OTCs had mixed effects on growing season averaged soil temperatures, OTCs consistently elevated soil temperature by approximately 1.0 degrees C early in the growing season. Nonadditive interactions between OTCs and clipping were also present: OTCs in clipped plots generally elevated air and soil temperatures more than OTCs in nonclipped plots. Moreover, site factors dynamically interacted with microclimate and with the efficacy of the OTC manipulations.These findings highlight the need to understand differential microclimate effects between warming methods, within warming method across ecosystem sites, within warming method crossed with other treatments, and within sites over various timescales. Methods, sites and scales are potential explanatory variables and covariables in climate warming experiments. Consideration of this variability among and between experimental warming studies will lead to greater understanding and better prediction of ecosystem response to anthropogenic climate warming.

Local warming about 1.3 degrees C in alpine meadow has no effect on root vole (Microtus oeconomus L.) population during winter

The influence of air and soil warming on root vole (Microtus oeconomus L.) population was studied in winter period in top open chambers (OTC) (0.8-1.8 m(2) warmed by conical fiberglass material and situated in alpine meadow (3250 m) at Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. The OTCs were distributed on an area of 30 x 30 m of experimental warming site; another site of the same area was a control one. The root vole population was investigated on two pairs of sites in "low-grazing" and "high-grazing" (by sheep) parts of the meadow; mark-recapture method was used. The winter-season averaged air and soil temperature inside of the chambers were 1.3 degrees C higher than the temperature outside the chambers. The warming in the chambers had no statistically significant effect on root vole numbers, on average body mass of individual, and on average body mass of males and females. In conclusion, as small as 1.3 degrees C warming of soil and air introduced locally and on small (several m(2)) scale, in the alpine meadow habitat in winter period, has possibly no effect on root vole numbers and biomass.

Experimental warming causes large and rapid species loss, dampened by simulated grazing, on the Tibetan Plateau

We investigated the independent and combined effects of experimental warming and grazing on plant species diversity on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau, a region highly vulnerable to ongoing climate and land use changes. Experimental warming caused a 26-36% decrease in species richness, a response that was generally dampened by experimental grazing. Higher species losses occurred at the drier sites where N was less available. Moreover, we observed an indirect effect of climate change on species richness as mediated by plant-plant interactions. Heat stress and warming-induced litter accumulation are potential explanations for the species' responses to experimental warming. This is the first reported experimental evidence that climate warming could cause dramatic declines in plant species diversity in high elevation ecosystems over short time frames and supports model predictions of species losses with anthropogenic climate change.

Hypothesizing Device Mechanisms: Opening Up the Black Box

I describe an approach to forming hypotheses about hidden mechanism configurations within devices given external observations and a vocabulary of primitive mechanisms. An implemented causal modelling system called JACK constructs explanations for why a second piece of toast comes out lighter, why the slide in a tire gauge does not slip back inside when the gauge is removed from the tire, and how in a refrigerator a single substance can serve as a heat sink for the interior and a heat source for the exterior. I report the number of hypotheses admitted for each device example, and provide empirical results which isolate the pruning power due to different constraint sources.

What we need to know before speaking on Climate Change and Global Warming

Workshop on Energy Greenhouse Gases & Environment, Porto, 2008