Cyclone intensity categories

The weather forecast centers in Australia and many other countries use a scale of cyclone intensity categories (categories 1-5) in their cyclone advisories, which are considered to be indicative of the cyclone damage potential. However, this scale is mainly based on maximum gust wind speeds. In a recent research project involving computer modeling of cyclonic wind forces on roof claddings and fatigue damage to claddings, it was found that cyclone damage not only depends on the maximum gust wind speed, but also on two other cyclone parameters, namely, the forward speed and radius to maximum winds. This paper describes the computer model used in predicting the cyclone damage to claddings and investigates the damage potential of a cyclone as a function of all the relevant cyclone parameters, based on which it attempts to refine the current scale of cyclone intensity categories.

Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

What's in it for me? Virtual conspicuous donation strategies as a source of value in blood donation

Providing an incentive is becoming common practice among blood service organisations. Driven by self-orientated motives rather than pure philanthropic intentions, research is showing that people increasingly want something in return for their support. It is contended that individuals donate conspicuously with the hope it will improve their social standing. Yet there is limited evidence for the effectiveness of conspicuous recognition strategies, and no studies, to the researcher’s knowledge, that have examined conspicuous donation strategies in an online social media context. There is a need to understand what value drives individuals to donate blood, and whether conspicuous donation strategies are a source of such value post blood donation. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualise how conspicuous donation strategies, in the form of virtual badges on social media sites, can be applied to the social behaviour of blood donation, as a value-adding tool, to encourage repeat behaviour.

Communication Interception Technology (CIT) and its use in the fight against Transnational Organised Crime (TOC) in Australia : a review of the literature

In recent times, technology has advanced in such a manner that the world can now communicate in means previously never thought possible. Transnational organised crime groups, who have exploited these new technologies as basis for their criminal success, however, have not overlooked this development, growth and globalisation. Law enforcement agencies have been confronted with an unremitting challenge as they endeavour to intercept, monitor and analyse these communications as a means of disrupting the activities of criminal enterprises. The challenge lies in the ability to recognise and change tactics to match an increasingly sophisticated adversary. The use of communication interception technology, such as phone taps or email interception, is a tactic that when used appropriately has the potential to cause serious disruption to criminal enterprises. Despite the research that exists on CIT and TOC, these two bodies of knowledge rarely intersect. This paper builds on current literature, drawing them together to provide a clearer picture of the use of CIT in an enforcement and intelligence capacity. It provides a review of the literature pertaining to TOC, the structure of criminal enterprises and the vulnerability of communication used by these crime groups. Identifying the current contemporary models of policing it reviews intelligence-led policing as the emerging framework for modern policing. Finally, it assesses the literature concerning CIT, its uses within Australia and the limitations and arguments that exist. In doing so, this paper provides practitioners with a clearer picture of the use, barriers and benefits of using CIT in the fight against TOC. It helps to bridge the current gaps in modern policing theory and offers a perspective that can help drive future research.

Why is there no genetics in phylogenetics : misconceptions, clarification and solutions

Fundamental misconceptions regarding some basic phylogenetic terminology are presented in this opinion piece. An attempt is made to point out why these misconceptions exist and what may be causing the misapplication of terminology. Clarification is providing via basic definitions and simple explanations. Differences between the scientific fields of genetics and population genetics are discussed. The appropriate use of terminology is advocated and alternative terms are proposed to eliminate one potential source of confusion. It is suggested we use 'sequence data' instead of molecular data and 'non-sequence data' instead of morphological data in the field of phylogenetics and systematics.

Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Primary stability of two uncemented acetabular components of different geometry : hemispherical or peripherally enhanced?

Objective This study compared the primary stability of two commercially available acetabular components from the same manufacturer, which differ only in geometry; a hemispherical and a peripherally enhanced design (peripheral self-locking (PSL)). The objective was to determine whether altered geometry resulted in better primary stability. Methods Acetabular components were seated with 0.8 mm to 2 mm interference fits in reamed polyethylene bone substrate of two different densities (0.22 g/cm3 and 0.45 g/cm3). The primary stability of each component design was investigated by measuring the peak failure load during uniaxial pull-out and tangential lever-out tests. Results There was no statistically significant difference in seating force (p = 0.104) or primary stability (pull-out p = 0.171, lever-out p = 0.087) of the two components in the low-density substrate. Similarly, in the high-density substrate, there was no statistically significant difference in the peak pull-out force (p = 0.154) or lever-out moment (p = 0.574) between the designs. However, the PSL component required a significantly higher seating force thanthe hemispherical cup in the high-density bone analogue (p = 0.006). Conclusions Higher seating forces associated with the PSL design may result in inadequate seating and increased risk of component malpositioning or acetabular fracture in the intra-operative setting in high-density bone stock. Our results, if translated clinically, suggest that a purely hemispherical geometry may have an advantage over a peripherally enhanced geometry in high density bone stock.

Atmospheric particles as a pollutant source in the urban water environment in Sri Lanka – current research trends and future directions

Human and ecosystem health impacts imposed by water pollution are a major problem in the urban areas of Sri Lanka. A primary source of pollutants to urban water sources is atmospheric particles. Hence, it is important to develop a detailed understanding of atmospheric particle characteristics, their sources of origin and the transport pathways. Several research studies have been conducted in Sri Lanka on atmospheric pollution and these studies have tended to differ in their scope, study region and the investigated pollutants. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to report the outcomes of a detailed state-of-art literature review of atmospheric pollution related studies in Sri Lanka to understand the current trends and (2) to discuss the future research activities necessary to generate the important knowledge required for the development of effective strategies to control the adverse impacts of atmospheric pollution on urban waterways.

Gene Silencing in Arabidopsis Spreads from the Root to the Shoot, through a Gating Barrier, by Template-Dependent, Nonvascular, Cell-to-Cell Movement

Upward long-distance mobile silencing has been shown to be phloem mediated in several different solanaceous species. We show that the Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) seedling grafting system and a counterpart inducible system generate upwardly spreading long-distance silencing that travels not in the phloem but by template-dependent reiterated short-distance cell-to-cell spread through the cells of the central stele. Examining the movement of the silencing front revealed a largely unrecognized zone of tissue, below the apical meristem, that is resistant to the silencing signal and that may provide a gating or protective barrier against small RNA signals. Using a range of auxin and actin transport inhibitors revealed that, in this zone, alteration of vesicular transport together with cytoskeleton dynamics prevented or retarded the spread of the silencing signal. This suggests that small RNAs are transported from cell to cell via plasmodesmata rather than diffusing from their source in the phloem.

Timing and source constraints on the relationship between mafic and felsic intrusions in the Emeiashan large igneous province

Several I- and A-type granite, syenite plutons and spatially associated, giant Fe–Ti–V deposit-bearing mafic ultramafic layered intrusions occur in the Pan–Xi(Panzhihua–Xichang) area within the inner zone of the Emeishan large igneous province (ELIP). These complexes are interpreted to be related to the Emeishan mantle plume. We present LA-ICP-MS and SIMS zircon U–Pb ages and Hf–Nd isotopic compositions for the gabbros, syenites and granites from these complexes. The dating shows that the age of the felsic intrusive magmatism (256.2 ± 3.0–259.8 ± 1.6 Ma) is indistinguishable from that of the mafic intrusive magmatism (255.4 ± 3.1–259.5 ± 2.7 Ma) and represents the final phase of a continuous magmatic episode that lasted no more than 10 Myr. The upper gabbros in the mafic–ultramafic intrusions are generally more isotopically enriched (lower eNd and eHf) than the middle and lower gabbros, suggesting that the upper gabbros have experienced a higher level of crustal contamination than the lower gabbros. The significantly positive eHf(t) values of the A-type granites and syenites (+4.9 to +10.8) are higher than those of the upper gabbros of the associated mafic intrusion, which shows that they cannot be derived by fractional crystallization of these bodies. They are however identical to those of the mafic enclaves (+7.0 to +11.4) and middle and lower gabbros, implying that they are cogenetic. We suggest that they were generated by fractionation of large-volume, plume-related basaltic magmas that ponded deep in the crust. The deep-seated magma chamber erupted in two stages: the first near a density minimum in the basaltic fractionation trend and the second during the final stage of fractionation when the magma was a low density Fe-poor, Si-rich felsic magma. The basaltic magmas emplaced in the shallowlevel magma chambers differentiated to form mafic–ultramafic layered intrusions accompanied by a small amount of crustal assimilation through roof melting. Evolved A-type granites (synenites and syenodiorites) were produced dominantly by crystallization in the deep crustal magma chamber. In contrast, the I-type granites have negative eNd(t) [-6.3 to -7.5] and eHf(t) [-1.3 to -6.7] values, with the Nd model ages (T Nd DM2) of 1.63-1.67 Ga and Hf model ages (T Hf DM2) of 1.56-1.58 Ga, suggesting that they were mainly derived from partial melting of Mesoproterozoic crust. In combination with previous studies, this study also shows that plume activity not only gave rise to reworking of ancient crust, but also significant growth of juvenile crust in the center of the ELIP.

Fine tuning of elasticity via crosslinking collagen-based materials to mediate mechanotransduction and stability using corona treatment

The common goal of tissue engineering is to develop substitutes that can closely mimic the structure of extracellular matrix (ECM). However, similarly important is the intensive material properties which have often been overlooked, in particular, for soft tissues that are not to bear load assumingly. The mechanostructural properties determine not only the structural stability of biomaterials but also their physiological functionality by directing cellular activity and regulating cell fate decision. The aim here is to emphasize that cells could sense intensive material properties like elasticity and reside, proliferate, migrate and differentiate accordinglyno matter if the construct is from a natural source like cartilage, skin etc. or of synthetic one. Meanwhile, the very objective of this work is to provide a tunable scheme for manipulating the elasticity of collagen-based constructs to be used to demonstrate how to engineer cell behavior and regulate mechanotransduction. Articular cartilage was chosen as it represents one of the most complex hierarchical arrangements of collagen meshwork in both connective tissues and ECM-like biomaterials. Corona discharge treatment was used to produce constructs with varying density of crosslinked collagen and stiffness accordingly. The results demonstrated that elastic modulus increased up to 33% for samples treated up to one minute as crosslink density was found to increase with exposure time. According to the thermal analysis, longer exposure to corona increased crosslink density as the denaturation enthalpy increased. However the spectroscopy results suggested that despite the stabilization of the collagen structure the integrity of the triple helical structure remained intact. The in vitro superficial culture of heterologous chondrocytes also determined that the corona treatment can modulate migration with increased focal adhesion of cells due to enhanced stiffness, without cytotoxicity effects, and providing the basis for reinforcing three-dimensional collagen-based biomaterials in order to direct cell function and mediate mechanotransduction.

Twitter and society : an introduction

Since its launch in 2006, Twitter has turned from a niche service to a mass phenomenon. By the beginning of 2013, the platform claims to have more than 200 million active users, who “post over 400 million tweets per day” (Twitter, 2013). Its success is spreading globally; Twitter is now available in 33 different languages, and has significantly increased its support for languages that use non-Latin character sets. While Twitter, Inc. has occasionally changed the appearance of the service and added new features—often in reaction to users’ developing their own conventions, such as adding ‘#’ in front of important keywords to tag them—the basic idea behind the service has stayed the same: users may post short messages (tweets) of up to 140 characters and follow the updates posted by other users. This leads to the formation of complex follower networks with unidirectional as well as bidirectional connections between individuals, but also between media outlets, NGOs, and other organisations. While originally ‘microblogs’ were perceived as a new genre of online communication, of which Twitter was just one exemplar, the platform has become synonymous with microblogging in most countries. A notable exception is Sina Weibo, popular in China where Twitter is not available. Other similar platforms have been shut down (e.g., Jaiku), or are being used in slightly different ways (e.g., Tumblr), thus making Twitter a unique service within the social media landscape.