Energia Solar Fotovoltaica como Fonte Alternativa de Produção de Energia Elétrica em Angola

Neste trabalho é efetuado o dimensionamento de sistemas fotovoltaicos para serem instalados em edificações localizadas em Angola com o objetivo de analisar a produção de energia elétrica através de sistemas fotovoltaicos. Utilizando o software PVsyst na versão 6.3.2 foram dimensionados três sistemas fotovoltaicos, dois sistemas destinados a ser instalados numa residência, um ligado à rede e o outro autónomo e por fim um sistema fotovoltaico ligado à rede para uma instalação industrial. A determinação dos custos de investimento nos três sistemas foi obtida de forma aproximada, tendo como base preços dos equipamentos no mercado Português e considerando os custos de importação de mercadorias no mercado Angolano. Para os sistemas ligados à rede é analisada a rentabilidade financeira do investimento durante o período de vida útil dos módulos fotovoltaicos considerando três cenários distintos. No primeiro cenário o valor da remuneração pela energia vendida pelo produtor é igual ao valor pago pela energia comprada. No segundo e terceiros cenário de análise económica pretende-se encontrar uma tarifa de energia que torne o investimento rentável com um período de amortização de 7 e 12 anos respetivamente.

Influência dos equipamentos de aquecimento, arrefecimento e AQS na certificação energética de edifícios

Na União Europeia os sectores dos transportes e da indústria são ambos grandes consumidores de energia, mas são os edifícios residenciais e de serviços onde o consumo energético é maior, e em 2005, segundo a EnerBuilding, representavam cerca de 17% dos consumos de energia primária em termos nacionais. A energia gasta com a iluminação, o aquecimento, o arrefecimento e AQS das habitações, locais de trabalho e locais de lazer é superior à consumida pelos sectores dos transportes e da indústria. As habitações representam dois terços do consumo total de energia dos edifícios europeus, o qual aumenta todos os anos com a melhoria da qualidade de vida, traduzindo-se numa maior utilização dos sistemas de climatização. Neste sentido, e de acordo com o decreto-lei que transpõe para a legislação portuguesa a diretiva comunitária relativa ao desempenho energético dos edifícios, todos os Estados da União Europeia devem ter um sistema de certificação energética para informar o cidadão sobre a qualidade térmica dos edifícios, aquando da construção, da venda ou do arrendamento. Assim, entrou em vigor em Portugal, desde 1 de Janeiro de 2009, a obrigatoriedade de apresentação de um certificado de eficiência energética, no ato de compra, venda ou aluguer de edifícios novos e existentes. A certificação energética permite assim aos futuros utilizadores dos edifícios obter informação sobre os potenciais consumos de energia, no caso dos novos edifícios ou no caso de edifícios existentes sujeitos a grandes intervenções de reabilitação, dos seus consumos reais ou aferidos para padrões de utilização típicos, passando o consumo energético a integrar um conjunto dos aspetos importantes para a caracterização de qualquer edifício. Em edifícios de serviços, o certificado energético assegura aos utentes do edifício ou da fração que este reúne condições para garantir a eficiência energética e a adequada qualidade do ar interior. Uma vez que passamos 80% do nosso tempo em edifícios, e que isto se reflete num consumo cada vez mais elevado do sector residencial e dos serviços no consumo total energético do país, este trabalho pretende fazer a comparação dos vários equipamentos de aquecimento, de arrefecimento e de AQS e qual a influência dos mesmos na certificação energética de edifícios, e consequentemente na eficiência dos mesmos, sendo que a eficiência e a certificação energética de um edifício deve ser um aspeto relevante a levar em consideração no momento do planeamento ou da construção, bem como na aquisição de uma nova habitação. Um projeto concebido de modo a tirar proveito das condições climáticas, da orientação solar, dos ventos dominantes e utilizadas técnicas construtivas e os materiais adequados, é possível reduzir os gastos energéticos com a iluminação ou os sistemas de climatização.

Signature optique d’effet Stark dans une bicouche de CuPc:C60

Les hétérojonctions formées de deux matériaux, un donneur et un accepteur (D/A), sont la base de la majorité des mélanges photovoltaïques organiques. Les mécanismes de séparation des charges dans ces systèmes représentent aujourd'hui l'un des sujets les plus chauds et les plus débattus dans ce domaine. Nous entrons au coeur de ce débat en choisissant un système D/A à base de phtalocyanine de cuivre (CuPc) et de fullerène (C60). Pour sonder les états excités de nos molécules et obtenir de l'information sur les phénomènes à l'interface D/A, nous réalisons une expérience pompe-sonde, appelée absorption photoinduite (PIA). Nous y mesurons le changement fractionnaire de transmission au travers de l'échantillon. Les mesures de PIA sont réalisées à l'état de quasi équilibre, à T=10K. Nous observons une modulation prononcée dans la région du photoblanchiment de l'état fondamental qui nous indique que la pompe induit un décalage du spectre d'absorption de l'état fondamental. Ce décalage peut être expliqué par deux processus : soit l'échantillon est chauffé par la pompe (effet thermique) ou bien des charges sont créées à l'interface entre les deux matériaux (effet Stark). La dépendance en température du spectre d'absorption entre 10K et 290K montre une signature thermique pour un changement de température de 80K. Grâce au ratio des raies Raman anti-Stokes et Stokes, nous démontrons que la pompe chauffe l'échantillon de 34 K, température insuffisante pour attribuer notre signal à un effet thermique. Nous évaporons ensuite la bicouche CuPc/C60 sur de l'ITO et du saphir, substrats qui possèdent des conductivités thermiques différentes et nous observons le même signal de PIA, excluant par le fait même l'hypothèse de l'effet thermique. Puisque notre étude est comparable à la spectroscopie à effet Stark, nous procédons à une analyse similaire en comparant notre signal de PIA au spectre de la transmittance et à ses dérivés première et seconde. Nous observons alors que notre signal reproduit presque parfaitement la dérivée seconde de la transmittance. Ces résultats sont conformes à une signature optique d'effet Stark due à la création de charges à l'interface D/A.

Studies on the Synthesis and Transformations of A Few Dibenzoylalkene – Type Systems

The aim of the study is to synthesise several dibenzoylakene-type systems such as acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones 47 and phenanthrenone-9-ylidene ketones 48 by the condensation reaction of acenaphthenequinone and phenanthrenequinone with methyl ketones. Here studies the thermal and photochemical transformations of acenaphthaenone-2-ylidene ketones 3a-c.These acenaphthenone –2-ylidene ketones underwent extensive decomposition on heating. The objectives of present study is to synthesise acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of acenaphthenequinone and methyl ketones, it is to synthesise phenanthrenone –9-ylidene ketones by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of phenanthrequinone and methyl ketones, thermal studies on acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones and phenanthrenone-9-ylidene ketones, photochemical studies on acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones and phenanthrenone –9-ylidene ketones to establish the generality of dibenzoyalkene rearrangement. Cyclic voltammetric studies on these dibezoyalkenes to compare their redox behaviour with that of the cis and trans isomers of dibenzoyl-ethylene, dibenzoylstilbene. These results should provide some information about their reactivity, and to assess and exploit the potential of these systems as quinonemethides. This study conclude that a number of new dibenzolalkene-type systems have been synthesized by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of 1,2-diketones such as phenanthequinone and acenaphthenequinone with methyl ketones. Some of these compounds have been shown to undergo interesting photochemical transformations. Based on the results it is conclude that phenanthjrenone-9-ylidene ketones are excellent Michael acceptors. Methanol adds to these to yield the corresponding furanols. These furanols are unstable and are slowly converted to phenanthro-2 (3H)-furanones.

Studies on the Synthesis and Transformations of a Few Dibenzoylalkene-type Systems

The aim of the study is to synthesise several dibenzoylakene-type systems such as acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones 47 and phenanthrenone-9-ylidene ketones 48 by the condensation reaction of acenaphthenequinone and phenanthrenequinone with methyl ketones. Here studies the thermal and photochemical transformations of acenaphthaenone-2-ylidene ketones 3a-c.These acenaphthenone –2-ylidene ketones underwent extensive decomposition on heating. The objectives of present study is to synthesise acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of acenaphthenequinone and methyl ketones, it is to synthesise phenanthrenone –9-ylidene ketones by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of phenanthrequinone and methyl ketones, thermal studies on acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones and phenanthrenone-9-ylidene ketones, photochemical studies on acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones and phenanthrenone –9-ylidene ketones to establish the generality of dibenzoyalkene rearrangement. Cyclic voltammetric studies on these dibezoyalkenes to compare their redox behaviour with that of the cis and trans isomers of dibenzoyl-ethylene, dibenzoylstilbene. These results should provide some information about their reactivity, and to assess and exploit the potential of these systems as quinonemethides. This study conclude that a number of new dibenzolalkene-type systems have been synthesized by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of 1,2-diketones such as phenanthequinone and acenaphthenequinone with methyl ketones. Some of these compounds have been shown to undergo interesting photochemical transformations. Based on the results it is conclude that phenanthjrenone-9-ylidene ketones are excellent Michael acceptors. Methanol adds to these to yield the corresponding furanols. These furanols are unstable and are slowly converted to phenanthro-2 (3H)-furanones

Effects and Modifications in In/Se and In/Sb Systems by Swift Heavy Ion Irradiation

Department of Physics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Photodegradation of Methylorange over Zirconia Doped TiO2 Using Solar Energy

The heterogeneous photocatalytic degradation of methylorange over TiO2 is studied and is found to be cost effective. Effect of Zirconium metal incorporation over titania system is investigated. Photocatalytic degradation of methylorange using solar radiation is found to be highly economical when compared with the processes using artificial UV radiation, which require substantial electrical power input. The characterization of titania as well as modified zirconium metal doped titania systems are done using XRD, FTIR and EDAX measurements. The catalytic activities of different systems are also compared and is tried to correlate with the crystallite size and presence of dopant metal.

Development of solar air heaters & thermal energy storage system for drying applications in food processing industries

In the present work, the author has designed and developed all types of solar air heaters called porous and nonporous collectors. The developed solar air heaters were subjected to different air mass flow rates in order to standardize the flow per unit area of the collector. Much attention was given to investigate the performance of the solar air heaters fitted with baffles. The output obtained from the experiments on pilot models, helped the installation of solar air heating system for industrial drying applications also. Apart from these, various types of solar dryers, for small and medium scale drying applications, were also built up. The feasibility of ‘latent heat thermal energy storage system’ based on Phase Change Material was also undertaken. The application of solar greenhouse for drying industrial effluent was analyzed in the present study and a solar greenhouse was developed. The effectiveness of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in the field of solar air heaters was also analyzed. The thesis is divided into eight chapters.

Synthesis, Characterization and Applications of Modified TiO2 Systems

This thesis is divided in to 9 chapters and deals with the modification of TiO2 for various applications include photocatalysis, thermal reaction, photovoltaics and non-linear optics. Chapter 1 involves a brief introduction of the topic of study. An introduction to the applications of modified titania systems in various fields are discussed concisely. Scope and objectives of the present work are also discussed in this chapter. Chapter 2 explains the strategy adopted for the synthesis of metal, nonmetal co-doped TiO2 systems. Hydrothermal technique was employed for the preparation of the co-doped TiO2 system, where Ti[OCH(CH3)2]4, urea and metal nitrates were used as the sources for TiO2, N and metals respectively. In all the co-doped systems, urea to Ti[OCH(CH3)2]4 was taken in a 1:1 molar ratio and varied the concentration of metals. Five different co-doped catalytic systems and for each catalysts, three versions were prepared by varying the concentration of metals. A brief explanation of physico-chemical techniques used for the characterization of the material was also presented in this chapter. This includes X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Raman Spectroscopy, FTIR analysis, Thermo Gravimetric Analysis, Energy Dispersive X-ray Analysis (EDX), Scanning Electron Microscopy(SEM), UV-Visible Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy (UV-Vis DRS), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), BET Surface Area Measurements and X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS). Chapter 3 contains the results and discussion of characterization techniques used for analyzing the prepared systems. Characterization is an inevitable part of materials research. Determination of physico-chemical properties of the prepared materials using suitable characterization techniques is very crucial to find its exact field of application. It is clear from the XRD pattern that photocatalytically active anatase phase dominates in the calcined samples with peaks at 2θ values around 25.4°, 38°, 48.1°, 55.2° and 62.7° corresponding to (101), (004), (200), (211) and (204) crystal planes (JCPDS 21-1272) respectively. But in the case of Pr-N-Ti sample, a new peak was observed at 2θ = 30.8° corresponding to the (121) plane of the polymorph brookite. There are no visible peaks corresponding to dopants, which may be due to their low concentration or it is an indication of the better dispersion of impurities in the TiO2. Crystallite size of the sample was calculated from Scherrer equation byusing full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the (101) peak of the anatase phase. Crystallite size of all the co-doped TiO2 was found to be lower than that of bare TiO2 which indicates that the doping of metal ions having higher ionic radius into the lattice of TiO2 causes some lattice distortion which suppress the growth of TiO2 nanoparticles. The structural identity of the prepared system obtained from XRD pattern is further confirmed by Raman spectra measurements. Anatase has six Raman active modes. Band gap of the co-doped system was calculated using Kubelka-Munk equation and that was found to be lower than pure TiO2. Stability of the prepared systems was understood from thermo gravimetric analysis. FT-IR was performed to understand the functional groups as well as to study the surface changes occurred during modification. EDX was used to determine the impurities present in the system. The EDX spectra of all the co-doped samples show signals directly related to the dopants. Spectra of all the co-doped systems contain O and Ti as the main components with low concentrations of doped elements. Morphologies of the prepared systems were obtained from SEM and TEM analysis. Average particle size of the systems was drawn from histogram data. Electronic structures of the samples were identified perfectly from XPS measurements. Chapter 4 describes the photocatalytic degradation of herbicides Atrazine and Metolachlor using metal, non-metal co-doped titania systems. The percentage of degradation was analyzed by HPLC technique. Parameters such as effect of different catalysts, effect of time, effect of catalysts amount and reusability studies were discussed. Chapter 5 deals with the photo-oxidation of some anthracene derivatives by co-doped catalytic systems. These anthracene derivatives come underthe category of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). Due to the presence of stable benzene rings, most of the PAH show strong inhibition towards biological degradation and the common methods employed for their removal. According to environmental protection agency, most of the PAH are highly toxic in nature. TiO2 photochemistry has been extensively investigated as a method for the catalytic conversion of such organic compounds, highlighting the potential of thereof in the green chemistry. There are actually two methods for the removal of pollutants from the ecosystem. Complete mineralization is the one way to remove pollutants. Conversion of toxic compounds to another compound having toxicity less than the initial starting compound is the second way. Here in this chapter, we are concentrating on the second aspect. The catalysts used were Gd(1wt%)-N-Ti, Pd(1wt%)-N-Ti and Ag(1wt%)-N-Ti. Here we were very successfully converted all the PAH to anthraquinone, a compound having diverse applications in industrial as well as medical fields. Substitution of 10th position of desired PAH by phenyl ring reduces the feasibility of photo reaction and produced 9-hydroxy 9-phenyl anthrone (9H9PA) as an intermediate species. The products were separated and purified by column chromatography using 70:30 hexane/DCM mixtures as the mobile phase and the resultant products were characterized thoroughly by 1H NMR, IR spectroscopy and GCMS analysis. Chapter 6 elucidates the heterogeneous Suzuki coupling reaction by Cu/Pd bimetallic supported on TiO2. Sol-Gel followed by impregnation method was adopted for the synthesis of Cu/Pd-TiO2. The prepared system was characterized by XRD, TG-DTG, SEM, EDX, BET Surface area and XPS. The product was separated and purified by column chromatography using hexane as the mobile phase. Maximum isolated yield of biphenyl of around72% was obtained in DMF using Cu(2wt%)-Pd(4wt%)-Ti as the catalyst. In this reaction, effective solvent, base and catalyst were found to be DMF, K2CO3 and Cu(2wt%)-Pd(4wt%)-Ti respectively. Chapter 7 gives an idea about the photovoltaic (PV) applications of TiO2 based thin films. Due to energy crisis, the whole world is looking for a new sustainable energy source. Harnessing solar energy is one of the most promising ways to tackle this issue. The present dominant photovoltaic (PV) technologies are based on inorganic materials. But the high material, low power conversion efficiency and manufacturing cost limits its popularization. A lot of research has been conducted towards the development of low-cost PV technologies, of which organic photovoltaic (OPV) devices are one of the promising. Here two TiO2 thin films having different thickness were prepared by spin coating technique. The prepared films were characterized by XRD, AFM and conductivity measurements. The thickness of the films was measured by Stylus Profiler. This chapter mainly concentrated on the fabrication of an inverted hetero junction solar cell using conducting polymer MEH-PPV as photo active layer. Here TiO2 was used as the electron transport layer. Thin films of MEH-PPV were also prepared using spin coating technique. Two fullerene derivatives such as PCBM and ICBA were introduced into the device in order to improve the power conversion efficiency. Effective charge transfer between the conducting polymer and ICBA were understood from fluorescence quenching studies. The fabricated Inverted hetero junction exhibited maximum power conversion efficiency of 0.22% with ICBA as the acceptor molecule. Chapter 8 narrates the third order order nonlinear optical properties of bare and noble metal modified TiO2 thin films. Thin films were fabricatedby spray pyrolysis technique. Sol-Gel derived Ti[OCH(CH3)2]4 in CH3CH2OH/CH3COOH was used as the precursor for TiO2. The precursors used for Au, Ag and Pd were the aqueous solutions of HAuCl4, AgNO3 and Pd(NO3)2 respectively. The prepared films were characterized by XRD, SEM and EDX. The nonlinear optical properties of the prepared materials were investigated by Z-Scan technique comprising of Nd-YAG laser (532 nm,7 ns and10 Hz). The non-linear coefficients were obtained by fitting the experimental Z-Scan plot with the theoretical plots. Nonlinear absorption is a phenomenon defined as a nonlinear change (increase or decrease) in absorption with increasing of intensity. This can be mainly divided into two types: saturable absorption (SA) and reverse saturable absorption (RSA). Depending on the pump intensity and on the absorption cross- section at the excitation wavelength, most molecules show non- linear absorption. With increasing intensity, if the excited states show saturation owing to their long lifetimes, the transmission will show SA characteristics. Here absorption decreases with increase of intensity. If, however, the excited state has strong absorption compared with that of the ground state, the transmission will show RSA characteristics. Here in our work most of the materials show SA behavior and some materials exhibited RSA behavior. Both these properties purely depend on the nature of the materials and alignment of energy states within them. Both these SA and RSA have got immense applications in electronic devices. The important results obtained from various studies are presented in chapter 9.

Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

Projecte de la intal·lació de calefacció i ACS amb energia solar i caldera de biomassa en un edifici de quatre vivendes.

Projecte de la instal•lació de calefacció i agua calenta utilitzant energia solar tèrmica i ajudant-se d’ una caldera de biomassa en un edifici en construcció situat a Colera (Alt Empordà). Es tracta d’un bloc de quatre vivendes distribuïdes en dues plantes, soterrani i terrassa superior

Instal•lació solar tèrmica per la producció d’ACS i climatització de 10 H.P.O. a Quart

Aquesta instal•lació solar tèrmica s’ha dissenyat per cobrir part de les necessitats energètiques d’un edifici que consta de 10 habitatges de protecció oficial construïts en 2 plantes a la localitat de Quart. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és arribar a una cobertura solar aproximada del 50% de les necessitats d’ aigua calenta sanitària (ACS) i climatització

Stratospheric temperature and radiative forcing response to 11-year solar cycle changes in irradiance and ozone

The 11-yr solar cycle temperature response to spectrally resolved solar irradiance changes and associated ozone changes is calculated using a fixed dynamical heating (FDH) model. Imposed ozone changes are from satellite observations, in contrast to some earlier studies. A maximum of 1.6 K is found in the equatorial upper stratosphere and a secondary maximum of 0.4 K in the equatorial lower stratosphere, forming a double peak in the vertical. The upper maximum is primarily due to the irradiance changes while the lower maximum is due to the imposed ozone changes. The results compare well with analyses using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and NCEP/NCAR datasets. The equatorial lower stratospheric structure is reproduced even though, by definition, the FDH calculations exclude dynamically driven temperature changes, suggesting an important role for an indirect dynamical effect through ozone redistribution. The results also suggest that differences between the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU)/Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and ERA-40 estimates of the solar cycle signal can be explained by the poor vertical resolution of the SSU/MSU measurements. The adjusted radiative forcing of climate change is also investigated. The forcing due to irradiance changes was 0.14 W m−2, which is only 78% of the value obtained by employing the standard method of simple scaling of the total solar irradiance (TSI) change. The difference arises because much of the change in TSI is at wavelengths where ozone absorbs strongly. The forcing due to the ozone change was only 0.004 W m−2 owing to strong compensation between negative shortwave and positive longwave forcings.

The role of eddies in driving the tropospheric response to stratospheric heating perturbations

A simplified general circulation model has been used to investigate the chain of causality whereby changes in tropospheric circulation and temperature are produced in response to stratospheric heating perturbations. Spinup ensemble experiments have been performed to examine the evolution of the tropospheric circulation in response to such perturbations. The primary aim of these experiments is to investigate the possible mechanisms whereby a tropospheric response to changing solar activity over the 11-yr solar cycle could be produced in response to heating of the equatorial lower stratosphere. This study therefore focuses on a stratospheric heating perturbation in which the heating is largest in the tropics. For comparison, experiments are also performed in which the stratosphere is heated uniformly at all latitudes and in which it is heated preferentially in the polar region. Thus, the mechanisms discussed have a wider relevance for the impact of stratospheric perturbations on the troposphere. The results demonstrate the importance of changing eddy momentum fluxes in driving the tropospheric response. This is confirmed by the lack of a similar response in a zonally symmetric model with fixed eddy forcing. Furthermore, it is apparent that feedback between the tropospheric eddy fluxes and tropospheric circulation changes is required to produce the full model response. The quasigeostrophic index of refraction is used to diagnose the cause of the changes in eddy behavior. It is demonstrated that the latitudinal extent of stratospheric heating is important in determining the direction of displacement of the tropospheric jet and storm track.

Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot.