Sedimentological and paleomagnetic investigations on two gravity cores and ODP sites 113-690 and 693 off Kapp Norvegia, Antarctic continental margin

Oligocene to Quaternary sediments were recovered from the Antarctic continental margin in the eastern Weddell Sea during ODP Leg 113 and Polarstern expedition ANT-VI. Clay mineral composition and grain size distribution patterns are useful for distinguishing sediments that have been transported by ocean currents from those that were ice-rafted. This, in turn, has assisted in providing insights about the changing late Paleogene to Neogene sedimentary environment as the cryosphere developed in Antarctica. During the middle Oligocene, increasing glacial conditions on the continent are indicated by the presence of glauconite sands, that are interpreted to have formed on the shelf and then transported down the continental slope by advancing glaciers or as a result of sea-level lowering. The dominance of illite and a relatively high content of chlorite suggest predominantly physical weathering conditions on the continent. The high content of biogenic opal from the late Miocene to the late Pliocene resulted from increased upwelling processes at the continental margin due to increased wind strength related to global cooling. Partial melting of the ice-sheet occurred during an early Pliocene climate optimum as is shown by an increasing supply of predominantly current-derived sediment with a low mean grain size and peak values of smectite. Primary productivity decreased at ~ 3 Ma due to the development of a permanent sea-ice cover close to the continent. Late Pleistocene sediments are characterized by planktonic foraminifers and biogenic opal, concentrated in distinct horizons reflecting climatic cycles. Isotopic analysis of AT. pachyderma produced a stratigraphy which resulted in a calculated sedimentation rate of 1 cm/k.y. during the Pleistocene. Primary productivity was highest during the last three interglacial maxima and decreased during glacial episodes as a result of increasing sea-ice coverage.

Sedimentological investigations of a sediment core profile from the continental slope of the South Orkney Islands

Sediment patterns such as texture, composition, and facies from three selected areas of the Antarctic continental margin of the Weddell Sea are discussed in relation to environmental variations of the Quaternary hydrosphere and kryosphere. Advance and retreat of ice shelves as well as oscillations in sea ice coverage are reflected by particular sediment facies. The distribution of ice-rafted detritus tracks the Antarctic Coastal Current, and the Weddell Sea Bottom water contour current can be recognized by its distinctive winnowing and erosion pattern. Distribution and abundance of biogenic sediment components are mainly controlled by duration of sea ice coverage reflecting the long-term climatic evolution.

Grain size analysis on core plugs of sediment core CRP-1 (Table 1, 2)

Twenty four core samples from CRP-1, seven from Quaternary strata (20-43.55 meters below sea floor or mbsf) and seventeen from early Miocene strata (43.55 to 147.69 mbsf), have been analysed for their grain-size distribution using standard sieve and Sedigraph techniques. The results are in good agreement with estimates of texture made as part of the visual core description for the 1 :20 core logs for CRP-1 (Cape Roberts Science Team, 1998). Interpretation of the analyses presented here takes into account the likely setting of the site in Quaternary times as it is today, with CRP-1 high on the landward flank of a well-defined submarine ridge rising several hundred metres above basins on either side. In contrast, seismic geometries for strata deposited in early Miocene times indicate a generally planar sea floor dipping gently seaward. Fossils from these strata indicate shallow water depths (< 100 m), indicating the possibility that waves and tidal currents may have influenced sea floor sediments. The sediments analysed here are considered in terms of 3 textural facies: diamict, mud (silt and clay) and sand. Most of the Quaternary section but only 30% of the early Miocene section is diamict, a poorly sorted mixture of sand and mud with scattered clasts, indicating little wave or current influence on its texture. Although not definitive, diamict textures and other features suggest that the sediment originated as basal glacial debris but has been subsequently modified by minor winnowing, consistent with the field interpretation of this facies as ice-proximal and distal glaciomarine sediment. Sediments deposited directly from glacier ice appear to be lacking. Mud facies sediments, which comprise only 10% of the Quaternary section but a third of the early Miocene section, were deposited below wave base and largely from suspension, and show features (described elsewhere in this volume) indicative of the influence of both glacial and sediment gravity flow processes. Sand facies sediments have a considerable proportion of mud, normally more than 20%, but a well-sorted fine-very fine sand fraction. In the context of the early Miocene coastal setting we interpret these sediments as shoreface sands close to wave base.

Volume changes of Jacobshavn Isbrae between 1985, 1997 and 2007

Following three decades of relative stability, Jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland, underwent dramatic thinning, retreat and speed-up starting in 1998. To assess the amount of ice loss, we analyzed 1985 aerial photos and derived a 40 m grid digital elevation model (DEM). We also obtained a 2007 40 m grid SPOT DEM covering the same region. Comparison of the two DEMs over an area of ~4000 km**2 revealed a total ice loss of 160 ± 4 km**3, with 107 ± 0.2 km**3 in grounded regions (0.27 mm eustatic sea-level rise) and 53 ± 4 km**3 from the disintegration of the floating tongue. Comparison of the DEMs with 1997 NASA Airborne Topographic Mapper data indicates that this ice loss essentially occurred after 1997, with +0.7 ± 5.6 km**3 between 1985 and 1997 and -160 ± 7 km**3 between 1997 and 2007. The latter is equivalent to an average specific mass balance of -3.7 ± 0.2 m/a over the study area. Previously reported thickening of the main glacier during the early 1990s was accompanied by similar-magnitude thinning outside the areas of fast flow, indicating that the land-based ice continued reacting to longer-term climate forcing.

Sedimentology on cores off Filchner Shelf Ice, Weddell Sea, Antarctica

Sediment sampling with box corer and gravity corer was conducted along a profile parallel to the Filchner/Rønne Ice Shelf, from 48° to 61°W. Twenty-two sampling locations were determined after evaluation of 12 and 3.5 kHz sub-bottom profiling records. The sediment retrievals show a wide diversity, varying from very well sorted pure sands in the SE of the profile to heavily glacially influenced, pebbly muds close to the foot of the Antarctic Peninsula. In the middle part of the profile mainly soft sediments of muddy to sandy muds were found which were partially influenced by glacially derived dropstones or accumulations of pebble-sized material. The striking changes of surface sediments (marine to glacial) observed along the profile led to an attempt to investigate the concurrence of marine and glacial depositional processes controlling the accumulation of these recent sediments.

Geochemistry, grain sizes and radiocarbon age of sediment core Lz1005 from Amery Oasis, East Antarctica

The clay mineralogical composition of a 552 cm long sediment core from Lake Terrasovoje in Amery Oasis, East Antarctica, was analysed and compared with that in surface sediments from other locations in the vicinity. The lower part of the sediment core is formed by sub- and proglacial sediments with a dominance of smectite and illite, and lower amounts of kaolinite and chlorite. The upper part of the core is deposited after 12 500 cal yr bp and mainly composed of illite and kaolinite, with low amounts of smectite and chlorite, such as found in samples from rock outcrops and covering sediments throughout Amery Oasis. The clay composition in the lower section of core Lz1005 suggest that the basin of Lake Terrasovoje was filled by a 150-200 m thickened Nemesis Glacier prior to 12 500 cal yr bp rather than by local ice caps.

Grain size composition of sediment cores from the Weddell Sea, Antarctica

Sedimentary processes in the southeastern Weddell Sea are influenced by glacial-interglacial ice-shelf dynamics and the cyclonic circulation of the Weddell Gyre, which affects all water masses down to the sea floor. Significantly increased sedimentation rates occur during glacial stages, when ice sheets advance to the shelf edge and trigger gravitational sediment transport to the deep sea. Downslope transport on the Crary Fan and off Dronning Maud and Coats Land is channelized into three huge channel systems, which originate on the eastern-, the central and the western Crary Fan. They gradually turn from a northerly direction eastward until they follow a course parallel to the continental slope. All channels show strongly asymmetric cross sections with well-developed levees on their northwestern sides, forming wedge-shaped sediment bodies. They level off very gently. Levees on the southeastern sides are small, if present at all. This characteristic morphology likely results from the process of combined turbidite-contourite deposition. Strong thermohaline currents of the Weddell Gyre entrain particles from turbidity-current suspensions, which flow down the channels, and carry them westward out of the channel where they settle on a surface gently dipping away from the channel. These sediments are intercalated with overbank deposits of high-energy and high-volume turbidity currents, which preferentially flood the left of the channels (looking downchannel) as a result of Coriolis force. In the distal setting of the easternmost channel-levee complex, where thermohaline currents are directed northeastward as a result of a recirculation of water masses from the Enderby Basin, the setting and the internal structures of a wedge-shaped sediment body indicate a contourite drift rather than a channel levee. Dating of the sediments reveals that the levees in their present form started to develop with a late Miocene cooling event, which caused an expansion of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and an invigoration of thermohaline current activity.

Variability in Modified Estimators of VaR and ES

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Typing mineral deposits using their grades and tonnages in an artificial neural network

A test of the ability of a probabilistic neural network to classify deposits into types on the basis of deposit tonnage and average Cu, Mo, Ag, Au, Zn, and Pb grades is conducted. The purpose is to examine whether this type of system might serve as a basis for integrating geoscience information available in large mineral databases to classify sites by deposit type. Benefits of proper classification of many sites in large regions are relatively rapid identification of terranes permissive for deposit types and recognition of specific sites perhaps worthy of exploring further. Total tonnages and average grades of 1,137 well-explored deposits identified in published grade and tonnage models representing 13 deposit types were used to train and test the network. Tonnages were transformed by logarithms and grades by square roots to reduce effects of skewness. All values were scaled by subtracting the variable's mean and dividing by its standard deviation. Half of the deposits were selected randomly to be used in training the probabilistic neural network and the other half were used for independent testing. Tests were performed with a probabilistic neural network employing a Gaussian kernel and separate sigma weights for each class (type) and each variable (grade or tonnage). Deposit types were selected to challenge the neural network. For many types, tonnages or average grades are significantly different from other types, but individual deposits may plot in the grade and tonnage space of more than one type. Porphyry Cu, porphyry Cu-Au, and porphyry Cu-Mo types have similar tonnages and relatively small differences in grades. Redbed Cu deposits typically have tonnages that could be confused with porphyry Cu deposits, also contain Cu and, in some situations, Ag. Cyprus and kuroko massive sulfide types have about the same tonnages. Cu, Zn, Ag, and Au grades. Polymetallic vein, sedimentary exhalative Zn-Pb, and Zn-Pb skarn types contain many of the same metals. Sediment-hosted Au, Comstock Au-Ag, and low-sulfide Au-quartz vein types are principally Au deposits with differing amounts of Ag. Given the intent to test the neural network under the most difficult conditions, an overall 75% agreement between the experts and the neural network is considered excellent. Among the largestclassification errors are skarn Zn-Pb and Cyprus massive sulfide deposits classed by the neuralnetwork as kuroko massive sulfides—24 and 63% error respectively. Other large errors are the classification of 92% of porphyry Cu-Mo as porphyry Cu deposits. Most of the larger classification errors involve 25 or fewer training deposits, suggesting that some errors might be the result of small sample size. About 91% of the gold deposit types were classed properly and 98% of porphyry Cu deposits were classes as some type of porphyry Cu deposit. An experienced economic geologist would not make many of the classification errors that were made by the neural network because the geologic settings of deposits would be used to reduce errors. In a separate test, the probabilistic neural network correctly classed 93% of 336 deposits in eight deposit types when trained with presence or absence of 58 minerals and six generalized rock types. The overall success rate of the probabilistic neural network when trained on tonnage and average grades would probably be more than 90% with additional information on the presence of a few rock types.

Bayesian estimation of g-and-k distributions using MCMC

In this paper we investigate a Bayesian procedure for the estimation of a flexible generalised distribution, notably the MacGillivray adaptation of the g-and-κ distribution. This distribution, described through its inverse cdf or quantile function, generalises the standard normal through extra parameters which together describe skewness and kurtosis. The standard quantile-based methods for estimating the parameters of generalised distributions are often arbitrary and do not rely on computation of the likelihood. MCMC, however, provides a simulation-based alternative for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of these distributions or for deriving posterior estimates of the parameters through a Bayesian framework. In this paper we adopt the latter approach, The proposed methodology is illustrated through an application in which the parameter of interest is slightly skewed.

Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns-electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using empirical evidence of variations in worker performance to extend the capabilities of discrete event simulations in manufacturing

Discrete event simulation of manufacturing systems has become widely accepted as an important tool to aid the design of such systems. Often, however, it is applied by practitioners in a manner which largely ignores an important element of industry; namely, the workforce. Workers are usually represented as simple resources, often with deterministic performance values. This approach ignores the potentially large effect that human performance variation can have on a system. A long-term data collection exercise is described with the aim of quantifying the performance variation of workers in a typical automotive assembly plant. The data are presented in a histogram form which is immediately usable in simulations to improve the accuracy of design assessment. The results show levels of skewness and range which are far larger than anticipated by current researchers and practitioners in the field.