Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life,human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources forEarthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over thecourse of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the formof a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capabilityto manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves theexisting knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system willat first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursormonitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarningsystem. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine,integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing andnew proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, faultmaps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the maincomponents of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precisionin the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It isbased in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-eventdamage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of ageographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs toprovide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, suchas the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included.

Monitoring drug therapy.

Drug development has improved over recent decades, with refinements in analytical techniques, population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modelling and simulation, and new biomarkers of efficacy and tolerability. Yet this progress has not yielded improvements in individualization of treatment and monitoring, owing to various obstacles: monitoring is complex and demanding, many monitoring procedures have been instituted without critical assessment of the underlying evidence and rationale, controlled clinical trials are sparse, monitoring procedures are poorly validated and both drug manufacturers and regulatory authorities take insufficient account of the importance of monitoring. Drug concentration and effect data should be increasingly collected, analyzed, aggregated and disseminated in forms suitable for prescribers, along with efficient monitoring tools and evidence-based recommendations regarding their best use. PK-PD observations should be collected for both novel and established critical drugs and applied to observational data, in order to establish whether monitoring would be suitable. Methods for aggregating PK-PD data in systematic reviews should be devised. Observational and intervention studies to evaluate monitoring procedures are needed. Miniaturized monitoring tests for delivery at the point of care should be developed and harnessed to closed-loop regulated drug delivery systems. Intelligent devices would enable unprecedented precision in the application of critical treatments, i.e. those with life-saving efficacy, narrow therapeutic margins and high interpatient variability. Pharmaceutical companies, regulatory agencies and academic clinical pharmacologists share the responsibility of leading such developments, in order to ensure that patients obtain the greatest benefit and suffer the least harm from their medicines.

Determination of hydraulic properties of a tropical soil of Hawaii using column experiments and inverse modeling

A method for determining soil hydraulic properties of a weathered tropical soil (Oxisol) using a medium-sized column with undisturbed soil is presented. The method was used to determine fitting parameters of the water retention curve and hydraulic conductivity functions of a soil column in support of a pesticide leaching study. The soil column was extracted from a continuously-used research plot in Central Oahu (Hawaii, USA) and its internal structure was examined by computed tomography. The experiment was based on tension infiltration into the soil column with free outflow at the lower end. Water flow through the soil core was mathematically modeled using a computer code that numerically solves the one-dimensional Richards equation. Measured soil hydraulic parameters were used for direct simulation, and the retention and soil hydraulic parameters were estimated by inverse modeling. The inverse modeling produced very good agreement between model outputs and measured flux and pressure head data for the relatively homogeneous column. The moisture content at a given pressure from the retention curve measured directly in small soil samples was lower than that obtained through parameter optimization based on experiments using a medium-sized undisturbed soil column.

Uncertainties in the prediction of spatial variability of soil CO2 emissions and related properties

The soil CO2 emission has high spatial variability because it depends strongly on soil properties. The purpose of this study was to (i) characterize the spatial variability of soil respiration and related properties, (ii) evaluate the accuracy of results of the ordinary kriging method and sequential Gaussian simulation, and (iii) evaluate the uncertainty in predicting the spatial variability of soil CO2 emission and other properties using sequential Gaussian simulations. The study was conducted in a sugarcane area, using a regular sampling grid with 141 points, where soil CO2 emission, soil temperature, air-filled pore space, soil organic matter and soil bulk density were evaluated. All variables showed spatial dependence structure. The soil CO2 emission was positively correlated with organic matter (r = 0.25, p < 0.05) and air-filled pore space (r = 0.27, p < 0.01) and negatively with soil bulk density (r = -0.41, p < 0.01). However, when the estimated spatial values were considered, the air-filled pore space was the variable mainly responsible for the spatial characteristics of soil respiration, with a correlation of 0.26 (p < 0.01). For all variables, individual simulations represented the cumulative distribution functions and variograms better than ordinary kriging and E-type estimates. The greatest uncertainties in predicting soil CO2 emission were associated with areas with the highest estimated values, which produced estimates from 0.18 to 1.85 t CO2 ha-1, according to the different scenarios considered. The knowledge of the uncertainties generated by the different scenarios can be used in inventories of greenhouse gases, to provide conservative estimates of the potential emission of these gases.

Human papilloma virus type and recurrence rate after surgical clearance of anal condylomata acuminata.

BACKGROUND: Anal condylomata acuminata (ACA) are caused by human papilloma virus (HPV) infection which is transmitted by close physical and sexual contact. The result of surgical treatment of ACA has an overall success rate of 71% to 93%, with a recurrence rate between 4% and 29%. The aim of this study was to assess a possible association between HPV type and ACA recurrence after surgical treatment. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 140 consecutive patients who underwent surgery for ACA from January 1990 to December 2005 at our tertiary University Hospital. We confirmed ACA by histopathological analysis and determined the HPV typing using the polymerase chain reaction. Patients gave consent for HPV testing and completed a questionnaire. We looked at the association of ACA, HPV typing, and HIV disease. We used chi, the Monte Carlo simulation, and Wilcoxon tests for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Among the 140 patients (123 M/17 F), HPV 6 and 11 were the most frequently encountered viruses (51% and 28%, respectively). Recurrence occurred in 35 (25%) patients. HPV 11 was present in 19 (41%) of these recurrences, which is statistically significant, when compared with other HPVs. There was no significant difference between recurrence rates in the 33 (24%) HIV-positive and the HIV-negative patients. CONCLUSIONS: HPV 11 is associated with higher recurrence rate of ACA. This makes routine clinical HPV typing questionable. Follow-up is required to identify recurrence and to treat it early, especially if HPV 11 has been identified.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Maize yield and rainfall on different spatial and temporal scales in Southern Brazil

This study aimed to establish relationships between maize yield and rainfall on different temporal and spatial scales, in order to provide a basis for crop monitoring and modelling. A 16-year series of maize yield and daily rainfall from 11 municipalities and micro-regions of Rio Grande do Sul State was used. Correlation and regression analyses were used to determine associations between crop yield and rainfall for the entire crop cycle, from tasseling to 30 days after, and from 5 days before tasseling to 40 days after. Close relationships between maize yield and rainfall were found, particularly during the reproductive period (45-day period comprising the flowering and grain filling). Relationships were closer on a regional scale than at smaller scales. Implications of the crop-rainfall relationships for crop modelling are discussed.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

Melt/peridotite interaction in the Southern Lanzo peridotite: Field, textural and geochemical evidence

This paper presents field, petrographic-structural and geochemical data on spinet and plagioclase peridotites from the southern domain of the Lanzo ophiolitic peridotite massif (Western Alps). Spinet lherzolites, harzburgites and dunites crop out at Mt. Arpone and Mt. Musine. Field evidence indicates that pristine porphyroclastic spinet lherzolites are transformed to coarse granular spinet harzburgites, which are in turn overprinted by plagioclase peridotites, while strongly depleted spinet harzburgite and dunite bands and bodies replace the plagioclase peridotites. On the northern flank of Mt. Arpone, deformed, porphyroclastic (lithospheric) lherzolites, with diffuse pyroxenite banding, represent the oldest spinel-facies rocks. They show microstructures of a composite subsolidus evolution, suggesting provenance from deeper (asthenospheric) mantle levels and accretion to the lithosphere. These protoliths are locally transformed to coarse granular (reactive) spinet harzburgites and dunites, which show textures reminiscent of melt/rock reaction and geochemical characteristics suggesting that they are products of peridotite interaction with reactively percolating melts. Geochemical data and modelling suggest that <1-5% fractional melting of spinel-facies DMM produced the injected melts. Plagioclase peridotites are hybrid rocks resulting from pre-existing spinet peridotites and variable enrichment of plagioclase and micro-gabbroic material by percolating melts. The impregnating melts attained silica-saturation, as testified by widespread orthopyroxene replacement of olivine, during open system migration in the lithosphere. At Mt. Musine, coarse granular spinet harzburgite and dunite bodies replace the plagioclase peridotites. Most of these replacive, refractory peridotites have interstitial magmatic clinopyroxene with trace element compositions in equilibrium with MORB, while some Cpx have REE-depleted patterns suggesting transient geochemical features of the migrating MORB-type melts, acquired by interaction with the ambient plagioclase peridotite. These replacive spinet harzburgite and dunite bodies are interpreted as channels exploited for focused and reactive migration of silica-undersaturated melts with aggregate MORB compositions. Such melts were unrelated to the silica-saturated melts that refertilized the pre-existing plagioclase peridotites. Finally, MORB melt migration occurred along open fractures, now recorded as gabbroic dikes. Our data document the complexity of rock-types and mantle processes in the South Lanzo peridotite massif and describe a composite tectonic and magmatic scenario that is not consistent with the ``asthenospheric scenario'' proposed by previous authors. We envisage a ``transitional scenario'' in which extending subcontinental lithospheric mantle was strongly modified (both depleted and refertilized) by early melts with MORB-affinity formed by decompression partial melting of the upwelling asthenosphere, during pre-oceanic rifting and lithospheric thinning in the Ligurian Tethys realm. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Modeling and Synthesis of Tracking Control for the Belt Drive System

Usingof belt for high precision applications has become appropriate because of the rapid development in motor and drive technology as well as the implementation of timing belts in servo systems. Belt drive systems provide highspeed and acceleration, accurate and repeatable motion with high efficiency, long stroke lengths and low cost. Modeling of a linear belt-drive system and designing its position control are examined in this work. Friction phenomena and position dependent elasticity of the belt are analyzed. Computer simulated results show that the developed model is adequate. The PID control for accurate tracking control and accurate position control is designed and applied to the real test setup. Both the simulation and the experimental results demonstrate that the designed controller meets the specified performance specifications.

Flow phenomena, heat and mass transfer in microchannel reactors

The studies of flow phenomena, heat and mass transfer in microchannel reactors are beneficial to estimate and evaluate the ability of microchannel reactors to be operated for a given process reaction such as Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The flow phenomena, for example, the flow regimes and flow patterns in microchannel reactors for both single phase and multiphase flow are affected by the configuration of the flow channel. The reviews of the previous works about the analysis of related parameters that affect the flow phenomena are shown in this report. In order to predict the phenomena of Fischer-Tropsch synthesis in microchannel reactors, the 3-dimensional computational fluid dynamic simulation with commercial software package FLUENT was done to study the flow phenomena and heat transfer for gas phase Fischer-Tropsch products flow in rectangular microchannel with hydraulic diameter 500 ¿m and length 15 cm. Numerical solution with slip boundary condition was used in the simulation and the flowphenomena and heat transfer were determined.

Aspects on Process Engineering in the Finnish Pulp and Paper Industry : Thesis for the Degree of Licentiate in Science of Technology

Process development will be largely driven by the main equipment suppliers. The reason for this development is their ambition to supply complete plants or process systems instead of single pieces of equipment. The pulp and paper companies' interest lies in product development, as their main goal is to create winning brands and effective brand management. Design engineering companies will find their niche in detail engineering based on approved process solutions. Their development work will focus on increasing the efficiency of engineering work. Process design is a content-producing profession, which requires certain special characteristics: creativity, carefulness, the ability to work as a member of a design team according to time schedules and fluency in oral as well as written presentation. In the future, process engineers will increasingly need knowledge of chemistry as well as information and automation technology. Process engineering tools are developing rapidly. At the moment, these tools are good enough for static sizing and balancing, but dynamic simulation tools are not yet good enough for the complicated chemical reactions of pulp and paper chemistry. Dynamic simulation and virtual mill models are used as tools for training the operators. Computational fluid dynamics will certainlygain ground in process design.