942 resultados para Species distribution modelling


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Mountain vegetation is strongly affected by temperature and is expected to shift upwards with climate change. Dynamic vegetation models are often used to assess the impact of climate on vegetation and model output can be compared with paleobotanical data as a reality check. Recent paleoecological studies have revealed regional variation in the upward shift of timberlines in the Northern and Central European Alps in response to rapid warming at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal transition ca. 11700years ago, probably caused by a climatic gradient across the Alps. This contrasts with previous studies that successfully simulated the early Holocene afforestation in the (warmer) Central Alps with a chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction from the (colder) Northern Alps. We use LandClim, a dynamic landscape vegetation model to simulate mountain forests under different temperature, soil and precipitation scenarios around Iffigsee (2065m a.s.l.) a lake in the Northwestern Swiss Alps, and compare the model output with the paleobotanical records. The model clearly overestimates the upward shift of timberline in a climate scenario that applies chironomid-inferred July-temperature anomalies to all months. However, forest establishment at 9800 cal. BP at Iffigsee is successfully simulated with lower moisture availability and monthly temperatures corrected for stronger seasonality during the early Holocene. The model-data comparison reveals a contraction in the realized niche of Abies alba due to the prominent role of anthropogenic disturbance after ca. 5000 cal. BP, which has important implications for species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on equilibrium with climate and niche stability. Under future climate projections, LandClim indicates a rapid upward shift of mountain vegetation belts by ca. 500m and treeline positions of ca. 2500m a.s.l. by the end of this century. Resulting biodiversity losses in the alpine vegetation belt might be mitigated with low-impact pastoralism to preserve species-rich alpine meadows.

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Rapid speciation can occur on ecological time scales and interfere with ecological processes, resulting in species distribution patterns that are difficult to reconcile with ecological theory. The haplochromine cichlids in East African lakes are an extreme example of rapid speciation. We analyse the causes of their high speciation rates. Various studies have identified disruptive sexual selection acting on colour polymorphisms that might cause sympatric speciation. Using data on geographical distribution, colouration and relatedness from 41 species endemic to Lake Victoria, we test predictions from this hypothesis. Plotting numbers of pairs of closely related species against the amount of distributional overlap between the species reveals a bimodal distribution with modes on allopatric and sympatric. The proportion of sister species pairs that are heteromorphic for the traits under disruptive selection is higher in sympatry than in allopatry. These data support the hypothesis that disruptive sexual selection on colour polymorphisms has caused sympatric speciation and help to explain the rapid radiation of haplochromine species flocks.

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here is controversy over the role of marine methane hydrates in atmospheric methane concentrations and climate change during the last glacial period. In this study of two sediment cores from the southeast Bering Sea (700 m and 1467 m water depth), we identify multiple episodes during the last glacial period of intense methane flux reaching the seafloor. Within the uncertainty of the radiocarbon age model, the episodes are contemporaneous in the two cores and have similar timing and duration as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. The episodes are marked by horizons of sediment containing 13C-depleted authigenic carbonate minerals; 13C-depleted archaeal and bacterial lipids, which resemble those found in ANME-1 type anaerobic methane oxidizing microbial consortia; and changes in the abundance and species distribution of benthic foraminifera. The similar timing and isotopic composition of the authigenic carbonates in the two cores is consistent with a region-wide increase in the upward flux of methane bearing fluids. This study is the first observation outside Santa Barbara Basin of pervasive, repeated methane flux in glacial sediments. However, contrary to the "Clathrate Gun Hypothesis" (Kennett et al., 2003), these coring sites are too deep for methane hydrate destabilization to be the cause, implying that a much larger part of the ocean's sedimentary methane may participate in climate or carbon cycle feedback at millennial timescales. We speculate that pulses of methane in these opal-rich sediments could be caused by the sudden release of overpressure in pore fluids that builds up gradually with silica diagenesis. The release could be triggered by seismic shaking on the Aleutian subduction zone caused by hydrostatic pressure increase associated with sea level rise at the start of interstadials.

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As a response to ocean warming, shifts in fish species distribution and changes in production have been reported that have been partly attributed to temperature effects on the physiology of animals. The Southern Ocean hosts some of the most rapidly warming regions on earth and Antarctic organisms are reported to be especially temperature sensitive. While cellular and molecular organismic levels appear, at least partially, to compensate for elevated temperatures, the consequences of acclimation to elevated temperature for the whole organism are often less clear. Growth and reproduction are the driving factors for population structure and abundance. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of long-term acclimation to elevated temperature on energy budget parameters in the high-Antarctic fish Trematomus bernacchii. Our results show a complete temperature compensation for routine metabolic costs after 9 weeks of acclimation to 4°C. However, an up to 84% reduction in mass growth was measured at 2 and 4°C compared with the control group at 0°C, which is best explained by reduced food assimilation rates at warmer temperatures. With regard to a predicted temperature increase of up to 1.4°C in the Ross Sea by 2200, such a significant reduction in growth is likely to affect population structures in nature, for example by delaying sexual maturity and reducing production, with severe impacts on Antarctic fish communities and ecosystems.

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Planktonic foraminiferal assemblages from the upper Pleistocene part of Hole 1087A (0 to 12.1 meters below seafloor) are investigated to assess the role of global and local climate changes on surface circulation in the southern Benguela region. The benthic stable isotope record indicates that the studied interval is representative of the last four climatic cycles, that is, down to marine isotope Stage (MIS) 12. The species assemblages bear a clear transitional to subpolar character, with Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (d), Globorotalia inflata, and Globigerina bulloides, in order of decreasing abundance, as the dominant taxa. This species association presently characterizes the mixing domain of old upwelled and open ocean waters, seaward of the Benguela upwelling cells. Abundance variation of the dominant foraminiferal species roughly follows a glacial-interglacial pattern down to MIS 8, suggesting an alternation of upwelling strength and associated seaward extension of the belt of upwelled water as a response to global climate changes. This pattern is interrupted from ~250 ka down to MIS 12, where the phase relationship with global climate is ill defined and might be interpreted as a local response of the southern Benguela region to the mid-Brunhes event. Of particular interest is a single pulse of newly upwelled waters at the location of Site 1087 during early MIS 9 as indicated by a peak abundance of sinistral N. pachyderma (s). Variable input of warm, salty Indian Ocean thermocline waters into the southeast Atlantic, a key component of the Atlantic heat conveyor, is indicated by abundance changes of the tropical taxon Globorotalia menardii. From this tracer, we suggest that interocean exchange was hardly interrupted throughout the last 460 k.y., but was most effective at glacial terminations, particularly during Terminations I and II, as well as during the upper part of MIS 12. This maximum input of Indian Ocean waters around the southern tip of Africa is associated with the reseeding of G. menardii in the tropical Atlantic.

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The phytoplankton community composition and productivity in waters of the Amundsen Sea and surrounding sea ice zone were characterized with respect to iron (Fe) input from melting glaciers. High Fe input from glaciers such as the Pine Island Glacier, and the Dotson and Crosson ice shelves resulted in dense phytoplankton blooms in surface waters of Pine Island Bay, Pine Island Polynya, and Amundsen Polynya. Phytoplankton biomass distribution was the opposite of the distribution of dissolved Fe (DFe), confirming the uptake of glacial DFe in surface waters by phytoplankton. Phytoplankton biomass in the polynyas ranged from 0.6 to 14 µg Chl a / L, with lower biomass at glacier sites where strong upwelling of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water from beneath glacier tongues was observed. Phytoplankton blooms in the polynyas were dominated by the haptophyte Phaeocystis antarctica, whereas the phytoplankton community in the sea ice zone was a mix of P. antarctica and diatoms, resembling the species distribution in the Ross Sea. Water column productivity based on photosynthesis versus irradiance characteristics averaged 3.00 g C /m**2/d in polynya sites, which was approximately twice as high as in the sea ice zone. The highest water column productivity was observed in the Pine Island Polynya, where both thermally and salinity stratified waters resulted in a shallow surface mixed layer with high phytoplankton biomass. In contrast, new production based on NO3 uptake was similar between different polynya sites, where a deeper UML in the weakly, thermally stratified Pine Island Bay resulted in deeper NO3 removal, thereby offsetting the lower productivity at the surface. These are the first in situ observations that confirm satellite observations of high phytoplankton biomass and productivity in the Amundsen Sea. Moreover, the high phytoplankton productivity as a result of glacial input of DFe is the first evidence that melting glaciers have the potential to increase phytoplankton productivity and thereby CO2 uptake, resulting in a small negative feedback to anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

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Sea floor morphology plays an important role in many scientific disciplines such as ecology, hydrology and sedimentology since geomorphic features can act as physical controls for e.g. species distribution, oceanographically flow-path estimations or sedimentation processes. In this study, we provide a terrain analysis of the Weddell Sea based on the 500 m × 500 m resolution bathymetry data provided by the mapping project IBCSO. Seventeen seabed classes are recognized at the sea floor based on a fine and broad scale Benthic Positioning Index calculation highlighting the diversity of the glacially carved shelf. Beside the morphology, slope, aspect, terrain rugosity and hillshade were calculated. Applying zonal statistics to the geomorphic features identified unambiguously the shelf edge of the Weddell Sea with a width of 45-70 km and a mean depth of about 1200 m ranging from 270 m to 4300 m. A complex morphology of troughs, flat ridges, pinnacles, steep slopes, seamounts, outcrops, and narrow ridges, structures with approx. 5-7 km width, build an approx. 40-70 km long swath along the shelf edge. The study shows where scarps and depressions control the connection between shelf and abyssal and where high and low declination within the scarps e.g. occur. For evaluation purpose, 428 grain size samples were added to the seabed class map. The mean values of mud, sand and gravel of those samples falling into a single seabed class was calculated, respectively, and assigned to a sediment texture class according to a common sediment classification scheme.

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In 1986 participants of the Benthos Ecology Working Group of ICES conducted a synoptic mapping of the infauna of the southern and central North Sea. Together with a mapping of the infauna of the northern North Sea by Eleftheriou and Basford (1989, doi:10.1017/S0025315400049158) this provides the database for the description of the benthic infauna of the whole North Sea in this paper. Division of the infauna into assemblages by TWINSPAN analysis separated northern assemblages from southern assemblages along the 70 m depth contour. Assemblages were further separated by the 30, 50 m and 100 m depth contour as well as by the sediment type. In addition to widely distributed species, cold water species do not occur further south than the northern edge of the Dogger Bank, which corresponds to the 50 m depth contour. Warm water species were not found north of the 100 m depth contour. Some species occur on all types of sediment but most are restricted to a special sediment and therefore these species are limited in their distribution. The factors structuring species distributions and assemblages seem to be temperature, the influence of different water masses, e.g. Atlantic water, the type of sediment and the food supply to the benthos.

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To assess the relationship of radiolarian production, species distribution in water and surface sediment to water-mass characteristics, biological productivity and export regimes in the Sea of Okhotsk (SOk) we accomplished a quantitative analysis of radiolarian assemblages obtained from 35 surface-sediment samples and 115 plankton samples recording the radiolarian depth distribution in the upper 1000 m of the water column at 23 locations. This study augments the knowledge on the autecological demands of radiolarians dwelling in a specific hydrographic and biological environment, and extracts new information on the significance of radiolarians for the assessment of past oceanographic and climatic development in high latitudes. Highest radiolarian accumulation rates and seasonal radiolarian standing stocks are encountered in the western part of the SOk close to Sakhalin, marking the environmental conditions in this area as most favorable for radiolarian production. Maximum standing stocks occur during summer, indicating that the radiolarian signal preserved in the sediment record is mainly produced during this season when the mesopelagic biomass is at highest activity. We identified seven radiolarian species and groups related to specific water-mass characteristics, depth habitats, and productivity regimes. Of those, Dictyophimus hirundo and Cycladophora davisiana are most prominent in the Sea of Okhotsk Intermediate Water (200-1000 m), the latter representing an indicator of the occurrence of cold and well ventilated intermediate/deep water and enhanced export of organic matter from a highly productive ocean surface. While Antarctissa (?) sp. 1 is typically related to the cold-water Sea of Okhotsk Dicothermal Layer (SODL), ranging between 50 and 150 m water depth, the surface waters above the SODL affected by strong seasonal variability are inhabited predominantly by taxa belonging to the Spongodiscidae, having a broad environmental tolerance. Taxa only found in the sediment record show that the plankton study did not cover all assemblages occurring in the modern SOk. This accounts for an assemblage restricted to the western Kurile Basin and apparently related to environmental conditions influenced by North Pacific and Japan Sea waters. Other important taxa include species of the Plagoniidae group, representing the most prominent contributors to the SOk plankton and surface sediments. These radiolarians show a more opportunistic occurrence and are indicative of high nutrient supply in a hydrographic environment characterized by pronounced stratification enhancing heterotrophic activity and phytodetritus export.

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The conservation of birds and their habitats is essential to maintain well-functioning ecosystems including human-dominated habitats. In simplified or homogenized landscapes, patches of natural and semi-natural habitat are essential for the survival of plant and animal populations. We compared species composition and diversity of trees and birds between gallery forests, tree islands and hedges in a Colombian savanna landscape to assess how fragmented woody plant communities affect forest bird communities and how differences in habitat characteristics influenced bird species traits and their potential ecosystem function. Bird and tree diversity was higher in forests than in tree islands and hedges. Soil depth influenced woody species distribution, and canopy cover and tree height determined bird species distribution, resulting in plant and bird communities that mainly differed between forest and non-forest habitat. Bird and tree species and traits widely co-varied. Bird species in tree islands and hedges were on average smaller, less specialized to habitat and more tolerant to disturbance than in forest, but dietary differences did not emerge. Despite being less complex and diverse than forests, hedges and tree islands significantly contribute to the conservation of forest biodiversity in the savanna matrix. Forest fragments remain essential for the conservation of forest specialists, but hedges and tree islands facilitate spillover of more tolerant forest birds and their ecological functions such as seed dispersal from forest to the savanna matrix.

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This Atlas summarises the global distribution of extant organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts in the form of 61 maps illustrated by the relative abundance of individual cyst taxa in recent marine sediments from the Atlantic Ocean and adjacent basins, the Antarctic region (South Atlantic, southwestern Pacific and southern Indian Ocean sections), the Arabian Sea and the northwestern Pacific. This synthesis is based on the integration of literature sources together with data from 835 marine surface sediments prepared on a comparable methodology and taxonomy. The relationships between distribution patterns of cyst species and the surface-water parameters (temperature, salinity, phosphate and nitrate concentrations) are documented with graphs depicting the relative abundance of species in relation to seasonal and annual values of the above mentioned parameters at the sample sites. Two ordination techniques (detrended correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis) have been carried out to statistically illustrate the relationships between species distribution and sea-surface conditions. Results have been compared with previously published records and an overview of the ecological significance of each individual species is presented. Characterisations of selected environments as well as a discussion about how additional processes such as preservation and transport could have affected the present dataset are included.

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The aims of this study were (1) to assess the spatial distribution of orchid species richness in New Guinea, and (2) to examine patterns of species turnover in the orchid community through phytogeographical regionalization. We aimed to achieve these goals using botanical collection records, species distribution models (SDMs) and partitioning around medoids (PAM) clustering.

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Two expeditions, undertaken in 1994 and 1996, provided quantitatively sampled material of sublittoral and bathyal meiobenthos from the Paso Ancho of the Straits of Magellan, the Beagle Channel, and the Patagonian continental slope (Chile). To investigate whether these distinct geographic areas might also be characterised by different harpacticoid assemblages, qualitative and quantitative analyses of Copepoda Harpacticoida were carried out. At supraspecific level 25 harpacticoid families were found, as well as several species that could not yet be assigned to any major harpacticoid taxon. Due to the high amount of collected Harpacticoida, detailed investigations at species level had to be restricted to six taxa, namely the Ancorabolidae, Argestidae, Cletodidae, Diosaccinae, Paramesochridae, and Paranannopinae. The corresponding specimens were assigned to 122 species in 52 genera. More than 80% of them are new to science. Qualitative comparisons of both species composition and species distribution allow the three areas to be distinguished in terms of species richness. However, statistical analyses confirm these results only partly. Similarity analyses applying non-metrical multidimensional scaling, as well as diversity analyses using the rarefaction method, suggest that the observed differences in distribution and diversity patterns are due to small-scale, local conditions, which may overlay possible large-scale ones.

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The eastern Mediterranean is a hotspot of biological invasions. Numerous species of Indo-pacific origin have colonized the Mediterranean in recent times, including tropical symbiont-bearing foraminifera. Among these is the species Pararotalia calcariformata. Unlike other invasive foraminifera, this species has been discovered only two decades ago and is restricted to the eastern Mediterranean coast. Combining ecological, genetic and physiological observations, we attempt to explain the recent invasion of this species in the Mediterranean Sea. Using morphological and genetic data, we confirm the species attribution to P. calcariformata McCulloch 1977 and identify its symbionts as a consortium of diatom species dominated by Minutocellus polymorphus. We document photosynthetic activity of its endosymbionts using Pulse Amplitude Modulated Fluorometry and test the effects of elevated temperatures on growth rates of asexual offspring. The culturing of asexual offspring for 120 days shows a 30-day period of rapid growth followed by a period of slower growth. A subsequent 48-day temperature sensitivity experiment indicates a similar developmental pathway and high growth rate at 28°C, whereas an almost complete inhibition of growth was observed at 20°C and 35°C. This indicates that the offspring of this species may have lower tolerance to cold temperatures than what would be expected for species native to the Mediterranean. We expand this hypothesis by applying a Species Distribution Model (SDM) based on modern occurrences in the Mediterranean using three environmental variables: irradiance, turbidity and yearly minimum temperature. The model reproduces the observed restricted distribution and indicates that the range of the species will drastically expand westwards under future global change scenarios. We conclude that P. calcariformata established a population in the Levant because of the recent warming in the region. In line with observations from other groups of organisms, our results indicate that continued warming of the eastern Mediterranean will facilitate the invasion of more tropical marine taxa into the Mediterranean, disturbing local biodiversity and ecosystem structure.