Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Stock Market Reaction to Fed Funds Rate Surprises: State Dependence and the Financial Crisis

This paper examines the impact of Federal Funds rate (FFR) surprises on stock returns in the United States over the period 1989-2009, focusing on the impact of the recent financial crisis. We find that prior to the crisis, stock prices increased as a response to unexpected FFR cuts. State dependence is also identified with stocks exhibiting larger increases when interest rate easing coincided with recessions, bear stock markets, and tightening credit market conditions. However, an important structural shift took place during the financial crisis, which changed the stock market response to FFR shocks, as well as the nature of state dependence. Specifically, during the crisis period stock market participants did not react positively to unexpected FFR cuts. Our results highlight the severity of the recent financial turmoil episode and the ineffectiveness of conventional monetary policy close to the zero lower bound for nominal interest rates.

Structured RNAs in the ENCODE selected regions of the human genome.

Functional RNA structures play an important role both in the context of noncoding RNA transcripts as well as regulatory elements in mRNAs. Here we present a computational study to detect functional RNA structures within the ENCODE regions of the human genome. Since structural RNAs in general lack characteristic signals in primary sequence, comparative approaches evaluating evolutionary conservation of structures are most promising. We have used three recently introduced programs based on either phylogenetic-stochastic context-free grammar (EvoFold) or energy directed folding (RNAz and AlifoldZ), yielding several thousand candidate structures (corresponding to approximately 2.7% of the ENCODE regions). EvoFold has its highest sensitivity in highly conserved and relatively AU-rich regions, while RNAz favors slightly GC-rich regions, resulting in a relatively small overlap between methods. Comparison with the GENCODE annotation points to functional RNAs in all genomic contexts, with a slightly increased density in 3'-UTRs. While we estimate a significant false discovery rate of approximately 50%-70% many of the predictions can be further substantiated by additional criteria: 248 loci are predicted by both RNAz and EvoFold, and an additional 239 RNAz or EvoFold predictions are supported by the (more stringent) AlifoldZ algorithm. Five hundred seventy RNAz structure predictions fall into regions that show signs of selection pressure also on the sequence level (i.e., conserved elements). More than 700 predictions overlap with noncoding transcripts detected by oligonucleotide tiling arrays. One hundred seventy-five selected candidates were tested by RT-PCR in six tissues, and expression could be verified in 43 cases (24.6%).

Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Agenesis of human pancreas due to decreased half-life of insulin promoter factor 1.

Neonatal diabetes mellitus can be transient or permanent. The severe form of permanent neonatal diabetes mellitus can be associated with pancreas agenesis. Normal pancreas development is controlled by a cascade of transcription factors, where insulin promoter factor 1 (IPF1) plays a crucial role. Here, we describe two novel mutations in the IPF1 gene leading to pancreas agenesis. Direct sequence analysis of exons 1 and 2 of the IPF1 gene revealed two point mutations within the homeobox in exon 2. Genetic analysis of the parents showed that each mutation was inherited from one parent. Mutations localized in helices 1 and 2, respectively, of the homeodomain, decreased the protein half-life significantly, leading to intracellular IPF1 levels of 36% and 27% of wild-type levels. Both mutant forms of IPF1 were normally translocated to the nucleus, and their DNA binding activity on different known target promoters was similar to that of the wild-type protein. However, transcriptional activity of both mutant IPF1 proteins, alone or in combination with HNF3 beta/Foxa2, Pbx1, or the heterodimer E47-beta 2 was reduced, findings accounted for by decreased IPF1 steady state levels and not by impaired protein-protein interactions. We conclude that the IPF1 level is critical for human pancreas formation.

Blocked autophagy sensitizes resistant carcinoma cells to radiation therapy.

Autophagy or "self eating" is frequently activated in tumor cells treated with chemotherapy or irradiation. Whether autophagy represents a survival mechanism or rather contributes to cell death remains controversial. To address this issue, the role of autophagy in radiosensitive and radioresistant human cancer cell lines in response to gamma-irradiation was examined. We found irradiation-induced accumulation of autophagosomes accompanied by strong mRNA induction of the autophagy-related genes beclin 1, atg3, atg4b, atg4c, atg5, and atg12 in each cell line. Transduction of specific target-siRNAs led to down-regulation of these genes for up to 8 days as shown by reverse transcription-PCR and Western blot analysis. Blockade of each autophagy-related gene was associated with strongly diminished accumulation of autophagosomes after irradiation. As shown by clonogenic survival, the majority of inhibited autophagy-related genes, each alone or combined, resulted in sensitization of resistant carcinoma cells to radiation, whereas untreated resistant cells but not sensitive cells survived better when autophagy was inhibited. Similarly, radiosensitization or the opposite was observed in different sensitive carcinoma cells and upon inhibition of different autophagy genes. Mutant p53 had no effect on accumulation of autophagosomes but slightly increased clonogenic survival, as expected, because mutated p53 protects cells by conferring resistance to apoptosis. In our system, short-time inhibition of autophagy along with radiotherapy lead to enhanced cytotoxicity of radiotherapy in resistant cancer cells.

Surveillance for European bat lyssavirus in Swiss bats.

Most countries in Western Europe are currently free of rabies in terrestrial mammals. Nevertheless, rabies remains a residual risk to public health due to the natural circulation of bat-specific viruses, such as European bat lyssaviruses (EBLVs). European bat lyssavirus types 1 and 2 (EBLV-1 and EBLV-2) are widely distributed throughout Europe, but little is known of their true prevalence and epidemiology. We report that only three out of 837 brains taken from bats submitted to the Swiss Rabies Centre between 1976 and 2009 were found by immunofluorescence (FAT) to be positive for EBLVs. All three positive cases were in Myotis daubentoni, from 1992, 1993 and 2002. In addition to this passive surveillance, we undertook a targeted survey in 2009, aimed at detecting lyssaviruses in live bats in Switzerland. A total of 237 bats of the species M. daubentoni, Myotis myotis, Eptesicus serotinus and Nyctalus noctula were captured at different sites in western Switzerland. Oropharyngeal swabs and blood from each individual were analysed by RT-PCR and rapid fluorescent focus inhibition test (RFFIT), respectively. RNA corresponding to EBLV-2 was detected from oropharyngeal swabs of a single M. daubentoni bat, but no infectious virus was found. Molecular phylogenetic analysis revealed that the corresponding sequence was closely related to the other EBLV-2 sequences identified in previous rabies isolates from Swiss bats (particularly to that found at Geneva in 2002). Three M. daubentoni bats were found to be seropositive by RFFIT. In conclusion, even though the prevalence is low in Switzerland, continuous management and surveillance are required to assess the potential risk to public health.

Impaired glucose homeostasis in mice lacking the alpha1b-adrenergic receptor subtype.

To assess the role of the alpha1b-adrenergic receptor (AR) in glucose homeostasis, we investigated glucose metabolism in knockout mice deficient of this receptor subtype (alpha1b-AR-/-). Mutant mice had normal blood glucose and insulin levels, but elevated leptin concentrations in the fed state. During the transition to fasting, glucose and insulin blood concentrations remained markedly elevated for at least 6 h and returned to control levels after 24 h whereas leptin levels remained high at all times. Hyperinsulinemia in the post-absorptive phase was normalized by atropine or methylatropine indicating an elevated parasympathetic activity on the pancreatic beta cells, which was associated with increased levels of hypothalamic NPY mRNA. Euglycemic clamps at both low and high insulin infusion rates revealed whole body insulin resistance with reduced muscle glycogen synthesis and impaired suppression of endogenous glucose production at the low insulin infusion rate. The liver glycogen stores were 2-fold higher in the fed state in the alpha1b-AR-/- compared with control mice, but were mobilized at the same rate during the fed to fast transition or following glucagon injections. Finally, high fat feeding for one month increased glucose intolerance and body weight in the alpha1b-AR-/-, but not in control mice. Altogether, our results indicate that in the absence of the alpha1b-AR the expression of hypotalamic NPY and the parasympathetic nervous activity are both increased resulting in hyperinsulinemia and insulin resistance as well as favoring obesity and glucose intolerance development during high fat feeding.

Multiplex ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method for simultaneous quantification in human plasma of fluconazole, itraconazole, hydroxyitraconazole, posaconazole, voriconazole, voriconazole-N-oxide, anidulafungin, and caspofungin.

Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may contribute to optimizing the efficacy and safety of antifungal therapy because of the large variability in drug pharmacokinetics. Rapid, sensitive, and selective laboratory methods are needed for efficient TDM. Quantification of several antifungals in a single analytical run may best fulfill these requirements. We therefore developed a multiplex ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) method requiring 100 μl of plasma for simultaneous quantification within 7 min of fluconazole, itraconazole, hydroxyitraconazole, posaconazole, voriconazole, voriconazole-N-oxide, caspofungin, and anidulafungin. Protein precipitation with acetonitrile was used in a single extraction procedure for eight analytes. After reverse-phase chromatographic separation, antifungals were quantified by electrospray ionization-triple-quadrupole mass spectrometry by selected reaction monitoring detection using the positive mode. Deuterated isotopic compounds of azole antifungals were used as internal standards. The method was validated based on FDA recommendations, including assessment of extraction yields, matrix effect variability (<9.2%), and analytical recovery (80.1 to 107%). The method is sensitive (lower limits of azole quantification, 0.01 to 0.1 μg/ml; those of echinocandin quantification, 0.06 to 0.1 μg/ml), accurate (intra- and interassay biases of -9.9 to +5% and -4.0 to +8.8%, respectively), and precise (intra- and interassay coefficients of variation of 1.2 to 11.1% and 1.2 to 8.9%, respectively) over clinical concentration ranges (upper limits of quantification, 5 to 50 μg/ml). Thus, we developed a simple, rapid, and robust multiplex UPLC-MS/MS assay for simultaneous quantification of plasma concentrations of six antifungals and two metabolites. This offers, by optimized and cost-effective lab resource utilization, an efficient tool for daily routine TDM aimed at maximizing the real-time efficacy and safety of different recommended single-drug antifungal regimens and combination salvage therapies, as well as a tool for clinical research.

The sirtuin inhibitor cambinol impairs MAPK signaling, inhibits inflammatory and innate immune responses and protects from septic shock.

Sirtuins (SIRT1-7) are NAD(+)-dependent histone deacetylases (HDACs) that play an important role in the control of metabolism and proliferation and the development of age-associated diseases like oncologic, cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases. Cambinol was originally described as a compound inhibiting the activity of SIRT1 and SIRT2, with efficient anti-tumor activity in vivo. Here, we studied the effects of cambinol on microbial sensing by mouse and human immune cells and on host innate immune responses in vivo. Cambinol inhibited the expression of cytokines (TNF, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-12p40, and IFN-γ), NO and CD40 by macrophages, dendritic cells, splenocytes and whole blood stimulated with a broad range of microbial and inflammasome stimuli. Sirtinol, an inhibitor of SIRT1 and SIRT2 structurally related to cambinol, also decreased macrophage response to TLR stimulation. On the contrary, selective inhibitors of SIRT1 (EX-527 and CHIC-35) and SIRT2 (AGK2 and AK-7) used alone or in combination had no inhibitory effect, suggesting that cambinol and sirtinol act by targeting more than just SIRT1 and SIRT2. Cambinol and sirtinol at anti-inflammatory concentrations also did not inhibit SIRT6 activity in in vitro assay. At the molecular level, cambinol impaired stimulus-induced phosphorylation of MAPKs and upstream MEKs. Going well along with its powerful anti-inflammatory activity, cambinol reduced TNF blood levels and bacteremia and improved survival in preclinical models of endotoxic shock and septic shock. Altogether, our data suggest that pharmacological inhibitors of sirtuins structurally related to cambinol may be of clinical interest to treat inflammatory diseases.

Ectodysplasin has a dual role in ectodermal organogenesis: inhibition of Bmp activity and induction of Shh expression.

Ectodermal organogenesis is regulated by inductive and reciprocal signalling cascades that involve multiple signal molecules in several conserved families. Ectodysplasin-A (Eda), a tumour necrosis factor-like signalling molecule, and its receptor Edar are required for the development of a number of ectodermal organs in vertebrates. In mice, lack of Eda leads to failure in primary hair placode formation and missing or abnormally shaped teeth, whereas mice overexpressing Eda are characterized by enlarged hair placodes and supernumerary teeth and mammary glands. Here, we report two signalling outcomes of the Eda pathway: suppression of bone morphogenetic protein (Bmp) activity and upregulation of sonic hedgehog (Shh) signalling. Recombinant Eda counteracted Bmp4 activity in developing teeth and, importantly, inhibition of BMP activity by exogenous noggin partially restored primary hair placode formation in Eda-deficient skin in vitro, indicating that suppression of Bmp activity was compromised in the absence of Eda. The downstream effects of the Eda pathway are likely to be mediated by transcription factor nuclear factor-kappaB (NF-kappaB), but the transcriptional targets of Edar have remained unknown. Using a quantitative approach, we show in cultured embryonic skin that Eda induced the expression of two Bmp inhibitors, Ccn2/Ctgf (CCN family protein 2/connective tissue growth factor) and follistatin. Moreover, our data indicate that Shh is a likely transcriptional target of Edar, but, unlike noggin, recombinant Shh was unable to rescue primary hair placode formation in Eda-deficient skin explants.