Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

from "The Roving Party"

They walked down through a dry creek bed lined with swamp gums grown so close together they appeared as one living whole. The men passed around these trees in single file, among sun shafts which pierced the canopy but threw no light upon their faces nor warmed their bones. In the gloom the air was thick with flies and the mushrooms grew like the sightless larvae of some queer and unnamed vermin. Before long they found themselves among a stand of trees which had been stripped of their bark for windbreaks. The naked trunks were carved over with bisected circles, detailings of the moon and sun, images of snakes and roo. The Parramatta men gazed at the finely wrought icons but John Batman found more to hold his attention. Pressed onto the flesh of the tree was a bloody handprint. Batman removed his hat and crouched to examine the ground and Black Bill joined him. One injured man had passed this way...

"Like a monkey with a miniature cymbal": Cultural practices of repetition in visual social media

Looping media are recurring components of online content, from gifs to Vine videos, in addition to the conceptual repetition of memes and related practices. This paper analyses practices around looping visual media as examples of vernacular creativity, social media literacies, and internet culture, especially for irreverent and playful purposes. Focusing on the LGBTQ digital cultural context as a pilot study, this research examines multi-platform uses of looping media, including personal narratives through Vine videos and animated gifs on Tumblr. In addition to textual analysis of LGBTQ looping visual social media content, the study will further explore the platform context as part of the experience of looped media. The research will address how these factors may also contribute to practices of irreverence and play, both within the specific case of LGBTQ culture and internet culture more generally.

The role of transition metal oxides in the decomposition and explosion of arylammonium perchlorates

The influence of MnO2, CuO, and NiO on the thermal decomposition and explosivity of arylammonium perchlorates has been studied by differential thermal analysis (DTA) and explosive sensitivity measurements. The metal oxides considerably sensitize both decomposition and explosion and the sensitizing effect is in the order NiO < CuO < MnO2. The accelerated decomposition or explosion seems to occur via the formation of an intermediate, metal perchlorate arylamine complex. The experimental evidence for the mechanism put forward has been included.

Achievements in forest tree genetic improvement in Australia and New Zealand 2: Development of Corymbia species and hybrids for plantations in eastern Australia

This paper describes the establishment of provenance seedling seed orchards of three spotted gums and cadaga (all species of Corymbia ex Eucalyptus). It also discusses the limitations of growing the spotted gums as pure species including: lack of mass flowering, susceptibility to a fungal shoot blight and low amenability to vegetative propagation. These limitations, together with observation of putative natural hybrids of the spotted gums with cadaga, and the early promise of manipulated hybrids, led to an intensive breeding and testing program. Many hybrid families have significant advantages in growth and tolerance to disease, insects and frost, and can be vegetatively propagated. They also exhibit broad environmental plasticity, allowing the best varieties to be planted across a wider range of sites than the spotted gums, resulting in more land being suitable for plantation development.

Plant hosts of the phytoplasmas and rickettsia-like-organisms associated with strawberry lethal yellows and green petal diseases

Candidatus Phytoplasma australiense (Ca. P. australiense) is associated with the plant diseases strawberry lethal yellows (SLY), strawberry green petal (SGP), papaya dieback (PDB), Australian grapevine yellows (AGY) and Phormium yellow leaf (PYL; New Zealand). Strawberry lethal yellows disease is also associated with a rickettsia-like-organism (RLO) or infrequently with the tomato big bud (TBB) phytoplasma, the latter being associated with a wide range of plant diseases throughout Australia. In contrast, the RLO has been identified only in association with SLY disease, and Ca. P. australiense has been detected only in a limited number of plant host species. The aim of this study was to identify plant hosts that are possible reservoirs of Ca. P. australiense and the SLY RLO. Thirty-one plant species from south-east Queensland were observed with disease between 2001 and 2003 and, of these, 18 species tested positive using phytoplasma-specific primers. The RLO was detected in diseased Jacksonia scoparia and Modiola caroliniana samples collected at Stanthorpe. The TBB phytoplasma was detected in 16 different plant species and Ca. P. australiense Australian grapevine yellows strain was detected in six species. The TBB phytoplasma was detected in plants collected at Nambour, Stanthorpe, Warwick and Brisbane. Ca. P. australiense was detected in plants collected at Nambour, Stanthorpe, Gatton and Allora. All four phytoplasmas were detected in diseased Gomphocarpus physocarpus plants collected at Toowoomba, Allora, Nambour and Gatton. These results indicated that the vector(s) of Ca. P. australiense are distributed throughout south-east Queensland and the diversity of phytoplasmas detected in G. physocarpus suggests it is a feeding source for phytoplasma insect vectors or it has a broad susceptibility to a range of phytoplasmas.

Rickettsia-like-organisms and phytoplasmas associated with diseases in Australian strawberries

Strawberry lethal yellows (SLY) disease in Australia is associated with the phytoplasmas Candidatus Phytoplasma australiense and tomato big bud, and a rickettsia-like-organism (RLO). Ca. P. australiense is also associated with strawberry green petal (SGP) disease. This study investigated the strength of the association of the different agents with SLY disease. We also documented the location of SLY or SGP plants, and measured whether they were RLO or phytoplasma positive. Symptomatic strawberry plants collected from south-east Queensland (Australia) between January 2000 and October 2002 were screened by PCR for both phytoplasmas and the RLO. Two previously unreported disease symptoms termed severe fruit distortion (SFD) and strawberry leaves from fruit (SLF) were observed during this study but there was no clear association between these symptoms and phytoplasmas or the RLO. Only two SGP diseased plants were observed and collected, compared with 363 plants with SLY disease symptoms. Of the 363 SLY samples, 117 tested positive for the RLO, 67 tested positive for Ca. P. australiense AGY strain and 11 plants tested positive for Ca. P. australiense PYL variant strain. On runner production farms at Stanthorpe, Queensland the RLO was detected in SLY diseased plants more frequently than for the phytoplasmas. On fruit production farms on the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Ca. P. australiense was detected in SLY disease plants more frequently than the RLO.

No-tillage and nitrogen application affects the decomposition of 15N-labelled wheat straw and the levels of mineral nitrogen and organic carbon in a Vertisol

No-tillage (NT) practice, where straw is retained on the soil surface, is increasingly being used in cereal cropping systems in Australia and elsewhere. Compared to conventional tillage (CT), where straw is mixed with the ploughed soil, NT practice may reduce straw decomposition, increase nitrogen immobilisation and increase organic carbon in the soil. This study examined 15N-labelled wheat straw (stubble) decomposition in four treatments (NT v. CT, with N rates of 0 and 75 kg/ha.year) and assessed the tillage and fertiliser N effects on mineral N and organic C and N levels over a 10-year period in a field experiment. NT practice decreased the rate of straw decomposition while fertiliser N application increased it. However, there was no tillage practice x N interaction. The mean residence time of the straw N in soil was more than twice as long under the NT (1.2 years) as compared to the CT practice (0.5 years). In comparison, differences in mean residence time due to N fertiliser treatment were small. However, tillage had generally very little effect on either the amounts of mineral N at sowing or soil organic C (and N) over the study period. While application of N fertiliser increased mineral N, it had very little effect on organic C over a 10-year period. Relatively rapid decomposition of straw and short mean residence time of straw N in a Vertisol is likely to have very little long-term effect on N immobilisation and organic C level in an annual cereal cropping system in a subtropical, semiarid environment. Thus, changing the tillage practice from CT to NT may not necessitate additional N requirement unless use is made of additional stored water in the soil or mineral N loss due to increased leaching is compensated for in N supply to crops.

Screening selected myrtaceous tree species for production of essential oils in northern Queensland

Trials to identify alternative cropping options to Melaleuca alternifolia for northern Queensland essential oil growers were established at Dimbulah and Innot Hot Springs in 2001. Seed sources of Asteromyrtus symphyocarpa (1,8-cineole form), Eucalyptus staigeriana (citral), Melaleuca cajuputi subsp. cajuputi (trans-nerolidol), M. ericifolia (d-linalool), M. quinquenervia (trans-nerolidol and viridiflorol forms) and M. viridiflora (methyl cinnamate) with potential to produce commercial foliar oils were evaluated. Information was gathered on their adaptability, growth and oil yields over 49 months and 52 months (two harvests) from planting at Dimbulah and Innot Hot Springs, respectively. Of the species and chemotypes evaluated, M. quinquenervia showed potential for commercial production of trans-nerolidol, a compound used in perfumery. It had a very high survival rate (96%) and yields could be expected to improve dramatically from the average 100 kg/ha per harvest achieved in these trials with further research into selection of seed source, control of insect damage and breeding for genetic improvement. M. cajuputi subsp. cajuputi gave a similar performance to M. quinquenervia. The rarity of the trans-nerolidol form of this species and remoteness of its natural occurrence are impediments to further planting and research. E. staigeriana, with second harvest yields of ~600 kg/ha, performed exceptionally well on both sites but potential for development is limited by the ready availability of competitively priced E. staigeriana oil produced in South America. Survival of M. ericifolia ranged from 62% to 82% at 32 months (second harvest) at Innot Hot Springs and was deemed a failure at Dimbulah with poor growth and low survival, raising a major question about the suitability of this species for cultivation in the seasonally dry tropics. Planting of this species on a wider scale in northern Queensland cannot be recommended until more is known about factors affecting its survival. A. symphyocarpa and M. viridiflora were too slow-growing to warrant further consideration as potential oil-producing species at this time.

Exploring Problem Decomposition in Conceptual Design

Design embraces several disciplines dedicated to the production of artifacts and services. These disciplines are quite independent and only recently has psychological interest focused on them. Nowadays, the psychological theories of design, also called design cognition literature, describe the design process from the information processing viewpoint. These models co-exist with the normative standards of how designs should be crafted. In many places there are concrete discrepancies between these two in a way that resembles the differences between the actual and ideal decision-making. This study aimed to explore the possible difference related to problem decomposition. Decomposition is a standard component of human problem-solving models and is also included in the normative models of design. The idea of decomposition is to focus on a single aspect of the problem at a time. Despite its significance, the nature of decomposition in conceptual design is poorly understood and has only been preliminary investigated. This study addressed the status of decomposition in conceptual design of products using protocol analysis. Previous empirical investigations have argued that there are implicit and explicit decomposition, but have not provided a theoretical basis for these two. Therefore, the current research began by reviewing the problem solving and design literature and then composing a cognitive model of the solution search of conceptual design. The result is a synthetic view which describes recognition and decomposition as the basic schemata for conceptual design. A psychological experiment was conducted to explore decomposition. In the test, sixteen (N=16) senior students of mechanical engineering created concepts for two alternative tasks. The concurrent think-aloud method and protocol analysis were used to study decomposition. The results showed that despite the emphasis on decomposition in the formal education, only few designers (N=3) used decomposition explicitly and spontaneously in the presented tasks, although the designers in general applied a top-down control strategy. Instead, inferring from the use of structured strategies, the designers always relied on implicit decomposition. These results confirm the initial observations found in the literature, but they also suggest that decomposition should be investigated further. In the future, the benefits and possibilities of explicit decomposition should be considered along with the cognitive mechanisms behind decomposition. After that, the current results could be reinterpreted.

Mossbauer Effect Study of the Thermal Decomposition in Hydrogen of Homogeneously Mixed Ferrous Nickel Oxalates with Different Iron to Nickel Ratios

Mossbauer effect and X-ray measurements are carried out on product samples of the thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and isothermal decomposition in hydrogen of homogeneously mixed ferrous nickel oxalates with different iron to nickel ratios. The formation of Fe-Ni alloy is obtained at considerably lower temperatures (z 300 "C) in each case. The Fe-Ni alloys obtained shift from iron-rich to nickel-rich composition as the nickel ratio in the mixed metal oxalates is increased. The formation of Pe-Ni Invar from mixed metal oxalate with Fe:Ni = 1:l is indicated in the early stages but not from those with Fe:Ni = 2: 1 or 64:36. An Produktproben von homogen verteilten Eisen-Nickeloxalaten mit unterschiedlichem Eisen- Nickel-Verhaltnis nach thermogravimetrischer Analyse (TGA) und isothermem Zerfall in Wasserstoff werden Mollbauereffekt- und Rontgenmessnngen durchgefuhrt. In allen Fiillen wird die Bildung der Fe-Ni-Legierung bei betriichtlich niedrigeren Temperaturen (= 300 "C) erhalten. Die erhaltenen Fe-Ni-Legierungen verschieben sich von der eisenreichen zur nickelreichen Zusrtmmensetzung, wenn das Nickelverhaltnis in dem BIetall-Mischoxalat erhoht wird. Die Bildung der Fe-Ni-lnvar-Legierung aus dem Metall-Mischoxalat mit Fe:Ni = 1 : 1 wird in fruhen Zustanden beobachtet, iedoch nicht aus Oxalaten mit Fe:Ni = 2:1 oder 64:36.

The acceptability, usability and short-term outcomes of Get Real: A web-based program for psychotic-like experiences (PLEs)

Background Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) are subclinical delusional ideas and perceptual disturbances that have been associated with a range of adverse mental health outcomes. This study reports a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the acceptability, usability and short term outcomes of Get Real, a web program for PLEs in young people. Methods Participants were twelve respondents to an online survey, who reported at least one PLE in the previous 3 months, and were currently distressed. Ratings of the program were collected after participants trialled it for a month. Individual semi-structured interviews then elicited qualitative feedback, which was analyzed using Consensual Qualitative Research (CQR) methodology. PLEs and distress were reassessed at 3 months post-baseline. Results User ratings supported the program's acceptability, usability and perceived utility. Significant reductions in the number, frequency and severity of PLE-related distress were found at 3 months follow-up. The CQR analysis identified four qualitative domains: initial and current understandings of PLEs, responses to the program, and context of its use. Initial understanding involved emotional reactions, avoidance or minimization, limited coping skills and non-psychotic attributions. After using the program, participants saw PLEs as normal and common, had greater self-awareness and understanding of stress, and reported increased capacity to cope and accept experiences. Positive responses to the program focused on its normalization of PLEs, usefulness of its strategies, self-monitoring of mood, and information putting PLEs into perspective. Some respondents wanted more specific and individualized information, thought the program would be more useful for other audiences, or doubted its effectiveness. The program was mostly used in low-stress situations. Conclusions The current study provided initial support for the acceptability, utility and positive short-term outcomes of Get Real. The program now requires efficacy testing in randomized controlled trials.

Comparison of decision tree, support vector machines, and Bayesian network approaches for classification of falls in Parkinson’s disease

Being able to accurately predict the risk of falling is crucial in patients with Parkinson’s dis- ease (PD). This is due to the unfavorable effect of falls, which can lower the quality of life as well as directly impact on survival. Three methods considered for predicting falls are decision trees (DT), Bayesian networks (BN), and support vector machines (SVM). Data on a 1-year prospective study conducted at IHBI, Australia, for 51 people with PD are used. Data processing are conducted using rpart and e1071 packages in R for DT and SVM, con- secutively; and Bayes Server 5.5 for the BN. The results show that BN and SVM produce consistently higher accuracy over the 12 months evaluation time points (average sensitivity and specificity > 92%) than DT (average sensitivity 88%, average specificity 72%). DT is prone to imbalanced data so needs to adjust for the misclassification cost. However, DT provides a straightforward, interpretable result and thus is appealing for helping to identify important items related to falls and to generate fallers’ profiles.

Subtypes of psychotic-like experiences are differentially associated with suicidal ideation, plans and attempts in young adults

Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) have been associated with increased risk of suicidality, but it is unclear whether the level of risk varies with different types of PLE. A cross-sectional online survey was completed by 1610 university students. Respondents completed the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences-15 (CAPE-P15) assessing PLEs on three subscales: Perceptual Abnormalities (PA), Persecutory Ideation (PI) and Bizarre Experiences (BE). Lifetime suicidal ideation, plans and attempts, cannabis, ecstasy and methamphetamine use and family history of mental disorder were also assessed. Multinomal logistic regression was used to examine unique determinants of lifetime suicidality, defined as any history of (i) suicidal ideation or plans and (ii) any attempt, relative to no lifetime history of suicidality. A lifetime history of PA and PI provided significant unique contributions to the prediction of suicide risk, after control for other significant predictors. BE were not associated with any suicide variable demonstrating the variation in risk of suicidality with different types of PLEs. Perceptual abnormalities and persecutory ideation as measured by the CAPE-P15 are the PLEs associated with a higher risk of lifetime suicidality.

Current CAPE-15: A measure of recent psychotic-like experiences and associated distress

Aim Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) are common in young people and are associated with both distress and adverse outcomes. The Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences-Positive Scale (CAPE-P) provides a 20-item measure of lifetime PLEs. A 15-item revision of this scale was recently published (CAPE-P15). Although the CAPE-P has been used to assess PLEs in the last 12 months, there is no version of the CAPE for assessing more recent PLEs (e.g. 3 months). This study aimed to determine the reliability and validity of the current CAPE-P15 and assess its relationship with current distress. Method A cross-sectional online survey of 489 university students (17–25 years) assessed lifetime and current substance use, current distress, and lifetime and 3-month PLEs on the CAPE-P15. Results Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that the current CAPE-P15 retained the same three-factor structure as the lifetime version consisting of persecutory ideation, bizarre experiences and perceptual abnormalities. The total score of the current version was lower than the lifetime version, but the two were strongly correlated (r = .64). The current version was highly predictive of generalized distress (r = .52) and indices that combined symptom frequency with associated distress did not confer greater predictive power than frequency alone. Conclusion This study provided preliminary data that the current CAPE-P15 provides a valid and reliable measure of current PLEs. The current CAPE-P15 is likely to have substantial practical utility if it is later shown to be sensitive to change, especially in prevention and early intervention for mental disorders in young people.