Caracterização física de argamassas de cal aérea com resíduos de cerâmica

A reabilitação e manutenção das fachadas antigas requer especial atenção sobretudo porque os materiais atualmente utilizados não correspondem, muitas vezes, aos requisitos exigidos para o efeito. No caso concreto das argamassas de reboco é possível observar com frequência erros associados à escolha dos produtos, que induzem uma degradação acelerada dos revestimentos e particularmente dos respetivos suportes, comprometendo a durabilidade dos sistemas. Era frequente, no passado, o recurso a argamassas de cal aérea e, em alguns casos, com incorporação de resíduos de cerâmica, que lhes conferiam um desempenho melhorado. Nestas circunstâncias, e tendo em conta o volume de resíduos produzidos pelas indústrias cerâmicas, geralmente depositados em aterro, o desenvolvimento de soluções de argamassas de revestimento com incorporação destes resíduos poderá apresentar-se como uma solução viável, não só do ponto de vista técnico, mas também ambiental. Este estudo apresenta a caracterização de argamassas de cal aérea ao traço 1:2 e 1:3 com resíduos de cerâmica, destinadas à reabilitação de rebocos de edifícios, no que respeita ao comportamento face à presença de água. Verifica-se que a introdução de resíduos conduziu ao aumento da resistência à difusão do vapor de água, da absorção de água por capilaridade e da porosidade aberta e à redução da capacidade de secagem. No entanto as diferenças face às argamassas de referência só de cal foram geralmente pouco significativas, pelo que particularmente as argamassas ao traço 1:2 com resíduos indiciam ser adequadas para aplicação em edifícios antigos.

Frequency of metabolic syndrome and the food intake patterns in adults living in a rural area of Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a risk factor for atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease, is related to an inadequate food intake pattern. Its incidence is increasing among Brazilian adults, including those living in rural areas. Our aim was not only to describe the frequency of MetS in adults with or without MetS but also to compare their food intake pattern as assessed by the healthy eating index (HEI) and serum albumin and C reactive protein (CRP) levels. METHODS: Men and women (n = 246) living in a small village in Brazil were included. MetS was characterized according to the adult treatment panel (ATP III) criteria. Groups were compared by chi-square, student t or Mann-Whitney tests. RESULTS: MetS was diagnosed in 15.4% of the cases. The MetS group showed higher CRP (1.8±1.2 vs. 1.0±0.9 mg/dl) and lower albumin (4.3±0.3 vs. 4.4±0.3 g/dl) serum levels compared to the control group. Additionally, the MetS group showed lower scores (median[range]) in the HEI compared to the control group (53.5[31.2-78.1] vs 58[29.7-89.5], respectively). The MetS group also had decreased scores for total fat and daily variety of food intake. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that adults with MetS displayed chronic mild inflammation and a poorer food intake pattern than the control group.

Extração automática de elementos em fotografia aérea por fotogrametria

Na cadeia de produção de cartografia digital, que se encontra implementada no IGeoE, existe a necessidade de efetuar a restituição de objetos através da vetorização 3D. Sendo este processo completamente manual, o operador identifica e adquire os objetos, em ambiente estereoscópico, segundo as regras estabelecidas nas normas de aquisição. A aquisição de construções, nomeadamente os edifícios, são dos objetos que mais recursos consomem devido à sua frequência e dificuldade de restituição. A possibilidade de simplificar esta parte do processo proporciona um beneficio substancial para toda a cadeia de produção. Pretende-se assim detetar edifícios em fotografias aéreas, extraindo a sua informação planimétrica e altimétrica, para posterior inserção num SIG. Para a obtenção da altimetria são utilizados os princípios de fotogrametria analítica através das equações de colinearidade. Este problema torna-se relevante devido ao facto de se pretender retirar informação de fotografias, que possuem bastante informação, com recurso à computação gráfica, através de técnicas de segmentação em vários níveis e fotogrametria, juntando assim duas áreas do saber. Esta solução permite automatizar um processo que é predominantemente manual, contribuindo para melhorar a cadeia de produção sem a alteração de funcionamento da mesma.

Risk factors for Leishmania chagasi infection in an endemic area in Raposa, State of Maranhão, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Infection with Leishmania chagasi is the most common clinical presentation for visceral leishmaniaisis in endemic areas. The municipality of Raposa is an endemic area in State of Maranhão, Brazil, and have had registration cases of visceral leishmaniasis disease. For this reason, a cross- sectional study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors for infection with L. chagasi detected by Montenegro skin test. METHODS: The sample comprised 96% of the inhabitants of the villages of Maresia, Pantoja, and Marisol located in the municipality of Raposa, corresponding to 1,359 subjects. Data were collected using a questionnaire. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were applied to evaluate the association between the variables studied and infection of L. chagasi. RESULTS: The variables associated with infection upon nonadjusted analysis were a straw roof, mud walls, floors of beaten earth, presence of sand flies inside or outside of the dwelling, and bathing outdoors. Adjusted analysis showed that the presence of sand flies inside/outside the dwelling was a risk factor, and age younger than 10 years was a protective factor against asymptomatic infection. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the extent to which precarious living conditions of the population strengthen the epidemiological chain of visceral leishmaniasis.

Characterization of Leishmania infantum species in dogs from the urban area of Cuiabá, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis presents urban behavior in some Brazilian cities, with domestic dogs as the main infection source. In Cuiabá, MT, canine visceral leishmaniasis was diagnosed and characterized as recommended by the Ministry of Health. METHODS: Biological samples from suspected canine carriers were analyzed by the isoenzyme electrophoresis technique. The 6PGDH enzyme and reference strain IOC/L0566 (MHOM/BR/1975/M2903) of Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum was used as one of the controls. RESULTS: Electrophoresis analysis revealed that the canine isolates belonged to the species L. (L.) infantum. CONCLUSIONS: The authors emphasize the importance of species characterization, particularly in areas of mixed infection like Cuiabá.

Phlebotomine sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in São Vicente Férrer, a sympatric area to cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: In the last decades, a considerable geographic expansion of the leishmaniases in all regions of Brazil has been observed. The present study was carried out to identify the composition of the phlebotomine sandfly fauna and verify the seasonal variation of the main species after environmental changes occurred in São Vicente Férrer Municipality, State of Pernambuco, Brazil. METHODS: Captures were carried out during four consecutive nights of each month using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention light traps from September 2009 to September 2010. The correlation between the number of phlebotomine sandflies captured and climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) was evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 13,872 specimens belonging to 20 species were captured, of which, 6,247 (45%) were females, and 7,625 (55%) were males. Lutzomyia migonei was the most abundant species with 9,964 (71.8%) specimens, being predominant in the intradomicile and peridomicile areas with 108 (86.4%) and 9,746 (97%), respectively. In the forest remnants, Lutzomyia complexa 2,395 (65%) and Lutzomyia sordellii 770 (20.8%) predominated. The correlation analysis between the total number of sandflies captured and climatic factors did not show a significant influence on population density. CONCLUSIONS: The high abundance of Lutzomyia migonei and Lutzomyia complexa indicates the possibility of new cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL).

Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae) in the region of Saquarema: potential area of visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Lutzomyia longipalpis is the main vector of Leishmania infantum chagasi in the Americas. METHODS: Phlebotomine captures were conducted during 2008 and 2009 in a rural area endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis located in the municipality of Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro. RESULTS: Among other species captured, we observed the presence of Lutzomyia longipalpis. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report of the occurrence of Lutzomyia longipalpis in this region, demonstrating the potential risk of visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the coastal area of the State of Rio de Janeiro. Therefore, active vigilance by all municipalities in the area is necessary.

Cat infected by a variant of bat rabies virus in a 29-year disease-free urban area of southern Brazil

INTRODUCTION: After 29 years, rabies was detected in a cat in Curitiba, southern Brazil. METHODS: The fluorescent antibody test (FAT) and mouse inoculation test (MIT) were performed on central nervous system (CNS) samples. RESULTS: Direct immunofluorescence was negative, but the biological test was positive and rabies virus was characterized as variant 4 (from Tadarida brasiliensis). CONCLUSIONS: Reappearance of rabies in domestic animals warns of sylvatic-aerial risk of infection and the necessity of monitoring bats in historically rabies-free areas.

Contributo da curva de débito-volume na detecção da obstrução da via aérea central

RESUMO: Introdução: A obstrução da via aérea central (OVAC) refere-se a um processo patológico que conduz a limitação do fluxo de ar ao nível do espaço glótico e subglótico, traqueia e brônquios principais. O seu correcto diagnóstico e tratamento constituem um território de interesse e preocupação para os profissionais de saúde, e requerem um profundo conhecimento da sua etiologia, fisiologia, diagnóstico e opções terapêuticas dado o potencial em originar significativa morbilidade e mortalidade. A avaliação da OVAC abrange múltiplas vertentes, entre as quais se salienta o componente clínico (sinais e sintomas), a repercussão fisiopatológica (função respiratória) e o estudo imagiológico (TC do tórax e broncoscopia). A compilação destes dados associada à etiologia, constituem factores importantes para estabelecer o prognóstico, determinar a necessidade de tratamento ou delinear uma futura intervenção terapêutica. A broncoscopia é o Gold Standard de avaliação desta condição, mas desde há cerca de 40 anos a curva de débito-volume constitui uma ferramenta não invasiva de detecção de OVAC. Apesar deste método ser utilizado até os nossos dias, poucos têm sido os estudos com o objectivo de verificar a sensibilidade e especificidade da curva de débito-volume na detecção de OVAC, bem como averiguar a relação entre as alterações morfológicas e quantitativas da mesma com a localização, o tipo e o grau da obstrução. Material e Métodos: Entre 1 de Novembro de 2009 e 30 de Abril de 2010, os doentes com indicação para a realização de broncoscopia diagnóstica ou terapêutica na Unidade de Técnicas Invasivas Pneumológicas (UTIP) do Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte – Hospital Pulido Valente (CHLN – HPV) foram seleccionados de forma consecutiva de acordo com os critérios de inclusão e exclusão. As avaliações (broncoscopia, curva de débito-volume e avaliação da dispneia) realizaram-se com um intervalo de tempo máximo de sete dias. A broncoscopia flexível foi realizada segundo as normas da British Thoracic Society e as curvas de débito-volume segundo as normas da ATS/ERS TaskForce 2005. Para a avaliação da dispneia recorreu-se à escala de dispneia MRC (Medical Research Council). Um painel de peritos realizou a avaliação da morfologia da curva de débito-volume (sugestiva ou não de OVAC) e um elemento independente a verificação dos critérios quantitativos e morfológicos (variáveis intra e extratorácica e fixa) da curva. O estudo foi aprovado pela Comissão de Ética para a Saúde do CHLN e todos os doentes assinaram um consentimento informado de participação. Resultados: Estudaram-se 82 doentes, 36 (44%) dos quais com OVAC. A predominância foi do género masculino, em relação ao feminino. A sensibilidade e especificidade dos critérios quantitativos da curva de débito-volume na detecção de OVAC foi de 91.3% e 88.9% respectivamente. Quando se utilizaram os critérios morfológicos da curva de débito-volume os valores foram de 93.5% e 30.6%. A agregação dos critérios morfológicos e quantitativos permitiu alcançar uma sensibilidade de 95.7% e especificidade de 86.1%. Nesta amostra, o critério quantitativo com maior ocorrência foi o FEF50/FIF50≥1 (83% dos doentes com OVAC). Este mostrou relacionar-se com todas as localizações de obstrução excepto o terço médio da traqueia. Mostrou, ainda, ter uma relação forte e positiva com o grau e tipo de obstrução (intra e extraluminal). O segundo foi o FEV1/PEF≥8, presente em 36% dos casos de OVAC. Relacionou-se com as obstruções no terço inferior da traqueia e brônquio principal direito (BPD). Também apresentou relação forte e positiva com o grau de obstrução e com os tipos de obstrução anteriormente descritos. Quanto à sintomatologia foi possível associar o grau de obstrução com o de dispneia e a presença de estridor com o grau e localização da obstrução na traqueia. Conclusões: Os resultados deste estudo demonstram que os critérios quantitativos da curva de débito-volume têm elevada sensibilidade e especificidade na detecção de OVAC. O critério FEV50/FIF50≥1 tem um bom poder discriminativo na detecção dessa condição, tendo sido relacionado com a localização, o grau e o tipo de obstrução. O critério FEV1/PEF≥8, embora com menor poder discriminativo, também se relaciona com o grau, a localização e o tipo de obstrução. A morfologia da curva tem uma boa sensibilidade mas baixa especificidade na detecção de OVAC, mas a agregação entre os critérios morfológicos e quantitativos aumenta a sensibilidade e especificidade. A dispneia e o estridor foram relacionados com o grau de obstrução e o último com a localização ao nível da traqueia.-------------ABSTRACT: Introduction: Central airway obstruction (CAO) refers to a pathological process that leads to restriction of airflow at the level of the glottis and subglottis, trachea and main bronchi. It’s proper diagnosis and treatment is an area of interest and concern to health professionals, and requires a deep knowledge of its etiology, physiology, diagnosis and treatment options, concerning the potential to cause significant morbidity and mortality. The evaluation of CAO covers multiple aspects: the clinical component (signs and symptoms), the pathophysiological effect (lung function) and the imaging study (bronchoscopy and chest CT). The compilation of this data associated with the etiology, are important for establishing prognosis, determine the need for treatment or outline a future therapeutic intervention. Bronchoscopy is the gold standard for evaluating this condition, but for the last 40 years the flow-volume loop has been used as a noninvasive tool for detecting CAO. Although this method is still in use, only few studies were made in order to verify its sensitivity and specificity in detecting CAO, and investigate the relation between morphological and quantitative changes of the curve to location, type and degree of obstruction. Methods: Between 1st November 2009 and 30th April 2010, patients with indication to perform diagnostic or therapeutic bronchoscopy in Interventional Pulmonology Unit - Hospital Pulido Valente (CHLN - HPV), were selected consecutively according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. All assessments (bronchoscopy, flow-volume loop and dyspnea) were carried out within a period of seven days. The flexible bronchoscopy was performed according to the standards of the British Thoracic Society and the flow-volume loops in accordance with the standards of the ATS / ERS Taskforce 2005. For the evaluation of dyspnea was used to MRC dyspnea scale (Medical Research Council). A panel of experts evaluated the morphology of flow-volume loop (suggestive or non-suggestive of CAO) and an independent element established the quantitative criteria and morphological (intra and extrathoracic variables and fixed) of the curve. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee for Health CHLN and all the patients signed an informed consent to participate. Results: We’ve studied 82 patients, 36 (44%) of those with CAO. The majority of the patients were males, compared to females. The sensitivity and specificity of the quantitative criteria of the flow-volume curve in detecting CAO was 91.3% and 88.9% respectively. When we used the morphological criteria of flow-volume loop these values were 93.5% and 30.6%. The combination of quantitative and morphological criteria produced values of 95.7% sensitivity and 86.1% specificity. FEF50/FIF50≥1 was the most representative quantitative criterion (83% of patients with CAO) and it was correlated with all sites of obstruction except in the middle third of the trachea. It has shown a strong and positive association with the degree and type of obstruction (intra and extraluminal). The second was the FEV1/PEF ≥ 8, present in 36% of cases of CAO. It could be correlated with the obstruction in the lower third of the trachea and right main bronchus. It also showed a strong positive relation with the degree and types of obstruction described above. Regarding symptoms, we found a link between the degree of obstruction and dyspnea. The presence of stridor was correlated with the location and the degree of obstruction in the trachea. Conclusion: The results of this study demonstrate that the quantitative criteria of the flow-volume loop have a high sensitivity and specificity in detecting CAO. The criterion FEV50/FIF50 ≥ 1 has a good discriminative power to detect this condition and was related to the location, degree and type of obstruction. The criterion FEV1/PEF ≥ 8, although with a weaker discriminative power, also relates to the degree, location and type of obstruction. The morphology of the curve has a good sensitivity but low specificity in detecting CAO although the combination between the morphological and quantitative criteria increases sensitivity and specificity. Dyspnea and stridor were related to the degree of obstruction and the last one with its location in the trachea.

Sandfly fauna in an area endemic for visceral leishmaniasis in Aracaju, State of Sergipe, Northeast Brazil

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, visceral leishmaniasis, a major public health problem, has been spreading from the rural to urban areas in many areas of Brazil, including Aracaju, the capital of the State of Sergipe. However, there are no studies of the sandfly fauna in this municipality or its variation over the year. METHODS: Phlebotomine sandflies were collected from a rural area of Aracaju from September 2007 to July 2009. Modified CDC ultra-violet (UV) light traps were used to evaluate sandfly monthly distribution and their presence in the domestic and peridomestic environments. RESULTS: The most abundant species was Lutzomyia longipalpis (90.4%) followed by Evandromyia lenti (9.6%). A chicken shed trap site had the highest proportion of L. longipalpis (51.1%) and large numbers of L. longipalpis were also collected in the houses closest to the chicken shed. There was a positive correlation between monthly rainfall and L. longipalpis abundance. CONCLUSIONS: Lutzomyia longipalpis is the most abundant species and is probably the main vector of the visceral leishmaniasis agent in the rural area of Aracaju. An increase in L. longipalpis frequency was observed during the rainy season. The peridomicile-intradomicile observations corroborate the importance of chicken sheds for the presence of L. longipalpis in the peridomestic environment. The great numbers of L. longipalpis inside the houses confirm the endophilic behaviour of this species and the possibility of visceral transmission in the intradomicile.

One-year cardiac morphological and functional evolution following permanent pacemaker implantation in right ventricular septal position in chagasic patients

INTRODUCTION: The septal position is an alternative site for cardiac pacing (CP) that is potentially less harmful to cardiac function. METHODS: Patients with Chagas disease without heart failure submitted to permanent pacemaker (PP) implantation at the Clinics Hospital of the Triângulo Mineiro Federal University (UFTM), were selected from February 2009 to February 2010. The parameters analyzed were ventricular remodeling, the degree of electromechanical dyssynchrony (DEM), exercise time and VO2 max during exercise testing (ET) and functional class (NYHA). Echocardiography was performed 24 to 48h following implantation and after one year follow-up. The patients were submitted to ET one month postprocedure and at the end of one year. RESULTS: Thirty patients were included. Patient mean age was 59±13 years-old. Indication for PP implantation was complete atrioventricular (AV) block in 22 (73.3%) patients and 2nd degree AV block in the other eight (26.7%). All patients were in NYHA I and no changes occurred in the ET parameters. No variations were detected in echocardiographic remodeling measurements. Intraventricular dyssynchrony was observed in 46.6% of cases and interventricular dyssynchrony in 33.3% of patients after one year. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this work suggest that there is not significant morphological and functional cardiac change following pacemaker implantation in septal position in chagasic patients with normal left ventricular function after one year follow-up. Thus, patients may remain asymptomatic, presenting maintenance of functional capacity and no left ventricular remodeling.

Ecological aspects of the sandfly fauna (Diptera, Psychodidae) in an American cutaneous leishmaniasis endemic area under the influence of hydroelectric plants in Paranapanema river, State of Paraná, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: An epidemiological study was undertaken to identify determinant factors in the occurrence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in areas under the influence of hydroelectric plants in Paranapanema river, State of Paraná, Brazil. The ecological aspects of the phlebotomine fauna were investigated. METHODS: Sandflies were sampled with automatic light traps from February 2004 to June 2006 at 25 sites in the urban and rural areas of Itambaracá, and in Porto Almeida and São Joaquim do Pontal. RESULTS: A total of 3,187 sandflies of 15 species were captured. Nyssomyia neivai predominated (34.4%), followed by Pintomyia pessoai (32.6%), Migonemyia migonei (11.6%), Nyssomyia whitmani (8.8%), and Pintomyia fischeri (2.7%), all implicated in the transmission of Leishmania. Males predominated for Ny. neivai, and females for the other vector species, with significant statistical differences (p < 0.001). Nyssomyia neivai, Pi. pessoai, Ny. whitmani, Brumptomyia brumpti, Mg. migonei, and Pi. fischeri presented the highest values for the Standardized Species Abundance Index (SSAI). The highest frequencies and diversities were found in the preserved forest in Porto Almeida, followed by forests with degradation in São Joaquim do Pontal and Vila Rural. CONCLUSIONS: Sandflies were captured in all localities, with the five vectors predominating. Ny. neivai had its highest frequencies in nearby peridomestic environments and Pi. pessoai in areas of preserved forests. The highest SSAI values of Ny. neivai and Pi. pessoai reflect their wider dispersion and higher frequencies compared with other species, which seems to indicate that these two species may be transmitting leishmaniasis in the area.

Increased detection of schistosomiasis with Kato-Katz and SWAP-IgG-ELISA in a Northeastern Brazil low-intensity transmission area

INTRODUCTION: The laboratory diagnosis of schistosomiasis is based mainly on the detection of parasite eggs in stool samples through the Kato-Katz (KK) technique, reading one slide by test. However, a widely known limitation of parasitological methods is reduced sensitivity, particularly in low endemic areas. METHODS: To increase sensitivity, we conducted further slide readings from the same stool sample using the parasitological method associated with a serological test. We used the KK method (three slides) and the IgG anti-Schistosoma mansoni-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique to diagnose schistosomiasis in low endemic areas in the Brazilian State of Ceará. Fecal samples and sera from 250 individuals were analyzed. RESULTS: Sixteen percent and 47.2% of samples were positive in parasitological tests and serological tests, respectively. Parasitological methods showed that 32 (80%) individuals tested positive on the first slide, 6 (15%) on the second slide, and 2 (5%) on the third. The performance of the ELISA test in the diagnosis, using the KK method as diagnostic reference, showed a negative predictive value of 100%, with specificity and positive predictive values of 62.8% and 33.9%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the increase from one to three slides analyzed per sample using the KK technique was shown to be a useful procedure for increasing the diagnostic sensitivity of this technique.

Triatomines in dwellings and outbuildings in an endemic area of Chagas disease in northeastern Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The present study identified the triatomines collected in intra and peri-domestic environments, observed the occurrence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in triatomines and correlated this information with housing conditions and the fauna associated with the rural areas of the City of Itabaianinha, located in the State of Sergipe, Brazil. METHODS: Quarterly visits were conducted between March 2009 and March 2010, and the homes to be visited for the active search of insects were determined by random selection. In each housing unit, the insects were collected by a manual search with a metal clip and flashlight to inspect openings and cavities, with a collection time of one hour/home/individual. The Pirisa® dislodge chemical was used to force the insects to leave their ecotopes. Analysis of the intestinal contents of triatomines was performed in the laboratory to establish the presence of Trypanosomatidae. RESULTS: Of the 103 dwellings surveyed, 17.5% were infested with Panstrongylus megistus. The village of Mutuca exhibited the highest infestation rate (38.1%). All the villages with relevant infestation rates were situated in the northern area of the city. The highest percentage of vector infection was found in the village of Água Boa (56.5%). The rural dwellings were found to be primarily brick or wooden house with or without roughcast or plastered walls, and the outbuilding most frequently associated with triatomines was the chicken run. CONCLUSIONS: These results emphasise the need for broader vector control and surveillance and for educational campaigns in the context of the Chagas Disease Control Program.

Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.