Long-run performance of sovereign rating changes

This paper examines the impact of Sovereign rating changes on the aggregate stock and bond market returns both in emerging and developed countries. Rating downgrades in emerging markets are associated with significant negative wealth effects both in the stock and bond markets. Moreover, the effects of rating downgrades persist up to six-months after the event. In contrast, upgrades in emerging markets convey no information. Rating changes in developed markets have no significant impact on either stock and bond market returns. Rating agencies act pro-cyclically, downgrading countries in bad times and, consequently, contributing to the instability in emerging markets.

Evaluation of long term persistence of Diabetes Mellitus Type II treatment newly diagnosed patients in Lisbon and Tagus health administration region : a three year follow up study

RESUMO: Raional: A persistência à terapêutica é o tempo em qualquer antidiabético oral, desde o seu início até à descontinuação de todas as medicações ou até ao fim do período do estudo. Os objetivos deste estudo foi a análise da persistência à terapêutica no segundo e terceiro anos após início do tratamento em doentes adultos diagnosticados na região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo e determinar o efeito de determinadas variáveis na persistência a longo prazo. Métodos: Um estudo retrospetivo não interventivo foi desenhado com base nos dados a obter do SIARS (prescrições e aquisições na farmácia) e Pordata. A persistência foi quantificada como a percentagem de doentes que continuam a adquirir pelo menos um antidiabético oral ao segundo e terceiro anos após a compra da primeira receita. A associação entre a persistência e o segundo e terceiro anos com cada uma das co-variáveis foi aferido pelo teste qui-quadrado e os odd ratios foram calculados com recurso a um modelo de regressão logística. Resultados: A persistência à terapêutica obtida foi de 80% e 62% para o segundo e terceiro anos após início da terapêutica. Odd ratios para primeiro e segundo ano: número de grupos farmacoterapêuticos diferentes (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); idade (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); sexo (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); número de diferentes prescritores (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); instituição de prescrição (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relação com o médico (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) e custo médio mensal por grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusões: O valor da persistência à terapêutica no segundo ano é ligeiramente acima do que é mencionado na literatura e não existem dados para comparar os resultados do terceiro ano. Relativamente ao efeito das co-variáveis no segundo e terceiro anos após o início do tratamento, os resultados são sobreponíveis, sendo que o sexo não está associado à persistência ao terceiro ano.----------------------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Therapy persistence is the time on any antidiabetic medication, from initiation of therapy to discontinuation of all medications or the end of the study period. The aim of the study was to analyse the therapy persistence in the second and third years after treatment initiation in newly diagnosed adult patients in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region and to determine the effect of several co-variables in the long term persistence. Methods: A retrospective non-interventional study based on SIARS data (drug prescriptions and acquisitions) and Pordata was designed. Persistence was quantified as the percentage of patients that continued to purchase at least one type of antidiabetic at year 2 and 3 after the date of first prescription acquisition. Association between persistence at second and third years with each of the other co-variables were verified by using the Chi-Square test and odds ratio were calculated using a regression logistic model. Results: Therapy persistence obtained was 80% and 62% for the second and third years after treatment initiation. Odd ratios for second and third years: number of different pharmacotherapeutic groups (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); age (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); gender (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); number of different prescribers (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); institution of prescription (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relationship with the physician (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) and average cost per month and per pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusions: Second year therapy persistence value is slightly above of what is referenced in literature and no data was found to compare the third year value. Regarding the effect of the co-variables analysed at second and third years after treatment initiation, the results were overlapping with gender being not associated with persistence at the third year.

O impacto do diagnóstico de demência no casal

RESUMO: A experiência de viver com demência ocorre, frequentemente, num contexto de uma relação conjugal duradoura. A qualidade da relação e o sentido de coerência (conjunto de características pessoais que permite compreender, gerir e integrar os factores de stress de forma construtiva) apresentam-se como factores promotores e protectores da saúde, no contexto de experiências adversas, nomeadamente de doença. Provavelmente, o mesmo poderá acontecer nos quadros demenciais. O presente estudo teve como objectivo principal analisar o impacto do diagnóstico, no contexto das fases iniciais de demência, em casais de pessoas idosas, explorando o papel da qualidade da relação conjugal e do sentido de coerência na confrontação com o diagnóstico e na experiência de viver com a doença. Realizámos um estudo observacional de seis casais de pessoas idosas (pessoas com demência e respectivos cônjuges prestadores de cuidados), com recurso a entrevistas individuais e conjuntas como suplemento metodológico central, suportado pela utilização dos instrumentos: Orientation to Life Questionnaire - SOC (Antonovsky, 1987) e Quality of Carer-Patient Relationships – QCPR (Spruytte et al. 2000). Os resultados sugerem que a qualidade da relação e um sentido de coerência mais elevado podem facilitar uma adaptação bem-sucedida aos desafios, promover a adopção de estratégias para reforçar os aspectos positivos da experiência de cuidar e atenuar os negativos (sobrecarga e sofrimento psíquico do cuidador), encorajar padrões positivos no acesso e na utilização dos cuidados formais e adiar a institucionalização precoce da pessoa com demência.----------------------- ABSTRACT: In couples, caregiving experiences in dementia usually occur within long-standing relationships preceding the onset of the illness and evolving as it progresses. The quality of relationship (QR) and Antonovsky’s salutogenic construct of sense of coherence (SOC) are assumed to promote and protect health in stressful situations, such as dementia. SOC refers to the extent to which a person considers his/her life as comprehensible, manageable and meaningful. We aim to uncover the role of QR and SOC as moderator or mediator in the ability of patients and their partners to cope with the impact of dementia We studied six couples in which one spouse had been diagnosed with dementia. We used a qualitative research approach (combining in-depth individual and joint interviews), triangulated with the measures Orientation to Life Questionnaire - SOC scale (Antonovsky, 1987) and the Quality of Carer-Patient Relationships – QCPR (Spruytte et al. 2000). The method was informed by a literature review on the role of RQ and SOC within dementia. Results highlight the importance of listening to both spouses, in a dyadic perspective, while acknowledging the voice of PwD themselves despite methodological challenges. Aspects of prior relationship impact on caregiving dynamics and on how the care-giver and care-recipient roles are experienced. At the same time, the experience of living with dementia impacts on the relationship, often causing change or loss which is difficult to accept or adjust to. Diagnosis played an important role on the SOC’s comprehensibility component (life makes sense). Good pre-caregiving and current relationship was associated with carers’ ability to cope, namely on SOC’s manageability (problems will be bearable) and meaningfulness (life is viewed as a challenge). Our findings suggest that an understanding of QR and SOC prior to diagnosis may encourage positive patterns of care, foster successful adaptation to changing needs, and support in-home arrangements as long as possible.

Long-term follow-up of a patient since the acute phase of Chagas disease (South American trypanosomiasis): further treatment and cure of the infection

ABSTRACTA woman had been followed since 1957 for acute phase Chagas disease. Parasitological and serological tests were positive, and treatment included benznidazole in 1974. Following treatment, parasitological test results were negative and conventional serology remained positive until 1994, with subsequent discordant results (1995-1997). The results became consistently negative since 1999. She had an indeterminate chronic form until 1974. Only two minor and transitory nonspecific alterations on electrocardiogram were noted, with the last nine records normal until June 2014. This case confirms the possibility of curing chronic disease and suggests the benefit of specific treatments for preventing long-term morbidity.

Colorectal cancer screening

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the world, and mortality has remained the same for the past 50 years, despite advances in diagnosis and treatment. Because significant numbers of patients present with advanced or incurable stages, patients with pre-malignant lesions (adenomatous polyps) that occur as result of genetic inheritance or age should be screened, and patients with long-standing inflammatory bowel disease should undergo surveillance. There are different risk groups for CRC, as well as different screening strategies. It remains to be determined which screening protocol is the most cost-effective for each risk catagory. The objective of screening is to reduce morbidity and mortality in a target population. The purpose of this review is to analyze the results of the published CRC screening studies, with regard to the measured reduction of morbidity and mortality, due to CRC in the studied populations, following various screening procedures. The main screening techniques, used in combination or alone, include fecal occult blood tests, flexible sigmoidoscopy, and colonoscopy. Evidence from the published literature on screening methods for specific risk groups is scanty and frequently does not arise from controlled studies. Nevertheless, data from these studies, combined with recent advances in molecular genetics, certainly lead the way to greater efficacy and lower cost of CRC screening.

Long term (five-year) survival following radical surgical treatment plus adjuvant chemotherapy (FAM) in advanced gastric cancer: a controlled study

Several drugs and their associations are being used for adjuvant or complementary chemotherapy with the aim of improving results of gastric cancer treatment. The objective of this study was to verify the impact of these drugs on nutrition and on survival rate after radical treatment of 53 patients with gastric cancer in stage III of the TNM classification. A control group including 28 patients who had only undergone radical resection was compared to a group of 25 patients who underwent the same operative technique followed by adjuvant polychemotherapy with FAM (5-fluorouracil, Adriamycin, and mitomycin C). In this latter group, chemotherapy toxicity in relation to hepatic, renal, cardiologic, neurological, hematologic, gastrointestinal, and dermatological functions was also studied. There was no significant difference on admission between both groups in relation to gender, race, macroscopic tumoral type of tumor according to the Borrmann classification, location of the tumor in the stomach, length of the gastric resection, or response to cutaneous tests on delayed sensitivity. Chemotherapy was started on average, 2.3 months following surgical treatment. Clinical and laboratory follow-up of all patients continued for 5 years. The following conclusions were reached: 1) The nutritional status and incidence of gastrointestinal manifestation were similar in both groups; 2) There was no occurrence of cardiac, renal, neurological, or hepatic toxicity or death due to the chemotherapeutic method per se; 3) Dermatological alterations and hematological toxicity occurred exclusively in patients who underwent polychemotherapy; 4) There was no significant difference between the rate and site of tumoral recurrence, the disease-free interval, or the survival rate of both study groups; 5) Therefore, we concluded, after a 5-year follow-up, chemotherapy with the FAM regimen did not increase the survival rate.

Correlation between osteochondral changes depicted by magnetic resonance imaging and disease progression

PURPOSE: To determine the consequences of the chronic use of systemic corticosteroids in children with juvenile rheumatoid arthritis by means of evaluating osteochondral effects depicted by magnetic resonance imaging. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We reviewed clinical and magnetic resonance imaging findings in 69 children (72 knees) with juvenile rheumatoid arthritis. Two groups were studied. Group I: 34 (49.3%) children had previous or current use of systemic corticotherapy (22 girls; 12 boys; mean age: 11.3 years; mean disease duration: 5.9 years; mean corticotherapy duration: 2.9 years; mean cumulative dose of previous corticosteroids: 5000 mg); Group II: 35 (50.7%) children had no previous use of corticosteroids (27 girls; 8 boys; mean age: 11.7 years; mean disease duration: 5.3 years). The groups were compared statistically. RESULTS: In the group that had received corticotherapy (Group I), osteochondral abnormalities were significantly correlated to long-standing disease (>3.5 years; p<0.001). This correlation was not found in the group that had no previous history of corticotherapy (Group II). No correlations were established between median dose of corticosteroids and magnetic resonance imaging findings. CONCLUSION: It is important to further investigate the long-term intra-articular effects of systemic corticotherapy to ensure that the side effects of the aggressive therapy will not be more harmful for the joints than the symptoms suffered over the natural course of the disease.

On the labor share the long-run equilibrium and its adjustment process

This research computes an Equilibrium Labor Share using a VECM for a panel of 19 countries, analyzes what determines the speed at which the labor share adjusts towards that equilibrium and decomposes this adjustment in terms of real wages and employment. Results suggest that the speed at which a country adjusts decreases with employment protection legislation and labor taxes. Most countries’ labor shares adjustment is made through real wages changes instead of changing employment, suggesting that wage moderation policies may play an important role on the adjustment process without harming employment. Keywords: Equilibrium

On the labor share the long-run equilibrium and its adjustment process

This research computes an Equilibrium Labor Share using a VECM for a panel of 19 countries, analyzes what determines the speed at which the labor share adjusts towards that equilibrium and decomposes this adjustment in terms of real wages and employment. Results suggest that the speed at which a country adjusts decreases with employment protection legislation and labor taxes. Most countries’ labor shares adjustment is made through real wages changes instead of changing employment, suggesting that wage moderation policies may play an important role on the adjustment process without harming employment.

Short- and long-term outcomes of ileal pouch-anal anastomosis for ulcerative colitis

Ileal pouch-anal anastomosis was an important advancement in the treatment of ulcerative colitis. The aim of this study was to determine whether early complications of ileal pouch-anal anastomosis in patients with ulcerative colitis are associated with poor late functional results. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Eighty patients were operated on from 1986 to 2000, 62 patients with ileostomy and 18 without. The early and late complications were recorded. Specific emphasis has been placed on the incidence of pouchitis with prolonged follow-up. RESULTS: The ileostomy was closed an average of 9.2 months after the first operation. Fourteen patients were excluded from the long-term evaluation; 6 patients were lost to regular follow-up, 4 died, and 4 patients still have the ileostomy. Of the 4 patients that died, 1 died from surgical complications. Early complications after operation (41) occurred in 34 patients (42.5%). Late complications (29) occurred in 25 patients as follows: 16 had pouchitis, 3 associated with stenosis and 1 with sexual dysfunction; 5 had stenosis; and there was 1 case each of incisional hernia, ileoanal fistula, hepatic cancer, and endometriosis. Pouchitis occurred in 6 patients (9.8%) 1 year after ileal pouch-anal anastomosis, 9 (14.8%) after 3 years, 13 (21.3%) after 5 years, and 16 (26.2%) after more than 6 years. The mean daily stool frequency was 12 before and 5.8 after operation. One pouch was removed because of fistulas that appeared 2 years later. CONCLUSIONS: Ileal pouch-anal anastomosis is associated with a considerable number of early complications. There was no correlation between pouchitis and severe disease, operation with or without ileostomy, or early postoperative complications. The incidence of pouchitis was directly proportional to duration of time of follow-up.

Endovascular techniques for placement of long-term chemotherapy catheters

PURPOSE: To analyze the results from using endovascular techniques to place long-term chemotherapy catheters when advancing the catheter using the external jugular vein is difficult due to obstructions or kinking. METHODS: Between July 1997 and August 2000, 320 long-term chemotherapy catheters were placed, and in 220 cases the external jugular vein was used as the primary venous approach. In 18 of these patients, correct positioning was not achieved and several endovascular techniques were then utilized to overcome these obstacles, including manipulation of a J-wire with a moveable core, venography, and the exchange wire technique. RESULTS: In 94.5% of the patients with difficulties in obtaining the correct positioning, we were able to advance the long-term catheter to the desired position with the assistance of endovascular techniques. CONCLUSIONS: Venography and endovascular guidance techniques are useful for the placement of long-term catheters in the external jugular vein.

Comparison of catheter-related infection risk in two different long-term venous devices in adult hematology-oncology patients

PURPOSE: Infection is the leading complication of long-term central venous catheters, and its incidence may vary according to catheter type. The objective of this study was to compare the frequency and probability of infection between two types of long-term intravenous devices. METHODS: Retrospective study in 96 onco-hematology patients with partially implanted catheters (n = 55) or completely implanted ones (n = 42). Demographic data and catheter care were similar in both groups. Infection incidence and infection-free survival were used for the comparison of the two devices. RESULTS: In a median follow-up time of 210 days, the catheter-related infection incidence was 0.2102/100 catheter-days for the partially implanted devices and 0.0045/100 catheter-days for the completely implanted devices; the infection incidence rate was 46.7 (CI 95% = 6.2 to 348.8). The 1-year first infection-free survival ratio was 45% versus 97%, and the 1-year removal due to infection-free survival ratio was 42% versus 97% for partially and totally implanted catheters, respectively (P <.001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSION: In the present study, the infection risk was lower in completely implanted devices than in partially implanted ones.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Spatial and temporal distribution of a tiger beetle guild (Coleoptera: Carabidae: Cicindelinae) along a 105m long transect in the reserva florestal A. Ducke near Manaus (Central Amazonia)

The spatial and temporal distribution of a guild of eight diurnal tiger beetle species was studied on a 105 m long transect near the field station of the Reserva Florestal A. Ducke near Manaus (AM), Brazil. The transect followed a path that included both shaded and an open areas. Five of the species, restricted to primary forest, occurrred only in shaded areas of the transect, and three species occurred in open areas. Of all eight species only two of the open habitat species showed no clear seasonality in adult activity. In six species the activity of adults was limited to the rainy season. The most pronounced annual rhythm was found in Pentacomia ventralis, an open habitat species. Activity of adults was limited to October/November. First in-star larvae appeared shortly thereafter. Larval development mainly took place from January to May. The third instar larva entered a dormancy which lasted up to 10 months, and which enabled the synchronisation of emerging adults with annual seasons.

Soil mineral N dynamics beneath mixtures of leaves from legume and fruit trees in Central Amazonian multi-strata agroforests

Long term applications of leguminous green mulch could increase mineralizable nitrogen (N) beneath cupuaçu trees produced on the infertile acidic Ultisols and Oxisols of the Amazon Basin. However, low quality standing cupuaçu litter could interfere with green mulch N release and soil N mineralization. This study compared mineral N, total N, and microbial biomass N beneath cupuaçu trees grown in two different agroforestry systems, north of Manaus, Brazil, following seven years of different green mulch application rates. To test for net interactions between green mulch and cupuaçu litter, dried gliricidia and inga leaves were mixed with senescent cupuaçu leaves, surface applied to an Oxisol soil, and incubated in a greenhouse for 162 days. Leaf decomposition, N release and soil N mineralization were periodically measured in the mixed species litter treatments and compared to single species applications. The effect of legume biomass and cupuaçu litter on soil mineral N was additive implying that recommendations for green mulch applications to cupuaçu trees can be based on N dynamics of individual green mulch species. Results demonstrated that residue quality, not quantity, was the dominant factor affecting the rate of N release from leaves and soil N mineralization in a controlled environment. In the field, complex N cycling and other factors, including soil fauna, roots, and microclimatic effects, had a stronger influence on available soil N than residue quality.