Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Contract law

Livro editado para celebrar dos 10 anos da Faculdade de Direito da UNL

Obama's law : analysis of a breakthrough law on healthcare access and lessons for the Portuguese health system management

ABSTRACT - The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act shook the foundations of the US health system, offering all Americans access to health care by changing the way the health insurance industry works. As President Obama signed the Act on 23 March 2010, he said that it stood for “the core principle that everybody should have some basic security when it comes to their health care”. Unlike the U.S., the Article 64 of the Portuguese Constitution provides, since 1976, the right to universal access to health care. However, facing a severe economic crisis, Portugal has, under the supervision of the Troika, a tight schedule to implement measures to improve the efficiency of the National Health Service. Both countries are therefore despite their different situation, in a conjuncture of reform and the use of new health management measures. The present work, using a qualitative research methodology examines the Affordable Care Act in order to describe its principles and enforcement mechanisms. In order to describe the reality in Portugal, the Portuguese health system and the measures imposed by Troika are also analyzed. The intention of this entire analysis is not only to disclose the innovative U.S. law, but to find some innovative measures that could serve health management in Portugal. Essentially we identified the Exchanges and Wellness Programs, described throughout this work, leaving also the idea of the possibility of using them in the Portuguese national health system.

2008 Portuguese tobacco law: What are the effects on smoking rates?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Troia Roman baths (Portugal) – Assessment of history of interventions

International Seminar in Conservation. A Tribute to Cesari Brandi. Lisboa, LNEC, May 2006, p.273-282

Le plurilinguisme dans le roman portugais contemporain (1963- 1983): caractéristiques, configurations linguistiques et énonciatives

THÈSE pour l’obtention du grade de DOCTEUR

Growth and unemployment: understanding Okun's law for Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

O SUJEITO DE SI NO DISCURSO MEDIEVAL - EM TORNO DO SOLILÓQUIO (DE SANTO AGOSTINHO AO ROMAN DE TRISTAN DE THOMAS D'ANGLETERRE)

Agostinho parece ter sido o primeiro a utilizar o termo solilóquio para designar uma forma específica do diálogo interior da alma que coloca como interlocutores o eu e si próprio. De certa forma, esta estrutura dialógica do solilóquio prolonga os diálogos socráticos, mas situando a interrogação do eu sobre si mesmo no interior do eu, ou seja, tornando-a um exercício preponderantemente mental ainda que passe pelo discurso verbal. O objectivo é fazer desenrolar um diálogo interior em que o indivíduo se vai dando conta progressivamente da ignorância em que está acerca de si mesmo. O Soliloquium1 , atribuído a Agostinho, aprofunda e insiste nesta vertente do discurso interior que constituía já o modo discursivo nas Confissões. Com a utilização desta técnica cria-se um novo procedimento ético segundo o qual a literatura é posta ao serviço da filosofia.

How to optimize Lipton’s business model in order to stimulate tea consumption in Portugal and increase Lipton Leaf tea market share?: The importance of distribution and sales channels management in a B2B2C market

Field Lab Entrepreneurial Innovative Ventures

The Vase’s Representation (Cantharus, Crater) on the Roman Mosaic in Portugal: A Significant Formal and Iconographic Path from Classic Antiquity to Late Antiquity

11TH INTERNATIONAL COLLOQUIUM ON ANCIENT MOSAICS OCTOBER 16TH  20TH, 2009, BURSA TURKEY Mosaics of Turkey and Parallel Developments in the Rest of the Ancient and Medieval World: Questions of Iconography, Style and Technique from the Beginnings of Mosaic until the Late Byzantine Era

O uso da força no Direito Internacional = Use of force in Public International Law

Versão online da Revista Brasileira de Estudos Políticos, Belo Horizonte, nº 107, pp. 149-200, jul./dez.2013

Área 'non aedificandi' em domínio privado. História breve do interstício entre prédios em Portugal

Partindo dos dispositivos jurídicos em vigor (Código Civil e Regulamento Geral das Edificações Urbanas) e recuando até às antigas influências jurídicas (romanas e islâmicas), neste artigo procura-se perceber como os interstícios entre prédios em Portugal foram estabelecidos ao longo do tempo pela ordem jurídica. São contextualizadas e analisadas as antigas normas da almotaçaria e as normas contemporâneas, procurando perceber inovações e persistências. Por fim, realça-se a importância deste conhecimento para o estudo da forma urbana portuguesa.

How to promote and enhance communication between a big retailer's after-sales department and its suppliers

W is the biggest electronic goods retailer in Portugal accounting with almost fifty percent of market share in its area. During the last years, many small W suppliers had to close their doors, and many others are in huge troubles. Among the reason for this situation, the huge bargaining power of W in the relationship seems crucial. The focus of the directed research will be in the after sales department where I did an internship from September 2014 to January 2015.

Increasing sales volume in mass business through inbound contact center

Field lab: Consulting lab