The price of risk in construction projects: contingency approximation model (CAM)

Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward.

Entropic risk analysis by a high level decision support system (e-FDSS) for construction SMEs

The method of entropy has been useful in evaluating inconsistency on human judgments. This paper illustrates an entropy-based decision support system called e-FDSS to the solution of multicriterion risk and decision analysis in projects of construction small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It is optimized and solved by fuzzy logic, entropy, and genetic algorithms. A case study demonstrated the use of entropy in e-FDSS on analyzing multiple risk criteria in the predevelopment stage of SME projects. Survey data studying the degree of impact of selected project risk criteria on different projects were input into the system in order to evaluate the preidentified project risks in an impartial environment. Without taking into account the amount of uncertainty embedded in the evaluation process; the results showed that all decision vectors are indeed full of bias and the deviations of decisions are finally quantified providing a more objective decision and risk assessment profile to the stakeholders of projects in order to search and screen the most profitable projects.

The SAFE FOODS framework for improved risk analysis of foods

Three main changes to current risk analysis processes are proposed to improve their transparency, openness, and accountability. First, the addition of a formal framing stage would allow interested parties, experts and officials to work together as needed to gain an initial shared understanding of the issue, the objectives of regulatory action, and alternative risk management measures. Second, the scope of the risk assessment is expanded to include the assessment of health and environmental benefits as well as risks, and the explicit consideration of economic- and social-impacts of risk management action and their distribution. Moreover approaches were developed for deriving improved information from genomic, proteomic and metabolomic profiling methods and for probabilistic modelling of health impacts for risk assessment purposes. Third, in an added evaluation stage, interested parties, experts, and officials may compare and weigh the risks, costs, and benefits and their distribution. As part of a set of recommendations on risk communication, we propose that reports on each stage should be made public.

Evaluation of the time resolved fluorescence immunoassay (TRFIA) for the detection of varicella zoster virus (VZV) antibodies following vaccination of healthcare workers

Determination of varicella zoster virus (VZV) immunity in healthcare workers without a history of chickenpox is important for identifying those in need of vOka vaccination. Post immunisation, healthcare workers in the UK who work with high risk patients are tested for seroconversion. To assess the performance of the time-resolved fluorescence immunoassay (TRFIA) for the detection of antibody in vaccinated as well as unvaccinated individuals, a cut-off was first calculated. VZV-IgG specific avidity and titres six weeks after the first dose of vaccine were used to identify subjects with pre-existing immunity among a cohort of 110 healthcare workers. Those with high avidity (≥60%) were considered to have previous immunity to VZV and those with low or equivocal avidity (<60%) were considered naive. The former had antibody levels ≥400mIU/mL and latter had levels <400mIU/mL. Comparison of the baseline values of the naive and immune groups allowed the estimation of a TRFIA cut-off value of >130mIU/mL which best discriminated between the two groups and this was confirmed by ROC analysis. Using this value, the sensitivity and specificity of TRFIA cut-off were 90% (95% CI 79-96), and 78% (95% CI 61-90) respectively in this population. A subset of samples tested by the gold standard Fluorescence Antibody to Membrane Antigen (FAMA) test showed 84% (54/64) agreement with TRFIA.

The effect of asymmetries on stock index return value-at-risk estimates

It is widely accepted that equity return volatility increases more following negative shocks rather than positive shocks. However, much of value-at-risk (VaR) analysis relies on the assumption that returns are normally distributed (a symmetric distribution). This article considers the effect of asymmetries on the evaluation and accuracy of VaR by comparing estimates based on various models.

Volatility forecasting for risk management

Recent research has suggested that forecast evaluation on the basis of standard statistical loss functions could prefer models which are sub-optimal when used in a practical setting. This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily volatility of several key UK financial time series. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various linear and GARCH-type models of volatility are compared with forecasts derived from a multivariate approach. The forecasts are evaluated using traditional metrics, such as mean squared error, and also by how adequately they perform in a modern risk management setting. We find that the relative accuracies of the various methods are highly sensitive to the measure used to evaluate them. Such results have implications for any econometric time series forecasts which are subsequently employed in financial decisionmaking.

Description and process evaluation of pharmacists’ interventions in a pharmacist-led information technology-enabled multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial for reducing medication errors in general practice (PINCER trial)

Objective To undertake a process evaluation of pharmacists' recommendations arising in the context of a complex IT-enabled pharmacist-delivered randomised controlled trial (PINCER trial) to reduce the risk of hazardous medicines management in general practices. Methods PINCER pharmacists manually recorded patients’ demographics, details of interventions recommended, actions undertaken by practice staff and time taken to manage individual cases of hazardous medicines management. Data were coded and double entered into SPSS v15, and then summarised using percentages for categorical data (with 95% CI) and, as appropriate, means (SD) or medians (IQR) for continuous data. Key findings Pharmacists spent a median of 20 minutes (IQR 10, 30) reviewing medical records, recommending interventions and completing actions in each case of hazardous medicines management. Pharmacists judged 72% (95%CI 70, 74) (1463/2026) of cases of hazardous medicines management to be clinically relevant. Pharmacists recommended 2105 interventions in 74% (95%CI 73, 76) (1516/2038) of cases and 1685 actions were taken in 61% (95%CI 59, 63) (1246/2038) of cases; 66% (95%CI 64, 68) (1383/2105) of interventions recommended by pharmacists were completed and 5% (95%CI 4, 6) (104/2105) of recommendations were accepted by general practitioners (GPs), but not completed at the end of the pharmacists’ placement; the remaining recommendations were rejected or considered not relevant by GPs. Conclusions The outcome measures were used to target pharmacist activity in general practice towards patients at risk from hazardous medicines management. Recommendations from trained PINCER pharmacists were found to be broadly acceptable to GPs and led to ameliorative action in the majority of cases. It seems likely that the approach used by the PINCER pharmacists could be employed by other practice pharmacists following appropriate training.

A low-cost wireless temperature sensor: evaluation for use in environmental applications

With a wide range of applications benefiting from dense network air temperature observations but with limitations of costs, existing siting guidelines and risk of damage to sensors, new methods are required to gain a high resolution understanding of the spatio-temporal patterns of urban meteorological phenomena such as the urban heat island or precision farming needs. With the launch of a new generation of low cost sensors it is possible to deploy a network to monitor air temperature at finer spatial resolutions. Here we investigate the Aginova Sentinel Micro (ASM) sensor with a bespoke radiation shield (together < US$150) which can provide secure near-real-time air temperature data to a server utilising existing (or user deployed) Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) networks. This makes it ideally suited for deployment where wireless communications readily exist, notably urban areas. Assessment of the performance of the ASM relative to traceable standards in a water bath and atmospheric chamber show it to have good measurement accuracy with mean errors < ± 0.22 °C between -25 and 30 °C, with a time constant in ambient air of 110 ± 15 s. Subsequent field tests of it within the bespoke shield also had excellent performance (root-mean-square error = 0.13 °C) over a range of meteorological conditions relative to a traceable operational UK Met Office platinum resistance thermometer. These results indicate that the ASM and bespoke shield are more than fit-for-purpose for dense network deployment in urban areas at relatively low cost compared to existing observation techniques.

Equicrestal and Subcrestal Dental Implants: A Histologic and Histomorphometric Evaluation of Nine Retrieved Human Implants

Background: Stability of pen-implant crestal bone plays a relevant role relative to the presence or absence of interdental papilla. Several factors can contribute to the crestal bone resorption observed around two-piece implants, such as the presence of a microgap at the level of the implant abutment junction, the type of connection between implant and prosthetic components, the implant positioning relative to the alveolar crest, and the interimplant distance. Subcrestal positioning of dental implants has been proposed to decrease the risk of exposure of the metal of the top of the implant or of the abutment margin, and to get enough space in a vertical dimension to create a harmoniously esthetic emergence profile. Methods: The present retrospective histologic study was performed to evaluate dental implants retrieved from human jaws that had been inserted in an equicrestal or subcrestal position. A total of nine implants were evaluated: five of these had been inserted in an equicrestal position, whereas the other four had been positioned subcrestally (1 to 3 mm). Results: In all subcrestally placed implants, preexisting and newly formed bone was found over the implant shoulder. In the equicrestal implants, crestal bone resorption (0.5 to 1.5 mm) was present around all implants. Conclusion: The subcrestal position of the implants resulted in bone located above the implant shoulder. J Periodontol 2011;82:708-715.

A Comparative Study of the Frequency of Antibody and Titers Against Human Herpesvirus 8 Latent and Lytic Antigens in ""At-Risk"" Individuals and Among Patients With Kaposi`s Sarcoma

Differences in the prevalence of human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) and Kaposi`s sarcoma (KS) have been described, depending on the study population and their geographic origin. A cross-sectional study aimed at detecting the frequency and titers of antibodies against HHV-8 latent and lytic antigens in serum samples from individuals with different risk-factors for HHV-8 infection, as well as predictive marker identification in patients with KS, was conducted. Serum samples were collected from seven groups of individuals: 75 patients with AIDS-KS, 5 with classic KS, 16 with African KS, 495 with HIV/AIDS, 805 patients with chronic kidney disease, 683 handicapped individuals, and 757 health care workers. Samples were evaluated for the presence and titers of HHV-8-specific antibodies to latent and lytic antigens using ""in house"" immunofluorescence assays. The results were analyzed by the Chi-square, Fisher`s exact test, Kruskal-Wallis and/or Mann-Whitney U-tests. The frequencies of HHV-8 antibodies were as follows: 87.5-100% in patients with KS, 20.4% in patients with HIV/AIDS, 18% in patients with chronic kidney disease, 1.6% in handicapped individuals, and 1.1% in health care workers. A greater number of samples were antibody positive to lytic antigens. Elevated titers of antibodies to latent and lytic antigens, mostly among patients with KS, were detected. Using established serological assays, different ""at-risk"" populations for HHV-8 infection/disease were detected in this geographic area, confirming HIV/AIDS and identifying patients with chronic kidney disease as high-risk groups. It is suggested that a longitudinal evaluation of antibody titers in patients with chronic kidney disease be undertaken to confirm their predictive value in the development of KS. J. Med. Virol. 81: 1292-1297, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Functional and morphologic evaluation of kidney proximal tubuli and correlation with renal allograft prognosis

P>Renal transplant patients with stable graft function and proximal tubular dysfunction (PTD) have an increased risk for chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN). In this study, we investigated the histologic pattern associated with PTD and its correlation with graft outcome. Forty-nine transplant patients with stable graft function were submitted to a biopsy. Simultaneously, urinary retinol-binding protein (uRBP) was measured and creatinine clearance was also determined. Banff`s score and semi-quantitative histologic analyses were performed to assess tubulointerstitial alterations. Patients were followed for 24.0 +/- 7.8 months. At biopsy time, mean serum creatinine was 1.43 +/- 0.33 mg/dl. Twelve patients (24.5%) had uRBP >= 1 mg/l, indicating PTD and 67% of biopsies had some degree of tubulointerstitial injury. At the end of the study period, 18 (36.7%) patients had lost renal function. uRBP levels were not associated with morphologic findings of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IF/TA), interstitial fibrosis measured by Sirius red or tubulointerstitial damage. However, in multivariate analysis, the only variable associated with the loss of renal function was uRBP level >= 1 mg/l, determining a risk of 5.290 of loss of renal function (P = 0.003). Renal transplant patients who present PTD have functional alteration, which is not associated with morphologic alteration. This functional alteration is associated to progressive decrease in renal function.

Inconclusive results in conventional serological screening for Chagas` disease in blood banks: evaluation of cellular and humoral response

To find the most reliable screening method for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in blood banks. Epidemiological data, lymphoproliferation assay, parasitological, conventional serological tests: immunofluorescence, haemagglutination, ELISA with epimastigote and trypomastigote antigens and reference serological tests: trypomastigote excreted-secreted antigens (TESA) blot and chemiluminescent ELISA assay with mucine from trypomastigote forms were applied to individuals with inconclusive serology, non-chagasic individuals and chronic chagasic patients. TESA blot had the best performance when used as a single test in all the groups. In the inconclusive group 20.5% of individuals were positive for TESA blot, 23.3% for either lymphoproliferation or TESA blot, and 17.8% for lymphoproliferation only. Positive lymphoproliferation without detectable antibodies was observed in 5.47% of all inconclusive serology cases. Analysis of six parameters (three serological assays, at least one parasitological test, one lymphoproliferation assay and epidemiological data) in the inconclusive group showed that diagnosis of Chagas` disease was probable in 15 patients who were positive by two or more serological tests or for whom three of those six parameters were positive. TESA blot is a good confirmatory test for Chagas` disease in the inconclusive group. Although lymphoproliferation suggests the diagnosis of Chagas` disease in the absence of antibodies when associated with a high epidemiological risk of acquiring Chagas` disease, the data from this study and the characteristics of the lymphoproliferation assay (which is both laborious and time-consuming) do not support its use as a confirmatory test in blood-bank screening. However, our findings underscore the need to develop alternative methods that are not based on antibody detection to improve the diagnosis when serological tests are inconclusive.

Improving the Fluorescence Detectability of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons for Evaluation of Workplace Environments of Cement Industries Processing Organic Residues

The burning of organic residues and wastes in furnaces of cement industries has been an attractive and lucrative approach to eliminate stocks of these pollutants. There is a potential risk for producing PAH in the workplace of industries burning organic wastes, so that highly sensitive analytical methods are needed for monitoring the air quality of these environments. An official method for determination of PAH is based on liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection at fixed excitation and emission wavelengths. We demonstrate that a suitable choice of these wavelengths, which are changed during the chromatographic run, significantly improves the detectability of PAH in atmosphere and particulate matter collected in cement industries.

PANA V : Evaluation of a Literacy Project

PANA V Evaluation of a Literacy ProjectSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSThis evaluation set out to explore the impact of the literacy work carried out through PANA V. It focussed on clarifying effects such as empowerment and poverty reduction in relation to the civil society. Two specific objectives were to evaluate the methodological approach and the didactic materials and to evaluate the sustainability of the project.Although the focus of the evaluation has been PANA V, the project has been evaluated in its context, as one in a series of five projects located in Rwanda ten years after the war and genocide. The conclusion will consider future plans in this field.The evaluator has striven to create a holistic picture of the effects of the project, although the given time for the evaluation was short. Only three weeks were spent in the field study and only ten days in the actual field. Although there were some organisational and logistic problems, as is common when carrying out a study like this in a poor country, many literacy sites were visited and quite many participators were interviewed. The overall impression from the study is overwhelmingly positive. So many people commit themselves in this task of teaching Rwandans reading, writing and numeracy. Despite harsh conditions learners strive to learn and group leaders devote themselves to the task. Many leaders on different levels try their very best to manage their difficult and demanding task. The main objective was to explore the impact of the project on poverty reduction, particularly on empowerment and strategies for everyday life. Women were to be regarded particularly. From the results it is clear that the project has a strong, positive impact both on poverty reduction and empowerment of marginalised groups. Among those who have benefited from the alphabetisation are mainly women. Unfortunately, when it comes to leaders in PANA, who may also be said to have benefited from the project, only a small minority is women. This is something that is recommended that it be reconsidered inside the organisation. As a majority of the targeted learners are women, and as the economic and social situation of women in Rwanda is generally weak, this is a question that I recommend the Pentesostal church and ADEPR to look particularly into. With many women being single breadwinners of their households, it is important that also women get access to positions that may bring benefits of different kind.It is also clear that the project has positive effects for the civil society. In the present situation in Rwanda, during the process of reconciliation and rapid progress, basic education for the poor majority is a democratic issue. In a country with a plethora of internet-cafés in the capital and a small minority that use cars and mobile-telephones to communicate nation-wide, it is of outmost importance that the majority acquires basic education, of which literacy is a central part. To strengthen the civil society in Rwanda literacy is important. One central issue is then that Rwanda develops toward becoming a country where literacy is used for the benefit of the citizens and it is a democratic issue that all citizens get an opportunity to participate. Crucial for this is that strong efforts are put into primary schools nation-wide. Literacy projects for adults, like PANA, may only complement these efforts, but they constitute important and necessary complements. Other relevant ways to promote literacy are campaigns in Radio and TV and through cultural events such as festivals, music and theatre. News papers, magazines and books are natural parts of such campaigns as well as adult education. As stated under the results not much can be said about the didactics in this evaluation. On the whole the methodology and the materials fill their function well and receive a high reputation. As people learn to read and write under very simple conditions, obviously the approach is appropriate. A few suggestions may be given from the study:•Focus groups leaders’ attention on clearness, that they show very clearly what is to be read. Good structuring is probably of great importance for many learners.•Make clear what is tested in the tests and consider the possibility to use a holistic test that would be more congruent with the methodology. The possibility to use only one grade, pass, would enable a more practical test, such as reading a short, relevant text, writing something relevant and solving practical mathematic problems. Avoid tests that demand school knowledge.•Avoid using methaphors such as “fight against illiteracy” and connections between illiteracy/literacy and darkness/light. It is not true that illiteracy causes bad things and that literacy only brings good. •Be prepared that it may be more difficult in the future to achieve the goals as it may be the case that the early learners where the ones who achieved easily. The goal of “literacy in six month” in PANA will probably hold only for some learners but also those who do not manage in six months need literacy skills.A third objective was to secure sustainability. As for sustainability of the project in itself, and of the literacy process, the main conclusion is that there is a good potential. The commitment and devotedness among many involved in PANA proves good. One weakness is individual leaders in ADEPR who do not see this as an important task for the Pentecostal church in Rwanda. Other weaknesses are the unwillingness to mention explicitly the wish, for example among group leaders, to get some kind of incentive and the fear of loosing believers by cooperation with other organisations. A higher degree of transparency in this issue would probably solve some irritations and tensions.As for the sustainability of the literacy skills much may be done to improve. The acquired skills seem to be comparably relevant. The level achieved, and the level tested, may be defined as basic literacy skills, consisting of basic reading, writing and numeracy skills. However, these skills are very restricted and there is a high risk that the skills will decline, which means that there is a high risk that people will forget how to read and write because of lack of exercising. From these conclusions a few suggestions for future development will be given.

Performance evaluation of ventilation radiators

A ventilation radiator is a combined ventilation and heat emission unit currently of interest due to its potential for increasing energy efficiency in exhaust ventilated buildings with warm water heating. This paper presents results of performance tests of several ventilation radiator models conducted under controlled laboratory conditions.   The purpose of the study was to validate results achieved by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in an earlier study and indentify possible improvements in the performance of such systems. The main focus was on heat transfer from internal convection fins, but comfort and health aspects related to ventilation rates and air temperatures were also considered.   The general results from the CFD simulations were confirmed; the heat output of ventilation radiators may be improved by at least 20 % without sacrificing ventilation efficiency or thermal comfort.   Improved thermal efficiency of ventilation radiators allows a lower supply water temperature and energy savings both for heating up and distribution of warm water in heat pumps or district heating systems. A secondary benefit is that a high ventilation rate can be maintained all year around without risk for cold draught.