Experience of Development and Application of Expert Systems for Economic Macroparameters Forecasting and Operation

In this article there are considered problems of forecasting economical macroparameters, and in the first place, index of inflation. Concept of development of synthetical forecasting methods which use directly specified expert information as well as calculation result on the basis of objective economical and mathematical models for forecasting separate “slowly changeable parameters” are offered. This article discusses problems of macroparameters operation on the basis of analysis of received prognostic magnitude.

Interactive Stepwise Discriminant Analysis in Matlab

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62-04, 62H30, 62J20

Comparing Several Methods of Discriminant Analysis on the Case of Wine Data

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62H30, 62J20, 62P12, 68T99

The analysis of bullwhip effect in a HMMS-type supply chain

The aim of the paper is to investigate the well-known bullwhip effect of supply chains. Control theoretic analysis of bullwhip effect is extensively analyzed in the literature with the Laplace transform. This paper tries to examine the effect for an extended Holt–Modigliani–Muth–Simon model. A two-stage supply chain (supplier–manufacturer) is studied with quadratic costs functional. It is assumed that both firms minimize the relevant costs. The order of the manufacturer is delayed with a known constant. Two cases are examined: supplier and manufacturer minimize the relevant costs decentralized, and a centralized decision rule. The question is answered, how to decrease the bullwhip effect.

The analysis of bullwhip effect in a HMMS-type supply chain

The aim of the paper is to investigate the well-known bullwhip effect of supply chains. Control theoretic analysis of bullwhip effect is extensively analyzed in the literature with Laplace transform. This paper tries to examine the effect for an extended Holt-Modigliani-Muth-Simon model. A two-stage supply chain (supplier-manufacturer) is studied with quadratic costs functional. It is assumed that both firms minimize the relevant costs. The order of the manufacturer is delayed with a known constant. Two cases are examined: supplier and manufacturer minimize the relevant costs decentralized, and a centralized decision rule. The question is answered, how to decrease the bullwhip effect.

O antagonismo do receptor de serotonina do tipo 7 da substância cinzenta periaquedutal dorsal reduz a ansiedade experimental basal, mas não aquela gerada pela retirada do etanol em ratos

Ethanol-dependent individuals who reduce or discontinue its use may present Alcohol Withdrawal Syndrome, which is characterized by unpleasant signs and symptoms, such as anxiety, that may trigger relapses. Ethanol, a psychotropic drug, is able to promote behavioral and neurophysiological changes, acting on different neurotransmitter systems, including the serotonergic, which has also been directly associated with aversive states, including anxiety. This study aimed to investigate the participation of type 7 serotonin receptor (5-HT7) of the dorsal periaqueductal gray (DPAG) on basal experimental anxiety and that caused by ethanol withdrawal. For this, 75-100 days old Wistar rats were subjected to two experiments. On the first one, animals underwent stereotactic surgery for implantation of guide cannulas used for administration of the drug directly into the DPAG. After seven days, the animals received doses of 2.5; 5 and 10 nmols of type 7 receptor antagonist SB269970 (SB) or vehicle intra-DPAG and, ten minutes after, they were exposed to elevated plus maze (EPM). In the following day, the animals were submitted to the same treatment and tested in the open field (OF). In the second experiment, animals received increasing concentrations (2%, 4%, 6%) of ethanol as the only source of liquid diet or water (control group), both with free access to chow. Seventy two hours and ninety six hours after the ethanol withdrawal, animals received SB (2.5 and 5.0 nmols) intraDPAG ten minutes before the test in the LCE and OF, respectively. In experiment 1, the dose of antagonist 10 nmols was able of reversing the anxiety generated by EPM. In the experiment 2, ineffective SB doses on the LCE (2.5 and 5.0 nmol) were not able to reverse the anxiety caused by the ethanol withdrawal in the EPM, although the dose of 2.5 nmols of SB has reversed its hipolocomotor effect in this test. This result suggests that the 5-HT7 receptor is involved in the modulation of the basal experimental anxiety in rats, but not in the anxiety caused by ethanol withdrawal in the DPAG.

Avaliação dos efeitos da retirada do etanol em curto e longo prazo sobre respostas comportamentais relacionadas à ansiedade e sobre células imunorreativas para a serotonina no núcleo dorsal da Rafe em ratas

Ethanol withdrawn individuals present a wealth of signs and symptoms, some of them related with anxiety. To better understand brain areas involved in anxiety caused by ethanol abstinence, preclinical studies have been employing models of ethanol consumption followed by withdrawal in rodents submitted to behavioral tests of anxiety, such as the elevated plus-maze. The aim of this study was to investigate if short- or long-term ethanol withdrawal could alter both anxiety-related behaviors in the elevated plus-maze (EPM) and open field tests and the number of serotonin immunorreactive cels in the dorsal raphe nucleus, a midbrain area associated with anxiety. Female Wistar rats (90 days old) were submitted to increasing concentrations of ethanol (2% for 3 days, 4% for 3 days and 6% for 15 days) as the only source of liquid diet and the control group received water ad libitum. Both groups received food ad libitum. In the behavioral experiments, on 21st day of consumption, ethanol was substituted by water (withdrawal) and 72 h or 21 days after withdrawal animals were submitted to the EPM, where it was evaluated the percentage of time and entries in the open arms and the entries in the enclosed arms during 5 minutes. Twenty and four hours after testing in the EPM, animals were submitted to the open field test for 15 minutes, where the distance traveled by the animals was observed along this period. During the first 5 minutes, the distance traveled, entries and time spent in the center of the test were analyzed. In the immunohistochemistry study, animals were submitted to 21 days of consumption of ethanol followed or not by 72 hours and 21 days of withdrawal previously perfusion, brain tissue preparation and quantification of serotonin dyed cells in the dorsal and caudal portions in the dorsal raphe nucleus. Behavioral data showed that both short- and long-term ethanol withdrawals reduced the open arms exploration in the EPM. In the open field test there were no locomotor activity changes during the total 15 minutes; however, longterm ethanol withdrawal reduced the exploration in the center of the open field during the first 5 minutes. In the immunohistochemistry step, there were no differences, when short- and long-term withdrawn groups were compared with control group; nevertheless, the chronic consumption of ethanol decreased the number of serotonergic immunorreactive cells in the dorsal part of dorsal raphe nucleus. Taken together, results here obtained suggest that both short- and long-term ethanol withdrawals promoted an anxiogenic-like effect that was not related with changes in the serotonin immunorreactivity in the dorsal and caudal parts of the dorsal raphe nucleus.

Distributed Power balance and damping control for high power multiport LCL DC hub

This project is funded by European Research Council in FP7; grant no 259328, 2010 and EPSRC grant no EP/K006428/1, 2013.

Distributed Power balance and damping control for high power multiport LCL DC hub

This project is funded by European Research Council in FP7; grant no 259328, 2010 and EPSRC grant no EP/K006428/1, 2013.

Problems in Algebraic Vision

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Panossyöttökasvatusprosessin automatisointi

Tutkimuskäyttöön tarkoitettujen rekombinanttiproteiinien tuottaminen fermentoimalla on yleinen menetelmä bioteollisuudessa. Mikrobit kasvatetaan fermentorissa, joka tarjoaa kontrolloidun kasvuympäristön ja sopivat tuotto-olosuhteet halutulle tuotteelle. Eräs fermentointimuodoista on korkeatuottoinen ja pitkäkestoinen panossyöttökasvatus, jossa saavutetaan panoskavatusta merkittävästi korkeampi solutiheys jatkamalla panosvaiheen jälkeen kasvua rajoittavan substraatin syöttöä. Laboratoriomittakaavassa fermentorikasvatusten tilavuudet vaihtelevat litrasta kymmeniin ja niissä kasvatusta seurataan sekä ohjataan joko fermentorista tai tietokoneesta. Tyypillisessä fermentointiprosessissa operaattori tarkkailee muun muassa vaahdonkorkeutta sekä käynnistää pumppuja olosuhteiden muuttuessa. Tällaiset tehtävät ovat teollisen mittakaavan laitteistoissa usein automatisoituja. Diplomityön tarkoituksena oli päivittää kahden Turun yliopiston biotekniikan laboratoriossa sijaitsevan BioFlo® -sarjan pöytäfermentorin MS-DOS -pohjainen tietokoneohjausohjelma nykyaikaiseksi ja lisätä siihen etäseuranta ja -ohjaus. Ohjelmaan oli tarkoitus liittää erillinen optinen solutiheysanturi, jonka lukemien häiriötä haluttiin myös vähentää signaalinkäsittelyllä. Lisäksi vaahdonestoaineen ja indusorin lisäykset haluttiin automatisoida panossyöttökasvatuksessa. Vaahdonkorkeuden havaitsemisen mahdollisuutta konenäön menetelmin haluttiin selvittää, jotta vaahdonestoaineen automaattiset lisäykset voitaisiin toteuttaa nettikameran syötteen perusteella. Koekasvatuksilla osoitettiin päivitetyn ohjausohjelman toimivan panos- ja panossyöttömuodoilla. Uuden käyttöliittymän avulla pystyttiin automatisoimaan panoskasvatuksen lisäykset ja syöttönopeuden muutokset sekä tunnistamaan kasvatusliuosten vaahdonkorkeutta vaahdonestoaineen lisäykseen riittävällä kahden senttimetrin tarkkuudella. Lisäksi käyttöliittymä mahdollisti kasvatuksen ohjauksen ja seurauksen myös etänä. Työssä kehitetty ohjausohjelma julkaistiin avoimena ohjelmana ilman etä- ja nettikameratoimintoja. Ohjelma toimii hyvin BioFlo® -sarjan fermentorien käyttöliittymänä, mutta avoimen lähdekoodin ansiosta kuka tahansa voi hyödyntää ohjelmaa pohjana myös uusissa projekteissa tai muissa fermentorimalleissa.

Investigation on possibility of survival and growth enhancing by selected seaweeds from Persian Gulf in post larvae shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei

The use of antibiotics in aquaculture has been limited. Scientifics seeking for natural substitutes to prevent of aquatic animals diseases. Considering seaweeds are rich of nutritions and bioactive compounds, the purpose of this study is: investigation the potential and use possibility of native seaweeds from Persian Gulf in shrimp aquculture industry to improve growth, survival of postlarvae and to resistance against pathogens such as vibriosis. For this propose 7 macroalgae species from Bushehr province coast, inclouding: green algae (C. iyengarii), brown algae (S. angutifolium and S. ilicifolium) and red algae (L. snyderiae, K. alvarezii and G. corticata) were collected and identified. Then seaweed extracts abtained by Water, Ethanol, Methanol and Chloroform solvents by soaking method. In vitro antibacterial activity of extracts against Gr+ bacteria (S. aureus and B. subtilis) and Gr- bacteria (V. harveyi, V. alginolyticus and E. coli) was conducted by Agar diffusion, MIC and MBC methods. Antioxidant activity also by DPPH and EC50 methods was investigated. According to results of these two tests four seaweeds species (S. angutifolium, L. snyderiae, K. alvarezii and G. corticata) were selected for use in shrimp postlarvae (PL22) diets by Bio-Encapsulation (Artemia enrichment). Before of enrichment, toxicity effect of extracts to Artemia nauplii were evaluated by determination of LC50 24 h method. From results of this section Ethanol extracts were selected to bioencapsulation. After encapsulation shrimp postlarvae divided to 12 groups in triplicate, namely: C-, C+, S (200), S (400), S (600), L(200), L(400), L(600), G(300), G(600), K(300) and K(600). During 30 days of reared period C- and C+ use of basal diet and unenriched Artemia, but the other groups use of basal diet and enriched Artemia. Except C-, the shrimps in first day of culture put in 107 cfu/ml v. harveyi suspension for 30 minutes, and after water exchange 10 ml of this dose was added to reared aquaria. After 30 days survival percentage, obtained weight and SGR% were investigated. To evaluate vibrio loading, every 10 days 5 postlarvae were sampled randomly for vibrio count. Results showed that vibrio count in C- was less than the others and in C+ was more than the others. In treatments vibrio count in L(200) was the most and L(600) was the less. Survival rate in C- was the most and after that G(600) with 79.4±6.6% and then S(300) and K(600) were 73.3±7.3% and 70.6±6.6% respectively that were significantly compare the other (P < 0.01). Also the C+ was the less with 33.3±6.6% that difference was significant (P< 0.01). In this study growth parameters of all groups that fed by enriched Artemia were better than C+ (P<0.05). After cultre period 10 shrimp of every aquarium disinfected and reared for 10 days like before treatment. After 10 days the shrimps were challenged by 3×108 cfu/ml V. harveyi and mortality was recorded for 7 days. The all of animals in C- were survive but more than 90% of C+ were dead. And survival in all of treatments were better the C+ (P<0.05). The study showed the ethanol extracts of selected seaweed from Persian Gulf is a good source for growth, Survival and disease control in shrimp larviculture.

Caracterización de bacterias filamentosas en el funcionamiento de un reactor aerobio de la planta de tratamiento de aguas residuales de origen cervecero

La actividad industrial y el desarrollo material y económico, han traído como consecuencia la contaminación del aire, agua y el suelo; lo que ocasiona modificaciones físicas químicas y biológicas que han producido un deterioro en la calidad del agua, dando como resultado problemas de contaminación que afectan tanto la productividad de los sistemas como la salud humana. A las aguas de composición variada provenientes de uso municipal, industrial, comercial, agrícola, pecuario, o de cualquier otra índole, ya sea privada o pública que han sufrido una degradación o alteración en su calidad original se le conoce como agua residual. Este trabajo tiene como objetivo “Caracterizar las bacterias filamentosas en el funcionamiento de un reactor aerobio de la planta de tratamiento de aguas residuales de origen cervecero” para ello se estudió durante varios meses los parámetros físico-químicos y biológicos para poder así controlar de las bacterias filamentosas y así evitar en un futuro problemas de operación o poder controlar su crecimiento y por ende, ecológicos dentro del sistema de lodos activados. La identificación se realizó tomando muestras en el reactor aerobio y realizándole la tinción de Gram para posteriormente ser vistos en un microscopio de una resolución de 100x; luego se caracterizaron las bacterias juntas con los parámetros de operación del tanque de lodos por muestra y los resultados encontrados fueron la presencia de filamentos Microtrix Parvicella, Tipo 021N, y Sp1 (llamada así por no ser identificada, ni encontrada en la literatura), esta es una nueva especie encontrada, ya que es propia de este reactor aerobio y crecen principalmente en aguas cerveceras y por deficiencia de nutrientes en el sistema. Este trabajo nos permitió conocer la dinámica que existe entre los parámetros fisicoquímicos y los microorganismos que se encuentran en un biorreactor Aerobio. Esto nos llevó a comprender mejor el funcionamiento de estos sistemas dentro de plantas de aguas residuales de tipo industrial. ABSTRACT Industrial activity and the physical and economic development have resulted in contamination of air, water and soil, causing physical chemical and biological changes that have produced deterioration in water quality, resulting in pollution problems affects the productivity of the systems and human health. A varied composition waters from municipal, industrial, commercial, agricultural, livestock, or any other use, whether private or public who have suffered a degradation or alteration in their original quality is known as residual water. This work aims to "characterize filamentous bacteria in the operation of an aerobic reactor plant wastewater treatment brewer origin" for this physicochemical and biological parameters were studied for several months to thereby control bacteria stringy and avoid future problems in operation or to control their growth and thus ecological This work aims to "characterize filamentous bacteria in the operation of an aerobic reactor plant wastewater treatment brewer origin" for this physicochemical and biological parameters were studied for several months to thereby control bacteria stringy and avoid future problems in operation or to control their growth and thus ecological within the activated sludge system. This work allowed us to understand the dynamics between physicochemical parameters and microorganisms found in an aerobic bioreactor. This led us to better understand the operation of these systems within plants industrial wastewater.

Endoscopic optical coherence tomography : design and application

This thesis presents an investigation on endoscopic optical coherence tomography (OCT). As a noninvasive imaging modality, OCT emerges as an increasingly important diagnostic tool for many clinical applications. Despite of many of its merits, such as high resolution and depth resolvability, a major limitation is the relatively shallow penetration depth in tissue (about 2∼3 mm). This is mainly due to tissue scattering and absorption. To overcome this limitation, people have been developing many different endoscopic OCT systems. By utilizing a minimally invasive endoscope, the OCT probing beam can be brought to the close vicinity of the tissue of interest and bypass the scattering of intervening tissues so that it can collect the reflected light signal from desired depth and provide a clear image representing the physiological structure of the region, which can not be disclosed by traditional OCT. In this thesis, three endoscope designs have been studied. While they rely on vastly different principles, they all converge to solve this long-standing problem.

A hand-held endoscope with manual scanning is first explored. When a user is holding a hand- held endoscope to examine samples, the movement of the device provides a natural scanning. We proposed and implemented an optical tracking system to estimate and record the trajectory of the device. By registering the OCT axial scan with the spatial information obtained from the tracking system, one can use this system to simply ‘paint’ a desired volume and get any arbitrary scanning pattern by manually waving the endoscope over the region of interest. The accuracy of the tracking system was measured to be about 10 microns, which is comparable to the lateral resolution of most OCT system. Targeted phantom sample and biological samples were manually scanned and the reconstructed images verified the method.

Next, we investigated a mechanical way to steer the beam in an OCT endoscope, which is termed as Paired-angle-rotation scanning (PARS). This concept was proposed by my colleague and we further developed this technology by enhancing the longevity of the device, reducing the diameter of the probe, and shrinking down the form factor of the hand-piece. Several families of probes have been designed and fabricated with various optical performances. They have been applied to different applications, including the collector channel examination for glaucoma stent implantation, and vitreous remnant detection during live animal vitrectomy.

Lastly a novel non-moving scanning method has been devised. This approach is based on the EO effect of a KTN crystal. With Ohmic contact of the electrodes, the KTN crystal can exhibit a special mode of EO effect, termed as space-charge-controlled electro-optic effect, where the carrier electron will be injected into the material via the Ohmic contact. By applying a high voltage across the material, a linear phase profile can be built under this mode, which in turn deflects the light beam passing through. We constructed a relay telescope to adapt the KTN deflector into a bench top OCT scanning system. One of major technical challenges for this system is the strong chromatic dispersion of KTN crystal within the wavelength band of OCT system. We investigated its impact on the acquired OCT images and proposed a new approach to estimate and compensate the actual dispersion. Comparing with traditional methods, the new method is more computational efficient and accurate. Some biological samples were scanned by this KTN based system. The acquired images justified the feasibility of the usage of this system into a endoscopy setting. My research above all aims to provide solutions to implement an OCT endoscope. As technology evolves from manual, to mechanical, and to electrical approaches, different solutions are presented. Since all have their own advantages and disadvantages, one has to determine the actual requirements and select the best fit for a specific application.

Aplicação de sistemas microemulsionados ácidos em acidificação de poços

Stimulation operations have with main objective restore or improve the productivity or injectivity rate in wells. Acidizing is one of the most important operations of well stimulation, consist in inject acid solutions in the formation under fracture formation pressure. Acidizing have like main purpose remove near wellbore damage, caused by drilling or workover operations, can be use in sandstones and in carbonate formations. A critical step in acidizing operation is the control of acid-formation reaction. The high kinetic rate of this reaction, promotes the consumed of the acid in region near well, causing that the acid treatment not achive the desired distance. In this way, the damage zone can not be bypassed. The main objective of this work was obtain stable systems resistant to the different conditions found in field application, evaluate the kinetic of calcite dissolution in microemulsion systems and simulate the injection of this systems by performing experiments in plugs. The systems were obtained from two non ionic surfactants, Unitol L90 and Renex 110, with sec-butanol and n-butanol like cosurfactants. The oily component of the microemlsion was xilene and kerosene. The acqueous component was a solution of HCl 15-26,1%. The results shown that the microemulsion systems obtained were stable to temperature until 100ºC, high calcium concentrations, salinity until 35000 ppm and HCl concentrations until 25%. The time for calcite dissolution in microemulsion media was 14 times slower than in aqueous HCl 15%. The simulation in plugs showed that microemulsion systems promote a distributed flux and promoted longer channels. The permeability enhancement was between 177 - 890%. The results showed that the microemulsion systems obtained have potential to be applied in matrix acidizing