819 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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Over the course of the last twenty years there has been a growing academic interest in performance management, particularly in respect of the evolution of new techniques and their resulting impact. One important theoretical development has been the emergence of multidimensional performance measurement models that are potentially applicable within the public sector. Empirically, academic researchers are increasingly supporting the use of such models as a way of improving public sector management and the effectiveness of service provision (Mayston, 1985; Pollitt, 1986; Bates and Brignall, 1993; and Massey, 1999). This paper seeks to add to the literature by using both theoretical and empirical evidence to argue that CPA, the external inspection tool used by the Audit Commission to evaluate local authority performance management, is a version of the Balanced Scorecard which, when adapted for internal use, may have beneficial effects. After demonstrating the parallels between the CPA framework and Kaplan and Norton's public sector Balanced Scorecard (BSC), we use a case study of the BSC based performance management system in Hertfordshire County Council to demonstrate the empirical linkages between a local scorecard and CPA. We conclude that CPA is based upon the BSC and has the potential to serve as a springboard for the evolution of local authority performance management systems.

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In recent decades, natural disasters have caused extensive losses and damages to human psychological wellbeing, economy, and society. It has been argued that cultural factors such as social values, traditions, and attachment to a location influence communities facing and responding to natural disasters. However, the issue of culture in disaster mental health seems to have received limited attention in policy and practice. This review highlights the importance of cultural background in the assessment of vulnerability to the psychological impacts of disasters, disaster preparedness, and provision of disaster mental health services. In particular, this paper suggests the importance of cultural competence in the planning and delivery of effective disaster mental health services. In order to address the varying circumstances of people with different cultural backgrounds, disaster mental health services must be developed in a culturally sensitive manner. Development of culturally competent disaster mental health services requires significant changes in policy making, administration, and direct service provision

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In the paper some important notions and features of context-aware and adaptable service provision have been discussed. An approach has been described which can be used to develop architectures with the mentioned features. The abstract architecture AC3 and its application for implementing an eLearning environment have been described as well.

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In this paper, I analyze the role of longevity risk in Hungary in the public pension system and the life annuity segment of the life insurance market, which are two primary financial sectors of relevance to this special type of actuarial risk, using state-of-the- art econometric methodology. To this end, I present an overview and the mathematical background of several important current mortality forecasting techniques from the Lee–Carter model up to unifying paradigm of the Age–Period–Cohort family of models. After presenting the findings of a case study on the public pension system based on the paper of Bajk ́o, Maknics, T ́oth and V ́ekas, I conclude that longevity risk jeopardizes the sustainability of the Hungarian public pension system in the long run. In another case study, I present an analysis of the role of longevity risk in the pre- mium of private pension annuities, a relevant topic due to recent changes in a law on Hungarian voluntary pension funds, following an earlier analysis of M ́ajer and Kov ́acs. Based on the criterion on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, I find that the Cairns–Blake– Dowd mortality forecasting model aimed specifically at modeling old-age mortality outperforms the Lee–Carter model applied by M ́ajer and Kov ́acs . Based on numerical results, I finally conclude that the role of longevity risk in the Hungarian life annuity mar- ket has increased significantly in the past decade and is likely to further increase in the future.

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Since the 1990s, scholars have paid special attention to public management’s role in theory and research under the assumption that effective management is one of the primary means for achieving superior performance. To some extent, this was influenced by popular business writings of the 1980s as well as the reinventing literature of the 1990s. A number of case studies but limited quantitative research papers have been published showing that management matters in the performance of public organizations. ^ My study examined whether or not management capacity increased organizational performance using quantitative techniques. The specific research problem analyzed was whether significant differences existed between high and average performing public housing agencies on select criteria identified in the Government Performance Project (GPP) management capacity model, and whether this model could predict outcome performance measures in a statistically significant manner, while controlling for exogenous influences. My model included two of four GPP management subsystems (human resources and information technology), integration and alignment of subsystems, and an overall managing for results framework. It also included environmental and client control variables that were hypothesized to affect performance independent of management action. ^ Descriptive results of survey responses showed high performing agencies with better scores on most high performance dimensions of individual criteria, suggesting support for the model; however, quantitative analysis found limited statistically significant differences between high and average performers and limited predictive power of the model. My analysis led to the following major conclusions: past performance was the strongest predictor of present performance; high unionization hurt performance; and budget related criterion mattered more for high performance than other model factors. As to the specific research question, management capacity may be necessary but it is not sufficient to increase performance. ^ The research suggested managers may benefit by implementing best practices identified through the GPP model. The usefulness of the model could be improved by adding direct service delivery to the model, which may also improve its predictive power. Finally, there are abundant tested concepts and tools designed to improve system performance that are available for practitioners designed to improve management subsystem support of direct service delivery.^

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The resounding message extracted from the service literature is that employees serve pivotal functions in the overall guest experience. This is of course due to the simultaneous delivery of personalized service provision with resultant consumption of those services. This simultaneous delivery and consumption cycle is at times challenged by a perceived desire to accommodate guest request that may violate, to a greater or lesser degree, an organizational rule. This is important to note because increased interactions with customers enable frontline employees to have a better sense of what customers want from the company as well as from the company itself (Bitner, et al, 1994). With that platform established, then why are some employees willing to break organizational rules and risk disciplinary action to better service a customer? This study examines the employee personality, degree of autonomy, job meaning, and co-worker influence on an employee's decision to break organizational rules. The results of this study indicate that co-worker influence exerted a minimal influence on employee decision to break rules while the presence of societal consciousness exerted a much stronger influence. Women reported that they were less likely to engage in rule divergence, and significant correlations were present when filtered by years in current position, and years in the industry.

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The resounding message extracted from the service literature is that employees serve pivotal functions in the overall guest experience. This is of course due to the simultaneous delivery of personalized service provision with resultant consumption of those services. This simultaneous delivery and consumption cycle is at times challenged by a perceived desire to accommodate guest request that may violate, to a greater or lesser degree, an organizational rule. This is important to note because increased interactions with customers enable frontline employees to have a better sense of what customers want from the company as well as from the company itself (Bitner, et al, 1994). With that platform established, then why are some employees willing to break organizational rules and risk disciplinary action to better service a customer? This study examines the employee personality, degree of autonomy, job meaning, and co-worker influence on an employee's decision to break organizational rules. The results of this study indicate that co-worker influence exerted a minimal influence on employee decision to break rules while the presence of societal consciousness exerted a much stronger influence. Women reported that they were less likely to engage in rule divergence, and significant correlations were present when filtered by years in current position, and years in the industry.

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Despite the importance of mangrove ecosystems in the global carbon budget, the relationships between environmental drivers and carbon dynamics in these forests remain poorly understood. This limited understanding is partly a result of the challenges associated with in situ flux studies. Tower-based CO2 eddy covariance (EC) systems are installed in only a few mangrove forests worldwide, and the longest EC record from the Florida Everglades contains less than 9 years of observations. A primary goal of the present study was to develop a methodology to estimate canopy-scale photosynthetic light use efficiency in this forest. These tower-based observations represent a basis for associating CO2 fluxes with canopy light use properties, and thus provide the means for utilizing satellite-based reflectance data for larger scale investigations. We present a model for mangrove canopy light use efficiency utilizing the enhanced green vegetation index (EVI) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) that is capable of predicting changes in mangrove forest CO2 fluxes caused by a hurricane disturbance and changes in regional environmental conditions, including temperature and salinity. Model parameters are solved for in a Bayesian framework. The model structure requires estimates of ecosystem respiration (RE), and we present the first ever tower-based estimates of mangrove forest RE derived from nighttime CO2 fluxes. Our investigation is also the first to show the effects of salinity on mangrove forest CO2 uptake, which declines 5% per each 10 parts per thousand (ppt) increase in salinity. Light use efficiency in this forest declines with increasing daily photosynthetic active radiation, which is an important departure from the assumption of constant light use efficiency typically applied in satellite-driven models. The model developed here provides a framework for estimating CO2 uptake by these forests from reflectance data and information about environmental conditions.

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The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized covariances that incorporates asymmetry and long memory (hereafter the RMESV-ALM model). The matrix exponential transformation guarantees the positivedefiniteness of the dynamic covariance matrix. The contribution of the paper ties in with Robert Basmann’s seminal work in terms of the estimation of highly non-linear model specifications (“Causality tests and observationally equivalent representations of econometric models”, Journal of Econometrics, 1988, 39(1-2), 69–104), especially for developing tests for leverage and spillover effects in the covariance dynamics. Efficient importance sampling is used to maximize the likelihood function of RMESV-ALM, and the finite sample properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters are analysed. Using high frequency data for three US financial assets, the new model is estimated and evaluated. The forecasting performance of the new model is compared with a novel dynamic realized matrix-exponential conditional covariance model. The volatility and co-volatility spillovers are examined via the news impact curves and the impulse response functions from returns to volatility and co-volatility.

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Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

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Background: Research suggests that patients presenting to hospital with self-cutting differ from those with intentional overdose in demographic and clinical characteristics. However, large-scale national studies comparing self-cutting patients with those using other self-harm methods are lacking. We aimed to compare hospital-treated self-cutting and intentional overdose, to examine the role of gender in moderating these differences, and examine the characteristics and outcomes of those patients presenting with combined self-cutting and overdose. Methods: Between 2003 and 2010, the Irish National Registry of Deliberate Self-Harm recorded 42,585 self-harm presentations to Irish hospital emergency departments meeting the study inclusion criteria. Data were obtained on demographic and clinical characteristics by independent data registration officers. Results: Compared with overdose only, involvement of self-cutting (with or without overdose) was significantly more common in males than females, with an overrepresentation of males aged <35 years. Independent of gender, involvement of self-cutting (with or without overdose) was significantly associated with younger age, city residence, repetition within 30 days and repetition within a year (females only). Factors associated with self-cutting as the sole method were no fixed abode/living in an institution, presenting outside 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., not consuming alcohol and repetition between 31 days and 1 year (males only). Conclusion: The demographic and clinical differences between self-harm patients underline the presence of different subgroups with implications for service provision and prevention of repeated self-harm. Given the relationship between self-cutting and subsequent repetition, service providers need to ensure that adequate follow-up arrangements and supports are in place for the patient.

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Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

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During a 4-month period, July 2nd 2014 to November 1st 2014, Canadian physiotherapy (PT) professionals were solicited for participation in an empirical cross-sectional online survey questionnaire. Our research team was interested in exploring the ethical challenges encountered in the interactions between PT professionals and third party payers. Analysis of the survey will be disseminated through scientific publications. The purpose of this report is to give detailed results relevant to your provincial association.

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During a 4-month period, July 2nd 2014 to November 1st 2014, Canadian physiotherapy (PT) professionals were solicited for participation in an empirical cross-sectional online survey questionnaire. Our research team was interested in exploring the ethical challenges encountered in the interactions between PT professionals and third party payers. Analysis of the survey will be disseminated through scientific publications. The purpose of this report is to give detailed results relevant to your provincial association.

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During a 4-month period, July 2nd 2014 to November 1st 2014, Canadian physiotherapy (PT) professionals were solicited for participation in an empirical cross-sectional online survey questionnaire. Our research team was interested in exploring the ethical challenges encountered in the interactions between PT professionals and third party payers. Analysis of the survey will be disseminated through scientific publications. The purpose of this report is to give detailed results relevant to your provincial association.