Stable water isotope composition of precipitation from O'Higgins Station, Antarctica, 2008-2009

In order to investigate the climate variability in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region, this paper focuses on the relationship between stable isotope content of precipitation and firn, and main meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity, sea surface temperature, and sea ice extent). Between 2008 and 2010, we collected precipitation samples and retrieved firn cores from several key sites in this region. We conclude that the deuterium excess oscillation represents a robust indicator of the meteorological variability on a seasonal to sub-seasonal scale. Low absolute deuterium excess values and the synchronous variation of both deuterium excess and air temperature imply that the evaporation of moisture occurs in the adjacent Southern Ocean. The d18O-air temperature relationship is complicated and significant only at a (multi)seasonal scale. Backward trajectory calculations show that air-parcels arriving at the region during precipitation events predominantly originate at the South Pacific Ocean and Bellingshausen Sea. These investigations will be used as a calibration for ongoing and future research in the area, suggesting that appropriate locations for future ice core research are located above 600 m a.s.l. We selected the Plateau Laclavere, Antarctic Peninsula as the most promising site for a deeper drilling campaign.

Spatio-temporal Variability of Atmospheric Ozone over Indian Subcontinent and its Relation to Meteorological Parameters

Ozone present in the atmosphere not only absorbs the biologically harmful ultraviolet radiation but also is an important ingredient of the climate system. The radiative absorption properties of ozone make it a determining factor in the structure of the atmosphere. Ozone in the troposphere has many negative impacts on humans and other living beings. Another significant aspect is the absorption of outgoing infrared radiation by ozone thus acting as a greenhouse gas. The variability of ozone in the atmosphere involves many interconnections with the incoming and outgoing radiation, temperature circulation etc. Hence ozone forms an important part of chemistry-climate as well as radiative transfer models. This aspect also makes the quantification of ozone more important. The discovery of Antarctic ozone hole and the role of anthropogenic activities in causing it made it possible to plan and implement necessary preventive measures. Continuous monitoring of ozone is also necessary to identify the effect of these preventive steps. The reactions involving the formation and destruction of ozone are influenced significantly by the temperature fluctuations of the atmosphere. On the other hand the variations in ozone can change the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Indian subcontinent is a region having large weather and climate variability which is evident from the large interannual variability of monsoon system over the region. Nearly half of Indian region comprises the tropical region. Most of ozone is formed in the tropical region and transported to higher latitudes. The formation and transport of ozone can be influenced by changes in solar radiation and various atmospheric circulation features. Besides industrial activities and vehicular traffic is more due to its large population. This may give rise to an increase in the production of tropospheric ozone which is greenhouse gas. Hence it becomes necessary to monitor the atmospheric ozone over this region. This study probes into the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of ozone over Indian subcontinent and discusses the contributing atmospheric parameters.

The Roles of Land and Orography on Precipitation and Ocean Circulation in Global Climate Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Fishers’ perception on livelihood strategies, adaptation and mitigation measures to cope with changes in climate variables around Lake Wamala, Uganda

Fisheries support livelihoods but are threatened by climate variability and change which intensified since the 1970s. This study used quantitative and qualitative methods to determine the extent to which fishers around Lake Wamala in Uganda were copying with perceived changes in climate variables and the impacts on their livelihoods, to generate knowledge to enable the fishers increase resilience and sustain their livelihoods. Fishers were aware of changes in climate manifested by unpredictable seasons, floods and droughts. Fishing was the main livelihood activity. The African catfish had replaced Nile tilapia as the dominant fish species. There was damage and loss of gear, boats, landing sites and lives, and changes in fish catches and sizes, income and fish consumption during the perceived floods and droughts. The fishers adapted to the changes through increasing time on fishing grounds and changing target species and fishing gears but innovative ones diversified to high value crops and livestock which increased their income beyond what was earned from fishing thus acting as an incentive for some of them to quit fishing. Diversification to non-fishery activities as a form of adaptation was enhanced by membership to social groups, weekly fishing days, fishing experience and age of fishers but its benefits were not equally shared among men and women. Mitigation measures included planting trees, mulching gardens and protecting wetlands. Adaptation and mitigation measures were constrained by limited credit, awareness and land. The required interventions included improving access to credit, irrigation facilities and appropriate planting materials and raising awareness. The study showed that the fishers were aware of changes in climatic variables and the impacts on their livelihoods. There were also adaptation and mitigation measures practiced by the fishers which if promoted and their constraints addressed, could increase resilience of fishers to climatic change and sustain their livelihoods.

Use of business analysis in beef businesses to direct management practice change for climate adaptation outcomes

Beef businesses in northern Australia are facing increased pressure to be productive and profitable with challenges such as climate variability and poor financial performance over the past decade. Declining terms of trade, limited recent gains in on-farm productivity, low profit margins under current management systems and current climatic conditions will leave little capacity for businesses to absorb climate change-induced losses. In order to generate a whole-of-business focus towards management change, the Climate Clever Beef project in the Maranoa-Balonne region of Queensland trialled the use of business analysis with beef producers to improve financial literacy, provide a greater understanding of current business performance and initiate changes to current management practices. Demonstration properties were engaged and a systematic approach was used to assess current business performance, evaluate impacts of management changes on the business and to trial practices and promote successful outcomes to the wider industry. Focus was concentrated on improving financial literacy skills, understanding the business’ key performance indicators and modifying practices to improve both business productivity and profitability. To best achieve the desired outcomes, several extension models were employed: the ‘group facilitation/empowerment model’, the ‘individual consultant/mentor model’ and the ‘technology development model’. Providing producers with a whole-of-business approach and using business analysis in conjunction with on-farm trials and various extension methods proved to be a successful way to encourage producers in the region to adopt new practices into their business, in the areas of greatest impact. The areas targeted for development within businesses generally led to improvements in animal performance and grazing land management further improving the prospects for climate resilience.

Analyse des données de la mission Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) sur des bassins versants choisis au Canada pour la caractérisation des eaux souterraines.

Résumé : Les eaux souterraines ont un impact majeur sur la vie terrestre, les besoins domestiques et le climat. Elles sont aussi un maillon essentiel du cycle hydrologique. Au Canada par exemple, plus de 30 % de la population est tributaire des eaux souterraines pour leur alimentation en eau potable. Ces ressources subissent de nombreuses pressions sous l’influence de certains facteurs comme la salinisation, la contamination et l’épuisement. La variabilité du climat et la demande croissante sur ces ressources imposent l'amélioration de nos connaissances sur les eaux souterraines. L’objectif principal du projet de recherche est d’exploiter les données d’anomalies (TWS) de la mission Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) pour localiser, quantifier et analyser les variations des eaux souterraines à travers les bassins versants du Bas-Mackenzie, du Saint-Laurent, du Nord-Québec et du Labrador. Il s’agit aussi d’analyser l’influence des cycles d’accumulation et de fonte de neige sur les variations du niveau des eaux souterraines. Pour estimer les variations des eaux souterraines, la connaissance des autres paramètres du bilan hydrologique est nécessaire. Ces paramètres sont estimés à l’aide des sorties du modèles de surface CLM du Système Global d’Assimilation des Données de la Terre (GLDAS). Les données GRACE qui ont été utilisées sont celles acquises durant la période allant de mars 2002 à août 2012. Les résultats ont été évalués à partir d’enregistrements de niveaux piézométriques provenant de 1841 puits localisés dans les aquifères libres du bassin des réseaux de suivi des eaux souterraines au Canada. Les valeurs de rendements spécifiques des différents types d’aquifères de chaque puits et celles des variations mensuelles du niveau d’eau dans ces puits ont été utilisées pour estimer les variations des anomalies des eaux souterraines in-situ. L’étude de corrélation entre les variations des anomalies des eaux souterraines estimées à partir de la combinaison GRACE-GLDAS et celles issues de données in-situ révèle des concordances significatives avec des valeurs de

Report of the Workshop on Growth-increment Chronologies in Marine Fish: climate-ecosystem interactions in the North Atlantic 2 (WKGIC2). 18-22 April 2016 Esporles, Mallorca, Spain

Over the past several decades, thousands of otoliths, bivalve shells, and scales have been collected for the purposes of age determination and remain archived in European and North American fisheries laboratories. Advances in digital imaging and computer software combined with techniques developed by tree-ring scientists provide a means by which to extract additional levels of information in these calcified structures and generate annually resolved (one value per year), multidecadal time-series of population-level growth anomalies. Chemical and isotopic properties may also be extracted to provide additional information regarding the environmental conditions these organisms experienced.Given that they are exactly placed in time, chronologies can be directly compared to instrumental climate records, chronologies from other regions or species, or time-seriesof other biological phenomena. In this way, chronologies may be used to reconstruct historical ranges of environmental variability, identify climatic drivers of growth, establish linkages within and among species, and generate ecosystem-level indicators. Following the first workshop in Hamburg, Germany, in December 2014, the second workshop on Growth increment Chronologies in Marine Fish: climate-ecosystem interactions in the North Atlantic (WKGIC2) met at the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies headquarters in Esporles, Spain, on 18–22 April 2016, chaired by Bryan Black (USA) and Christoph Stransky (Germany).Thirty-six participants from fifteen different countries attended. Objectives were to i) review the applications of chronologies developed from growth-increment widths in the hard parts (otoliths, shells, scales) of marine fish and bivalve species ii) review the fundamentals of crossdating and chronology development, iii) discuss assumptions and limitations of these approaches, iv) measure otolith growth-increment widths in image analysis software, v) learn software to statistically check increment dating accuracy, vi) generate a growth increment chronology and relate it to climate indices, and vii) initiate cooperative projects or training exercises to commence after the workshop.The workshop began with an overview of tree-ring techniques of chronology development, including a hands-on exercise in cross dating. Next, we discussed the applications of fish and bivalve biochronologies and the range of issues that could be addressed. We then reviewed key assumptions and limitations, especially those associated with short-lived species for which there are numerous and extensive otolith archives in European fisheries labs. Next, participants were provided with images of European plaice otoliths from the North Sea and taught to measure increment widths in image analysis software. Upon completion of measurements, techniques of chronology development were discussed and contrasted to those that have been applied for long-lived species. Plaice growth time-series were then related to environmental variability using the KNMI Climate Explorer. Finally, potential future collaborations and funding opportunities were discussed, and there was a clear desire to meet again to compare various statistical techniques for chronology development using a range existing fish, bivalve, and tree growth-increment datasets. Overall, we hope to increase the use of these techniques, and over the long term, develop networks of biochronologies for integrative analyses of ecosystem functioning and relationships to long-term climate variability and fishing pressure.

The scientific rationale, design and implementation plan for a Biogeochemical-Argo float array

Biogeochemical-Argo is the extension of the Argo array of profiling floats to include floats that are equipped with biogeochemical sensors for pH, oxygen, nitrate, chlorophyll, suspended particles, and downwelling irradiance. Argo is a highly regarded, international program that measures the changing ocean temperature (heat content) and salinity with profiling floats distributed throughout the ocean. Newly developed sensors now allow profiling floats to also observe biogeochemical properties with sufficient accuracy for climate studies. This extension of Argo will enable an observing system that can determine the seasonal to decadal-scale variability in biological productivity, the supply of essential plant nutrients from deep-waters to the sunlit surface layer, ocean acidification, hypoxia, and ocean uptake of CO2. Biogeochemical-Argo will drive a transformative shift in our ability to observe and predict the effects of climate change on ocean metabolism, carbon uptake, and living marine resource management. Presently, vast areas of the open ocean are sampled only once per decade or less, with sampling occurring mainly in summer. Our ability to detect changes in biogeochemical processes that may occur due to the warming and acidification driven by increasing atmospheric CO2, as well as by natural climate variability, is greatly hindered by this undersampling. In close synergy with satellite systems (which are effective at detecting global patterns for a few biogeochemical parameters, but only very close to the sea surface and in the absence of clouds), a global array of biogeochemical sensors would revolutionize our understanding of ocean carbon uptake, productivity, and deoxygenation. The array would reveal the biological, chemical, and physical events that control these processes. Such a system would enable a new generation of global ocean prediction systems in support of carbon cycling, acidification, hypoxia and harmful algal blooms studies, as well as the management of living marine resources. In order to prepare for a global Biogeochemical-Argo array, several prototype profiling float arrays have been developed at the regional scale by various countries and are now operating. Examples include regional arrays in the Southern Ocean (SOCCOM ), the North Atlantic Sub-polar Gyre (remOcean ), the Mediterranean Sea (NAOS ), the Kuroshio region of the North Pacific (INBOX ), and the Indian Ocean (IOBioArgo ). For example, the SOCCOM program is deploying 200 profiling floats with biogeochemical sensors throughout the Southern Ocean, including areas covered seasonally with ice. The resulting data, which are publically available in real time, are being linked with computer models to better understand the role of the Southern Ocean in influencing CO2 uptake, biological productivity, and nutrient supply to distant regions of the world ocean. The success of these regional projects has motivated a planning meeting to discuss the requirements for and applications of a global-scale Biogeochemical-Argo program. The meeting was held 11-13 January 2016 in Villefranche-sur-Mer, France with attendees from eight nations now deploying Argo floats with biogeochemical sensors present to discuss this topic. In preparation, computer simulations and a variety of analyses were conducted to assess the resources required for the transition to a global-scale array. Based on these analyses and simulations, it was concluded that an array of about 1000 biogeochemical profiling floats would provide the needed resolution to greatly improve our understanding of biogeochemical processes and to enable significant improvement in ecosystem models. With an endurance of four years for a Biogeochemical-Argo float, this system would require the procurement and deployment of 250 new floats per year to maintain a 1000 float array. The lifetime cost for a Biogeochemical-Argo float, including capital expense, calibration, data management, and data transmission, is about $100,000. A global Biogeochemical-Argo system would thus cost about $25,000,000 annually. In the present Argo paradigm, the US provides half of the profiling floats in the array, while the EU, Austral/Asia, and Canada share most the remaining half. If this approach is adopted, the US cost for the Biogeochemical-Argo system would be ~$12,500,000 annually and ~$6,250,000 each for the EU, and Austral/Asia and Canada. This includes no direct costs for ship time and presumes that float deployments can be carried out from future research cruises of opportunity, including, for example, the international GO-SHIP program (http://www.go-ship.org). The full-scale implementation of a global Biogeochemical-Argo system with 1000 floats is feasible within a decade. The successful, ongoing pilot projects have provided the foundation and start for such a system.

Assessment of Flood Risk Under Future Climate Conditions

Global climate change is predicted to have impacts on the frequency and severity of flood events. In this study, output from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for a range of possible future climate scenarios was used to force hydrologic models for four case study watersheds built using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). GCM output was applied with either the "delta change" method or a bias correction. Potential changes in flood risk are assessed based on modeling results and possible relationships to watershed characteristics. Differences in model outputs when using the two different methods of adjusting GCM output are also compared. Preliminary results indicate that watersheds exhibiting higher proportions of runoff in streamflow are more vulnerable to changes in flood risk. The delta change method appears to be more useful when simulating extreme events as it better preserves daily climate variability as opposed to using bias corrected GCM output.

Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow’s Milk

This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow’s milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

Analysis of heat-related phenomena and their interactions at different spatio-temporal scales

This thesis analyzes the impact of heat extremes in urban and rural environments, considering processes related to severely high temperatures and unusual dryness. The first part deals with the influence of large-scale heatwave events on the local-scale urban heat island (UHI) effect. The temperatures recorded over a 20-year summer period by meteorological stations in 37 European cities are examined to evaluate the variations of UHI during heatwaves with respect to non-heatwave days. A statistical analysis reveals a negligible impact of large-scale extreme temperatures on the local daytime urban climate, while a notable exacerbation of UHI effect at night. A comparison with the UrbClim model outputs confirms the UHI strengthening during heatwave episodes, with an intensity independent of the climate zone. The investigation of the relationship between large-scale temperature anomalies and UHI highlights a smooth and continuous dependence, but with a strong variability. The lack of a threshold behavior in this relationship suggests that large-scale temperature variability can affect the local-scale UHI even in different conditions than during extreme events. The second part examines the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought, being the first stage of the drought propagation process. A multi-year reanalysis dataset involving numerous drought events over the Iberian Peninsula is considered. The behavior of different non-parametric standardized drought indices in drought detection is evaluated. A statistical approach based on run theory is employed, analyzing the main characteristics of drought propagation. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought events is found to develop in about 1-2 months. The duration of agricultural drought appears shorter than that of meteorological drought, but the onset is delayed. The propagation probability increases with the severity of the originating meteorological drought. A new combined agricultural drought index is developed to be a useful tool for balancing the characteristics of other adopted indices.

REPRODUCTIVE BIOLOGY IN FEMALES OF AEGLA STRINATII (DECAPODA: ANOMURA: AEGLIDAE)

Females of Aegla strinatii (n = 466) were sampled monthly (September 2003 to September 2005) by means of sieves and traps from Rio das Ostras (24 degrees 38'16.2 '' S; 48 degrees 24'05.2 '' W), at Jacupiranga State Park, South of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The reproductive period was markedly seasonal (from May to September) encompassing the Austral late autumn through late winter. This is in accordance to the pattern of reproductive period variations in relation to the latitudinal climate variability verified in species of Aegla. The proportion of adult females exhibiting the ovigerous condition was higher in young/small specimens as compared to old/large ones, and suggests the occurrence of senescence in the latter group. Average size at the onset of functional maturity in females was estimated as 16.66 mm of carapace length (rostrum excluded). The number of eggs per ovigerous females ranged from 1 to 325. Eggs are slightly elliptical and average size varied according to embryonic stage. Mean (+/- standard deviation) carapace length of juveniles (n = 118) was 1.50 +/- 0.05 mm (range: 1.40-1.65mm).

The impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation phases on off-season maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil

In recent years, maize has become one of the main alternative crops for the autumn winter growing season in the central-western and southeastern regions of Brazil. However, water deficits, sub-optimal temperatures and low solar radiation levels are common problems that are experienced during this growing season by local farmers. One methodology to assess the impact of variable weather conditions on crop production is the use of crop simulation models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate variability on maize yield for a subtropical region of Brazil. Specific objectives for this study were (1) to analyse the effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on precipitation and air temperature for four locations in the state of Sao Paulo and (2) to analyse the impact of ENSO on maize grown off-season for the same four locations using a crop simulation model. For each site, historical weather data were categorised as belonging to one of three phases of ENSO: El Nino (warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific), La Nina (cool sea surface temperature anomalies) or neutral, based on an index derived from observed sea surface temperature anomalies. During El Nino, there is a tendency for an increase in the rainfall amount during May for the four selected locations, and also during April, mainly in three of the locations, resulting in an increase in simulated maize yield planted between February 15 and March 15. In general, there was a decrease in the simulated yield for maize grown off-season during neutral years. This study showed how a crop model can be used to assess the impact of climate variability on the yield of maize grown off-season in a subtropical region of Brazil. The outcomes of this study can be very useful for both policy makers and local farmers for agricultural planning and decision making. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Annual growth rings in the mangrove Laguncularia racemosa (Combretaceae)

Stem discs from trees of known age were used to determine the periodic nature of the growth rings formed in Laguncularia racemosa and to describe the anatomical features of these rings. The growth rings were scarcely distinct on microscopic examination, but they were well distinguishable macroscopically, with alternating light brown and dark brown layers. Cross-dating analysis revealed the occurrence of annual growth rings in L. racemosa. The existence of annual growth rings in L. racemosa suggests that it may have great potential for dendrochronology and should encourage age-related studies on the dynamics of mangrove forests. These studies can be important for the evaluation of climate change impact on mangrove ecosystems, as well as for the analysis of effects related to climate variability on plant communities.

Between-year fluctuations in schizophrenia birth rate and associations with the Southern Oscillation Index, cloud cover and sunshine

Our group have recently proposed that low prenatal vitamin D may be a risk-modifying factor for schizophrenia. Climate variability impacts on vitamin D levels in a population via fluctuations in the amount of available UV radiation. In order to explore this hypothesis, we examined fluctuations in the birthrates for people with schizophrenia born between 1920 and 1967 and three sets of variables strongly associated with UV radiation. These included: (a) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a marker of El Nino which is the most prominent meteorological factor that influences Queensland weather: (b) measures of cloud cover and (c) measures of sunshine. Schizophrenia births were extracted from the Queensland Mental Health register and corrected for background population birth rates. Schizophrenia birth rates had several apparently non-random features in common with the SO1. The prominent SO1 fluctuation event that occurred between 1937 and 1943 is congruent with the most prominent fluctuation in schizophrenia birth rates. The relatively flat profile of SOI activity between 1927 and 1936 also corresponds to the flattest period in the schizophrenia time series. Both time series have prominent oscillations in the 3 ~, year range between 1946 and 1960. Significant associations between schizophrenia birth rates and measures of both sunshine and cloud cover were identified,and all three time series shared periodicity in the 3-4 year range. The analyses suggest that the risk of schizophrenia is higher for those born during times of increased cloud cover,reduced sunshine and positive SO1. These ecological analyses provide initial support for the vitamin D hypothesis, however alternative non-genetic candidate exposures also need to be considered. Other sites with year-to-year fluctuations in cloud cover and sunshine should examine patterns of association between these climate variables and schizophrenia birth rates. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.