Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates

Estimating trajectories and parameters of dynamical systems from observations is a problem frequently encountered in various branches of science; geophysicists for example refer to this problem as data assimilation. Unlike as in estimation problems with exchangeable observations, in data assimilation the observations cannot easily be divided into separate sets for estimation and validation; this creates serious problems, since simply using the same observations for estimation and validation might result in overly optimistic performance assessments. To circumvent this problem, a result is presented which allows us to estimate this optimism, thus allowing for a more realistic performance assessment in data assimilation. The presented approach becomes particularly simple for data assimilation methods employing a linear error feedback (such as synchronization schemes, nudging, incremental 3DVAR and 4DVar, and various Kalman filter approaches). Numerical examples considering a high gain observer confirm the theory.

Thermal and visual performance of real and theoretical thermochromic glazing solutions for office buildings

Thermochromic windows are able to modulate their transmittance in both the visible and the near-infrared field as a function of their temperature. As a consequence, they allow to control the solar gains in summer, thus reducing the energy needs for space cooling. However, they may also yield a reduction in the daylight availability, which results in the energy consumption for indoor artificial lighting being increased. This paper investigates, by means of dynamic simulations, the application of thermochromic windows to an existing office building in terms of energy savings on an annual basis, while also focusing on the effects in terms of daylighting and thermal comfort. In particular, due attention is paid to daylight availability, described through illuminance maps and by the calculation of the daylight factor, which in several countries is subject thresholds. The study considers both a commercially available thermochromic pane and a series of theoretical thermochromic glazing. The expected performance is compared to static clear and reflective insulating glass units. The simulations are repeated in different climatic conditions, showing that the overall energy savings compared to clear glazing can range from around 5% for cold climates to around 20% in warm climates, while not compromising daylight availability. Moreover the role played by the transition temperature of the pane is examined, pointing out an optimal transition temperatures that is irrespective of the climatic conditions.

Rethinking the literature on the performance of Chinese multinational enterprises

We synthesize the literature on Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs) and find that much of the prior research is based on as few as a dozen case studies of Chinese firms. They are so case-specific that it has led to a misplaced call for new theories to explain Chinese firms’ internationalization. In an attempt to better relate theory with empirical evidence, we examine the largest 500 Chinese manufacturing firms. We aim to find out the number of Chinese manufacturing firms to be true MNEs by definition, and to examine their financial performance relative to global peers using the financial benchmarking method. We develop our theoretical perspectives from new internalization theory. We find that there are only 49 Chinese manufacturing firms to be true MNEs, whereas the rest is purely domestic firms. Their performance is poor relative to global peers. Chinese MNEs have home country bound firm-specific advantages (FSAs), which are built upon home country-specific advantages (home CSAs). They have not yet developed advanced management capabilities through recombination with host CSAs. Essentially, they acquire foreign firms to increase their sales in domestic market, but they fail to be competitive internationally and to achieve superior performance in overseas operations. Our findings have important strategic implications for managers, public policy makers, and academic research.

The impact of deregulation and re-regulation on bank efficiency: evidence from Asia

Following the 1997 crisis, banking sector reforms in Asia have been characterised by the emphasis on prudential regulation, associated with increased financial liberalisation. Using a panel data set of commercial banks from eight major Asian economies over the period 2001-2010, this study explores how the coexistence of liberalisation and prudential regulation affects banks’ cost characteristics. Given the presence of heterogeneity of technologies across countries, we use a stochastic frontier approach followed by the estimation of a deterministic meta-frontier to provide ‘true’ estimates of bank cost efficiency measures. Our results show that the liberalization of bank interest rates and the increase in foreign banks' presence have had a positive and significant impact on technological progress and cost efficiency. On the other hand, we find that prudential regulation might adversely affect bank cost performance. When designing an optimal regulatory framework, policy makers should combine policies which aim to foster financial stability without hindering financial intermediation.

Effect of agitation on the performance of an anaerobic sequencing batch biofilm reactor in the treatment of dairy effluents

Agitation rate is an important parameter in the operation of Anaerobic Sequencing Biofilm Batch Reactors (ASBBRs), and a proper agitation rate guarantees good mixing, improves mass transfer, and enhances the solubility of the particulate organic matter. Dairy effluents have a high amount of particulate organic matter, and their anaerobic digestion presents inhibitory intermediates (e. g., long-chain fatty acids). The importance of studying agitation in such batch systems is clear. The present study aimed to evaluate how agitation frequency influences the anaerobic treatment of dairy effluents. The ASBBR was fed with wastewater from milk pasteurisation process and cheese manufacture with no whey segregation. The organic matter concentration, measured as chemical oxygen demand (COD), was maintained at approximately 8,000 mg/L. The reactor was operated with four agitation frequencies: 500 rpm, 350 rpm, 200 rpm, and no agitation. In terms of COD removal efficiency, similar results were observed for 500 rpm and 350 rpm (around 90%) and for 200 rpm and no agitation (around 80%). Increasing the system`s agitation thus not only improved the global efficiency of organic matter removal but also influenced volatile acid production and consumption and clearly modified this balance in each experimental condition.

Comparing detection and location performance of perpendicular and parallel broadside GPR antenna orientations

GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) results are shown for perpendicular broadside and parallel broadside antenna orientations. Performance in detection and localization of concrete tubes and steel tanks is compared as a function of acquisition configuration. The comparison is done using 100 MHz and 200 MHz center frequency antennas. All tubes and tanks are buried at the geophysical test site of IAG/USP in Sao Paulo city, Brazil. The results show that the long steel pipe with a 38-mm diameter was well detected with the perpendicular broadside configuration. The concrete tubes were better detected with the parallel broadside configuration, clearly showing hyperbolic diffraction events from all targets up to 2-m depth. Steel tanks were detected with the two configurations. However, the parallel broadside configuration was generated to a much lesser extent an apparent hyperbolic reflection corresponding to constructive interference of diffraction hyperbolas of adjacent targets placed at the same depth. Vertical concrete tubes and steel tanks were better contained with parallel broadside antennas, where the apexes of the diffraction hyperbolas better corresponded to the horizontal location of the buried target disposition. The two configurations provide details about buried targets emphasizing how GPR multi-component configurations have the potential to improve the subsurface image quality as well as to discriminate different buried targets. It is judged that they hold some applicability in geotechnical and geoscientific studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CONTRA: Improving the performance of dynamic investigations in natural abundance organic solids by mirror-symmetric constant-time CODEX

We present a minor but essential modification to the CODEX 1D-MAS exchange experiment. The new CONTRA method, which requires minor changes of the original sequence only, has advantages over the previously introduced S-CODEX, since it is less sensitive to artefacts caused by finite pulse lengths. The performance of this variant, including the finite pulse effect, was confirmed by SIMPSON calculations and demonstrated on a number of dynamic systems. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Study in the Theology of Christian Social Action

In this paper I have attempted to present a summary of my exposition of the theology of Rauschenbusch and Niebuhr, and of my own understanding of the issues of Christian Social Action. I have tried to reproduce in this short space the thought of these men, in a manner which should make it comprehensible and which should relate it to the larger questions of social action. This year’s work as a Senior Scholar has proved invaluable because of the discipline of self-directed study which the work taught, and because of myriad possibilities of future investigation which it has suggested. I hope that someday this present manuscript may be expanded into something more substantial. The personal value of such a project, in my opinion, must be measured by the contribution which the project makes to the individual’s general experience, and not merely by the written work which is produced. Therefore, although this manuscript is rather brief, it represents a great deal of value which I feel that I can measure only by my own experience.

The performance of open-end Brazilian fixed income mutual funds for retail clients

From a financial perspective, this dissertation analyzes the Brazilian mutual fund industry performance for an average retail client. The most representative funds for the local population, that are the fixed income open-end ones, will be selected and their performance will be measured aiming to answer if clients of this industry obtained a proper return over their investments in the period between August 2010 and August 2013. A proper return will be understood as the preservation of the purchasing power of the individual´s savings, what is achieved with a positive performance of a mutual fund after discounting taxes, administrative fees and inflation. After obtaining an answer for the previous question, this dissertation will explore a possible alternative solution: Tesouro Direto, that is an example of a financial approach that could foster the disintermediation between savings and investments through electronic channels. New electronic platforms, with a broader scope, could be utilized to increase the efficiency of funding productive investments through better remunerating Brazilian savings. Tesouro Direto may point towards a new paradigm.

From public to private : the performance of former public workers in the Brazilian labor market

This paper analyzes the placement in the private sector of a subset of Brazilian public-sector employees. This group left public employment in the mid-1990’s through a voluntary severance program. This paper contrasts their earnings before and after quitting the public sector, and compares both sets of wages to public and private sector earnings for similar workers. We find that participants in this voluntary severance program suffered a significant reduction in average earnings wage and an increase in earnings dispersion. We test whether the reduction in average earnings and the increase in earnings dispersion is the expected outcome once one controls for observed characteristics, by means of counterfactual simulations. Several methods of controlling for observed characteristics (parametric and non-parametrically) are used for robustness. The results indicate that this group of workers was paid at levels below what would be expected given their embodied observable characteristics.

Assessing the performance of private equity investments

This study presents an alternative investment projection model to estimate the future values of Private Equity (PE) investments. The performance of PE investments is assessed by analyzing the risk-return relationship relative to simulated Public Market (PM) investments that mimic the cash flow patterns of PE investments. The model allows for a quantified analysis of the underlying inputs that outline the PE performance and risks, and accounts for survivorship bias. These inputs include the fund manager’s decisions regarding the selection, leverage, size, duration and timing of investment and divestments.

The impact of corruption on the performance of state-owned companies: case of Petrobras Brasil

As empresas estatais são freqüentemente consideradas como componentes cruciais da economia de um país. Eles são responsáveis pela criação de vários postos de trabalho e proveem serviços essenciais que exigem um grande investimento de capital. Porém, em países com instituições fracas, onde a responsabilidade dos políticos é limitada e a gestão dos recursos financeiros das empresas estatais sofre pouco controle, os funcionários são muitas vezes tentados pela corrupção. Enormes quantidades de fundos públicos são facilmente desviados, e dinheiro que deveria ter sido investido nas despesas de capital, no pagamento de dívida da empresa ou no aumento do retorno para os acionistas, é usado para aumentar a riqueza privada de indivíduos ou para financiar ilegalmente partidos políticos. O desempenho da empresa sofre com essas alienações visto que parte dos lucros da empresa não são reinvestidos na empresa e dado que incentivos dos gestores estão desalinhados com os interesses dos acionistas. Petrobras, a maior empresa da América Latina em termos de ativos e receitas anuais, sofreu em 2014 e 2015 um escândalo de corrupção imenso, cujo impacto económico foi considerável, levando ao enfraquecimento da confiança de muitos investidores no Brasil após o evento. O escândalo expôs um extenso esquema de corrupção através do qual os contratantes foram conspirando para aumentar os preços de contratos de construção, com a aprovação da administração da Petrobras que pediu em troca ganhos pessoais ou fundos para o Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT). A exposição do escândalo na imprensa brasileira teve um grande impacto sobre a credibilidade da Petrobras: as contas da empresa estavam escondendo imensas irregularidades dado que a empresa tinha pago demais para os contratos de construção que não foram precificados no valor do mercado. Ao longo deste estudo, usamos o exemplo da Petrobras para ilustrar como a corrupção dentro empresas estatais prejudica o desempenho da empresa e como ela afeta as várias partes interessadas da empresa.

Evaluation of yeast cell wall on the performance of broiles fed diets with or without mycotoxins

This experiment aimed at evaluating the effects of the interactions between aflatoxin (500 or 250 ppb) and ochratoxin (500 or 250 ppb), and the possible benefits of adding yeast cell wall to prevent the effects of these mycotoxins in broiler chickens. Relative organ weight gain and live performance were evaluated at 21 and 42 days of age. Results indicated that at the levels of mycotoxins included in the experimental diets, ochratoxin reduced feed intake and body weight gain, and aflatoxin only affect feed intake of 21-day-old birds. No interaction was observed between aflatoxin and ochratoxin at the levels used in experimental study. Yeast cell wall did not significantly reduced the deleterious effects of ochratoxins. No significant differences were observed in relative organ weight gain. Yeast cell wall improved feed conversion ratio when birds were fed either contaminated or non-contaminated feeds.

Evaluation of the performance of a castor-oil based formulation in limiting pesticide residues in strawberry crops

A study was made to evaluate the effect of a castor oil-based detergent on strawberry crops treated with different classes of pesticides, namely deltamethrin, folpet, tebuconazole, abamectin and mancozeb, in a controlled environment. Experimental crops of greenhouse strawberries were cultivated in five different ways with control groups using pesticides and castor oil-based detergent. The results showed that the group 2, which was treated with castor oil-based detergent, presented the lowest amount of pesticide residues and the highest quality of fruit produced.