Predicting spatial patterns of plant species richness: a comparison of direct macroecological and species stacking approaches

Aim This study compares the direct, macroecological approach (MEM) for modelling species richness (SR) with the more recent approach of stacking predictions from individual species distributions (S-SDM). We implemented both approaches on the same dataset and discuss their respective theoretical assumptions, strengths and drawbacks. We also tested how both approaches performed in reproducing observed patterns of SR along an elevational gradient.Location Two study areas in the Alps of Switzerland.Methods We implemented MEM by relating the species counts to environmental predictors with statistical models, assuming a Poisson distribution. S-SDM was implemented by modelling each species distribution individually and then stacking the obtained prediction maps in three different ways - summing binary predictions, summing random draws of binomial trials and summing predicted probabilities - to obtain a final species count.Results The direct MEM approach yields nearly unbiased predictions centred around the observed mean values, but with a lower correlation between predictions and observations, than that achieved by the S-SDM approaches. This method also cannot provide any information on species identity and, thus, community composition. It does, however, accurately reproduce the hump-shaped pattern of SR observed along the elevational gradient. The S-SDM approach summing binary maps can predict individual species and thus communities, but tends to overpredict SR. The two other S-SDM approaches the summed binomial trials based on predicted probabilities and summed predicted probabilities - do not overpredict richness, but they predict many competing end points of assembly or they lose the individual species predictions, respectively. Furthermore, all S-SDM approaches fail to appropriately reproduce the observed hump-shaped patterns of SR along the elevational gradient.Main conclusions Macroecological approach and S-SDM have complementary strengths. We suggest that both could be used in combination to obtain better SR predictions by following the suggestion of constraining S-SDM by MEM predictions.

Genotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from alow-endemic setting in northwestern state of Paraná in Southern Brazil

The purpose of this study was to provide information about the genetic diversity and prevalent genotype of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a low-endemic setting in northwestern state of Paraná in Southern Brazil. We employed spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) techniques to genotype M. tuberculosisisolates from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). The 93 isolates analyzed by spoligotyping were divided into 36 different patterns, 30 of which were described in the SITVIT database. Latin American and Mediterranean, Haarlem and T families were responsible for 26.9%, 17.2% and 11.8% of TB cases, respectively. From the 84 isolates analyzed by MIRU-VNTR, 58 shared a unique pattern and the remaining 26 belonged to nine clusters. The MIRU loci 40, 23, 10 and 16 were the most discriminatory. A combination of MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping resulted in 85.7% discriminatory power (Hunter-Gaston index = 0.995). Thus, combining spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR typing proved to be most useful for epidemiological study in this low-endemic setting in Southern Brazil. The current study demonstrated that there is significant diversity in circulating strains in the city of Maringá and the surrounding regions, with no single genotype of M. tuberculosispredominating.

An assessment of donor-to-recipient transmission patterns of human cytomegalovirus by analysis of viral genomic variants.

BACKGROUND: We studied human cytomegalovirus (CMV) donor-to-recipient transmission patterns in organ transplantation by analyzing genomic variants on the basis of CMV glycoprotein B (gB) genotyping. METHODS: Organ transplant recipients were included in the study if they had CMV viremia, if they had received an organ from a CMV-seropositive donor, and if there was at least 1 other recipient of an organ from the same donor who developed CMV viremia. Genotypes (gB1-4) were determined by real-time polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: Forty-seven recipients of organs from 21 donors developed CMV viremia. Twenty-three recipients had a pretransplant donor/recipient (D/R) CMV serostatus of D(+)/R(+), and 24 had a serostatus of D(+)/R(-). The prevalences of genotypes in recipients were as follows: for gB1, 51% (n = 24); for gB2, 19% (n = 9); for gB3, 9% (n = 4); for gB4, 0% (n = 0); and for mixed infection, 21% (n = 10). Recipients of an organ from a common donor had infection with CMV of the same gB genotype in 12 (57%) of 21 instances. Concordance between genotypes was higher among seronegative (i.e., D(+)/R(-)) recipients than among seropositive (D(+)/R(+)) recipients, although discordances resulting from the transmission of multiple strains were seen. In seropositive recipients, transmission of multiple strains from the donor could not be differentiated from reactivation of a recipient's own strains. CONCLUSION: Our analysis of strain concordance among recipients of organs from common donors showed that transmission of CMV has complex dynamic patterns. In seropositive recipients, transmission or reactivation of multiple CMV strains is possible.

Developmental and reproductive patterns of Triatoma brasiliensis infected with Trypanosoma cruzi under laboratory conditions

The aim of this work was to study the interaction between Trypanosoma cruzi-1 and Triatoma brasiliensis. A group of 1st instar nymphs was initially fed on T. cruzi-infected mice and a control group was fed on uninfected mice. From the second feeding onwards, both groups were otherwise fed on non-infected mice. The resulting adults were grouped in pairs: infected male/uninfected female, uninfected male/infected female, infected male and female and uninfected male/uninfected female. The infection affected only the 1st instar nymphs, which took significantly more time to reach the 2nd instar than uninfected nymphs. The differences in the molting time between the infected and uninfected nymphs from the 2nd to the 5th instars were not statistically significant. Both groups presented similar rates of nymphal mortality and reproductive performance was not significantly affected by infection in any of the treatments.

Assessing the link between coping patterns and interpersonal behaviors in depressed women

Aim. Stressful life events are an important contributor to the onset and course of depression. Coping strategies and interpersonal patterns have been found to mediate the effects of stress [1]. Methods. This study examined the relationship between coping patterns and interpersonal interactions in early psychotherapy sessions of 25 female patients with major depression. Transcripts were rated for coping patterns using the Coping Patterns Rating Scale (CPRS; [2]). Interpersonal patterns were assessed using the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior (SASB; [3]). Results. Significant correlations were found between coping patterns and markers of interpersonal functioning in selected contexts. Discussion. The implications of these findings in understanding an important aspect of vulnerability to depression and enhancing treatment outcome are discussed.

Prevalence and factors associated with circadian blood pressure patterns in hypertensive patients.

Ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring has become useful in the diagnosis and management of hypertensive individuals. In addition to 24-hour values, the circadian variation of BP adds prognostic significance in predicting cardiovascular outcome. However, the magnitude of circadian BP patterns in large studies has hardly been noticed. Our aims were to determine the prevalence of circadian BP patterns and to assess clinical conditions associated with the nondipping status in groups of both treated and untreated hypertensive subjects, studied separately. Clinical data and 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring were obtained from 42,947 hypertensive patients included in the Spanish Society of Hypertension Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring Registry. They were 8384 previously untreated and 34,563 treated hypertensives. Twenty-four-hour ambulatory BP monitoring was performed with an oscillometric device (SpaceLabs 90207). A nondipping pattern was defined when nocturnal systolic BP dip was <10% of daytime systolic BP. The prevalence of nondipping was 41% in the untreated group and 53% in treated patients. In both groups, advanced age, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and overt cardiovascular or renal disease were associated with a blunted nocturnal BP decline (P<0.001). In treated patients, nondipping was associated with the use of a higher number of antihypertensive drugs but not with the time of the day at which antihypertensive drugs were administered. In conclusion, a blunted nocturnal BP dip (the nondipping pattern) is common in hypertensive patients. A clinical pattern of high cardiovascular risk is associated with nondipping, suggesting that the blunted nocturnal BP dip may be merely a marker of high cardiovascular risk.

Predicting spatial patterns of plant biodiversity : from species to communities

Understanding the distribution and composition of species assemblages and being able to predict them in space and time are highly important tasks io investigate the fate of biodiversity in the current global changes context. Species distribution models are tools that have proven useful to predict the potential distribution of species by relating their occurrences to environmental variables. Species assemblages can then be predicted by combining the prediction of individual species models. In the first part of my thesis, I tested the importance of new environmental predictors to improve species distribution prediction. I showed that edaphic variables, above all soil pH and nitrogen content could be important in species distribution models. In a second chapter, I tested the influence of different resolution of predictors on the predictive ability of species distribution models. I showed that fine resolution predictors could ameliorate the models for some species by giving a better estimation of the micro-topographic condition that species tolerate, but that fine resolution predictors for climatic factors still need to be ameliorated. The second goal of my thesis was to test the ability of empirical models to predict species assemblages' characteristics such as species richness or functional attributes. I showed that species richness could be modelled efficiently and that the resulting prediction gave a more realistic estimate of the number of species than when obtaining it by stacking outputs of single species distribution models. Regarding the prediction of functional characteristics (plant height, leaf surface, seed mass) of plant assemblages, mean and extreme values of functional traits were better predictable than indices reflecting the diversity of traits in the community. This approach proved interesting to understand which environmental conditions influence particular aspects of the vegetation functioning. It could also be useful to predict climate change impacts on the vegetation. In the last part of my thesis, I studied the capacity of stacked species distribution models to predict the plant assemblages. I showed that this method tended to over-predict the number of species and that the composition of the community was not predicted exactly either. Finally, I combined the results of macro- ecological models obtained in the preceding chapters with stacked species distribution models and showed that this approach reduced significantly the number of species predicted and that the prediction of the composition is also ameliorated in some cases. These results showed that this method is promising. It needs now to be tested on further data sets. - Comprendre la manière dont les plantes se répartissent dans l'environnement et s'organisent en communauté est une question primordiale dans le contexte actuel de changements globaux. Cette connaissance peut nous aider à sauvegarder la diversité des espèces et les écosystèmes. Des méthodes statistiques nous permettent de prédire la distribution des espèces de plantes dans l'espace géographique et dans le temps. Ces modèles de distribution d'espèces, relient les occurrences d'une espèce avec des variables environnementales pour décrire sa distribution potentielle. Cette méthode a fait ses preuves pour ce qui est de la prédiction d'espèces individuelles. Plus récemment plusieurs tentatives de cumul de modèles d'espèces individuelles ont été réalisées afin de prédire la composition des communautés végétales. Le premier objectif de mon travail est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution en testant l'importance de nouvelles variables prédictives. Parmi différentes variables édaphiques, le pH et la teneur en azote du sol se sont avérés des facteurs non négligeables pour prédire la distribution des plantes. Je démontre aussi dans un second chapitre que les prédicteurs environnementaux à fine résolution permettent de refléter les conditions micro-topographiques subies par les plantes mais qu'ils doivent encore être améliorés avant de pouvoir être employés de manière efficace dans les modèles. Le deuxième objectif de ce travail consistait à étudier le développement de modèles prédictifs pour des attributs des communautés végétales tels que, par exemple, la richesse en espèces rencontrée à chaque point. Je démontre qu'il est possible de prédire par ce biais des valeurs de richesse spécifiques plus réalistes qu'en sommant les prédictions obtenues précédemment pour des espèces individuelles. J'ai également prédit dans l'espace et dans le temps des caractéristiques de la végétation telles que sa hauteur moyenne, minimale et maximale. Cette approche peut être utile pour comprendre quels facteurs environnementaux promeuvent différents types de végétation ainsi que pour évaluer les changements à attendre au niveau de la végétation dans le futur sous différents régimes de changements climatiques. Dans une troisième partie de ma thèse, j'ai exploré la possibilité de prédire les assemblages de plantes premièrement en cumulant les prédictions obtenues à partir de modèles individuels pour chaque espèce. Cette méthode a le défaut de prédire trop d'espèces par rapport à ce qui est observé en réalité. J'ai finalement employé le modèle de richesse en espèce développé précédemment pour contraindre les résultats du modèle d'assemblage de plantes. Cela a permis l'amélioration des modèles en réduisant la sur-prédiction et en améliorant la prédiction de la composition en espèces. Cette méthode semble prometteuse mais de nouveaux tests sont nécessaires pour bien évaluer ses capacités.

Ecological patterns of blood-feeding by kissing-bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae)

Host use by vectors is important in understanding the transmission of zoonotic diseases, which can affect humans, wildlife and domestic animals. Here, a synthesis of host exploitation patterns by kissing-bugs, vectors of Chagas disease, is presented. For this synthesis, an extensive literature review restricted to feeding sources analysed by precipitin tests was conducted. Modern tools from community ecology and multivariate statistics were used to determine patterns of segregation in host use. Rather than innate preferences for host species, host use by kissing-bugs is influenced by the habitats they colonise. One of the major limitations of studies on kissing-bug foraging has been the exclusive focus on the dominant vector species. We propose that expanding foraging studies to consider the community of vectors will substantially increase the understanding of Chagas disease transmission ecology. Our results indicate that host accessibility is a major factor that shapes the blood-foraging patterns of kissing-bugs. Therefore, from an applied perspective, measures that are directed at disrupting the contact between humans and kissing-bugs, such as housing improvement, are among the most desirable strategies for Chagas disease control.

Schistosomal glomerulopathy and changes in the distribution of histological patterns of glomerular diseases in Bahia, Brazil

Distinct patterns of glomerular lesions, including membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, are associated with infection by Schistosoma mansoni or Schistosoma japonicum. Evidence suggests that immune complex deposition is the main mechanism underlying the different forms of schistosomal glomerulonephritis and that immune complex deposition may be intensified by portal hypertension. The relationship between focal segmental glomerulosclerosis and schistosomiasis remains poorly understood. A clinicopathologic classification of schistosomal glomerulopathies was proposed in 1992 by the African Association of Nephrology. In Brazil, mass treatment with oral medications has led to a decrease in the occurrence of schistosomal glomerulopathy. In a survey of renal biopsies performed in Salvador, Brazil, from 2003-2009, only 24 (4%) patients were identified as positive for S. mansoni infection. Among these patients, only one had the hepatosplenic form of the disease. Focal segmental glomerulosclerosis was found in seven patients and membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis was found in four patients. Although retrospective studies on the prevalence of renal diseases based on kidney biopsies may be influenced by many patient selection biases, a change in the distribution of glomerulopathies associated with nephrotic syndrome was observed along with a decline in the occurrence of severe forms of schistosomiasis.

Longitudinal analysis of patterns and predictors of changes in self-reported adherence to antiretroviral therapy: Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is a dynamic process, however, changes in adherence behavior over time are insufficiently understood. METHODS: Data on self-reported missed doses of cART was collected every 6 months in Swiss HIV Cohort Study participants. We identified behavioral groups associated with specific cART adherence patterns using trajectory analyses. Repeated measures logistic regression identified predictors of changes in adherence between consecutive visits. RESULTS: Six thousand seven hundred nine individuals completed 49,071 adherence questionnaires [median 8 (interquartile range: 5-10)] during a median follow-up time of 4.5 years (interquartile range: 2.4-5.1). Individuals were clustered into 4 adherence groups: good (51.8%), worsening (17.4%), improving (17.6%), and poor adherence (13.2%). Independent predictors of worsening adherence were younger age, basic education, loss of a roommate, starting intravenous drug use, increasing alcohol intake, depression, longer time with HIV, onset of lipodystrophy, and changing care provider. Independent predictors of improvements in adherence were regimen simplification, changing class of cART, less time on cART, and starting comedications. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment, behavioral changes, and life events influence patterns of drug intake in HIV patients. Clinical care providers should routinely monitor factors related to worsening adherence and intervene early to reduce the risk of treatment failure and drug resistance.

Change in mutation patterns of Plasmodium vivax dihydrofolate reductase (Pvdhfr) and dihydropteroate synthase (Pvdhps) in P. vivax isolates from malaria endemic areas of Thailand

Malaria is the most important public health problem in several countries. In Thailand, co-infections of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum are common. We examined the prevalence and patterns of mutations in P. vivax dihydrofolate reductase (Pvdhfr) and P. vivax dihydropteroate synthase (Pvdhps) in 103 blood samples collected from patients with P. vivax infection who had attended the malaria clinic in Mae Sot, Tak Province during 2009 and 2010. Using nested polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorfism, we examined single nucleotide polymorphisms-haplotypes at amino acid positions 13, 33, 57, 58, 61, 117 and 173 of Pvdhfr and 383 and 553 of Pvdhps. All parasite isolates carried mutant Pvdhfr alleles, of which the most common alleles were triple mutants (99%). Eight different types of Pvdhfr and combination alleles were found, as follows: 57I/58R/117T, 57I/58R/117T, 57I/58R/117T/N, 57L/58R/117T, 57L/58R/117T, 58R/61M/117N, 58R/61M/117N and 13L/57L/58R/117T. The most common Pvdhfr alleles were 57I/58R/117T (77.7%), 57I/58R/117T/N (1%), 57L/58R/117T (5.8%) and 58R/61M/117N (14.5%). The most common Pvdhfr alleles were 57I/58R/117T (77.7%), 57I/58R/117T/N (1%), 57L/58R/117T (5.8%) and 58R/61M/117N (14.5%). Additionally, we recovered one isolate of a carrying a quadruple mutant allele, 13L/57L/58R/117T. The most prevalent Pvdhps allele was a single mutation in amino acid 383 (82.5%), followed by the wild-type A383/A553 (17.5%) allele. Results suggest that all P. vivax isolates in Thailand carry some combination of mutations in Pvdhfr and Pvdhps. Our findings demonstrate that development of new antifolate drugs effective against sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine-resistant P. vivax is required.

Spoligotyping and variable number tandem repeat analysis of Mycobacterium bovis isolates from cattle in Brazil

We performed spoligotyping and 12-mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem repeats (MIRU-VNTRs) typing to characterise Mycobacterium bovis isolates collected from tissue samples of bovines with lesions suggestive for tuberculosis during slaughter inspection procedures in abattoirs in Brazil. High-quality genotypes were obtained with both procedures for 61 isolates that were obtained from 185 bovine tissue samples and all of these isolates were identified as M. bovis by conventional identification procedures. On the basis of the spoligotyping, 53 isolates were grouped into nine clusters and the remaining eight isolates were unique types, resulting in 17 spoligotypes. The majority of the Brazilian M. bovis isolates displayed spoligotype patterns that have been previously observed in strains isolated from cattle in other countries. MIRU-VNTR typing produced 16 distinct genotypes, with 53 isolates forming eight of the groups, and individual isolates with unique VNTR profiles forming the remaining eight groups. The allelic diversity of each VNTR locus was calculated and only two of the 12-MIRU-VNTR loci presented scores with either a moderate (0.4, MIRU16) or high (0.6, MIRU26) discriminatory index (h). Both typing methods produced similar discriminatory indexes (spoligotyping h = 0.85; MIRU-VNTR h = 0.86) and the combination of the two methods increased the h value to 0.94, resulting in 29 distinct patterns. These results confirm that spoligotyping and VNTR analysis are valuable tools for studying the molecular epidemiology of M. bovis infections in Brazil.

Exploration of alpine orographic precipitation patterns with radar image processing and clustering techniques

A methodology of exploratory data analysis investigating the phenomenon of orographic precipitation enhancement is proposed. The precipitation observations obtained from three Swiss Doppler weather radars are analysed for the major precipitation event of August 2005 in the Alps. Image processing techniques are used to detect significant precipitation cells/pixels from radar images while filtering out spurious effects due to ground clutter. The contribution of topography to precipitation patterns is described by an extensive set of topographical descriptors computed from the digital elevation model at multiple spatial scales. Additionally, the motion vector field is derived from subsequent radar images and integrated into a set of topographic features to highlight the slopes exposed to main flows. Following the exploratory data analysis with a recent algorithm of spectral clustering, it is shown that orographic precipitation cells are generated under specific flow and topographic conditions. Repeatability of precipitation patterns in particular spatial locations is found to be linked to specific local terrain shapes, e.g. at the top of hills and on the upwind side of the mountains. This methodology and our empirical findings for the Alpine region provide a basis for building computational data-driven models of orographic enhancement and triggering of precipitation. Copyright (C) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society .

Coxiella burnetii, the agent of Q fever in Brazil: its hidden role in seronegative arthritis and the importance of molecular diagnosis based on the repetitive element IS1111 associated with the transposase gene

Coxiella burnetii is the agent of Q fever , an emergent worldwide zoonosis of wide clinical spectrum. Although C. burnetii infection is typically associated with acute infection, atypical pneumonia and flu-like symptoms, endocarditis, osteoarticular manifestations and severe disease are possible, especially when the patient has a suppressed immune system; however, these severe complications are typically neglected. This study reports the sequencing of the repetitive element IS1111 of the transposase gene of C. burnetii from blood and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) samples from a patient with severe pneumonia following methotrexate therapy, resulting in the molecular diagnosis of Q fever in a patient who had been diagnosed with active seronegative polyarthritis two years earlier. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first documented case of the isolation of C. burnetii DNA from a BAL sample.