Contrasting growth and water use efficiency after thinning in mixed Abies pinsapo–Pinus pinaster–Pinus sylvestris forests

Foresters frequently lack sufficient information about thinning intensity effects to optimize semi-natural forest management and their effects and interaction with climate are still poorly understood. In an Abies pinsapo–Pinus pinaster–Pinus sylvestris forest with three thinning intensities, a dendrochronologial approach was used to evaluate the short-term responses of basal area increment (BAI), carbon isotope (δ13C) and water use efficiency (iWUE) to thinning intensity and climate. Thinning generally increased BAI in all species, except for the heavy thinning in P. sylvestris. Across all the plots, thinning increased 13C-derived water-use efficiency on average by 14.49% for A. pinsapo, 9.78% for P. sylvestris and 6.68% for P. pinaster, but through different ecophysiological mechanisms. Our findings provide a robust mean of predicting water use efficiency responses from three coniferous species exposed to different thinning strategies which have been modulated by climatic conditions over time.

An empirical evaluation of the Random Forests classifier models for variable selection in a large-scale lung cancer case-control study

Random Forests™ is reported to be one of the most accurate classification algorithms in complex data analysis. It shows excellent performance even when most predictors are noisy and the number of variables is much larger than the number of observations. In this thesis Random Forests was applied to a large-scale lung cancer case-control study. A novel way of automatically selecting prognostic factors was proposed. Also, synthetic positive control was used to validate Random Forests method. Throughout this study we showed that Random Forests can deal with large number of weak input variables without overfitting. It can account for non-additive interactions between these input variables. Random Forests can also be used for variable selection without being adversely affected by collinearities. ^ Random Forests can deal with the large-scale data sets without rigorous data preprocessing. It has robust variable importance ranking measure. Proposed is a novel variable selection method in context of Random Forests that uses the data noise level as the cut-off value to determine the subset of the important predictors. This new approach enhanced the ability of the Random Forests algorithm to automatically identify important predictors for complex data. The cut-off value can also be adjusted based on the results of the synthetic positive control experiments. ^ When the data set had high variables to observations ratio, Random Forests complemented the established logistic regression. This study suggested that Random Forests is recommended for such high dimensionality data. One can use Random Forests to select the important variables and then use logistic regression or Random Forests itself to estimate the effect size of the predictors and to classify new observations. ^ We also found that the mean decrease of accuracy is a more reliable variable ranking measurement than mean decrease of Gini. ^

Escape performance of temperate king scallop, Pecten maximus under ocean warming and acidification

Among bivalves, scallops are exceptional due to their capacity to escape from predators by swimming which is provided by rapid and strong claps that are produced by the phasic muscle interspersed with tonic muscle contractions. Based on the concept of oxygen and capacity-limited thermal tolerance, the following hypothesis was tested: ocean warming and acidification (OWA) would induce disturbances in aerobic metabolic scope and extracellular acid-case status and impair swimming performance in temperate scallops. Following long-term incubation under near-future OWA scenarios [20 vs. 10 °C (control) and 0.112 kPa CO2 (hypercapnia) vs. 0.040 kPa CO2 (normocapnic control)], the clapping performance and metabolic rates (MR) were measured in resting (RMR) and fatigued (maximum MR) king scallops, Pecten maximus, from Roscoff, France. Exposure to OA, either alone or combined with warming, left MR and swimming parameters such as the total number of claps and clapping forces virtually unchanged. Only the duration of the escape response was affected by OA which caused earlier exhaustion in hyper- than in normocapnic scallops at 10 °C. While maximum MR was unaffected, warm exposure increased RMR in both normocapnic and hypercapnic P. maximus resulting in similar Q 10 values of ~2.2. The increased costs of maintenance and the observation of strongly reduced haemolymph PO2 levels indicate that at 20 °C scallops have reached the upper thermal pejus range with unbalanced capacities for aerobic energy metabolism. As a consequence, warming to 20 °C decreased mean phasic force during escape performance until fatigue. The observed prolonged recovery time in warm incubated scallops might be a consequence of elevated metabolic costs at reduced oxygen availability in the warmth.

Sporomorphs and quantitative analysis of the Eocene record from IODP Hole 318-U1356A

The early Eocene epoch was characterized by extreme global warmth, which in terrestrial settings was characterized by an expansion of near-tropical vegetation belts into the high latitudes. During the middle to late Eocene, global cooling caused the retreat of tropical vegetation to lower latitudes. In high-latitude settings, near-tropical vegetation was replaced by temperate floras. This floral change has recently been traced as far south as Antarctica, where along the Wilkes Land margin paratropical forests thrived during the early Eocene and temperate Nothofagus forests developed during the middle Eocene. Here we provide both qualitative and quantitative palynological data for this floral turnover based on a sporomorph record recovered at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1356 off the Wilkes Land margin. Following the nearest living relative concept and based on a comparison with modern vegetation types, we examine the structure and diversity patterns of the Eocene vegetation along the Wilkes Land margin. Our results indicate that the early Eocene forests along the Wilkes Land margin were characterized by a diverse canopy composed of plants that today occur in tropical settings; their richness pattern was similar to that of present-day forests from New Caledonia. The middle Eocene forests were characterized by a canopy dominated by Nothofagus and exhibited richness patterns similar to modern Nothofagus forests from New Zealand.

Fruit yield and growth parameters of several Carica papaya L. genotypes in a temperate climate

The aim of this work was to evaluate changes in growth and productivity parameters of different precocious hybrids and a naturalized variety of papaya under both greenhouse and field cultivation in a temperate climate (the center of the province of Santa Fe, Argentina). In view of the aforesaid, the purpose of our research was to identify further genotypes better suited for the cultivation of this species in temperate climates and demonstrate the need for the use of semi-controlled systems to make possible the cultivation of these promising genotypes in middle latitudes. The average yield was 291% higher in greenhouse than in the field. The average productivity for hybrid genotypes compared with the naturalized variety more than doubled in both environments. Considering behavior in height, leaf area index and yield parameters, hybrids H2 (principally), and H4 showed a great adaptation for use in semi-forced systems. The use of greenhouse and short stature papaya hybrids allows its feasible and surely profitable cultivation in non- tropical climates.

Altered neurotransmitter function in CO2-exposed stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus): a temperate model species for ocean acidification research

Studies on the consequences of ocean acidification for the marine ecosystem have revealed behavioural changes in coral reef fishes exposed to sustained near-future CO2 levels. The changes have been linked to altered function of GABAergic neurotransmitter systems, because the behavioural alterations can be reversed rapidly by treatment with the GABAA receptor antagonist gabazine. Characterization of the molecular mechanisms involved would be greatly aided if these can be examined in a well-characterized model organism with a sequenced genome. It was recently shown that CO2-induced behavioural alterations are not confined to tropical species, but also affect the three-spined stickleback, although an involvement of the GABAA receptor was not examined. Here, we show that loss of lateralization in the stickleback can be restored rapidly and completely by gabazine treatment. This points towards a worrying universality of disturbed GABAA function after high-CO2 exposure in fishes from tropical to temperate marine habitats. Importantly, the stickleback is a model species with a sequenced and annotated genome, which greatly facilitates future studies on underlying molecular mechanisms.

Reference datasets and pollen record from sediment core YAK, Yakumo, SW Hokkaido

This study reconstructs middle and late Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics in the Oshima Peninsula, SW Hokkaido, using the published method of biome reconstruction and modern analogue technique applied to the Yakumo pollen record (42°17'03''N, 140°15'34''E) spanning the last 5500 years. Two previously published matrices assigning Japanese plant/pollen taxa to the major vegetation types (biomes) are tested using a newly compiled dataset of 78 surface pollen spectra from Hokkaido. With both matrices showing strengths and weaknesses in reconstructing cool mixed and temperate deciduous forests of Hokkaido, the results suggest the necessity to consider the whole list of identified terrestrial pollen taxa for generating robust vegetation reconstructions for northern Japan. Applied to the fossil pollen data, both biome-reconstruction approaches demonstrate consistently that oak-dominated cool mixed forest spread in the study region between 5.5 and 3.6 cal ka BP and was subsequently replaced by beech-dominated temperate deciduous forest. The pollen-based climate reconstruction suggests this change in the vegetation composition was caused by a shift from cooler and drier than present climate to warmer and wetter, similar to modern conditions about 3.6 cal ka BP. Comparing the pollen-based reconstruction results with the published marine records from the NW Pacific, the reconstructed vegetation and climate dynamics can be satisfactorily explained by the greater role played by the warm Tsushima Current in the Sea of Japan and in the Tsugaru Strait during the middle and late Holocene. An increase in sea surface temperatures west and south of the study site would favour air temperature rise and moisture uptake and cause an increase in precipitation and snow accumulation in the western part of Hokkaido during the late Holocene.

Pollen record and calculated holocene vegetation and climate dynamics from Sihailongwan Maar Lake, NE China

High-resolution palynological analysis on annually laminated sediments of Sihailongwan Maar Lake (SHL) provides new insights into the Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics of NE China. The robust chronology of the presented record is based on varve counting and AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial plant macro-remains. In addition to the qualitative interpretation of the pollen data, we provide quantitative reconstructions of vegetation and climate based on the method of biomization and weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS) technique, respectively. Power spectra were computed to investigate the frequency domain distribution of proxy signals and potential natural periodicities. Pollen assemblages, pollen-derived biome scores and climate variables as well as the cyclicity pattern indicate that NE China experienced significant changes in temperature and moisture conditions during the Holocene. Within the earliest phase of the Holocene, a large-scale reorganization of vegetation occurred, reflecting the reconstructed shift towards higher temperatures and precipitation values and the initial Holocene strengthening and northward expansion of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Afterwards, summer temperatures remain at a high level, whereas the reconstructed precipitation shows an increasing trend until approximately 4000 cal. yr BP. Since 3500 cal. yr BP, temperature and precipitation values decline, indicating moderate cooling and weakening of the EASM. A distinct periodicity of 550-600 years and evidence of a Mid-Holocene transition from a temperature-triggered to a predominantly moisture-triggered climate regime are derived from the power spectra analysis. The results obtained from SHL are largely consistent with other palaeoenvironmental records from NE China, substantiating the regional nature of the reconstructed vegetation and climate patterns. However, the reconstructed climate changes contrast with the moisture evolution recorded in S China and the mid-latitude (semi-)arid regions of N China. Whereas a clear insolation-related trend of monsoon intensity over the Holocene is lacking from the SHL record, variations in the coupled atmosphere-Pacific Ocean system can largely explain the reconstructed changes in NE China.

Global ASCII grids with daylenth values during summer and winter solstice and ASCII grids representing habitat suitability of Fucus distichus and its niche overlap with temperate macroalgae under present-day and future (2100, 2200) conditions

Abstract has to be submitted by the author!

Neogene palaeoclimate reconstructions in Anatolia (Turkey)

Neogene basins are widespread in Turkey and contain important lignite deposits. In this study, we reconstruct quantitatively the Late Oligocene-Miocene climate evolution in western and central Anatolia by applying the Coexistence Approach to the palynoflora. The obtained results are compared with the data derived from the published and ongoing studies in western and central Anatolia palynofloras by application of the Coexistence Approach. The Coexistence Approach results show that the sedimentation mainly developed on terrestrial environment under the warm subtropical climatic conditions and marine influence during the Chattian and Aquitanian period in western Anatolia (16.5-21.3°C of mean annual temperature (MAT) and 5.5-13.3°C of mean temperature of coldest month (CMT)). After the regression of the sea during the Burdigalian period, the vegetation developed under the terrestrial conditions, which had started in the Burdigalian time in western and central Anatolia and continued in the early-middle Serravallian period. Warm subtropical climate is suggested during the Chattian and Aquitanian period in western Anatolia and becomes cooler in subtropical conditions because of decreasing of the P/A-ratio during the latest Burdigalian-Langhian. The climate was subtropical in western and central Anatolia during the Early-Late Serravalian due to the increasing of the subtropical elements (17.2 to 20.8°C of MAT and 9.6 to13.1°C of CMT). Besides, decreasing of the CMT and MAT values in western and central Anatolia supports the latest Chattian-earliest Aquitanian warming and middle Miocene climatic optimum that is also globally observed. Warm temperate climatic conditions are observed in the Late Miocene. During the early-middle Tortonian, the values are 15.6 to 20.8°C for the MAT, 5.5 to 13.3°C for the CMT and 823 and 1520 mm for the mean annual precipitation (MAP). They had also dry seasons due to lower boundary of MAP lying at 823mm during the middle-Late Tortonian. The palaeotopography of central Anatolia was higher when compared to that of western Anatolia because dominance of the mountain forests was present during the Middle-Late Miocene in central Anatolia. This study provides the first quantitative model for Late Oligocene-Miocene palaeoclimatic evolution in western and central Anatolia.

delta 13C, delta 15N and delta 34S of temperate eelgrass food web in the western Baltic Sea

Simultaneous triple stable isotope analysis of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur was employed to study the temporal variation in the food web of a subtidal eelgrass (Zostera marina) bed in the western Baltic Sea. Samples of three potential food sources: eelgrass, epiphytes and seston, as well as consumer species were collected biweekly from March through September 2011. Temporal variation of stable isotope signatures was observed in primary producers and consumer species. However, variation within a species, particularly omnivores, often exceeded variation over time. The high degree of omnivory among the generalist feeders in this eelgrass community allows for generalist feeders to flexibly switch food sources, thus enhancing food web stability. As coastal systems are subject to seasonal changes, as well as alterations related to human disturbance and climate, these food webs may retain a certain resilience due to their plentiful omnivores.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, calcification, primary production and respiration of a temperate rhodolith Lithothamnion corallioides in a laboratory experiment

Coralline algae are considered among the most sensitive species to near future ocean acidification. We tested the effects of elevated pCO2 on the metabolism of the free-living coralline alga Lithothamnion corallioides ("maerl") and the interactions with changes in temperature. Specimens were collected in North Brittany (France) and grown for 3 months at pCO2 of 380 (ambient pCO2), 550, 750, and 1000 µatm (elevated pCO2) and at successive temperatures of 10°C (ambient temperature in winter), 16°C (ambient temperature in summer), and 19°C (ambient temperature in summer +3°C). At each temperature, gross primary production, respiration (oxygen flux), and calcification (alkalinity flux) rates were assessed in the light and dark. Pigments were determined by HPLC. Chl a, carotene, and zeaxanthin were the three major pigments found in L. corallioides thalli. Elevated pCO2 did not affect pigment content while temperature slightly decreased zeaxanthin and carotene content at 10°C. Gross production was not affected by temperature but was significantly affected by pCO2 with an increase between 380 and 550 µatm. Light, dark, and diel (24 h) calcification rates strongly decreased with increasing pCO2 regardless of the temperature. Although elevated pCO2 only slightly affected gross production in L. corallioides, diel net calcification was reduced by up to 80% under the 1,000 µatm treatment. Our findings suggested that near future levels of CO2 will have profound consequences for carbon and carbonate budgets in rhodolith beds and for the sustainability of these habitats.

Diffusion boundary layers ameliorate the negative effects of ocean acidification on the temperate coralline macroalga Arthrocardia corymbosa

Anthropogenically-modulated reductions in pH, termed ocean acidification, could pose a major threat to the physiological performance, stocks, and biodiversity of calcifiers and may devalue their ecosystem services. Recent debate has focussed on the need to develop approaches to arrest the potential negative impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems dominated by calcareous organisms. In this study, we demonstrate the role of a discrete (i.e. diffusion) boundary layer (DBL), formed at the surface of some calcifying species under slow flows, in buffering them from the corrosive effects of low pH seawater. The coralline macroalga Arthrocardia corymbosa was grown in a multifactorial experiment with two mean pH levels (8.05 'ambient' and 7.65 a worst case 'ocean acidification' scenario projected for 2100), each with two levels of seawater flow (fast and slow, i.e. DBL thin or thick). Coralline algae grown under slow flows with thick DBLs (i.e., unstirred with regular replenishment of seawater to their surface) maintained net growth and calcification at pH 7.65 whereas those in higher flows with thin DBLs had net dissolution. Growth under ambient seawater pH (8.05) was not significantly different in thin and thick DBL treatments. No other measured diagnostic (recruit sizes and numbers, photosynthetic metrics, %C, %N, %MgCO3) responded to the effects of reduced seawater pH. Thus, flow conditions that promote the formation of thick DBLs, may enhance the subsistence of calcifiers by creating localised hydrodynamic conditions where metabolic activity ameliorates the negative impacts of ocean acidification.

Organic carbon flux through the benthic community in the temperate abyssal Northeast Atlantic

In order to assess the carbon flux through the deep-sea benthic boundary layer, sediment community oxygen consumption (SCOC) was measured in different months and years at the BIOTRANS area in the abyssal northeastern Atlantic. SCOC varied seasonally with a maximum in July/August. Evidence is given for a direct coupling between a substantial sedimentation of phytodetritus and the seasonal increase in SCOC. Rapid colonization, growth and decomposition rates indicate that the deep-sea benthic microbial and protozoan biota can react quickly to substantial falls of particulate organic matter. They seem to be the most important groups to generate seasonal changes in deep-sea benthic carbon flux rates.

Deforesting Europe: pollen-inferred Holocene land cover change using the 'pseudobiomization' approach

Maps of continental-scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time-scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio-ecological historians and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan-European land cover change for the period 9000 BP to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 BP through reduction in broad-leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan-European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 BP onwards. From 2200 BP land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for preindustrial Europe was established by 1000 BP. Recognizing the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover-climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape.