The macroeconomic effects of German unification: Real adjustments and the welfare state

We study the effects of German unification in a model with capital accumulation, skill differences and a welfare state. We argue that this event is similar to a mass migration of low-skilled agents holding no capital into a foreign country. Absent a welfare state, we observe an investment boom, depressed output and employment conditions. Capital owners and high-skilled agents are willing to give up to 4% of per-capita consumption to favor unification. When a welfare state exists the investment boom disappears and the recession is prolonged. Now, with unification, capital owners and high-skilled agents lose 4% of per-capita consumption.

International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions oncivil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars aremore likely to start following downturns in the internationalprice of countries main export commodities. The data showa robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreakof civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries aremore likely to see civil wars following economic downturnsin their main OECD export destinations.

The aftermath of Civil War

Using an event-study methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. It conducts this analysis both in absolute and relative terms, the latter in relation to control groups of otherwise similar countries. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved.

Window-dressing in German interwar balance sheets

German accounting rules value assets and liabilities asymmetricallyand thus lead to grossly distorted balance sheets. In the interwardebate on a reform of disclosure regulation, financial expertsconsidered the (undisclosed) tax balance sheet, which had to bedrawn up separately for the corporate tax assessment, as a paradigmfor adequate financial disclosure. However, due to tax secrecy thaywere barred from analyzing tax documents. Using archival evidence,we analyze tax balance sheets from which the reliability of disclosedbalance sheets of the interwar period can be assessed. It emergesthat companies overstated their profits in the middand late 1920s,but grossly understated them in the Nazi economy.

The colonial origins of Civil War

The dominant hypothesis in the literature that studies conflict is that poverty is the main cause of civil wars. We instead analyze the effect of institutions on civil war, controlling for income per capita. In our set up, institutions are endogenous and colonial origins affect civil wars through their legacy on institutions. Our results indicate that institutions, proxied by the protection of property rights, rule of law and the efficiency of the legal system, are a fundamental cause of civil war. In particular, an improvement in institutions from the median value in the sample to the 75th percentile is associated with a 38 percentage points reduction in the incidence of civil wars. Moreover, once institutions are included as explaining civil wars, income does not have any effect on civil war, either directly or indirectly.

How different are returns to education? Evidence from German school choices

This study presents estimates of returns to post-secondary educationand wage differentials among graduates fromdifferent secondary schoolsin Germany. I use an empirical model that captures the basic features ofthe German education system. It controls for selection into post-secondaryeducation and treats latter as endogenous in the wage equation. Myresults show that OLS estimates are severely biased. The direction ofthe bias depends on the secondary school type. Annual returns topost-secondary education differ significantly: they are eight timeshigher for graduates from the highest secondary school than for graduatesfrom the lowest secondary school.

Malthusian dynamism and the rise of Europe: Make war, not love

This paper argues that Malthusian regimes are capable of sustained changes in per capita incomes. Shifting mortality and fertility schedules can lead to different steady-state income levels, with long periods of growth during the transition. Europe checked the downward pressure on wages through late marriage, which reduced fertility, and a mortality regime that combined high death rates with high incomes. We argue that both emerged as a result of the Black Death.

The economic effects of the Protestant Reformation: Testing the Weber hypothesis in the German Lands

Many theories, most famously Max Weber s essay on the Protestant ethic, have hypothesizedthat Protestantism should have favored economic development. With their considerablereligious heterogeneity and stability of denominational affiliations until the 19th century, theGerman Lands of the Holy Roman Empire present an ideal testing ground for this hypothesis.Using population figures in a dataset comprising 272 cities in the years 1300 1900, I find no effectsof Protestantism on economic growth. The finding is robust to the inclusion of a varietyof controls, and does not appear to depend on data selection or small sample size. In addition,Protestantism has no effect when interacted with other likely determinants of economic development.I also analyze the endogeneity of religious choice; instrumental variables estimates ofthe effects of Protestantism are similar to the OLS results.

The three horsemen of riches: Plague, war and urbanization in early modern Europe

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model withtwo sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes andurbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a smallfraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics changes of the birth and death schedules were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population cantrigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such ashock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, andurban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregatedeath rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues.In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced populationpressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in Europeanurbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change.Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thustrace Europe s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerentpolitical environment and the nature of cities.

Fat poetry: a kingdom for PPAR gamma.

Adipose tissue is not an inert cell mass contributing only to the storage of fat, but a sophisticated ensemble of cellular components with highly specialized and complex functions. In addition to managing the most important energy reserve of the body, it secretes a multitude of soluble proteins called adipokines, which have beneficial or, alternatively, deleterious effects on the homeostasis of the whole body. The expression of these adipokines is an integrated response to various signals received from many organs, which depends heavily on the integrity and physiological status of the adipose tissue. One of the main regulators of gene expression in fat is the transcription factor peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARgamma), which is a fatty acid- and eicosanoid-dependent nuclear receptor that plays key roles in the development and maintenance of the adipose tissue. Furthermore, synthetic PPARgamma agonists are therapeutic agents used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes.This review discusses recent knowledge on the link between fat physiology and metabolic diseases, and the roles of PPARgamma in this interplay via the regulation of lipid and glucose metabolism. Finally, we assess the putative benefits of targeting this nuclear receptor with still-to-be-identified highly selective PPARgamma modulators.