Echoes of the crises in Spain and US in the Colombian labor market : a differences-in-differences approach

This paper presents evidence of the effect of the recent phases of the business cycle in Spain and United States, proxied by their respective unemployment rates, on the labor market of Colombian cities with high migration tradition. These countries are the main destination for labor Colombian migrants. Using information from the household survey between 2006 and 2011 for urban areas in Colombia and a differences-in-differences approach we find that unemployment rates of those countries negatively affect the probability and the amount of remittances received by Colombian households living in areas with high and moderate migration tradition. At a second stage we provide evidence that unemployment rates of those countries positively affect the labor force participation decisions in Colombian regions with the highest migration tradition.

Ecuaciones diferenciales estocásticas con condición final y soluciones de viscosidad de EDPS semilineales de segundo orden

El objetivo de este documento es recopilar algunos resultados clasicos sobre existencia y unicidad ´ de soluciones de ecuaciones diferenciales estocasticas (EDEs) con condici ´ on final (en ingl ´ es´ Backward stochastic differential equations) con particular enfasis en el caso de coeficientes mon ´ otonos, y su cone- ´ xion con soluciones de viscosidad de sistemas de ecuaciones diferenciales parciales (EDPs) parab ´ olicas ´ y el´ıpticas semilineales de segundo orden.

Economic shocks and crime: evidence from the crash of ponzi schemes

In November 2008, Colombian authorities dismantled a network of Ponzi schemes, making hundreds of thousands of investors lose tens of millions of dollars throughout the country. Using original data on the geographical incidence of the Ponzi schemes, this paper estimates the impact of their break down on crime. We find that the crash of Ponzi schemes differentially exacerbated crime in affected districts. Confirming the intuition of the standard economic model of crime, this effect is only present in places with relatively weak judicial and law enforcement institutions, and with little access to consumption smoothing mechanisms such as microcredit. In addition, we show that, with the exception of economically-motivated felonies such as robbery, violent crime is not affected by the negative shock.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

Natural resources, redistribution and Human capital formation

How do resource booms affect human capital accumulation? We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodity boom across local governments in Peru to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation. We explore the effect of both mining production and tax revenues on test scores, finding a substantial and statistically significant effect for the latter. Transfers to local governments from mining tax revenues are linked to an increase in math test scores of around 0.23 standard deviations. We find that the hiring of permanent teachers as well as the increases in parental employment and improvements in health outcomes of adults and children are plausible mechanisms for such large effect on learning. These findings suggest that redistributive policies could facilitate the accumulation of human capital in resource abundant developing countries as a way to avoid the natural resources curse.

The Importance of Agriculture-Dominated Landscapes and Lack of Field Border Effect for Early-Succession Songbird Nest Success

In recent decades, many early-succession songbird species have experienced severe and widespread declines, which often are related to habitat destruction. Field borders create additional or enhance existing early-succession habitat on farmland. However, field border shape and the landscape context surrounding farms may influence the effectiveness of field borders in contributing to the stabilization or increase of early-succession bird populations. We examined the influence of linear and nonlinear field borders on farms in landscapes dominated by either agriculture or forests on nest success and Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) brood parasitism of Indigo Bunting (Passerina cyanea) and Blue Grosbeak (Passerina caerulea) nests combined. Field border establishment did not affect nest survival probability and brood parasitism frequency of Indigo Bunting and Blue Grosbeak nests. Indigo Bunting/Blue Grosbeak nest success probability was more than twice as high in agriculture-dominated landscapes (39%) than in forested landscapes (17%), and brood parasitism frequency was high (33%) but did not differ between landscapes. Edges in agriculture-dominated landscapes can be higher-quality habitats for early-succession birds than edges in forest-dominated landscapes, but our field border treatments did not enhance nest success for these birds on farms in either landscape.

The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system

A new method for assessing forecast skill and predictability that involves the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones has been developed and implemented to obtain detailed information about the prediction of cyclones that cannot be obtained from more conventional analysis methodologies. The cyclones were identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories, and statistics were generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted storms diverge from the analyzed tracks as a function of forecast lead time. The results show a higher level of skill in predicting the position of extratropical cyclones than the intensity. They also show that there is potential to improve the skill in predicting the position by 1 - 1.5 days and the intensity by 2 - 3 days, via improvements to the forecast model. Further analysis shows that forecasted storms move at a slower speed than analyzed storms on average and that there is a larger error in the predicted amplitudes of intense storms than the weaker storms. The results also show that some storms can be predicted up to 3 days before they are identified as an 850-hPa vorticity center in the analyses. In general, the results show a higher level of skill in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH); however, the rapid growth of NH winter storms is not very well predicted. The impact that observations of different types have on the prediction of the extratropical cyclones has also been explored, using forecasts integrated from analyses that were constructed from reduced observing systems. A terrestrial, satellite, and surface-based system were investigated and the results showed that the predictive skill of the terrestrial system was superior to the satellite system in the NH. Further analysis showed that the satellite system was not very good at predicting the growth of the storms. In the SH the terrestrial system has significantly less skill than the satellite system, highlighting the dominance of satellite observations in this hemisphere. The surface system has very poor predictive skill in both hemispheres.

Comparison of the computational cost of a Monte Carlo and deterministic algorithm for computing bilinear forms of matrix powers

In this paper we consider bilinear forms of matrix polynomials and show that these polynomials can be used to construct solutions for the problems of solving systems of linear algebraic equations, matrix inversion and finding extremal eigenvalues. An almost Optimal Monte Carlo (MAO) algorithm for computing bilinear forms of matrix polynomials is presented. Results for the computational costs of a balanced algorithm for computing the bilinear form of a matrix power is presented, i.e., an algorithm for which probability and systematic errors are of the same order, and this is compared with the computational cost for a corresponding deterministic method.

A technique for delivering individualised formative problems and examples

Active learning plays a strong role in mathematics and statistics, and formative problems are vital for developing key problem-solving skills. To keep students engaged and help them master the fundamentals before challenging themselves further, we have developed a system for delivering problems tailored to a student‟s current level of understanding. Specifically, by adapting simple methodology from clinical trials, a framework for delivering existing problems and other illustrative material has been developed, making use of macros in Excel. The problems are assigned a level of difficulty (a „dose‟), and problems are presented to the student in an order depending on their ability, i.e. based on their performance so far on other problems. We demonstrate and discuss the application of the approach with formative examples developed for a first year course on plane coordinate geometry, and also for problems centred on the topic of chi-square tests.

Regulatory reform and productivity change in Indian banking

This paper examines the impact of regulatory reform on productivity growth and its components for Indian banks in 1992-2009. We estimate parametric and non-parametric efficiency frontiers, followed by Divisia and Malmquist indexes of Total Factor Productivity respectively. To account for technology heterogeneity among ownership types we utilise a metafrontier approach. Results are consistent across methodologies and show sustained productivity growth, driven mainly by technological progress. Furthermore, results indicate that different ownership types react differently to changes in the operating environment. The position of foreign banks becomes increasingly dominant and their production technology becomes the best practice in the industry.

Social networks and occupational choice: the endogenous formation of attitudes and beliefs about tax compliance

The paper analyses the emergence of group-specific attitudes and beliefs about tax compliance when individuals interact in a social network. It develops a model in which taxpayers possess a range of individual characteristics – including attitude to risk, potential for success in self-employment, and the weight attached to the social custom for honesty – and make an occupational choice based on these characteristics. Occupations differ in the possibility for evading tax. The social network determines which taxpayers are linked, and information about auditing and compliance is transmitted at meetings between linked taxpayers. Using agent-based simulations, the analysis demonstrates how attitudes and beliefs endogenously emerge that differ across sub-groups of the population. Compliance behaviour is different across occupational groups, and this is reinforced by the development of group-specific attitudes and beliefs. Taxpayers self-select into occupations according to the degree of risk aversion, the subjective probability of audit is sustained above the objective probability, and the weight attached to the social custom differs across occupations. These factors combine to lead to compliance levels that differ across occupations.

Mobile-to-mobile MIMO transmit-receive diversity systems: analysis and performance in three-dimensional double-correlated channels

Mobile-to-mobile (M-to-M) communications are expected to play a crucial role in future wireless systems and networks. In this paper, we consider M-to-M multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) maximal ratio combining system and assess its performance in spatially correlated channels. The analysis assumes double-correlated Rayleigh-and-Lognormal fading channels and is performed in terms of average symbol error probability, outage probability, and ergodic capacity. To obtain the receive and transmit spatial correlation functions needed for the performance analysis, we used a three-dimensional (3D) M-to-M MIMO channel model, which takes into account the effects of fast fading and shadowing. The expressions for the considered metrics are derived as a function of the average signal-to-noise ratio per receive antenna in closed-form and are further approximated using the recursive adaptive Simpson quadrature method. Numerical results are provided to show the effects of system parameters, such as distance between antenna elements, maximum elevation angle of scatterers, orientation angle of antenna array in the x–y plane, angle between the x–y plane and the antenna array orientation, and degree of scattering in the x–y plane, on the system performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis and compensation of I/Q imbalance in MIMO transmit-receive diversity systems

In wireless communication systems, all in-phase and quadrature-phase (I/Q) signal processing receivers face the problem of I/Q imbalance. In this paper, we investigate the effect of I/Q imbalance on the performance of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) maximal ratio combining (MRC) systems that perform the combining at the radio frequency (RF) level, thereby requiring only one RF chain. In order to perform the MIMO MRC, we propose a channel estimation algorithm that accounts for the I/Q imbalance. Moreover, a compensation algorithm for the I/Q imbalance in MIMO MRC systems is proposed, which first employs the least-squares (LS) rule to estimate the coefficients of the channel gain matrix, beamforming and combining weight vectors, and parameters of I/Q imbalance jointly, and then makes use of the received signal together with its conjugation to detect the transmitted signal. The performance of the MIMO MRC system under study is evaluated in terms of average symbol error probability (SEP), outage probability and ergodic capacity, which are derived considering transmission over Rayleigh fading channels. Numerical results are provided and show that the proposed compensation algorithm can efficiently mitigate the effect of I/Q imbalance.