Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

Simulation of Drosophila circadian oscillations, mutations, and light responses by a model with VRI, PDP-1, and CLK.

A model of Drosophila circadian rhythm generation was developed to represent feedback loops based on transcriptional regulation of per, Clk (dclock), Pdp-1, and vri (vrille). The model postulates that histone acetylation kinetics make transcriptional activation a nonlinear function of [CLK]. Such a nonlinearity is essential to simulate robust circadian oscillations of transcription in our model and in previous models. Simulations suggest that two positive feedback loops involving Clk are not essential for oscillations, because oscillations of [PER] were preserved when Clk, vri, or Pdp-1 expression was fixed. However, eliminating positive feedback by fixing vri expression altered the oscillation period. Eliminating the negative feedback loop in which PER represses per expression abolished oscillations. Simulations of per or Clk null mutations, of per overexpression, and of vri, Clk, or Pdp-1 heterozygous null mutations altered model behavior in ways similar to experimental data. The model simulated a photic phase-response curve resembling experimental curves, and oscillations entrained to simulated light-dark cycles. Temperature compensation of oscillation period could be simulated if temperature elevation slowed PER nuclear entry or PER phosphorylation. The model makes experimental predictions, some of which could be tested in transgenic Drosophila.

A reduced model clarifies the role of feedback loops and time delays in the Drosophila circadian oscillator.

Although several detailed models of molecular processes essential for circadian oscillations have been developed, their complexity makes intuitive understanding of the oscillation mechanism difficult. The goal of the present study was to reduce a previously developed, detailed model to a minimal representation of the transcriptional regulation essential for circadian rhythmicity in Drosophila. The reduced model contains only two differential equations, each with time delays. A negative feedback loop is included, in which PER protein represses per transcription by binding the dCLOCK transcription factor. A positive feedback loop is also included, in which dCLOCK indirectly enhances its own formation. The model simulated circadian oscillations, light entrainment, and a phase-response curve with qualitative similarities to experiment. Time delays were found to be essential for simulation of circadian oscillations with this model. To examine the robustness of the simplified model to fluctuations in molecule numbers, a stochastic variant was constructed. Robust circadian oscillations and entrainment to light pulses were simulated with fewer than 80 molecules of each gene product present on average. Circadian oscillations persisted when the positive feedback loop was removed. Moreover, elimination of positive feedback did not decrease the robustness of oscillations to stochastic fluctuations or to variations in parameter values. Such reduced models can aid understanding of the oscillation mechanisms in Drosophila and in other organisms in which feedback regulation of transcription may play an important role.

Specific, Reversible Cytostatic Protection of Normal Cells Against Negative Effects of Chemotherapy

Chemotherapy is a common and effective method to treat many forms of cancer. However, treatment of cancer with chemotherapy has severe side effects which often limit the doses of therapy administered. Because some cancer chemotherapeutics target proliferating cells and tissues, all dividing cells, whether normal or tumor, are affected. Cell culture studies have demonstrated that UCN-01 is able to reversibly and selectively arrest normal dividing cells; tumor cells lines do not undergo this temporary arrest. Following UCN-01 treatment, normal cells displayed a 50-fold increase in IC50 for camptothecin; tumor cells showed no such increased tolerance. We have examined the response of the proliferating tissues of the mouse to UCN- 01 treatment, using the small bowel epithelium as a model system. Our results indicate that UCN-01 treatment can cause a cell cycle arrest in the gut epithelium, beginning 24 hours following UCN-01 administration, with cell proliferation remaining suppressed for one week. Two weeks post-UCN-01 treatment the rate of proliferation returns to normal levels. 5-FU administered during this period demonstrates that UCN-01 is able to provide protection to normal cells of the mouse within a narrow window of efficacy, from three to five days post-UCN-01. UCN-01 pretreated mice displayed improved survival, weight status and blood markers following 5-FU compared to control mice, indicating that UCN-01 can protect normal dividing tissues. The mechanism by which UCN-01 arrests normal cells in vivo was also examined. We have demonstrated that UCN-01 treatment in mice causes an increase in the G1 phase cell cycle proteins cdk4 and cyclin D, as well as the inhibitor p27. Phosphorylated Rb was also elevated in the arrested cells. These results are a departure from cell culture studies, in which inhibition of G1 phase cyclin dependent kinases led to hyposphosphorylation of Rb. Future investigation will be required to understand the mechanism of UCN-01 action. This is important information, especially for identification of alternate compounds which could provide the protection afforded by UCN-01.

Cryo-EM model of the bullet-shaped vesicular stomatitis virus.

Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) is a bullet-shaped rhabdovirus and a model system of negative-strand RNA viruses. Through direct visualization by means of cryo-electron microscopy, we show that each virion contains two nested, left-handed helices: an outer helix of matrix protein M and an inner helix of nucleoprotein N and RNA. M has a hub domain with four contact sites that link to neighboring M and N subunits, providing rigidity by clamping adjacent turns of the nucleocapsid. Side-by-side interactions between neighboring N subunits are critical for the nucleocapsid to form a bullet shape, and structure-based mutagenesis results support this description. Together, our data suggest a mechanism of VSV assembly in which the nucleocapsid spirals from the tip to become the helical trunk, both subsequently framed and rigidified by the M layer.

Differential gene expression in multistep tumorigenesis using an {\it in vitro\/} human cell model

Using a human terato-carcinoma cell line, PA-1, the functional role of the oncogenes and tumor suppressor gene involved in the multistep process of carcinogenesis have been analyzed. The expression of AP-2 was strongly correlated with the susceptibility to ras transformation. The differential responsiveness to growth factors between stage 1 ras resistant cells and stage 2 ras susceptible cells was observed, indicating that the ability of stage 2 cells to respond to the mutated ras oncogenes in transformation correlated with the ability to be stimulated by certain growth factors. Using differential screening of cDNA libraries, a number of differentially expressed cDNA clones was isolated. One of those, clone 12, is overexpressed in ras transformed stage 3 cells. The amino acid sequence of clone 12 is almost identical to a mouse LLrep3 gene that was growth-regulated, and 78% similar to a yeast ribosomal protein S4. These results suggest that the S4 gene may be involved in regulation of growth. Clone 9 is expressed in stage 1 ras resistant cells (3.5-kb and 3.0-kb transcripts) but the expression of this clone in stage 2 ras susceptible cells and stage 3 ras-transformed cells is greatly diminished. The expression of this cDNA clone was increased to at least five fold in ras resistant cells and nontumorigenic hybrids treated with retinoic acid but not increased in retinoic acid treated ras susceptible cells, ras transformed cells and the tumorigenic segregants. Partial sequence of this clone showed no homology to the sequences in Genbank. These findings suggest that clone 9 could be a suppressor gene or the genes that are involved in the biochemical pathway of tumor suppression or neurogenic differentiation. The apparent pleiotropic effect of the loss of this suppressor gene function support Harris' proposal that tumor suppressor genes regulate differentiation. The tumor suppressor gene may act as negative regulator of tumor growth by controlling gene expression in differentiation. ^

Elderly age is not a negative predictive factor for virological response to therapy with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C virus patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis C. However, elderly patients often show advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis as known negative predictive factor. The aim of this study was to assess age as an independent predictive factor during antiviral therapy. METHODS: Overall, 516 hepatitis C patients were treated with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin, thereof 66 patients ≥60 years. We analysed the impact of host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, previous hepatitis C treatment) and viral factors (genotype, viral load) on SVR per therapy course by performing a generalized estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling, a matched pair analysis and a classification tree analysis. RESULTS: Overall, SVR per therapy course was 42.9 and 26.1%, respectively, in young and elderly patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes 1/4/6. The corresponding figures for HCV genotypes 2/3 were 74.4 and 84%. In the GEE model, age had no significant influence on achieving SVR. In matched pair analysis, SVR was not different in young and elderly patients (54.2 and 55.9% respectively; P = 0.795 in binominal test). In classification tree analysis, age was not a relevant splitting variable. CONCLUSIONS: Age is not a significant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when relevant confounders are taken into account. As life expectancy in Western Europe at age 60 is more than 20 years, it is reasonable to treat chronic hepatitis C in selected elderly patients with relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis but without major concomitant diseases, as SVR improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

Coherence and phase locking in the scalp EEG and between LORETA model sources, and microstates as putative mechanisms of brain temporo-spatial functional organization

Brain electric mechanisms of temporary, functional binding between brain regions are studied using computation of scalp EEG coherence and phase locking, sensitive to time differences of few milliseconds. However, such results if computed from scalp data are ambiguous since electric sources are spatially oriented. Non-ambiguous results can be obtained using calculated time series of strength of intracerebral model sources. This is illustrated applying LORETA modeling to EEG during resting and meditation. During meditation, time series of LORETA model sources revealed a tendency to decreased left-right intracerebral coherence in the delta band, and to increased anterior-posterior intracerebral coherence in the theta band. An alternate conceptualization of functional binding is based on the observation that brain electric activity is discontinuous, i.e., that it occurs in chunks of up to about 100 ms duration that are detectable as quasi-stable scalp field configurations of brain electric activity, called microstates. Their functional significance is illustrated in spontaneous and event-related paradigms, where microstates associated with imagery- versus abstract-type mentation, or while reading positive versus negative emotion words showed clearly different regions of cortical activation in LORETA tomography. These data support the concept that complete brain functions of higher order such as a momentary thought might be incorporated in temporal chunks of processing in the range of tens to about 100 ms as quasi-stable brain states; during these time windows, subprocesses would be accepted as members of the ongoing chunk of processing.

A new model construction by making a detour via intuitionistic theories I: Operational set theory without choice is Π1-equivalent to KP

We introduce a version of operational set theory, OST−, without a choice operation, which has a machinery for Δ0Δ0 separation based on truth functions and the separation operator, and a new kind of applicative set theory, so-called weak explicit set theory WEST, based on Gödel operations. We show that both the theories and Kripke–Platek set theory KPKP with infinity are pairwise Π1Π1 equivalent. We also show analogous assertions for subtheories with ∈-induction restricted in various ways and for supertheories extended by powerset, beta, limit and Mahlo operations. Whereas the upper bound is given by a refinement of inductive definition in KPKP, the lower bound is by a combination, in a specific way, of realisability, (intuitionistic) forcing and negative interpretations. Thus, despite interpretability between classical theories, we make “a detour via intuitionistic theories”. The combined interpretation, seen as a model construction in the sense of Visser's miniature model theory, is a new way of construction for classical theories and could be said the third kind of model construction ever used which is non-trivial on the logical connective level, after generic extension à la Cohen and Krivine's classical realisability model.

Invisible social control as predictor of daily negative affect and smoking after a self-set quit date

The dual-effects model of social control proposes that social control leads to increased psychological distress but also to better health practices. However, findings are inconsistent, and recent research suggests that the most effective control is unnoticed by the receiver (i. e., invisible). Yet, investigations of the influence of invisible control on daily negative affect and smoking have been limited. Using daily diaries, we investigated how invisible social control was associated with negative affect and smoking. Overall, 100 smokers (72.0 % men, age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their nonsmoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date for 22 consecutive days, reporting received and provided social control, negative affect, and daily smoking. We found in multilevel analyses of the within-person process that on days with higher-than-average invisible control, smokers reported more negative affect and fewer cigarettes smoked. Findings are in line with the assumptions of the dual-effects model of social control: Invisible social control increased daily negative affect and simultaneously reduced smoking at the within-person level.

Examining Gender Differences in Received, Provided and Invisible Social Control: An Application of the Dual-Effects-Model

The dual-effects model of social control not only assumes that social control leads to better health practices but also arouses psychological distress. However, findings are inconsistent. The present study advances the current literature by examining social control from a dyadic perspective in the context of smoking. In addition, the study examines whether control, continuous smoking abstinence, and affect are differentially related for men and women. Before and three weeks after a self-set quit attempt, we examined 106 smokers (77 men, mean age: 40.67, average number of cigarettes smoked per day: 16.59 [SD=8.52, range=1-40] at baseline and 5.27 [SD=6.97, range=0-40] at follow-up) and their nonsmoking heterosexual partners, assessing received and provided control, continuous abstinence, and affect. With regard to smoker's affective reactions, partner's provided control was related to an increase in positive and to a decrease in negative affect, but only for female smokers. Moreover, the greater the discrepancy between smoker received and partner's provided control was the more positive affect increased and the more negative affect decreased, but again only for female smokers. These findings demonstrate that female smokers' well-being was raised over time if they were not aware of the control attempts of their nonsmoking partners, indicating positive effects of invisible social control. This study's results emphasize the importance of applying a dyadic perspective and taking gender differences in the dual-effects model of social control into account.

Examining invisible social control as predictor of daily smoking and negative affect after a self-set quit date

Objectives: The dual-effects model of social control proposes that social control leads to better health practices, but also arouses psychological distress. However, findings are inconsistent in relation to health behavior and psychological distress. Recent research suggests that the most effective control is unnoticed by the receiver (i.e., invisible). There is some evidence that invisible social control is beneficial for positive and negative affective reactions. Yet, investigations of the influence of invisible social control on daily smoking and distress have been limited. In daily diaries, we investigated how invisible social control is associated with number of cigarettes smoked and negative affect on a daily basis. Methods: Overall, 99 smokers (72.0% men, mean age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their non-smoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date for 22 consecutive days within the hour before going to bed, reporting received and provided social control, daily number of cigarettes smoked, and negative affect. Results: Multilevel analyses indicated that between-person levels of invisible social control were associated with lower negative affect, whereas they were unrelated to number of cigarettes smoked. On days with higher-than-average invisible social control, smokers reported less cigarettes smoked and more negative affect. Conclusions: Between-person level findings indicate that invisible social control can be beneficial for negative affect. However, findings on the within-person level are in line with the assumptions of the dual-effects model of social control: Invisible social control reduced daily smoking and simultaneously increased daily negative affect within person.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Effect of Combined Systemic and Local Morpholino Treatment on the Spinal Muscular Atrophy Δ7 Mouse Model Phenotype

BACKGROUND: Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a fatal motor neuron disease of childhood that is caused by mutations in the SMN1 gene. Currently, no effective treatment is available. One possible therapeutic approach is the use of antisense oligos (ASOs) to redirect the splicing of the paralogous gene SMN2, thus increasing functional SMN protein production. Various ASOs with different chemical properties are suitable for these applications, including a morpholino oligomer (MO) variant with a particularly excellent safety and efficacy profile. OBJECTIVE: We investigated a 25-nt MO sequence targeting the negative intronic splicing silencer (ISS-N1) 10 to 34 region. METHODS: We administered a 25-nt MO sequence against the ISS-N1 region of SMN2 (HSMN2Ex7D[-10-34]) in the SMAΔ7 mouse model and evaluated the effect and neuropathologic phenotype. We tested different concentrations (from 2 to 24 nM) and delivery protocols (intracerebroventricular injection, systemic injection, or both). We evaluated the treatment efficacy regarding SMN levels, survival, neuromuscular phenotype, and neuropathologic features. RESULTS: We found that a 25-nt MO sequence against the ISS-N1 region of SMN2 (HSMN2Ex7D[-10-34]) exhibited superior efficacy in transgenic SMAΔ7 mice compared with previously described sequences. In our experiments, the combination of local and systemic administration of MO (bare or conjugated to octaguanidine) was the most effective approach for increasing full-length SMN expression, leading to robust improvement in neuropathologic features and survival. Moreover, we found that several small nuclear RNAs were deregulated in SMA mice and that their levels were restored by MO treatment. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that MO-mediated SMA therapy is efficacious and can result in phenotypic rescue, providing important insights for further development of ASO-based therapeutic strategies in SMA patients.

Integrating attentional control theory and the strength model of self-control

In the present article, we argue that it may be fruitful to incorporate the ideas of the strength model of self-control into the core assumptions of the well-established attentional control theory (ACT). In ACT, it is assumed that anxiety automatically leads to attention disruption and increased distractibility, which may impair subsequent cognitive or perceptual-motor performance, but only if individuals do not have the ability to counteract this attention disruption. However, ACT does not clarify which process determines whether one can volitionally regulate attention despite experiencing high levels of anxiety. In terms of the strength model of self-control, attention regulation can be viewed as a self-control act depending on the momentary availability of self-control strength. We review literature that has revealed that self-control strength moderates the anxiety-performance relationship, discuss how to integrate these two theoretical models, and offer practical recommendations of how to counteract negative anxiety effects.