Poor and under pressure: the social impact of Europe's fiscal consolidation. Bruegel Policy Contribution, Issue 2015/04, March 2015

Europe faces major challenges related to poverty, unemployment and polarisation between the south and the north, which impact adversely the current living conditions of many citizens, and also negatively impact medium- and long-term economic growth. Fiscal consolidation exaggerated social hardship. In vulnerable countries there was no alternative to fiscal consolidation, but in most EU countries and at aggregate EU level, consolidation was premature when the cyclical position of the economy was deteriorating. Spending on social protection was shielded relative to other spending categories, but public bank rescue costs were high. While the changes in the tax mix favoured job creation, the overall tax burden become more regressive. There is an increasing generational divide between the elderly and the young in terms of social indicators. Social spending on elderly people was favoured relative to spending on families, children and education. There is now a serious danger that a lost generation might develop in several member states. Forceful policies should include bold structural reforms, better use of the European economic governance framework, more demand promotion, and a revision of national tax/benefit systems for fair burden sharing between the wealthy and poor.

A case for adjusting fiscal consolidation in the eurozone. European Policy Brief No. 14, January 2013

Fiscal consolidation is essential to ensure the sustainability of eurozone countries’ public debt. However, as a principle, consolidation should not be pursued at a pace unnecessarily undermining growth in the short term. Repeated downward revisions of growth call for the use of the flexibility foreseen in the EU fiscal framework. The Commission should adapt the deadlines for fiscal correction to prevent excessive, pro-cyclical adjustment in 2013. In turn, adequate surveillance and coordination must ensure structural adjustments constitute the core of fiscal consolidation plans.

The Politics of Budget Consolidation in Britain and Germany: the Impact of Blame-Avoidance Opportunities. CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 05.2, 2005

According to parts of the literature, blame avoidance opportunities, i.e. the necessity and applicability of blame avoidance strategies, may differ among countries according to the respective institutional set-ups and between governing parties according to their programmatic orientation. In countries with many veto actors, a strategy of "Institutional Cooperation" among these actors is expected to diffuse blame sufficiently to render other blame avoidance strategies obsolete. In contrast, governments in Westminster democracies should resort to the more unilateral strategies of presentation, policy design and timing. At the same time, parties of the left are expected to have an easier time implementing spending cuts while right parties are less vulnerable when proposing tax increases. Evidence from the politics of budget consolidation in Britain and Germany does not corroborate these hypotheses. Instead, it seems that party competition conditions the effects institutions and the partisan complexion of governments have on the politics of blame avoidance.

Retrospective evaluation of the effects of administration of tetrastarch (hydroxyethyl starch 130/0.4) on plasma creatinine concentration in dogs (2010-2013): 201 dogs

OBJECTIVE To determine changes in creatinine concentrations following the administration of 6% tetrastarch (hydroxyethyl starch [HES] 130/0.4) compared to crystalloids (CRYSs) in critically ill dogs. DESIGN Retrospective case series (2010-2013). SETTING University teaching hospital. ANIMALS Two hundred and one dogs admitted to the intensive care unit with initial plasma creatinine concentrations not exceeding laboratory reference intervals (52-117 μmol/L [0.6-1.3 mg/dL]) and receiving either CRYSs alone (CRYS group, n = 115) or HES with or without CRYSs (HES group, n = 86) for at least 24 hours. INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Creatinine concentrations at admission to the intensive care unit (T0), and 2-13 days (T1) and 2-12 weeks (T2) after initiation of fluid therapy were analyzed. Creatinine concentrations were analyzed as absolute values and as the maximum percentage change from T0 to T1 (T1max%) and from T0 to T2 (T2max%), respectively. Creatinine concentrations were available for 192 dogs during T1 and 37 dogs during T2. The median cumulative dose of HES was 86 mL/kg (range, 12-336 mL/kg). No difference was detected between the groups for age, gender, body weight, and length of hospitalization. Outcome was significantly different between the HES (66% survived) and the CRYS (87% survived) groups (P = 0.014). No significant difference was detected between groups for creatinine concentrations at T0, T1, T2, T1max%, or T2max%. No significant difference was detected between the groups for T1max% creatinine in dogs subclassified as having systemic inflammatory response syndrome or sepsis. CONCLUSIONS HES administration in this canine population did not result in increased creatinine concentrations compared to administration of CRYSs. Further studies are needed to establish the safety of HES in critically ill dogs.

Stepwise consolidation of glacigenic sediments of the Prydz Bay

A series of samples from the five sites drilled across the continental shelf and upper slope in Prydz Bay during ODP Leg 119 were consolidation tested in an oedometer. Preconsolidation stresses increase downcore at Sites 739 and 742 in a stepwise manner, and the steps are interpreted to represent periods of increased action of grounded glaciers covering the entire shelf. By the use of theoretical ice sheet surface profiles giving the range of possible ice thicknesses, sediment loading and subsequent erosion seem to be the most important factor for increasing the overconsolidation ratios, and a total glacial erosion exceeding 1 km is possible. Four separate steps in consolidation, here termed "load events" have been identified. The lowermost load event, 1, is correlated to the onset of glaciations reaching the shelf edge and an early period of extensive glaciations, starting in early Oligocene or possibly earlier. Glacial activity related to the buildup of ice in West Antarctica in the late Miocene is tentatively correlated to load event 2. Event 3 is the trace of relatively extensive glacial erosion probably in the Pliocene, whereas the upper step in preconsolidation stress, load event 4, results from the last glaciation reaching the shelf edge, possibly during the late Weichselian. Correlations to other data related to Antarctic glacial history are, however, hampered by the poor age control of the cored diamictites. Consolidation tests may provide a tool for finding the position for hiatuses and unconformities formed subglacially and obscured by subglacial reworking.

(Table 1) Petrological description and consolidation properties of ODP Site 186-1150 and Hole 186-1151A

In order to determine the shear parameters of the forearc sedimentary strata drilled during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 186, West Pacific Seismic Network, Japan Trench, eight whole-round samples were selected from different depths in the drilled sections of Sites 1150 and 1151. Whereas Site 1150 lays above the seismically active part of the subduction zone, Site 1151 is situated in an aseismic zone. The aim of the triaxial tests was, apart from determination of the static stress strain behavior of the sediments, to test the hypothesis that the static stress strain parameter could differ for each sites. In order to simulate undrained deformation conditions according to the high clay mineral content of the strata, consolidated undrained shear tests were performed in a triaxial testing setup. Measurements of water content, grain density, organic content, and microtextural investigations under the scanning electron microscope (SEM) accompanied the compression experiments. After the saturation and consolidation stages were completed, failure occurred in the compression stage of the experiments at peak strengths of 280-7278 kPa. The stiffness moduli calculated for each sample from differential stress vs. strain curves show a linear relationship with depth and range between 181 and 5827 kPa. Under the SEM, the artificial fault planes of the tested specimen only show partial alignment of clay minerals because of the high content of microfossils.