Analytic hierarchy process analyses risk of operating cross-country petroleum pipelines in India

The existing method of pipeline health monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, is both time-wasting and expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been presented. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests an efficient design and operation philosophy, construction methodology, and logical insurance plans. The risk-based model uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to identify the factors that influence failure on specific segments and to analyze their effects by determining probability of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis. From this, the effect of a failure caused by each risk factor can be established in terms of cost, and the cumulative effect of failure is determined through probability analysis. The technique does not totally eliminate subjectivity, but it is an improvement over the existing inspection method.

Risk-based model aids selection of pipeline inspection, maintenance strategies

The existing method of pipeline monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, wastes time and is expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been developed. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests an efficient design and operation philosophy, construction method and logical insurance plans.The risk-based model uses analytic hierarchy process, a multiple attribute decision-making technique, to identify factors that influence failure on specific segments and analyze their effects by determining the probabilities of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis, which establishes the effect of a failure in terms of cost caused by each risk factor and determines the cumulative effect of failure through probability analysis.

Common variants of the TCF7L2 gene are associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in a UK-resident South Asian population

Background - Recent studies have implicated variants of the transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) gene in genetic susceptibility to type 2 diabetes mellitus in several different populations. The aim of this study was to determine whether variants of this gene are also risk factors for type 2 diabetes development in a UK-resident South Asian cohort of Punjabi ancestry. Methods - We genotyped four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of TCF7L2 (rs7901695, rs7903146, rs11196205 and rs12255372) in 831 subjects with diabetes and 437 control subjects. Results - The minor allele of each variant was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes; the greatest risk of developing the disease was conferred by rs7903146, with an allelic odds ratio (OR) of 1.31 (95% CI: 1.11 – 1.56, p = 1.96 × 10-3). For each variant, disease risk associated with homozygosity for the minor allele was greater than that for heterozygotes, with the exception of rs12255372. To determine the effect on the observed associations of including young control subjects in our data set, we reanalysed the data using subsets of the control group defined by different minimum age thresholds. Increasing the minimum age of our control subjects resulted in a corresponding increase in OR for all variants of the gene (p ≤ 1.04 × 10-7). Conclusion - Our results support recent findings that TCF7L2 is an important genetic risk factor for the development of type 2 diabetes in multiple ethnic groups.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Dividend increases and initiations and default risk in equity returns

This study extends the Grullon, Michaely, and Swaminathan (2002) analysis by incorporating default risk. Using data for firms that either increased or initiated cash dividend payments during the 23-year period 1986-2008, we find reduction in default risk. This reduction is shown to be a priced risk factor beyond the Fama and French (1993) risk measures, and it explains the dividend payment decision and the positive market reaction around dividend increases and initiations. Further analysis reveals that the reduction in default risk is a significant factor in explaining the 3-year excess returns following dividend increases and initiations. © Copyright Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington 2011.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Genetic markers, birth characteristics, and childhood leukemia risk

The cause for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) remains unknown, but male gender is a risk factor, and among ethnicities, Hispanics have the highest risk. In this dissertation, we explored correlations among genetic polymorphisms, birth characteristics, and the risk of childhood ALL in a multi-ethnic sample in 161 cases and 231 controls recruited contemporaneously (2007-2012) in Houston, TX. We first examined three lymphoma risk markers, since lymphoma and ALL both stem from lymphoid cells. Of these, rs2395185 showed a risk association in non-Hispanic White males (OR=2.8, P=0.02; P interaction=0.03 for gender), but not in Hispanics. We verified previously known risk associations to validate the case-control sample. Mutations of HFE (C282Y, H63D) were genotyped to test whether iron-regulatory gene (IRG) variants known to elevate iron levels increase childhood ALL risk. Being positive for either polymorphism yielded only a modestly elevated OR in males, which increased to 2.96 (P=0.01) in the presence of a particular transferrin receptor (TFRC) genotype for rs3817672 (Pinteraction=0.04). SNP rs3817672 itself showed an ethnicity-specific association (P interaction=0.02 for ethnicity). We then examined additional IRG SNPs (rs422982, rs855791, rs733655), which showed risk associations in males (ORs=1.52 to 2.60). A polygenic model based on the number of polymorphic alleles in five IRG SNPs revealed a linear increase in risk (OR=2.00 per incremental change; P=0.002). Having three or more alleles compared with none was associated with increased risk in males (OR=4.12; P=0.004). Significant risk associations with childhood ALL was found with birth length (OR=1.18 per inch, P=0.04), high birth weight (>4,000g) (OR=1.93, P=0.01), and with gestational age (OR=1.10 per week, P=0.04). We observed a negative correlation between HFE SNP rs9366637 and gestational age (P=0.005), again, stronger in males ( P=0.001) and interacting with TFRC (P interaction=0.05). Our results showed that (i) ALL risk markers do not show universal associations across ethnicities or between genders, (ii) IRG SNPs modify ALL risk presumably by their effects on iron levels, (iii) a negative correlation between an HFE SNP and gestational age exists, which implicates an iron-related mechanism. The results suggest that currently unregulated supplemental iron intake may have implications on childhood ALL development.

Risk factors of European non-listed real estate fund returns

Acknowledgements: We thank INREV (the European Association for Investors in Non-Listed Real Estate Vehicles) for funding a previous version of this research and providing non-listed fund data as well as very useful comments. This version is published as Delfim, J.-C. and Hoesli, M., 2015, Risk Factor Analysis of European Non-Listed Real Estate Funds, Amsterdam: INREV. The usual disclaimer applies. We also thank three anonymous reviewers and the guest editor, Graeme Newell, for insightful remarks.

Simplified Predictive Instrument to Rule Out Acute Coronary Syndromes in a High-Risk Population.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether diagnostic protocols based on cardiac markers to identify low-risk chest pain patients suitable for early release from the emergency department can be applied to patients older than 65 years or with traditional cardiac risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single-center retrospective study of 231 consecutive patients with high-risk factor burden in which a first cardiac troponin (cTn) level was measured in the emergency department and a second cTn sample was drawn 4 to 14 hours later, we compared the performance of a modified 2-Hour Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients with Chest Pain Using Contemporary Troponins as the Only Biomarker (ADAPT) rule to a new risk classification scheme that identifies patients as low risk if they have no known coronary artery disease, a nonischemic electrocardiogram, and 2 cTn levels below the assay's limit of detection. Demographic and outcome data were abstracted through chart review. The median age of our population was 64 years, and 75% had Thrombosis In Myocardial Infarction risk score ≥2. Using our risk classification rule, 53 (23%) patients were low risk with a negative predictive value for 30-day cardiac events of 98%. Applying a modified ADAPT rule to our cohort, 18 (8%) patients were identified as low risk with a negative predictive value of 100%. In a sensitivity analysis, the negative predictive value of our risk algorithm did not change when we relied only on undetectable baseline cTn and eliminated the second cTn assessment. CONCLUSIONS: If confirmed in prospective studies, this less-restrictive risk classification strategy could be used to safely identify chest pain patients with more traditional cardiac risk factors for early emergency department release.

Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.

Risk factors for macro- and microvascular complications among older adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes: findings from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing

Objective. To explore risk factors for macro- and microvascular complications in a nationally representative sample of adults aged 50 years and over with type 2 diabetes in Ireland. Methods. Data from the first wave of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) (2009–2011) was used in cross-sectional analysis. The presence of doctor diagnosis of diabetes, risk factors, and macro and microvascular complications were determined by self-report. Gender-specific differences in risk factor prevalence were assessed with the chi-squared test. Binomial regression analysis was conducted to explore independent associations between established risk factors and diabetes-related complications. Results. Among 8175 respondents, 655 were classified as having type 2 diabetes. Older age, being male, a history of smoking, a lower level of physical activity, and a diagnosis of high cholesterol were independent predictors of macrovascular complications. Diabetes diagnosis of 10 or more years, a history of smoking, and a diagnosis of hypertension were associated with an increased risk of microvascular complications. Older age, third-level education, and a high level of physical activity were protective factors (

Bullying Involvement and Adolescent Substance Use: A Study of Multilevel Risk and Protective Factors

Bullying, frequent drunkenness, and frequent cannabis use are significant health-risk behaviours among youth. While many studies have demonstrated that bullying involvement may initiate a developmental pathway to both types of frequent substance use, there is a limited understanding of the connection between these behaviours. The presence of risk and protective factors within youths’ relationships and within their neighbourhoods may alter the associations between bullying involvement and both types of frequent substance use. A systemic approach is needed to assess the complex, social environments in which youth are embedded. The current thesis consists of two studies that examined the associations between bullying and both types of frequent substance use within the context of youths’ social environments. In Study 1, multilevel modeling was used to examine the associations between bullying and frequent substance use within the context of individual and neighbourhood risk factors. Our results indicated that the risk factors associated with both frequent drunkenness and frequent cannabis use exist at both levels, with neighbourhoods altering the association of individual risk factors. Moreover, bullying was a unique risk factor associated with both types of frequent substance use, whereas indirect associations were observed for victimization. Study 2 used a similar methodology to examine the association between bullying and both types of frequent substance use within the context of individual and neighbourhood protective factors. Once again, our results indicated that the protective factors associated with both types of frequent substance use exist at multiple levels, and that neighbourhoods altered the association of individual protective factors. Additionally, positive relationship characteristics interacted with the link between bullying and both types of frequent substance use. Together, these findings clarify the nature of the bullying-substance use link and emphasize the need to study adolescent development in context.

Lifestyle Risk Factors for Serrated Colorectal Polyps: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background & Aims: Certain subsets of colorectal serrated polyps (SP) have malignant potential. Weperformed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the association between modifiablelifestyle factors and risk for SPs. 
Methods: We conducted a systematic search of Medline, Embase, and Web of Science, forobservational or interventional studies that contained the terms risk or risk factor, and serrated orhyperplastic, and polyps or adenomas, and colorectal (or synonymous terms), published by March2016. Titles and abstracts of identified articles were independently reviewed by at least 2 reviewers.Adjusted relative risks (RR) and 95% CIs were combined using random effects meta-analyses toassess the risk of SP, when possible. 
Results: We identified 43 studies of SP risk associated with 7 different lifestyle factors: smoking,alcohol, body fatness, diet, physical activity, medication and/or hormone replacement therapy.When we compared the highest and lowest categories of exposure, factors we found to significantlyincrease risk for SP included tobacco smoking (RR, 2.47; 95% CI, 2.12–2.87), alcohol intake (RR, 1.33;95% CI, 1.17–1.52), body mass index (RR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.22–1.61), and high intake of fat or meat.Direct associations for smoking and alcohol, but not body fat, tended to be stronger for sessileserrated adenomas/polyps than hyperplastic polyps. In contrast, factors we found to significantlydecrease risks for SP included use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65–0.92) or aspirin (RR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.67–0.99), as well as high intake of folate, calcium, or fiber. Nosignificant associations were detected between SP risk and physical activity or hormone replacementtherapy. 
Conclusions: Several lifestyle factors, most notably smoking and alcohol, are associated with SP risk.These findings enhance our understanding of mechanisms of SP development and indicate that riskof serrated pathway colorectal neoplasms could be reduced with lifestyle changes.

The Relationship of Diet Quality and Blood Serum Lipid Levels in a Population at High Risk for Diabetes: The Strong Heart Family Study

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08